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Doyle3000

Doyle3000
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  • Salesforce.com All Set To Post Robust Numbers [View article]
    Correction: The company is expected to report revenues of $1.44 billion and *fairy tale* earnings of $0.14 per share during the final quarter of its FY 2015

    I think it'll get a jump then settle back down around $57 as well. That's where I was planning to close my most recent short. This has been a good stock to trade.

    Good luck!
    Feb 24, 2015. 03:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: All Is Still Well Down On The Farm [View article]
    good thought DoTheM - I'm sure they'll accrue conservatively with their rebates too.

    for a company known for sandbagging, those guided margins seem extremely high. And trust me I'm happy to read it.

    and again I'm wondering if they mean "46% of our business will have deviated pricing vs. 22% in 2014" vs. what many analysts believe they said which is "GILD is cutting pricing by 46% on Solvaldi/Harvoni".
    Feb 24, 2015. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: All Is Still Well Down On The Farm [View article]
    there is still something odd about their margin guidance being so high that doesn't jive with this 46% price deviation.

    for round numbers, let's say the MSRP was $80,000 per regimen. Now if they had a 22% price deviation out of the gate for launch, let's say that was $65,500 or 22% off list.

    And now they are saying that their ASP (average sell price) is $54,800 (46% off list) yet the margins guide upper 80's to lower 90's? If a sell price of $54,800 garners an 85% margin *(conservative by their guidance)*, we are looking at about $8000.00 cost of sales.

    So the margin at MSRP ($80,000) is 90% and yet the guidance range covers that margin.

    This makes me believe that this discount to net has been miscommunicated in that it's not a price cut, it's just that more product is going out the door at deviated pricing. I don't think their average selling price is $54,800 although I'm sure some customers are paying that. Or maybe less.
    Feb 24, 2015. 09:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Gilead's 2015 Outlook [View article]
    They are still giving guidance for extremely high margins, everyone keeps missing this point. This gross to net is a price mix thing, it does not mean that all of their product is going out the door at 46% off list. But the analysts heard that I think. Unfortunately.
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hep C Franchise Will Remain Key Midterm Driver For Gilead [View article]
    Does anyone know exactly what that 46% deviation means? To me, it means that last year they sold 22% at deviated pricing from list price, and this year they'll sell 46% at deviated pricing from list price.

    I think some analysts heard that their average price was going from 22% off list down to 46% off list. And GILD management made assumptions about what exactly that meant when they talked about the deviations and how the analysts interpreted what they were sayingt. And it helped the stock tank unnecessarily.

    Very long GILD. Sleeping just fine.
    Feb 17, 2015. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: No Reason To Panic Here [View article]
    you may have sold AAPL at its APEX which is good, but you put the proceeds into DEAD MONEY. So now just get used to that dividend. If you're rich, it may not have been a bad trade.
    Feb 13, 2015. 07:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Idiocy Of Gilead's Undervaluation [View article]
    I'm not a fan of that strategy. I'd rather just sell if I think it's had a nice run. And I sell usually via tight calls. I think my success ratio in buying naked puts is about 15%.
    Feb 10, 2015. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Idiocy Of Gilead's Undervaluation [View article]
    So explain AAPL going to $385 then up to current $840? You give Wall St WAAAAAAY too much credit. They know no more than we do. They just dress better.
    Feb 5, 2015. 08:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Idiocy Of Gilead's Undervaluation [View article]
    Can you believe how cheap the $100 January 2017's are? I just bought some for $18.65!!
    Feb 5, 2015. 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Reports: Let's Analyze It [View article]
    Does the conservative investor ever take ownership of stocks other than after a cataclysmic event like 9/11 or Lehmann Bros?
    Feb 5, 2015. 04:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Gilead Beats Estimates, But Guidance Spooks Investors [View article]
    Title should've read

    "Gilead Beats Estimates, But Guidance Spooks weak hands, traders and people who don't understand financials. Investors LOVE the outlook"
    Feb 5, 2015. 12:07 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Idiocy Of Gilead's Undervaluation [View article]
    "If margin erosion occurs, why then would a conservative management provide guidance which shows a gross profit margin range of 87% to 90%? To have this position represents nothing short of analytical laziness."

    this is exactly why GILD tanked. thank you for validating that I am not taking crazy pills and that the analysts focused on looking for the forest could not see it because there were too many trees in the way.

    i'm befuddled and bewildered how the basic math of enormous margins multiplied be a wonderful range of potential volume growth could not equate to a huge cash and profit windfall in 2015 for these analysts. they were so hung up on the 22% discount moving to a 44% discount, and they didn't even understand that!!

    it just meant that more product was going out the door with deviated pricing and I swear they all thought that the pricing was doing to drop by 44%. I really mean that - they didn't get it.

    now here's the question: is it laziness or ineptitude or simply not knowing this business? I think a combination of all 3 and I bought 4 more $100 2017 January LEAPs at a measly $18.65 this morning. What a bunch of morons.
    Feb 5, 2015. 11:33 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Update: Gilead Sciences Beats Estimates Yet Again [View article]
    DTMM - LOVE your comments and respect your opinions but I disagree here. The good ones are 10% and the average ones are 70% and the terrible ones make up 20%.

    There were a few terrible ones on the call last night. Couldn't stop focusing on discounts and couldn't even add up that higher volumes x still wonderful margins x best in market product = huge cash generation for years and years.

    Did they really expect GILD to sell everything at MSRP? And did they really not understand every single answer that GILD provided? It was like listening to kindergarteners who couldn't solve for x in 3x=6.

    I followed AAPL's rise and fall and rise daily for 3 years. Read everything I could because I had a lot of money in AAPL. After living through that I can tell you the vast majority of sell-side analysts cannot see the forest because all the trees are in the way. Or their parent company is way short or way long the stock they are touting.
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:52 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Update: Gilead Sciences Beats Estimates Yet Again [View article]
    did you think it was all going to sell at list price? this is very standard for all manufacturers to have a published price and then a logical set of discounts based on volumes and compliance.

    the analysts were so hung up on the discounts that they couldn't multiply on their calculators the volume x the discounted price. The punch line is that GILD is going to make a MINT on these 2 drugs.

    Analysts last night were busy stepping on $100 bills to pick up their quarters. Couldn't see the forest because all the trees were in the way.
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:44 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Update: Gilead Sciences Beats Estimates Yet Again [View article]
    it's weak hands dumping 100 shares at a time. no professionals would jump out after that earnings call. this is a cash register.
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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