Seeking Alpha

User 835812

User 835812
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View User 835812's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Gilead Is A Cash Generation Monster [View article]
    worked wonders for AAPL
    Apr 16, 2015. 02:25 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Is A Cash Generation Monster [View article]
    well done - great long term holding
    Apr 16, 2015. 12:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • salesforce.com Is A Leader In Social Responsibility But Improvements Still Needed [View article]
    "In the case of salesforce, the company has been recognized in many years as one of the World's Most Ethical Companies by Ethisphere. Ethisphere looks at companies that think similarly and push the envelope of what corporate ethics means and push for leadership in this area"

    Their ethics are a complete dichotomy.

    I admire their outspoken leader not holding back opinions re: Indiana etc... and they are philanthropic and their leader also calls on others to join in the giving. All very noble and I applaud it.

    But from an accounting standpoint, they do absolutely everything they can to obfuscate their true financial picture, which is not pretty. They are enriching themselves via stock options at an obnoxious rate and then not counting those tens of millions of dollars as an ongoing expense, rather treating them as non-recurring expenses. All to trick the investor into thinking that their model will generate nice profits one day.

    When, not if, this stock recalibrates to the true profit that it can deliver for its shareholders, there will be class action lawsuits. These suits will point to them "willingly and knowingly" obscuring their true situation re: deferred revenues, cash flows and again, generally accepted accounting principles; leaving the poor plaintiffs with massive losses when profits matter again someday.

    Because the latter outweighs the former, I am short CRM.
    Apr 15, 2015. 02:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seabridge Gold: Possible Worries About Cash And Dilution [View article]
    yes exactly like 2008 - there will be a run to safety. A big one. Today's retirees were fried in 2001 & 2008. They almost expect to get burned again right now. You can see it in their commentary. They are so miffed that they can't buy CDs or Treasuries anymore to make money.

    watch gold leap this year once interest rates start to finally rise and the market has a correction. the bull market is aging. I can see CNBC ramping up the gold commercials in the near future.
    Apr 15, 2015. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seabridge Gold: Possible Worries About Cash And Dilution [View article]
    Once this very long awaited correction finally hits the stock markets, we'll see gold revive quickly.

    The Fed accommodation, in my opinion, has lasted too long. They should've started raising rates already. The stock market is trading now around 17x earnings. That's a little rich and has pockets of bubbles (cloud, biopharma, etc.)

    SA should get a nice boost in gold pricing before they have to seek financing.
    Apr 14, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harvoni Continues To Dominate Hep C Market, Market Continues To Undervalue Gilead [View article]
    the companies yes, the stock action however is very similar:

    AAPL announced a so-so quarter and the stock tanked in 2013 even though they had made a ridiculous amount of GAAP profit
    GILD announced a so-so quarter and the stock tanked from $108 to $88 even though they had just announced a ridiculous amount of GAAP profit

    Analysts said that Samsung was going to crush AAPL's ability to grow profits because pricing was going to drop - stock trades down to 10x earnings
    Analysts say that ABBVIE et al is going to crush GILD's ability to grow profits because pricing was going to drop - stock trades down to 10x earnings

    AAPL initiates dividend because they have so much cash
    GILD initiates dividend because they have so much cash

    AAPL is finally appreciated after launch of iPhone 5 - stock carries the market for 17 months+. It rose from $385 pre-split up to today's $889
    GILD not yet appreciated (maybe need to announce a split)
    Apr 13, 2015. 02:09 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead submits NDA for HIV-1 combo med [View news story]
    I think it is extremely pivotal for GILD to explain very clearly in language suitable for a kindergartener what exactly the discount rate is, what it means in terms of margins, and what they expect from it going forward.

    I firmly believe the analyst community heard "46% discount" and assumed that Sovaldi and Harvoni prices had just been cut 46%. That is not what they meant, but it's what was heard.

    GILD management cannot assume their language and way of looking at things internally is understood the same way outside their HQ. They really shot themselves in the foot saying that phrase without clarification last quarter.
    Apr 8, 2015. 04:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merck HCV combo med tagged a Breakthrough Therapy for HCV-4 and HCV-1 dialysis patients [View news story]
    Selling your drugs in Africa is noble but not profitable - this can't be the demographic to which they were hoping to sell expensive solutions.
    Apr 8, 2015. 09:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Price Dip Offers A Strong Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Great article - bought more this morning.

    I think this is so similar to AAPL a few years ago that it'll take the company to hit Wall Street with a 2 x 4 for them to see the value.

    If I were running the Q1 earnings call, I'd announce a stock split and increased buybacks. Of course that is just engineering but when AAPL announced the 7 for 1 and the buybacks it all of a sudden got attention to the stock.

    People selling GILD today have absolutely no vision. I have read dozens of articles from authors admitting shamefully that they sold AAPL at $550 ($78.57 split adjusted). And I want to ask those people "Was that capitulation or did you not have any idea that it was a ridiculously strong buy at that price?"

    Shaking my head on GILD but accumulating as I go. The 2017 $100 LEAPS are stupid cheap today if you want to dip your toes in.
    Apr 6, 2015. 04:14 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    MU hit for a nice 1.5% in four days - thanks for that one!
    Apr 4, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A​n Option Strategy ​For Beaten Offshore Drillers [View article]
    I think any news at all by OPEC or non-OPEC about slowing production or dwindling reserves would rocket the entire sector by 5%. I'd even say that buying a LEAP could be less risky and provide better ROI for these drillers.

    Long NE, MRO and selling calls while I wait for the rebound
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 salesforce.com Mysteries [View article]
    CustomerSat you make a very fair statement that investment five years ago in this company would've paid off nicely on the promise of future earnings.

    And even new investment today may actually pay off if interest rates stay low and Wall St. continues to pay for top line growth and future promises of profit.

    But every year that passes tells me that no one can answer the "HOW?"

    By the time MSFT, ORCL, SAP were this size they were already making a lot of GAAP profit. The only logical difference is that CRM's model doesn't work to drive GAAP profit, it only works to keep the stock price up. There is really no other conclusion.

    If CRM was trading exactly as it is today with same revenue, growth and profit and we had that Lehmann Brothers moment of 2007/2008 - do you not see how fast this stock would go down to almost nothing? There's no profit, no dividend and major dilution. It's life-blood is the altered state that the Fed has created with QE.
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A No-Nonsense Projection Of Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    The announcement that the HCV solutions are approved in Japan could come before the Q1 announcement which would be nice.

    I don't mind accumulating down here. I sell $99 PUTs each Monday which also helps while I wait. Between selling $105 calls and $99 PUTs you can earn some nice income before the next catalyst
    Mar 22, 2015. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corporation - Unloved And Undervalued [View article]
    Great article -

    So you prefer they keep the 11% dividend or as an owner would you like to see them slash the dividend down to 5.5% (still pretty good) and use the remaining $175mm/yr to buy back 12.5mm shares per year over next two years?

    Cleary the 11% dividend is not believed by the street to be sustainable. Even if NE can afford it, the stock is trading like it's going to be severely cut.

    Maybe if they announce that indeed it will remain in place for all of 2015 we'd get a pretty nice jump in stock price.

    I'm long at $14.12 and liking my long term prospects.
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Market's Optimism About Salesforce.com Justified? [View article]
    I wonder what will happen to CRM once they actually hit $10b?

    That's Benioff's vision and he appears to be on course for it. But will the rise of interest rates combined with a slowing bull market crater this stock before he achieves it?

    If the stock does have a major re-calibration of it's ability to earn profits or keep growing top-line at such rates, they'll lose their currency to pay their sales and marketing people (with stock) and in turn will the talent start leaving, preventing them from even hitting $10b? CRM certainly couldn't afford to pay themselves with cash at the same level.

    It's going to be very interesting to watch. It is inevitable that the valuation will be recalibrated as people start seeing that the model is incapable of making money.
    Mar 19, 2015. 02:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,611 Comments
3,345 Likes