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Doyle3000

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  • The Idiocy Of Gilead's Undervaluation [View article]
    So explain AAPL going to $385 then up to current $840? You give Wall St WAAAAAAY too much credit. They know no more than we do. They just dress better.
    Feb 5, 2015. 08:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Idiocy Of Gilead's Undervaluation [View article]
    Can you believe how cheap the $100 January 2017's are? I just bought some for $18.65!!
    Feb 5, 2015. 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Reports: Let's Analyze It [View article]
    Does the conservative investor ever take ownership of stocks other than after a cataclysmic event like 9/11 or Lehmann Bros?
    Feb 5, 2015. 04:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Gilead Beats Estimates, But Guidance Spooks Investors [View article]
    Title should've read

    "Gilead Beats Estimates, But Guidance Spooks weak hands, traders and people who don't understand financials. Investors LOVE the outlook"
    Feb 5, 2015. 12:07 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Idiocy Of Gilead's Undervaluation [View article]
    "If margin erosion occurs, why then would a conservative management provide guidance which shows a gross profit margin range of 87% to 90%? To have this position represents nothing short of analytical laziness."

    this is exactly why GILD tanked. thank you for validating that I am not taking crazy pills and that the analysts focused on looking for the forest could not see it because there were too many trees in the way.

    i'm befuddled and bewildered how the basic math of enormous margins multiplied be a wonderful range of potential volume growth could not equate to a huge cash and profit windfall in 2015 for these analysts. they were so hung up on the 22% discount moving to a 44% discount, and they didn't even understand that!!

    it just meant that more product was going out the door with deviated pricing and I swear they all thought that the pricing was doing to drop by 44%. I really mean that - they didn't get it.

    now here's the question: is it laziness or ineptitude or simply not knowing this business? I think a combination of all 3 and I bought 4 more $100 2017 January LEAPs at a measly $18.65 this morning. What a bunch of morons.
    Feb 5, 2015. 11:33 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Update: Gilead Sciences Beats Estimates Yet Again [View article]
    DTMM - LOVE your comments and respect your opinions but I disagree here. The good ones are 10% and the average ones are 70% and the terrible ones make up 20%.

    There were a few terrible ones on the call last night. Couldn't stop focusing on discounts and couldn't even add up that higher volumes x still wonderful margins x best in market product = huge cash generation for years and years.

    Did they really expect GILD to sell everything at MSRP? And did they really not understand every single answer that GILD provided? It was like listening to kindergarteners who couldn't solve for x in 3x=6.

    I followed AAPL's rise and fall and rise daily for 3 years. Read everything I could because I had a lot of money in AAPL. After living through that I can tell you the vast majority of sell-side analysts cannot see the forest because all the trees are in the way. Or their parent company is way short or way long the stock they are touting.
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:52 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Update: Gilead Sciences Beats Estimates Yet Again [View article]
    did you think it was all going to sell at list price? this is very standard for all manufacturers to have a published price and then a logical set of discounts based on volumes and compliance.

    the analysts were so hung up on the discounts that they couldn't multiply on their calculators the volume x the discounted price. The punch line is that GILD is going to make a MINT on these 2 drugs.

    Analysts last night were busy stepping on $100 bills to pick up their quarters. Couldn't see the forest because all the trees were in the way.
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:44 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Update: Gilead Sciences Beats Estimates Yet Again [View article]
    it's weak hands dumping 100 shares at a time. no professionals would jump out after that earnings call. this is a cash register.
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No accelerated review for Merck HCV med [View news story]
    if that isn't a testament to GILD having the best possible treatment I don't know what would be. Of course the FDA could've been a little more professional and said those facts instead of just rescinding for no given reason.
    Feb 4, 2015. 09:57 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras -10% after results fail to include corruption writedowns [View news story]
    Ahhh but I purchased just recently and am already up on CEO disposal rumors :) When you buy really does matter doesn't it? And they've yet to even clear the corruption write-off hurdle. Once they do this will head north of $8 I would imagine.
    Feb 4, 2015. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Is Still A Buy, But Expect Continued Compression Of The P/E Ratio. [View article]
    Well done Arizona Investor - the P/E compression is upon us. And it is still a BUY. I agree with both parts of your title.

    Also fellow investors, I have to tell you, the Jan 2017 $100 Calls are ridiculously cheap. Check them out. I buy one every time I accumulate a few thousand dollars. Even if GILD doesn't launch another product they'll blow the doors off of the implied $122 over the next 2 years just with buybacks and very conservative earnings guidance by the company.

    I buy these on every dip and seem to make 20% every time the stock slowly creeps back up. It's got a huge margin of safety on it given the time frame and cheap premium. I'm buying a few this morning.
    Feb 4, 2015. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Notes from Gilead Q4 earnings call; HCV discounts go up [View news story]
    CLF was up 11% AH the other day only to close the next day down 3%. AH trading doesn't mean much to me.
    Feb 4, 2015. 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' (GILD) CEO John Martin on Q4 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    many commenters accurately predicted P/E compression because of fear of earnings growth slowing or stopping. this exact same thing happened to AAPL. the street all touted that AAPL won the Super Bowl with iPhone 4 and then the party was over and the stock would never hit $700 again. AAPL had to compress all the way down to 7x earnings (after you remove their cash) until finally the value hunters all started jumping in. Now it's trading well over that $700 mark just a few years later.

    If you can't see this cash flow stream they have in front of them and the safe shareholder wealth it will bring you are just a weak hand. stay in this big and you'll beat the S&P handily over the next few years.

    The S&P is slowly topping, GILD is coiling the spring.
    Feb 3, 2015. 11:51 PM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Q4 EPS up 364%, Harvoni sales >$2.1B [View news story]
    these numbers are ridiculously good. like stupid good. what an opportunity! It'll hit someone's radar soon enough. (Ackman, Icahn, etc..)

    I'm accumulating stock and long term calls (LEAPS)- no way this doesn't spring at some point. they may even think about taking it private at this under-valuation.
    Feb 3, 2015. 06:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Notes from Gilead Q4 earnings call; HCV discounts go up [View news story]
    the "money" is not the smart money. I think it's the traders. this is the EXACT same path AAPL took a few years ago. they'd announce huge earnings, huge buybacks, huge cash flow and the stock would tank. it happened several times before finally someone like Carl Icahn said "wait a minute, this is ridiculous"

    watch Icahn or Ackman look at GILD in 2015 and watch it run once they do.

    and tomorrow if it stays down, you can pick up $100 Jan 2017's for a song. may be the single best investment one could make in 2015.
    Feb 3, 2015. 06:24 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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