Agree 100% - it's Wall Street's new AAPL and we know how finicky they can be. I bought a January $910 PUT yesterday because I agree with you. Nicely done. Short, sweet and accurate in my opinion.
Google Vs. Apple: Spring Of Hope, Winter Of Despair [View article]
When I read a title like this I'm inclined to short GOOG and long AAPL, so I did. Just bought some January 2014 $910 Puts on GOOG and added to my AAPL long.
It's amazing how the water cooler talk usually precedes major market changes. Remember just a few years ago when everyone was talking about how much their house appraisals were rising?
Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
dk1007 - there were folks like you dancing around during the rise of Enron, WorldCom, HealthSouth and Tyco. If we don't learn from history, it is certain to repeat itself, which it is doing now in 'the cloud'.
If you are taking profits and hedging your bets and get out before the collapse, well done. But the main pattern with people like you is belief that the Emperor's clothes are actually beautiful and therefore when the first mutual fund sees that he's not wearing any (meaning CRM will never ever ever grow into this valuation), the dk1007's usually take massive losses and then hope that the dead cat bounce is the path back to even. And it never is. It just keeps going down, down down into financial hell. Benioff & Company will remain billionaires, but you'll lose most or all of your investment.
More from Gundlach: Not concerned about inflation, he calls TIPS (TIP) "pretty bad" investments and says he'll be a buyer if the 10-year (TLT) yield bounces back to 2% (off 3 bps today to 1.94%). As for the inevitable Apple (AAPL -3.3%) question - he prefers the common stock to the just-issued bonds. Warren Buffett says he prays for stocks he owns to go down in price - it allows him and company repurchase programs to buy at better prices. Is Apple putting money to work the last couple of days? [View news story]
If Apple isn't buying shares at today's prices I'd think they were foolish. This again is a fantastic opportunity pre-June Show and fall launch of new items.
and may I state again that AAPL in the last quarter made more profit dollars (GAAP) than AMZN, CRM, WDAY & N have made in their entire existences. Combined.
Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
Keep up the good fight @Sunil. I agree that they'll continue to manipulate length of contract, etc..to keep everything north of 30% growth.
On the cash flow reconciliation statement, the deferred revenue growth is only 7.8% YOY. Directionally that shows significant slowing of growth rate but if they have been recently closing deals that are 28 months or 36 month contracts then all of that goes out the window. #Cheat2Beat
yeah after AAPL launched the iMac, iPod, iPhone and iPad all in the same year, they really have lost touch. Oh wait, they launched them over a 10 year period, and then everyone and their brother copied their ideas.
Be greedy when idiots write articles like this on SA. Today is a good day to pick up shares.
Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
@Sunil & @Hank - Holy cow you guys are right, I just re-read their annual report. From 2011-2012 their deferred revenue jumped 95% due to changing the billing cycle. In their 2013 March report their deferred revenue grew YOY by 7.8%.
We already are in an apples to apples situation but the mutual funds aren't panicked by this. If 7.8% is the growth they desire then I guess they'll hold. Any logical thought pattern will tell you that deferred revenue shows directionally the future YOY growth of the company.
Apple (AAPL -2.5%) has dived over the last 30 minutes of trading on heavy volume, without any news to explain the move. The decline comes with the NASDAQ still up 0.5% on the day. [View news story]
all the traders need cash to buy NFLX, N, CRM, LNKD & WDAY. They are surfing the Fed wave in an effort to catch the ETFs
Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
Sunil - you believed it was last quarter where the deferred revenue game was up but it's actually this quarter. If it's <30% YOY they'll hide it somehow but the 10Q will have it in there. I think they'll devise some other scheme to keep it >30% somehow but we shall see. This should be the catalyst but I'll believe it when I see it. #Cheat2Beat
Apple: The iPad Faces Unprecedented Competition [View article]
dude stop. as soon as I see your name I could write the article for you. it's all anti-AAPL and pro INTC and MSFT. do you also listen to a 90's radio station also? you seem stuck there.
Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
This quarterly will be very interesting as I've been following their Deferred Revenue Growth for about 3 years and this one should show some slowing; potentially significant slowing. If it shows deferred revenue growth of anything above 30% I will be completely convinced of accounting fraud.
Here's why: A few years ago when P.T. Benioff went on Cramer, the stock had dipped to $94 (about $23.50) on slowing deferred revenue and the Pied Piper was scrambling. He said repeatedly "LOOK AT GUIDANCE" "LOOK AT GUIDANCE" (Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!).
What he had done was switch billing cycles to 2 year vs. 1 year. This made deferred revenue rocket back up. Ex: Contract is $100k per year. Book $25K per quarter and deferred revenue is $75k. Then you pick up another exact same contract for $100K/yr, but with a 2 year booking cycle you book $25k in Q1 and lo and behold, Deferred Revenue is now $175k! What a leap! Wow they are growing like crazy!!
In other words, the monkey threw complete crap on the crowd and they and KissAss Cramer ate it up. This discovery by the way made Cramer lose all of his credibility in my book. I stopped listening to him.
But that trick is over with this announcement. All Deferred Revenue Growth is back to an apples to apples YOY number this quarter. If they are honest, we should see this number well below 30%, which shows that the rocket is losing steam and will eventually have more pedestrian revenue growth rates (which I also believe is fraudelent but that's another article.)
Sadly, I predict that continued financial manipulation occurs and they 'cloud' their true growth once again. The fine print in the 10Q will reveal their newest trick.
Short CRM and also sell PUTs as a hedge which covers my anxiety quite nicely.
Chasing Smartphone Market Share Is A Chump's Game; Why Apple Will Win [View article]
Very well done - thanks. Part of me doesn't want anyone to read these logical articles because I keep buying 10 shares of AAPL every time I get another $4500 in the account. Trying to really ramp up a long term investment here.
One serious note however, Samsung is a real competitor and I've seen a few objective polls saying that people who pay top dollar for smartphones prefer the larger screen. If AAPL keeps their head in the sand about how there's is the perfect size, these numbers will continue to skew and they could realistically blow it. I trust that clear minds understand this in Cupertino and that they just aren't letting the media know about their plans.
Why I Went Short This High-Flying 'Cloud' Stock Today [View article]
OK I'm Scottrade so I'll do that. This is a way better method.
Question: if I buy the deep ITM calls and sell the deep ITM calls at a lower strike, how do you capture any windfall if the thesis plays out? It appears as though it's a very safe trade where you may make a slight premium credit to your account? I'm trying this with N.
How are you making money on the RAX drop with this? Or is this a bear put spread where the PUT you are long is far exceeding the put on the other end?
Why I Went Short This High-Flying 'Cloud' Stock Today [View article]
that is great advice - thanks
my IRA doesn't allow for those unfortunately. I can sell & buy calls and buy naked puts. Annoying. I'll try a bear call spread in my other account though. I have been taken to the woodshed a few times as evil theta erodes the premium much faster than the market realizes a stock is overbought.
Google: Hold And Look To Sell [View article]
Google Vs. Apple: Spring Of Hope, Winter Of Despair [View article]
It's amazing how the water cooler talk usually precedes major market changes. Remember just a few years ago when everyone was talking about how much their house appraisals were rising?
Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
If you are taking profits and hedging your bets and get out before the collapse, well done. But the main pattern with people like you is belief that the Emperor's clothes are actually beautiful and therefore when the first mutual fund sees that he's not wearing any (meaning CRM will never ever ever grow into this valuation), the dk1007's usually take massive losses and then hope that the dead cat bounce is the path back to even. And it never is. It just keeps going down, down down into financial hell. Benioff & Company will remain billionaires, but you'll lose most or all of your investment.
We all know how it ends, Good luck dude.
More from Gundlach: Not concerned about inflation, he calls TIPS (TIP) "pretty bad" investments and says he'll be a buyer if the 10-year (TLT) yield bounces back to 2% (off 3 bps today to 1.94%). As for the inevitable Apple (AAPL -3.3%) question - he prefers the common stock to the just-issued bonds. Warren Buffett says he prays for stocks he owns to go down in price - it allows him and company repurchase programs to buy at better prices. Is Apple putting money to work the last couple of days? [View news story]
and may I state again that AAPL in the last quarter made more profit dollars (GAAP) than AMZN, CRM, WDAY & N have made in their entire existences. Combined.
Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
On the cash flow reconciliation statement, the deferred revenue growth is only 7.8% YOY. Directionally that shows significant slowing of growth rate but if they have been recently closing deals that are 28 months or 36 month contracts then all of that goes out the window.
#Cheat2Beat
Danger Zone For This Week: Apple [View article]
Be greedy when idiots write articles like this on SA. Today is a good day to pick up shares.
Long AAPL as an investor not a trader.
#SACrapFest
Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
We already are in an apples to apples situation but the mutual funds aren't panicked by this. If 7.8% is the growth they desire then I guess they'll hold. Any logical thought pattern will tell you that deferred revenue shows directionally the future YOY growth of the company.
Apple (AAPL -2.5%) has dived over the last 30 minutes of trading on heavy volume, without any news to explain the move. The decline comes with the NASDAQ still up 0.5% on the day. [View news story]
Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
Apple: The iPad Faces Unprecedented Competition [View article]
Apple: The iPad Faces Unprecedented Competition [View article]
Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
Here's why: A few years ago when P.T. Benioff went on Cramer, the stock had dipped to $94 (about $23.50) on slowing deferred revenue and the Pied Piper was scrambling. He said repeatedly "LOOK AT GUIDANCE" "LOOK AT GUIDANCE" (Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!).
What he had done was switch billing cycles to 2 year vs. 1 year. This made deferred revenue rocket back up. Ex: Contract is $100k per year. Book $25K per quarter and deferred revenue is $75k. Then you pick up another exact same contract for $100K/yr, but with a 2 year booking cycle you book $25k in Q1 and lo and behold, Deferred Revenue is now $175k! What a leap! Wow they are growing like crazy!!
In other words, the monkey threw complete crap on the crowd and they and KissAss Cramer ate it up. This discovery by the way made Cramer lose all of his credibility in my book. I stopped listening to him.
But that trick is over with this announcement. All Deferred Revenue Growth is back to an apples to apples YOY number this quarter. If they are honest, we should see this number well below 30%, which shows that the rocket is losing steam and will eventually have more pedestrian revenue growth rates (which I also believe is fraudelent but that's another article.)
Sadly, I predict that continued financial manipulation occurs and they 'cloud' their true growth once again. The fine print in the 10Q will reveal their newest trick.
Short CRM and also sell PUTs as a hedge which covers my anxiety quite nicely.
Chasing Smartphone Market Share Is A Chump's Game; Why Apple Will Win [View article]
One serious note however, Samsung is a real competitor and I've seen a few objective polls saying that people who pay top dollar for smartphones prefer the larger screen. If AAPL keeps their head in the sand about how there's is the perfect size, these numbers will continue to skew and they could realistically blow it. I trust that clear minds understand this in Cupertino and that they just aren't letting the media know about their plans.
Why I Went Short This High-Flying 'Cloud' Stock Today [View article]
Question: if I buy the deep ITM calls and sell the deep ITM calls at a lower strike, how do you capture any windfall if the thesis plays out? It appears as though it's a very safe trade where you may make a slight premium credit to your account? I'm trying this with N.
How are you making money on the RAX drop with this? Or is this a bear put spread where the PUT you are long is far exceeding the put on the other end?
Why I Went Short This High-Flying 'Cloud' Stock Today [View article]
my IRA doesn't allow for those unfortunately. I can sell & buy calls and buy naked puts. Annoying. I'll try a bear call spread in my other account though. I have been taken to the woodshed a few times as evil theta erodes the premium much faster than the market realizes a stock is overbought.