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Doyle3000

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  • Apple's Solar Powered iPhone 6 And iPod Touch Under A Sapphire Hood [View article]
    sort of like the cars that run on both gas and electricity. and what a great emergency charge function if you forget your charger or are lost in the woods/ocean.
    Jan 26 01:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JGWPT Holdings Has Massive Potential [View article]
    Good find for sure. Are you looking at this as a deep value find based on its tiny P/E or do you think this company will grow? I can see a few good quarters driving up the price via multiple expansion, but it doesn't appear to be a growing company. Is this more of a 1 time hit where you just wait for Mr. Market to understand that this should be trading higher?

    I agree with a few other comments in that a 2%-3% dividend would make this a much more attractive stock. Nice write up.
    Jan 25 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Positive Sentiment In Apple Gives Buy Signal Before Earnings Release [View article]
    Love this. AAPL is way too big a portion of my portfolio but I can't think of a better buy right now for 2014. Maybe I'll just buy a few $520 calls. Oh the addiction to this stock.
    Jan 25 10:54 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: The Bottom Is Here And Risk Is To The Upside [View article]
    did you close all of your positions xx? If not, those are paper gains just like the AGNC is a paper loss. And I'm sure you didn't enjoy Thurs or Friday. Those bull market gains are only locked in if you sell all of your positions and I'm sure you didn't.
    Jan 25 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts Rate Salesforce.com A Buy. They Should Be Ashamed Of Themselves [View article]
    Michael - are you at all surprised that their filings are confusing and cleverly worded to 'cloud' what is really going on financially in that building?

    The more I read about this though, I can't help but feeling that there are also secret meetings going on with the 5 largest shareholders (all mutual funds) where Benioff is basically told "you keep this thing growing around 30% YOY and we'll buy all of your stock from the options transactions to keep supporting the price."

    The institutional investment percentage has been at 97% for 4 years while they add shares by the millions. May be several conspirators working here on the house of cards.
    Jan 25 10:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kimberly-Clark's CEO Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I believe that Tom Falk has called it a 'challenging environment' for about 13 years straight. I would fall out of my chair if he ever said it was a 'good' environment. He's always challenged.
    Jan 24 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: The Bottom Is Here And Risk Is To The Upside [View article]
    i've recently added to shares and look forward to a cumulative 20%+ in 2014, which will make me forget all about 2013's mREITS performance, which, in a word, sucked.

    Long IVR, AGNC, CYS & ARR
    Jan 24 09:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts Rate Salesforce.com A Buy. They Should Be Ashamed Of Themselves [View article]
    Matt - nice job debating us ravenous bears. You bring up good logical points. And I do think they'll continue to grow quickly. I just really strongly believe that they are an accounting nightmare and as Jay points out - if their revenue is SO consistent and abundant, how on earth can they not make an ROIC higher than today's very inexpensive Cost of Capital?

    What's going to happen when interest rates rise over the next few years? They have really pushed the envelope to get to $4b. It's going to be insane to see what they do to get to $10b since their organic growth is in the 20's% now.
    Jan 24 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts Rate Salesforce.com A Buy. They Should Be Ashamed Of Themselves [View article]
    I focus on strike prices that will pay me about $35 per 100 shares and that is usually about $4 to $5 below current price and 2 to 3 weeks out. It easily covers commission and margin expense.

    if you only are short 100 shares or less my tactic doesn't work as well. I could see that.

    the stock has already gotten away from me as I'm in the red by $4000. Once I get some more cash I'm going to add to the position. Every quarter that they report these fairy tale earnings where Goodwill makes up most of their assets and Stock Option transactions create most of their cash flow I'll remain confident that this stock will crash hard.
    Jan 24 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is A Terrible Time To Buy On Margin [View article]
    Great article. One clarifying point is that you should cull your long positions that are on margin. What I do with most of my margin is hold short positions on a few high-flyers who are so far out over their skis it feels like 1999. This way, when the next correction (or gasp, crash) comes I'll have a heavy keel beneath me to offset the storm.

    But your point is well taken. And thanks everyone for enlightening me about Scottrade and IB!
    Jan 23 10:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts Rate Salesforce.com A Buy. They Should Be Ashamed Of Themselves [View article]
    Exactly. But it is 'if' the stock price fell below the strike price of the sold put. I stay $5 below the current price to allow for some ups and downs. And I do weekly so I can really watch it like a hawk. And I don't have any puts sold during earnings announcements because bad news has been known to cause dives before and I don't want the stock put on me. Ever.

    Try it with 100 short shares and selling 1 put at around $52 with expiration in a few weeks (before earnings). It's pretty easy money.
    Jan 23 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts Rate Salesforce.com A Buy. They Should Be Ashamed Of Themselves [View article]
    Ill - I have been burned buying naked PUTS for sure. Too much premium and quick decay make for some sorry trades. I don't buy them anymore, just sell them using my short position as collateral. Nice actually being on the other side of the sucker trade :P
    Jan 22 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts Rate Salesforce.com A Buy. They Should Be Ashamed Of Themselves [View article]
    My thesis for shorting CRM has always been a long term investment with guaranteed payoff because of everything Michael stated above.

    A few times I closed positions once I had made some money, only to reinitiate when it started running again. If you can stand seeing paper losses, just keep adding every time it spikes (like this week). To finance the margin, sell OTM PUTS each week.

    I figure even if the farce goes on for 4 more years and they grow to $10b as their stated goal, at some point one of their very large investors will say "OK I have to get out of this before everyone else does" and once the thumb comes out of the dike, watch out. All of our paper losses will quickly roll into a beautiful green matching Ben Franklin's face on the $100 bill.

    Still short. Still waiting. Still know I'm right. This is going to pay off big time.
    Jan 22 02:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts Rate Salesforce.com A Buy. They Should Be Ashamed Of Themselves [View article]
    Good adds MSH - so if that IT services sold for 5x EBITDA and we could argue that CRM should sell for 10x EBITDA, Michael's premise is still very sound that there is no way on God's green earth that CRM's market cap should be $37b or 7x sales.
    Jan 22 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources - How Far Will It Fall? [View article]
    Good article. I'm long CLF off and on over the years. It has always been a 'whippy stock' - if you like it at this price, you probably don't have too much downside and at least 30% upside (at some point, like I said, it's whippy, so sell once you make nice money)

    selling $20 PUTs pays a nice premium if you want to get in a little lower.

    this is one of the better 'trading' stocks out there. and I always sell calls against the position which tweaks ROI nicely and makes me get out once the money is made.

    people who listen to Goldman Sachs can assuredely never match what an ETF like SPY or VTI would earn for them, at no fee.
    Jan 22 10:18 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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