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Doyle3000

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  • What Would A Salesforce.com Acquisition Do To Oracle? [View article]
    I love how every single article I've read states very clearly that MSFT has not entered into any discussions with CRM regarding a buyout and CRM's stock keeps climbing.

    Now it's a self-fulfilling prophecy that MSFT won't buy them because every day would cost them another billion dollars for a company whose free cash flow won't cover half the interest payments on the loan to purchase them.

    Not that I've seen everything but I would be aghast if MSFT was able to convince their board and shareholders to enter into this cataclysmically terrible business decision at this valuation.
    May 6, 2015. 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft And Salesforce: A Potential Marriage Made In Heaven [View article]
    Alex,
    I love your stuff on AAPL but couldn't disagree more on this deal for the following reasons:

    1) CRM shareholders would demand a premium over today's market valuation
    2) MSFT shareholders, especially larger more conservative investors, would leave in droves due to the immediate dilution
    3) CRM management, once they learn that the piggy bank is closed (8% dilution per year to issue stock options) would leave in droves
    4) CRM sales team, once they find themselves in or returning to a Fortune 100 company (and quite comfy from the buyout), would follow the management team out the door
    5) And for the one hundredth time on SA, I will state that CRM's accounting is unethical at best and fraught with Sarbanes-Oxley violations at worst.

    If MSFT buys this company at this valuation, I will be utterly shocked. No one is this stupid. No one.

    Once CRM crashes back down to earth then yes strategically it could make sense for MSFT, ORCL, SAP or IBM. And by crashing back down to earth I mean the market valuation goes to $25bn
    May 4, 2015. 02:31 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why IBM Might Be salesforce.com's Acquirer [View article]
    @vlallen & @ jhesr -

    If you think CSCO has been dead money since the tech crash of 2000 (which it factually has been), a CRM acquisition would lock in that moniker for the next 15 years.

    Benioff is programmed to be excellent at hyping a stock price with 'amazing growth' which would cease immediately once CSCO bought them. Even if CRM's business could sustain 25% growth, the new overall company wouldn't show even double-digit growth. Benioff is not programmed to discuss and create shareholder value with dividends, buybacks, re-orgs, etc... He is only built to orchestrate stock price vis a vis hyperbole and smoke & mirrors cash flow, etc..

    If you hold CSCO, SAP, ORCL or IBM and any of them are foolish enough to buy CRM at this valuation, I'd urge you to dump your shares immediately.
    May 4, 2015. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Not Even Bears Can Spin These Results [View article]
    Some sell side analysts are clueless. Tabloid writers for the financial industry. I bet that guy had a sell on AAPL at $425 too.
    May 2, 2015. 01:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why IBM Might Be salesforce.com's Acquirer [View article]
    No one is buying CRM at this stock price. No one.

    Once the stock re-calibrates down to the price it should be at 25x true GAAP earnings (if it ever gets there); or once the next bear market comes, a buyer can pick up CRM for $30bn or less.

    It would be the apex of stupidity and ineptitude to purchase CRM today. No one is that stupid.
    May 1, 2015. 05:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: Salesforce, SAP discussed alliance, acquisition last year [View news story]
    OK now that it's looking like much to do about nothing, can Mr. Market bring it back down to it's former ridiculous valuation at $68? What hot air is holding this stock up now that SAP and ORCL are out?

    No way Paul Allen and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation nor Warren Buffett's voting shares of IBM would ever pay $50 BILLION++ for a company that has slowing growth, Goodwill making up a huge percentage of its assets, and the proven track record of losing $200mm since 2012.

    If either of them does it, get out forever from MSFT and IBM.

    Am I taking crazy pills?
    May 1, 2015. 05:08 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would A Salesforce.com Acquisition Do To Oracle? [View article]
    I can always count on you to bring a realistic factual rebuttal to the uber-hype of CNBC.

    I don't think anyone materially discussed an acquisition but like all molehills with Salesforce - they turned it into a mountain.

    If I'm wrong and they are acquired, the buyers' stock will be dead money for the next 10 years.
    May 1, 2015. 09:32 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • salesforce.com Is A Leader In Social Responsibility But Improvements Still Needed [View article]
    I would not be surprised to find out that indeed no potential acquirer had reached out to CRM with any meaningful discussions on a takeover.

    And that it may have been somewhat orchestrated as a last hurrah for everyone to sell their shares before the beginning of the end.

    This seems very fishy, even more than their normal m.o. to lift the stock price.

    If I'm wrong and they are purchased, it'll go down in history like Time Warner buying aol.com at the end of the last tech run. And the new Time Warner (MSFT, SAP, ORCL, IBM) will ensure that investment in their stock would be as good or worse than putting your money under your mattress. For fifteen years.
    Apr 30, 2015. 05:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences beats by $0.62, beats on revenue [View news story]
    from your post to the Wall St gods' ears!
    Apr 30, 2015. 04:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Oracle didn't make a bid for Salesforce [View news story]
    Peter,
    I found it very interesting in the options market that OTM strikes were still pricing as if the stock could crater over the next day.

    The $64 PUTS expiring tomorrow should've been absolutely worthless yesterday after the spike, yet they are still trading at $0.09 or $9 per contract.

    And there's absolutely no movement in the options market for any strike or any month. It's as if CRM's stock is forever stuck in time. No premiums, no discounts. All options, no matter how far out, are priced as if the stock won't move up or down.
    Apr 30, 2015. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce reportedly approached by potential buyer; shares +15.4% [View news story]
    how do you know this? everything I've read says that sales and sales management have nice stock option packages.
    Apr 30, 2015. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce reportedly approached by potential buyer; shares +15.4% [View news story]
    I know right? I was thinking about this all night. So to your point with the pricey stock (the mother's milk of CRM) - how would they keep their sales force?

    If I'm a highly compensated CRM salesperson and 40% of my compensation was stock options, how does that continue at MSFT? They're going to fold them into the MSFT/IBM/SAP program and those companies don't dilute the living hell out of their organization every quarter by issuing shares.

    That type of salesperson dreads working for a Fortune 100 culture, they'll jump to WDAY, DATA, N, etc.. quickly; exacerbating the growth decline.

    I mean this could be an absolute nightmare for the buyer.
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce reportedly approached by potential buyer; shares +15.4% [View news story]
    RW - I think he means if MSFT or ORCL buys CRM it would be like HPQ buying Autonomy i.e. a horrible acquisition that haunts them for years.
    Apr 29, 2015. 04:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce reportedly approached by potential buyer; shares +15.4% [View news story]
    Who on god's green earth would pay $51b PLUS premium for a company that has lost hundreds of millions of dollars over the last several years?

    Surely these tech titans have accountants. Or will the buyer become the next HPQ as they make enormous acquisitions that only hinder their future profit growth?

    Just wait until the stock crashes fellas. You can buy this at $25b in a few years.
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:07 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead - What Could Possibly Go Wrong This Time? [View article]
    Like AAPL, it'll be 'dead money' and a company that 'can't sustain future earnings' and is a 'one trick pony' until all of a sudden it's a 'great stock' that is 'unbelievably cheap' and 'everyone needs to be in it'.

    for AAPL it did happen after an earnings call when they announced the dividend, the stock split and that their margins rose a little. oh and that they were buying back $50bn in stock.

    i'm hoping the investor services team at GILD was watching because they could easily do the same thing. i'm counting on their gang to announce an increase in share buyback going forward and for the stock price to slowly creep up for the remainder of the year
    Apr 29, 2015. 10:55 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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