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User 835812

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  • Time Is Illusory. Events May Be, Too [View article]
    Isn't it sad that this grueling negotiation with Iran will beget another grueling negotiation internally? I like the Ken Burns documentaries that focus on the big picture of monumental decisions, and only slightly mention the nay-sayers and politically driven dribble that we'll be subject to these next few months.

    If we did have the space vehicle to move two months ahead to where no one is talking about the Iranian deal because it's completely done (like the ACA) I bet a few of us would jump aboard.

    But then I'd miss out on eight of your delightful articles!!
    Jul 20, 2015. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Doing Battle With Nature [View article]
    Add to that the inevitable end of the Fed's ZIRP and the Dow being near the high end of historical trailing P/E's and I think we are finally in for some real ugly.

    We shall not be singing the opening duet from Grease this fall. But if we have a strong summer, I'll be the first to sing "Summer Lovin" for the crowd.

    Still playing the LOWS trade and have mixed feelings about it either being called at $70 before ex-dividend or letting it go and foregoing the dividend. Guess I really can't lose unless it tanks over next 5 weeks.
    Jul 13, 2015. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Salesforce.com Is Not A Buy [View article]
    CRM has had the very fortunate timing to be on the front end of the cloud wave during the Fed's ZIRP policy. They also have quite the showman for their CEO. All of this has made the stock soar. None of it will last much longer, maybe a few more years. This stock cannot go anywhere but way way down long term. They make no GAAP profits at $6bn so why will they at $10bn?

    On top of that, they've successfully flim-flammed most financial writers into saying things like "70x next year's earnings" which of course is completely false since they have NO earnings.

    And finally, their cash flow is mostly derived from financing activities and stock option exercising. But everyone neglects that fact as well.

    They've really fooled a lot of people for a long time. But the clock continues to tick towards their doom. Fundamentals and earning real profits, over the longer haul, are undefeated.
    Jul 12, 2015. 05:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dog Of A Week - A Tale Of 3 Flags [View article]
    MU Leaps are cheap today. Bought some for $500 each contract for the January 2017 $15 strike. That should pay off.

    Also thinking the $17 puts on MU could be worth selling as I wouldn't mind having them put on me at that price.

    Nice article as always. Was the confederate flag supposed to look like the backdrop of a Grateful Dead show? It's trippy. Didn't know if you were being PC or not.
    Jun 29, 2015. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dog Of A Week - A Tale Of 3 Flags [View article]
    Divorce lawyers just got a 10% bump in potential clients. Big win for them.
    Jun 29, 2015. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Still My Next Apple [View article]
    Hi Juan,
    Guess 'cheap' is all relative eh? Today's $2800 price for 1 contract of the $100 Jan 2017 Leaps implies that the stock will be around $128 in January 2017; or 6% higher than today's $120 price. For me, it's a no brainer that GILD will be at least 6% higher over the next 6 quarterly earnings reports. It may jump that much next month after their next earnings report.

    If GILD does what I think it will do (go to $150) over the next 3 or 4 quarters, I should be able to double my $2800 investment well before the expiration date.

    If the contract was going for $5000 I'd still consider buying it but wouldn't think it was so cheap because it would be assuming GILD will be at $150 by January 2017, which is much more likely a better estimate.
    Jun 26, 2015. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Still My Next Apple [View article]
    January 2017 LEAPS $100 strike are still pretty cheap. Keep accumulating!
    Jun 25, 2015. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce's Deferred Revenues And Un-Billed Deferred Revenues: Show Me The Money [View article]
    I have never heard an analyst try to point Marc into a corner. If you say anything slightly less than "Congrats on an incredible quarter, what other awesomeness is happening at Salesforce these days?" you basically get ignored. Or the standard "We are investing for growth. We are going to be a $10bn company. SAP, ORCL and CSCO all forewent profitability to grow when they started".

    Of course the analysts are so young that they don't even realize how much BS that last sentence is. All of today's old-tech titans were making huge GAAP profits while they grew from $1bn to $10bn. But don't let facts ever get in the way of the amazingness. It's such a joke.
    Jun 25, 2015. 03:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce's Deferred Revenues And Un-Billed Deferred Revenues: Show Me The Money [View article]
    Very good. Can't wait for the 'cash flow' analysis. Keep it going!
    Jun 24, 2015. 09:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Salesforce.com Thinks It Is So Valuable [View article]
    I wouldn't be surprised if there was talk of $50bn but a sociopathic egomaniac would never see the gift. His aspirations are firmly on $10bn revenue and 7x sales = $70 bn. That's the number. Anything less is not the goal.

    It'll be interesting to see which happens first: Benioff getting revenues to $10bn or the next bear market taking his stock down so far that he is forced to sell at $50bn or much, much less due to stockholder pressure to maximize their investment.
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce: The Gain Without The Pain? [View article]
    Their firm could end up like Arthur-Anderson. This is becoming a huge market cap risk now. And I bet there's an internal culture for everyone to max out their stock purchases as well.

    This is really smelling more and more like the next Enron, maybe without all the shell games but the same wealth destruction for the employee shareholders. And same pressure applied to their local accountants.
    Jun 19, 2015. 12:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce: The Gain Without The Pain? [View article]
    Very well done and I fully encourage a series of articles covering deferred revenue, revenue recognition and cash flow.

    My theory has been since 2010 that CRM is dirty. They are either booking reductions in revenue below the line (example below) or pulling forward deferred revenues from future quarters to guarantee 'beat and raise' quarters every single quarter for the last 20 quarters.

    Example: They offer a "buy 10 seats, get 1 free" and book the revenue for all 11 seats as top line revenue, then book the cost of 1 seat in "sales and marketing" bucket, which is a Sarb-Ox violation.
    Jun 19, 2015. 12:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple-Google Divorce [View article]
    I can see them peacefully co-existing for decades like Honda and Toyota. And although I'm on my 2nd iPhone, I fully admit here that I only use Google Maps and believe Apple maps will only take me to the "Badlands" (did you see what I did there?)
    Jun 16, 2015. 10:47 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors Is Simply Too Cheap To Ignore [View article]
    KORS, like many stocks, will get hammered in the next broad market drop; which could happen as soon as Greece defaults on their next payment. It almost seems imminent.

    So for that reason, I'm thinking if you believe in the bull thesis, wait for 2 or 3 days after the announcement of the Greece default and you may get it for $39.00 - $44.00 with the same future prospects.
    Jun 16, 2015. 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG pops higher after Greenberg wins suit, but gets no damages [View news story]
    OK the ratings agencies were a joke as well. Established facts. So are you still arguing that the government should've let AIG fail?
    Jun 16, 2015. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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