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Doyle3000

Doyle3000
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  • Salesforce.com: A Story With An Unhappy Ending [View article]
    And your 2013 & 2014 returns, unless your portfolio was $100 to start with, I just don't believe it. No one makes that kind of return. You're a statistical anomaly if it's true.

    And if you're such an awesome investor, how can you not see the stunning differences between making 12% - 25% GAAP Profit margins on $5bn revenue (Shady's examples) and losing 6% on $5bn in revenues (CRM)?

    You appear to be that guy who digs in no matter how weak his argument. And trust, it is weak.
    Jan 21, 2015. 04:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Is Still A Buy, But Expect Continued Compression Of The P/E Ratio. [View article]
    I read that India hasn't fully dismissed a patent on Sovaldi, but a small portion of the application. GILD has strong focus on seeing this process through.

    There's such a tiny probability of an Indian Generic Pharma company duplicating Sovaldi well enough to hurt GILD's US Market Share. The probability of a catastrophic event at GILDs largest manufacturing site (earthquake, tornado) is probably a higher risk statistically.

    But like we've all witnessed, every single headline seems to scare the weak hands. I'm sure more weak hands are coming in now and will be flushed out with the next negative headline.
    Jan 21, 2015. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leading analyst thinks Gilead may beat Q4 HCV consensus [View news story]
    This reminds me of when the market completely underestimated AAPL's earning power with their 'one trick pony' iPhone 4. They blew the doors off at $11+ per share when consensus was $9+ per share.

    Stock jumped $30 that night from $565 to $595 and roared up to $705

    I love when the market has no idea what news is about to be sprung on them
    Jan 20, 2015. 04:01 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rivals' Clouds Are Gathering Around Salesforce [View article]
    Oh man this is going to be such great fodder once the stock crashes. I cannot believe how long P.T. Benioff has been able to absolutely bullsh@t the sell-side analyst community. And Jim Cramer! No one ever learns.

    The one and only thing keeping CRM afloat is uber-expensive revenue growth and ridiculously low interest rates.

    And he may ride this wave for another whole year now. But they better start thinking about how they are going to re-finance some of these notes coming due before the interest rates start jumping. Any risk analyst worth her salt at a bank will see that they aren't worthy of competitive rates. And I hold firm that there's a 15% chance this company has to claim Chapter 11 within 4 years.

    I do give Marc Amazing Incredible Benioff credit for leading the charge in changing the old word 'internet' into the new word 'Cloud' and making himself billions in doing so.

    Short CRM and the longs are going to deserve what's heading their way.
    Jan 20, 2015. 07:30 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Street Abandons ChannelAdvisor In Droves [View article]
    And to think, I was bummed that my $17.50 and $20 calls were called. In hindsight it's a genius trade. Now maybe I'll jump back in and sell the $12.50 calls.
    Jan 18, 2015. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of Earnings Unless You Dare [View article]
    Once again I smile looking back at one of your excellent suggestions. You had purported that CREE, trading then around $49 would make for a good quick covered call. I agreed, bought 2 covered calls. They were called the next week and I made like 4% in 5 trading days. Now I see it has taken a precipitous drop since then and I can jump back in. The old me would've instead bought at $49 and held all the way down, dollar cost averaging and in this case, throwing good money after bad.
    Jan 18, 2015. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG reportedly selling 40-year paper [View news story]
    With BV still over 20% higher than stock price I'd use all $2b to buy back shares.
    Jan 12, 2015. 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • RAIT Financial Gets Extra Cheap On Misplaced Panic Creating 28% Near-Term Upside [View article]
    If most REITs, especially high yield ones, trade below book these days, why would this one trade higher? I'd think it would trickle down towards its current BV no?

    There are three sides to every story so thank you for providing the 2nd version.

    Now Mr. Market will tell us the real story over the next few months. His chart about price per share and shareholder equity says an awful lot.
    Jan 9, 2015. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' New Contract Exclusivity Helps The Shares Advance [View article]
    Agree with you Doug, I think ego was at play here. It was an "Oh yeah, I'll show you our power" move by Express Scripts.

    But if I'm GILD, why now would I even discount by 1 penny my Sovaldi and/or Harvoni to Express Scripts? They'll get list price for every exception authorization or Genotype that VPak can't cure.

    FYI - I'm forced to use Express Scripts and I rank them 2nd worst to Comcast in terms of customer experience. I can't stand them.
    Jan 7, 2015. 10:16 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - 5 Best Dow Stocks Of 2014 (1/5/15) [View article]
    #'s 4, 6 & 7 make for good learning from 2014
    Jan 6, 2015. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: A Story With An Unhappy Ending [View article]
    You, like many CRM bulls, continue to confuse a company's cool products and services and potential with that company's ability to turn revenues into profits. I won't debate you as we have extremely wide gaps in what we feel are "understanding the financials".

    Luckily for you, I think interest rates will continue to stay surprisingly low and keep SFDC solvent for the time being. Once rates start to rise, get out of this stock. Once the first mutual fund calls it quits, it'll collapse completely. Could lose 80% of its value.
    Jan 6, 2015. 10:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RBC provides commentary on Viekira Pak ramp up [View news story]
    Thanks SD1, that looks really conservative, especially the low-end.

    Keep in mind this probably doesn't include any consideration of buybacks. Wouldn't be surprised if Ackman or Ichan got involved here.
    Jan 5, 2015. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RBC provides commentary on Viekira Pak ramp up [View news story]
    Although I'm not a fan of most sell-side analysts, as I think they are reactive at best and more likely pure patsies; I do respect Michael Yee and think he's directionally very correct.
    Dec 31, 2014. 09:33 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Diapers Are Going To Flop Just Like The Fire Phone [View article]
    Do you really think the buyers value Free Shipping over Lowest Delivered Cost? Are a lot of people programmed that way? I'm baffled that #3 would win.
    Dec 31, 2014. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Provides Some Sage Words On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Bret,
    These articles and comments are all amazingly similar to our conversations in 2012 except every time you typed GILD you could type AAPL.

    Look at the similarities:

    1) Completely oversold based on uninformed fears (Jobs' death, Express Scripts)
    2) Perception that competitor will take them over (Samsung, Abbvie)
    3) Large contingency of traders vs. investors
    4) Widespread ownership in private accounts
    5) Tons of 'newbs' in the stock
    6) Daily articles for and against the stock some fact-filled, some noise-filled.
    7) Forward P/E under 10
    8) Huge cash generation ability
    9) Low PEG
    10) Perception that company was a one-trick pony (iPhone, Harvoni)
    11) Excellent management team getting no benefit of the doubt

    Patience is the virtue that made my 2014 a beautiful year because I held onto every AAPL share no matter the noise. Now that is paring down and GILD is the new AAPL.

    Hang in there everyone, fortunes will come to those who see through the noise and buy when everyone is selling scared.
    Dec 30, 2014. 05:46 PM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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