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Doyle3000

Doyle3000
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  • Insiders, Outsiders Option Exercises Critical For Salesforce Cash Flow [View article]
    Nice - but again, until the Fed stops printing money, this show will go on.

    Luckily I have the patience of Job (not the guy from Arrested Development, the guy from the Bible). As odd as it sounds, I almost enjoy when it spikes on fairy tale earnings* day because it lets me add another 100 shares to the short and brings up my value per share. By the time it crashes, my short 'per share' may be $65 and it could crash at $70 and that's all the more it'll fall down to $24 (or lower if the SEC gets more involved)

    *Trademark Paulo Santos
    Dec 3, 2013. 12:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No bid for mortgage REITS as yields rise [View news story]
    dumping all mREITS today is the worst possible time to sell. you'd be locking in maximum losses. it's like liquidating your 401K when the DOW was at 6600 a few years ago. just wait for the pricing to head back towards BV. in the meantime, collect the dividends and if you want to sell calls that provides padding too. it's easy if you've never done it.
    Dec 3, 2013. 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No bid for mortgage REITS as yields rise [View news story]
    but you're selling the stock at 20% below it's actual cash value. These are highly liquid assets. it's just not smart to sell your dollars for $0.80 because your psyche can't take the red!
    Dec 3, 2013. 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographics, Manias And The Short Case For Apple Explained [View article]
    Michael,
    You write very well and I enjoy it. But man would I be careful being short AAPL for the next few months. I'd start the short the week after their January earnings when it's probably above $600. This other SA announcement came out this morning. Beware the big money!

    China Mobile subsidiary temporarily takes iPhone orders • 10:04 AM
    • Fortune reports the website of a China Mobile (CHL +0.3%) subsidiary for the city of Suzhou (located near Shanghai) began taking iPhone 5S (AAPL +1.6%) and 5C pre-orders last night, before halting its efforts today.
    • The (premature?) reservation activity follows multiple reports indicating China Mobile, the world's largest carrier in terms of subscribers (750M+), will announce it will begin offering the iPhone at its Dec. 18 4G launch event.
    • Kantar Worldpanel recently estimated the iPhone had a 15.5% smartphone share (-340 bps Y/Y) in "Urban China" for the August-October timeframe. That compares with a U.S. share of 52.6% (+490 bps), an EU5 share of 15.8% (-500 bps), and a Japanese share of 61.1% (no year-ago data).
    Dec 3, 2013. 10:55 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - Hey, Hey, Ho, Ho, John Chambers Has To Go (12/2/13) [View article]
    And I've been saying that Chambers is a flat-out bad CEO for 5 years now. It is ridiculous how that Board of Directors allows that complete ineptitude to continue. SO glad I sold every share I had a few years back. DEAD MONEY. POS CEO!
    Dec 3, 2013. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Not Out Of The Woods Yet [View article]
    AAPL is now almost like owning KMB, KO, MSFT unfortunately so I don't see much downside but I don't see a whole lot of upside either. As a matter of fact I wish it would trade for the same P/E as Kimberly-Clark, then I'd be in great shape! It's going to be very difficult to grow revenues faster than AMZN, CRM, etc.. and all Wall Street wants is top line growth.

    If the market turns to run for safety, AAPL will be very popular.
    Dec 2, 2013. 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No bid for mortgage REITS as yields rise [View news story]
    this is retail income investors capitulating. we all know the taper is coming.....doesn't anyone think that a 20% discount to BV already prices that in? no wonder the average investor is terrible at making money; they truly do buy high and sell low.

    and the beauty of these stocks is that they pay you double digit dividends to ride the storm out
    Dec 2, 2013. 03:53 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday - Strong Third Quarter, Still Does Not Justify This Valuation [View article]
    If this ride is anything like N or CRM your short is going to be in for a long painful ride, even though everything you say above is correct. But it is so high priced currently that even a mild correction could put you in the money. The beauty of these high flyers is that the options premiums are so rich. You can sell PUTS at your desired price and make nice money while you wait for the price to come back to earth.

    Short CRM, long WDAY but I sell covered calls on the position and it's been a winning formula so far. My risk is a total collapse of the 'cloud' market but I don't see that happening any time soon, even though they are are ridiculously valued and won't ever grow into these valuations.
    Dec 1, 2013. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eve Of Inflection [View article]
    George,
    Always a good read. So as we approach the end of 2013, would you consider writing an article on how the covered call strategy worked for you in the raging bull market? I would think that the S&P and DOW beat 90% of investors this year. (beat me like a dirty rug)

    But my interest would be that if you possibly made 15% this year one could argue that you could easily duplicate that in 2014 and thereby your long term strategy is safer and ultimately better than riding Mr. Market through the QE Unicorn Fields.
    Dec 1, 2013. 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple May Earn $46 Billion In Annual Profit From TV By 2020 [View article]
    Love this. Good article.

    I'm wondering if it would be anything at all like the TVs we have now. I'm thinking iPad thin, maybe just a sheet of glass?

    and of course the experience would be not ever needing to watch a commercial again, not needing to memorize which channels were which, and best of all not paying for bundling of channels that you never watch (Comcast).

    But I'm thinking they'd sell them for $5000, not $2130
    Nov 30, 2013. 06:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Says Grow First, Profit Later [View article]
    Good point once the stock collapses it'll be easy pickins for Oracle, MSFT, SAP or IBM. That is the most likely path.
    Nov 30, 2013. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These 2 Stocks With Yields Of 12% Or More Are Poised For A January Rally [View article]
    i agree, it's amazing to see how people capitulate on a stock and sell at its lowest point, even if they were being paid to wait for the rebound back to BV. it's the reason that most humans are bad investors. this is the time to be buying well run mREITS like NLY and AGNC.

    I may add some EROC also. Good calls here. Thanks
    Nov 29, 2013. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce gives Benioff $29M in options, salary hike [View news story]
    Interesting it was only a year or so ago that Benioff was 10% owner of all outstanding shares. Down to 7.2% is a significant sign of dilution unless he sold a massive amount.

    I hate to say this but I give him kudos for not being too greedy with his salary and bonus given how much wealth he has created for the shareholders over the last 13 years.

    It's still a fraud valuation though.
    Nov 29, 2013. 03:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Case on Salesforce - Risk Not Priced Into Stock [View article]
    Can you believe the crazy 7 year run this farce of a stock has been on? Wow
    Nov 28, 2013. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce's On Fire: So Why Am I Short Its Stock? [View article]
    it's so depressing to see that Benioff has been fooling so many people for so long. the timing of their rise is incredible as the Fed has been printing free money for Wall St for almost 6 years now and Benioff rode the wave to extreme wealth. Of course all these years after you wrote your article they still lose money every single quarter so they can pay themselves ridiculous amounts of money.
    Nov 28, 2013. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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