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Doyle3000

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  • Salesforce (CRM) announces a $1B offering of convertible senior notes due 2018. The company says it will use the proceeds for "general corporate purposes," possibly including acquisition. The announcement comes less than 2 weeks after Marc Benioff promised Salesforce will be aggressive on the M&A front. Salesforce had $521M in convertible debt as of Jan. 31, and $1.77B in cash and investments. [View news story]
    Chris - there is a Grand Canyon difference between a company making great products and a company who can make profit. No one disputes the cool factor of SaaS and mobile apps. Our enormous concern is that the stock price is a house of cards because they have to spend enormous amounts of money to keep the growth going and they've passed the point of diminishing returns.
    Mar 12, 2013. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce (CRM) announces a $1B offering of convertible senior notes due 2018. The company says it will use the proceeds for "general corporate purposes," possibly including acquisition. The announcement comes less than 2 weeks after Marc Benioff promised Salesforce will be aggressive on the M&A front. Salesforce had $521M in convertible debt as of Jan. 31, and $1.77B in cash and investments. [View news story]
    Wait, a company that has shown "amazing" growth for 64 quarters now and has "extraordinary cash flow" has to borrow for acquisitions?

    Could it be that most of their incredible cash flow growth is from stock options and manipulations in working capital?

    Could "general corporate purposes" mean "we are kind of tight on 'real' cash" because we are losing so much money as we hype our stock?
    Mar 11, 2013. 05:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Best Investment In Salesforce Is None At All [View article]
    DT - I'm looking at their 10-K now and I will put the figures on a spreadsheet to prove out my theory. I can eyeball the last 8 quarters and see an amazing consistency in Revenues and wildy swinging changes in SG&A (and therefore net losses). If I can apply some statistical analysis, I'm sure it'll show that Revenue never swings more than 1 standard deviation from the mean growth rate while all 'below the line' figures, especially SG&A will show much larger ranges.

    The facts are right there before us. The authors of Freakonomics would see the pattern immediately and then compare it to all other similar companies and ask "how is this possible?"

    I unfortunately am busy with my real job this week but I will get around to it!
    Mar 11, 2013. 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Samsung Dethroned Apple? [View article]
    both companies are wildly successful in their strengths. I would own stock in both if I could. Honda and Toyota, Ford & GM all peacefully coexist in the market. Some claim excellence in SUVs/Trucks while others' forte is smaller cars in different cultures. If we lived in Japan we'd see no American cars and would claim "Japanese cars are market leader!" because in Japan, they are.

    Also, who in their right mind would choose a Kindle over an iPad? that is 100% driven on price and not function or desirability. It skews your data a little. I do concede the Galaxy III is doing very well vs. iPhone and that some people want the larger screen.
    Mar 10, 2013. 11:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon A Giant Ponzi Scheme Dressed In Drag? [View article]
    AAPL made more GAAP profit last quarter than AMZN has made in its entire existence. Then AAPL dropped $64 per share and AMZN crept up another 11%

    Anyone owning a 'growth stock' mutual fund who noticed your fund sold AAPL and bought CRM or AMZN should think very hard about staying in that fund. it is a terrible trade.
    Mar 9, 2013. 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Best Investment In Salesforce Is None At All [View article]
    respectfully disagree. i believe it will be uncovered that they are intentionaly booking reductions in revenue 'below the line' as sales and marketing expense when in fact it is price and therefore should be deducted from net sales.

    the 'tell' is the consistency of the 30%+ YOY growth every single quarter. they never have a top line miss. as a matter of fact, they engineer a "beat" each quarter and ever so slightly up their revenue guidance. So the SOP is "beat and up guidance" on top line each time. But while all of this 'amazingness' is happening, the sales and marketing expense and GAAP losses swing wildly.

    Sarbanes Oxley was written to avoid this deception.
    Mar 9, 2013. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Should Follow IBM's Successful Turnaround Story [View article]
    In the book "Who says you can't make an Elephant dance: The IBM Turnaround", the old IBM was a twisted maze of leaders, presidents, friends of Tom Watson and beurocrats wallowing in a post-boom tarpit waiting to become CSCO, HPQ, DELL, etc...And Lou turned them around (great book btw)

    In the AAPL story, the 'growth money' decided that AAPL couldn't continue it's metoric rise forever and they bailed to gamble on AMZN, CRM, N & WDAY.

    I personally think 3 things: Your title is poorly worded, AAPL stock is the only thing that needs a turnaround and the 'growth' money that followed "all things cloud" is in for a massive correction that will make people run from the market again. What absolute idiot would sell their AAPL stock and buy CRM or AMZN?
    Mar 8, 2013. 03:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Best Investment In Salesforce Is None At All [View article]
    it is better to make money than to be right - but it's much much better to be right AND make money, which all of us shorts will eventually do.

    notice they haven't done their 10K yet, I can hear them positioning their cash flows and deferred income stories now. it's probably full time work keeping the smoke and mirrors show going. And the SEC no doubt will be interested in changes in working capital since they've recently asked CRM to detail that out better.
    Mar 8, 2013. 08:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Seriously Wrong With Salesforce [View article]
    Diana - we've missed you. I am more and more convinced that they are violating the strict law and intent of Sarbanes Oxley. There is NO WAY a company can grow so consistently above 30% every quarter without seasonality, macro, or PRICE needing to be a factor. They are booking reductions in revenue below the line. I have seen this movie before. I know I'm right. The catalyst will be the SEC investigating because they will keep 'growing' 30% YOY for another 5 years if they're not made to report accurately.
    Mar 3, 2013. 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Seriously Wrong With Salesforce [View article]
    the company isn't a Ponzi scheme, the stock is. 2 different things know CRM.
    Mar 3, 2013. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Earnings Preview: 7th Consecutive GAAP Loss Expected [View article]
    it's just a better short today than it was before earnings. top line growth is not enough over the long term. you have to eventually turn your revenue into profit and they cannot ever be profitable enough to justify this stock price. keep in mind the fuel for this run is all 'growth stock' funds and if you think they left AAPL fast watch how fast they bail on this one as soon as the growth slows.

    in May's quarterly report, we should see a significant decrease in deferred revenue growth as the bill cycle change will have come full circle. of course they could always change the billing cycle again...no accounting scam is beyond them.
    Mar 3, 2013. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Seriously Wrong With Salesforce [View article]
    Silly Paulo - you know that doesn't matter. It's Amazon!
    Mar 2, 2013. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Seriously Wrong With Salesforce [View article]
    a ton of the money that left AAPL went directly to the Cloud and other growth stories. With "Growth Funds" it is all about the top line and not about profit. I agree with your assessment, this run is from limited Growth Stories. I'll give CRM credit, they know this game and engineer growth very consistently over 30%. It has been the same scheme for 3 years now.
    Mar 2, 2013. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After-hours top gainers, as of 5:15 p.m.: OUTD +13%. AVD +8%. ITMN +7%. JAKK +7%. GTI +6%.
    After-hours top losers: CRIS -13%. BPZ -10%. AFCE -8%. CRM -7%. MKTG -7%[View news story]
    CRM is up an additional $0.10 after hours. That's a mistake.
    Mar 1, 2013. 05:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Seriously Wrong With Salesforce [View article]
    it's a legal Ponzi scheme because CRM doesn't hide anything. They boast that they are investing everything into the top line. They legally lay out their horrific profitability financials in their 10Qs.

    Benioff is no more guilty of fraud than the 5 largest mutual fund investors who never allow this stock to go down. You can see it being propped up after every adjustment. They are all building the house of cards together. The retail investor buying 100 share lots aka "the suckers" will hopefully jump out before the implosion.

    Top line growth can continue for a long time when you forego all else and are rewarded for it. The SEC or a liquidity crunch will be the catalyst. And there's no restriction on easy money right now, so we are left with the SEC. God help us.
    Mar 1, 2013. 09:45 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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