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Doyle3000

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  • Gilead's Predicament: Revenue And Earnings Are Unsustainable [View article]
    "Being patient and disciplined will make for a much stronger company in the decades to come. Investors will also need to be patient"

    es verdad

    I also see a macro change occurring when interest rates begin to finally rise and profits actually matter again.

    there are myriad "growth" mutual funds out there that will have to find somewhere for their money; and they'll have to seek out companies like AAPL and GILD who actually make GAAP profit.

    the cloud companies that everyone is behind do not make GAAP profit and there will be a major run out of those growth stocks into stocks like GILD.

    these events may happen concurrently over the next 24 months and combined with GILD buying up shares and paying larger and larger dividends, should lead to a 50% increase of the stock price from here by 2018.

    great long term holding - can't think of a better one
    Apr 28, 2015. 04:22 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    and that is called HPQ. that is the opposite of easy as I think the options market got that one wrong too. I have 400 shares at $37 that I'd rather not have clogging up $15k of cash.

    but honestly I think you are spot on with the 1% returns most of the time. i'm surprised when an HPQ happens.
    Apr 28, 2015. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    George,
    Thanks for MSFT last week. Easy 1.7% return with the 5-day covered call and $42.50 strike. Very interesting that since it surged I thought about rolling the call out to make a little more money or to get a higher strike, but neither paid anything. It was as if the options market was saying "this was your only ride, please depart to the right and watch your step exiting"

    And at the end of the day, it was easy and a nice return. So I got off.
    Apr 27, 2015. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech Beat: Amgen And Gilead News [View article]
    I'd worry more at Abbvie vs. GILD since MRK is an easier regiment than the V-Pak. Also I think the higher GILD cure rate is statistically significant.
    Apr 24, 2015. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Serious Cash Means An Acquisition Could Be Coming Soon [View article]
    Short term naked options are like betting on an NFL game. Way too much risk for your hard-earned $1525.00. Your tag line should be GAMBLA not Inve$tor :)

    Better to inve$t that $1525 into a GILD $100 strike call expiring January 2017 call (LEAP). That allows the market to finally absorb that this stock is cheap. It could be up to $135 by then or higher. Much better way to inve$t.
    Apr 23, 2015. 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Amazon Do To Groceries What It Did To Books? [View article]
    Plus no parking lot nightmare like Costco has!
    Apr 23, 2015. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kimberly-Clark Reports First Quarter Earnings Next Week, And Here Are My Thoughts [View article]
    we'd comment if we knew what you were talking about
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Serious Cash Means An Acquisition Could Be Coming Soon [View article]
    stock price doesn't have much to do with acquisition price
    Apr 22, 2015. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Serious Cash Means An Acquisition Could Be Coming Soon [View article]
    this is a very interesting story because this London trader was not implicated at all by the SEC in their final report. They had pegged a firm in Kansas. There's something fishy in Denmark!

    And because the European regulating body has a completely different story than the SEC we still have quite a ways to go before we know the whole truth.

    And it sounds like a company installing an inept (not necessarily evil) trading algorithm into their trades is still not illegal so can be repeated i.e. another flash crash can happen.
    Apr 22, 2015. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Amazon Do To Groceries What It Did To Books? [View article]
    great article - good statistics. Everyone seems to ignore that Amazon is really only going after the 40mm-60mm prime members who no doubt are middle income and higher households. They aren't trying to beat Dollar General, they are trying to capture some Costco, Publix, Safeway, Wegman's dollars.
    Apr 21, 2015. 09:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Serious Cash Means An Acquisition Could Be Coming Soon [View article]
    But don't you all remember how Samsung's phones were going to make Apple absolutely have to cut the pricing on their phones? I can think of so many SA articles actually recommending to Apple that they'd do well to drop prices on their phones.

    I also remember several articles and talking heads on CNBC saying that the iPhone (after the 4 launch) was Apple's "one hit wonder" and that's not enough to be in the stock. That was all through the $500s and $400s down to an incredible $385.

    Lesson: People don't know crap about good companies. They really don't.
    Apr 20, 2015. 04:19 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kimberly-Clark Reports First Quarter Earnings Next Week, And Here Are My Thoughts [View article]
    Ben T. Watson - thank you for your service. This is the perfect stock for you.

    But if someone is in their 30s out there, this is not where you want to be. The secular rise of private label paper and diapers, combined with KMBs unsustainable culture of cost-savings-to-manage earnings... will not bode well over the long haul. I think the top was in at $117 and it may not hit there again for the next 10 years. It's actually trading a little rich at its current price.
    Apr 17, 2015. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Is A Cash Generation Monster [View article]
    worked wonders for AAPL
    Apr 16, 2015. 02:25 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Is A Cash Generation Monster [View article]
    well done - great long term holding
    Apr 16, 2015. 12:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • salesforce.com Is A Leader In Social Responsibility But Improvements Still Needed [View article]
    "In the case of salesforce, the company has been recognized in many years as one of the World's Most Ethical Companies by Ethisphere. Ethisphere looks at companies that think similarly and push the envelope of what corporate ethics means and push for leadership in this area"

    Their ethics are a complete dichotomy.

    I admire their outspoken leader not holding back opinions re: Indiana etc... and they are philanthropic and their leader also calls on others to join in the giving. All very noble and I applaud it.

    But from an accounting standpoint, they do absolutely everything they can to obfuscate their true financial picture, which is not pretty. They are enriching themselves via stock options at an obnoxious rate and then not counting those tens of millions of dollars as an ongoing expense, rather treating them as non-recurring expenses. All to trick the investor into thinking that their model will generate nice profits one day.

    When, not if, this stock recalibrates to the true profit that it can deliver for its shareholders, there will be class action lawsuits. These suits will point to them "willingly and knowingly" obscuring their true situation re: deferred revenues, cash flows and again, generally accepted accounting principles; leaving the poor plaintiffs with massive losses when profits matter again someday.

    Because the latter outweighs the former, I am short CRM.
    Apr 15, 2015. 02:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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