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Doyle3000

Doyle3000
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  • It's A New Day [View article]
    GTS - you could sell PUTS on CAT at a price where you'd gladly re-enter. Those premiums are nice given the earnings are on their way.
    Dec 23, 2013. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A New Day [View article]
    George,
    Several mentions of technical indications. Is this relatively new for you or have I not been paying attention?

    Also, like WLT, I'm getting great options premiums from the 'cloud' stocks. Any day there's a big dip in VEEV, MKTO, WDAY, etc..it seems like selling a tight covered call will 'hit' for capital appreciation and stock getting called. It's been fun but I know it'll not end well once the cloud bubble bursts. None of these companies are worth their stock price.
    Dec 22, 2013. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: All Systems Go For 2014 [View article]
    Bret - all points valid and strong. I'm way long AAPL and lament my 2013 returns on it. I fear that the stock is now out of favor as a growth stock even if it starts to show growth.

    I like owning a piece of the profits in this excellent company but once this hits $650 I'm out maybe unless it drops back below $500. I've never seen such irrational selling in all my life as I did when AAPL hit $385. It was very unnerving and shook my foundation of beliefs in the stock market.
    Dec 22, 2013. 10:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard: A Top 2014 Tech Stock [View article]
    Wow are you going to be disappointed. This company, like CSCO, INTC, MSFT, IBM and all the other tech titans of yesteryear, are dead money. You own them for the dividend and the relative safety of their FCF.
    Dec 20, 2013. 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset above book value - short target? [View news story]
    I believe the BV will slowly rise as the short term rates stay near 0% and the longer term rates steadily climb with the taper here
    Dec 20, 2013. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Salesforce.com [View article]
    "Profit is irrelevant, you have to understand the business"

    this sums up why we just won't agree here. continued good luck.
    Dec 20, 2013. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Salesforce.com [View article]
    agree to disagree here. I think CRM can go to $3 or lower due to incredibly shady accounting and growing exposure to people like Jim Chanos who point out how much of their assets are goodwill.

    with VEEV actually making a profit, I think it has less downside.I'd guess 90%+ downside for CRM vs. $50% downside for VEEV.

    good luck with your trades. we shall see how things play out
    Dec 20, 2013. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG's Turnaround Story Not Likely To End Soon [View article]
    Does anyone know their current book value? Would've been a strong point for the author to make vs. today's current price!
    Dec 20, 2013. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust I About To Drop By 50% [View article]
    same happened to me, I had purchased the $5 Dec Puts about 6 months ago and am astonished that they are going to expire near worthless. You've think you've seen everything.....
    Dec 19, 2013. 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders, Outsiders Option Exercises Critical For Salesforce Cash Flow [View article]
    RW, you're trying to talk a priest into the rights of women to choose to get an abortion. It's not going to sink in.
    Dec 19, 2013. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Salesforce.com [View article]
    do you really think CRM has earning power? serious question

    If they slow the Sales and Marketing and R&D spending, I truly believe the growth will slow precipitously, sending the stock down to levels that would halt the stock option transactions. This in turn would halt their cash flow and it would cycle down continuously. They do not make earnings now with a rock steady top line growth rate. (which I feel is fudged with S&M accounting tricks anyway)

    but you're right, not a good comparison because VEEV actually makes a GAAP profit.
    Dec 19, 2013. 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Salesforce.com [View article]
    Of note, one of the cloud plays that uses CRM's 'force' platform is called VEEV and they are already profitable, which I think could unobscure just how profitable these cloud plays can be. And the answer is 'not wildly'. Don't know if it's coincidence or a big seller but VEEV's share price has been tanking.

    So it benefits CRM to continually have the promise of future earnings, because, like VEEV, if they actually show the profit they can make, everyone will see that the Wizard of Oz was the tiny man behind the curtain.
    Dec 18, 2013. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Valuation Of Google, Inc. [View article]
    I think GOOG is experiencing the phenomena that AAPL underwent over the last several years as the Wall Street Growth Stock Darling. It was incredible to watch all the big money pull out of AAPL when the growth slowed and pile into GOOG.

    I believe that these stocks have their own universe that they play in and that no Graham evaluation matters. If GOOG shows signs of slowing growth, the mutual funds will exit quickly and the stock will plummet. I would not be long GOOG right now as they seem priced to perfection.
    Dec 17, 2013. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders, Outsiders Option Exercises Critical For Salesforce Cash Flow [View article]
    It's dilution but it's also a solid fact that if you are own CRM stock, you are not investing in a portion of the profits of the company, you are enriching the management team. And if your position doesn't net you a paper gain every single year you are losing.

    For example in 2013 you took a huge risk for a return below the SPY ETF.

    And this is BEFORE the inevitable crash!
    Dec 17, 2013. 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Hedge Funds Are Buying Twitter Right Now [View article]
    having followed other ridiculously valued stocks, some for many many years, I can tell you that TWTR will go way way way higher before it collapses. big money in 'growth stocks' will stay in love with their revenue growth for YEARS. do not short this stock. do not buy puts on this stock.

    for a history lesson, see CRM
    Dec 15, 2013. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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