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Doyle3000

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  • Salesforce Becomes Fastest Enterprise Software Company To Reach $5 Billion [View article]
    SFWatcher - so do you see what you are saying?

    "The matching of Deferred expenses only relates to those which are directly attributable to the cost of deferred revenues."

    We agree. But what I'm trying to get you to see is that those expenses will always be greater than the revenues i.e. GAAP losses. No profit. Bad.

    They all relate - no expenses are going down. I've been watching for 5 years now. It's the same formula for the last 20 quarters.

    Which expenses are going to drop off so precipitously that they earn actual profit? You know they're not going to stop enriching themselves with stock options.
    Mar 3, 2015. 08:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bristol Myers' HCV Cocktail Has Gilead, AbbVie In Its Crosshairs [View article]
    The BMS drug only works with GILD's Sovaldi. And it's only for 6% of the market. So your argument is that GILD will actually LOCK UP that 6% with or without BMS.

    I don't understand this article
    Mar 2, 2015. 11:13 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Could Do With Less Transparency [View article]
    George,
    When you say that sometimes you prefer to wait until after earnings to sell a PUT, doesn't that take all the juicy premiums out? Or do you find that the options market still registers volatility after an earnings announcement?

    Although I'd rather be selling PUTS on HPQ today vs. last week. I find myself in ownership of a few hundred shares because not only did HPQ tank, but the shares were put on me on Thursday morning. And now I found absolutely wimpy premiums trying to sell calls against the position. As if the market feels that no rebound is in sight.

    It's going to take me a few months to get back to even at this rate, which killed all the joy of the quick return.

    Annoyed in Atlanta
    Mar 1, 2015. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Becomes Fastest Enterprise Software Company To Reach $5 Billion [View article]
    Don't forget that deferred revenue is matched with deferred expenses each quarter i.e. their model will never make a GAAP profit. It's not when, it's if. And the answer is 'probably after SAP buys them at $30 per share in a few years"
    Mar 1, 2015. 01:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com All Set To Post Robust Numbers [View article]
    Wow that after hours jump stuck all session. kind of surprised. one theory is that a lot of money that has to stay in tech left HPQ the same day and was just plowed into another tech that evening. makes some sense. It certainly wasn't because of profitability
    Feb 26, 2015. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: A Story With An Unhappy Ending [View article]
    it all goes back to "don't fight the Fed" and Yellen just delayed the interest rate increase for maybe the rest of the year.

    these moves by the States and WalMart etc.. to slowly rise wages will filter up into all wages. and oil supply and demand will re-balance and oil will rise again. once both of these happen, we'll see some inflation (finally) and Yellen will start creeping up the rates.

    if I were long CRM I'd party hard these next 2 quarters then sell everything
    Feb 26, 2015. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce soars to $68 on in-line results, better-than-feared guidance [View news story]
    there are several different lengths of contracts that they sell. when deferred slowed one year and the stock took a hit, they started selling two year contracts. made deferred really jump.
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce soars to $68 on in-line results, better-than-feared guidance [View news story]
    I'd sell on this lift for sure. it'll settle back down to the high 50's before next quarterly call. And interest rates will eventually go up although I've been saying that for over a year now.
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce soars to $68 on in-line results, better-than-feared guidance [View news story]
    Did any sell side analyst calculate GAAP loss per share multiplied by the number of outstanding shares?

    The number (GAAP Loss) is staggering. I'm roughly calculating about a $275,000,000.00 GAAP loss for their fiscal year. That's 275 MILLION DOLLARS in GAAP Losses on $5bn in revenues.

    They are selling $1 bills for $1.05 and then paying themselves $0.10 per sale in stock-based compensation (but not counting that expense)
    Feb 25, 2015. 04:52 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Competition In Cloud May Temper Salesforce's Revenue Growth In Q4 [View article]
    I'll take $55 all day tomorrow
    Feb 24, 2015. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com All Set To Post Robust Numbers [View article]
    Correction: The company is expected to report revenues of $1.44 billion and *fairy tale* earnings of $0.14 per share during the final quarter of its FY 2015

    I think it'll get a jump then settle back down around $57 as well. That's where I was planning to close my most recent short. This has been a good stock to trade.

    Good luck!
    Feb 24, 2015. 03:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: All Is Still Well Down On The Farm [View article]
    good thought DoTheM - I'm sure they'll accrue conservatively with their rebates too.

    for a company known for sandbagging, those guided margins seem extremely high. And trust me I'm happy to read it.

    and again I'm wondering if they mean "46% of our business will have deviated pricing vs. 22% in 2014" vs. what many analysts believe they said which is "GILD is cutting pricing by 46% on Solvaldi/Harvoni".
    Feb 24, 2015. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: All Is Still Well Down On The Farm [View article]
    there is still something odd about their margin guidance being so high that doesn't jive with this 46% price deviation.

    for round numbers, let's say the MSRP was $80,000 per regimen. Now if they had a 22% price deviation out of the gate for launch, let's say that was $65,500 or 22% off list.

    And now they are saying that their ASP (average sell price) is $54,800 (46% off list) yet the margins guide upper 80's to lower 90's? If a sell price of $54,800 garners an 85% margin *(conservative by their guidance)*, we are looking at about $8000.00 cost of sales.

    So the margin at MSRP ($80,000) is 90% and yet the guidance range covers that margin.

    This makes me believe that this discount to net has been miscommunicated in that it's not a price cut, it's just that more product is going out the door at deviated pricing. I don't think their average selling price is $54,800 although I'm sure some customers are paying that. Or maybe less.
    Feb 24, 2015. 09:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Gilead's 2015 Outlook [View article]
    They are still giving guidance for extremely high margins, everyone keeps missing this point. This gross to net is a price mix thing, it does not mean that all of their product is going out the door at 46% off list. But the analysts heard that I think. Unfortunately.
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hep C Franchise Will Remain Key Midterm Driver For Gilead [View article]
    Does anyone know exactly what that 46% deviation means? To me, it means that last year they sold 22% at deviated pricing from list price, and this year they'll sell 46% at deviated pricing from list price.

    I think some analysts heard that their average price was going from 22% off list down to 46% off list. And GILD management made assumptions about what exactly that meant when they talked about the deviations and how the analysts interpreted what they were sayingt. And it helped the stock tank unnecessarily.

    Very long GILD. Sleeping just fine.
    Feb 17, 2015. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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