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Doyle3000

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  • 4 Reasons I'm Adding Gilead To My Healthcare Holdings [View article]
    OK you go all in with MRK and I'll go all in with GILD and let's talk in 10 years and see how we did. Oh that's not what you're saying? It sounds like you're saying they are equally valued given future cash flows. I whole-heartedly disagree.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Buy On The Drop? [View article]
    I read that the EU isn't allowed to do exclusive deals so both would be offered. This is good for both companies actually and is probably what would've made both companies the most money here as well. Can't understand the short-sightedness of ABBV selling on price.
    Dec 23, 2014. 05:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is The Devil? Will Gilead Fall Or Soar In 2015? [View article]
    The inevitable "Unnecessary and avoidable" patient side-effect litigation will move this along.

    I can see the commercials now:

    "Were you forced to use Viekira Pak by Express Scripts from January 2014 through current date? Did you suffer any side-effects including but not limited to anemia? If so you may be entitled to significant cash rewards! Please call the 800 number below today for a free consultation!"
    Dec 23, 2014. 02:24 PM | 34 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is The Devil? Will Gilead Fall Or Soar In 2015? [View article]
    None of these facts below have changed over the last 2 days. GILD is the cheapest large cap in the S & P. Name a cheaper one and I'll buy heavy in that one too!!

    "This year, only 150,000 patients were treated in the US out of over 3 million patients with HCV. The main reason is cost. On a conservative note if budgets were held constant, twice as many patients are cured which still represents HCV drugs being relevant for over a decade in the US without any new patients which is highly unlikely. Also remember, Gilead is not just an HCV company. Gilead has expanding revenue year-over-year in HIV and other disease areas and is building a robust pipeline in cancer, other liver diseases such as NASH, and cardiovascular disease. In 2015, the estimate for Harvoni sales is still in the $10B+ range with a high percentage of profit. Do not forget that Gilead has already provided different payers with special discounts such as a 23% discount on Sovaldi for US government health plans and most recently a 41% discount for Veterans, making the price ranges $48k-$72k or $37k-$56k, respectively. Even at these rates, the return on investment for Gilead is huge."
    Dec 23, 2014. 02:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - Is Competition Killing Gilead? (12/22/14) [View article]
    I love how Cramer pounds the table all year long about The Four Horseman of Biotech (REGN, BIIB, CELG & GILD) and all of a sudden this odd thing comes out of nowhere called 'competition' and it's all bad for these stocks and you shouldn't buy them now.

    How can anyone ever listen to this entertainer and direct their hard-earned money based on his whims? This is horribly positioned as financial advice but he has no idea what these stocks are going to do.
    Dec 23, 2014. 01:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Buy On The Drop? [View article]
    Hat-trick3 - if you sold at a loss, you are what the street calls "the weak hands" and you were flushed out. Now if you do buy in at a lower price then they'll put you in a category called "value buyer" which sounds much nicer.
    Dec 23, 2014. 11:26 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: What's Ahead In 2015 For This Biotech Juggernaut [View article]
    totally agree. now that Express Scripts has gone 'all in' with an inferior hand (and the whole world knows it's inferior because these articles are all over the place), GILD can now sit back with their Royal Flush and say "OK, I know that 25%-40% of your patients will eventually need Harvoni either up front because they fit an exception category or post-ABBV because the side effects were too severe." And word will spread very quickly.

    And GILD will say "OK Express Scripts, you can either pay full price for these exceptions or we can talk turkey about a price to get us back on the formulary".

    ESRX is bluffing.

    They did it with Walgreen's too. But ultimately the markets of supply and demand balance out. Now if ESRX had just never taken on ABBV I think they could've eventually worked with GILD for a nice discount and everyone could've won. Who knows, maybe ESRX tried that and never got the price they wanted.
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: What's Ahead In 2015 For This Biotech Juggernaut [View article]
    M - it's just a paper loss. Hold on. Making money is never that easy. This stock is by far the cheapest large cap in the market, and every dollar it drops makes it more of a bargain.

    Be greedy when others are fearful. These comments are full of fear and panic. We are seeing capitulation today as human nature takes over and people keep buying high and selling low.

    Be ok with your red numbers. It isn't a loss until you sell. DO NOT SELL.

    Everything you've said about Harvoni and Sovaldi are still true. And Express Scripts knows that eventually they'll have to reimburse for these. Maybe immediately if the doctors and patience start refusing the Abbvie treatment for whatever exception they choose. Express Scripts is using a hardball tactic against a superior player. This usually doesn't play out well.
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: What's Ahead In 2015 For This Biotech Juggernaut [View article]
    too many old people on too many drugs has contributed to the Medicare issues, but the bigger villain is our 'reimburse for drugs and services and hospitalization' formula when it should be 'reimburse for prevention and wellness'. On top of that, we spend an inordinate amount of financial resources on the last 30 days of most people's lives.

    We keep fighting for some reason instead of just paying for comfortable home hospice and morphine, which is what most dying people would want anyway.
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: What's Ahead In 2015 For This Biotech Juggernaut [View article]
    stockdaddy the thought of that makes me shiver having gone through it.

    However here are some differences - GILD, even at $116, always had a very conservative P/E and PEG ratio. They are still in their profit growth mode. AAPL on the other hand had run up to $700 and then had several quarters where their profit growth slowed and ultimately started retreating. And Jobs had died. And Samsung had something they didn't (large screens & LeBron commercials)

    GILD, if they are smart, and they are, is probably buying stock as fast as humanly possible and is already calculating how much buyback they are going to announce at Q1 earnings.

    So Q1 earnings will be HUGE (I can hear every Hep C patient busting down doors until the 31st to get their Harvoni scripts before Jan 1) and these record earnings will be guided very conservatively forward with Europe and Japan ramping up. AND they'll announce one of the largest buybacks in history (after AAPL coincidentally) and this will make people realize that the stock is still the cheapest large cap in the S&P.

    So yes it'll wallow or drift down until then, but they'll have quite a fireworks display at Q1 announcement.
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Buy On The Drop? [View article]
    "This deal will definitely help ABBV gain market share, but in the big picture it will not disrupt the massive amount of revenue GILD receives from its hepatitis C offerings. The volume of sales ABBV receives from the deal with Express Scripts won't challenge GILD's sales volume"

    I'm very long GILD but I don't see how you can justify this paragraph you wrote? How can it not disrupt revenue and sales volumes? Express Scripts is the largest payer in the US? And you know they are trying the same deals with every other payer in the world? You don't think GILD will have to drop pricing eventually?

    Luckily I agree that this was all baked into the price at $100 anyway so this is gravy to pick up shares below $100. Wonderful buying opportunity today.
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Slaying The Last Dragons Of Doubt? [View article]
    GILD is held by a ton of retail investors who spook easily and react to noise. This was a lot of scare this morning. But once the dust settles GILD will still be a cash generating giant that is under-valued.

    I've already bought more shares and calls
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Beat The Market - My Best Large-Cap Stock Portfolio: Gilead Sciences [View article]
    The author is really going to look good for anyone just reading this now and buying GILD at $95. It will certainly beat the S&P in 2015 at these levels!
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: What's Ahead In 2015 For This Biotech Juggernaut [View article]
    said the person who never suffered the side effects knowing that a superior treatment was available
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Stands Alone [View article]
    If I were GILD I'd keep my list price on Express Scripts and for every exception that Express Scripts had to honor, they could have the privilege of paying MSRP. I call it a Karma tax.

    The science doesn't lie -> GILD is a superior treatment with higher cure rates and less side affects. There will be significant need for the exception process. And a lot of powerful doctors are going to push Express Scripts hard to make a deal with GILD allowing it back in. Only then will GILD talk about price.
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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