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  • Update: Douglas Dynamics Earnings [View article]
    Aug 13 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Douglas Dynamics Earnings [View article]
    Also, I should mention that that article was written in January of 2010. Since then, there have been about 6-8 sunspots on the sun, even a 'record setting month' of new sunspots in spring. However, we are in a time of max sunspots (solar maximum), where the sun is peppered with them. So the media is sort of misleading people, if you can believe it, about what is going on w/ there being 'so many sunspots'. The cool summer we've had here in Michigan in 2014, MUCH like last summer, tells me that the output of the sun could still be, um, ice-age-ish, and PLOW could really gain more steam (inverse pun intended). Anyway... Why am I even writing this, does anyone even care. ha ha. Is anyone even reading this, or is it just me, alone, here, on the net...
    Aug 12 11:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Douglas Dynamics Earnings [View article]
    I tried to publish an article on PLOW, but SA would not let me, because they said it had too much to do with science and temperature, rather than PLOW stock. I guess the authors of this article have a better 'in' or something, haha. Just kidding, of course.
    I think this article is wrong, because it is overlooking the sunspot issue, which will make PLOW a internet-like stock, if the sunspot lack continues hereafter. For more clarification on what the bleep I am talking about, here is that article I wrote on PLOW that SA rejected:

    Will A Mini Ice Age Caused By Solar Dimming Make Douglas Dynamics A Star On Wall Street?
    By J. Grupp

    Sun Spots and Ice Ages

    If I were to tell you that there could be empirical evidence for the idea that PLOW may be an upcoming super-hot dot-com-like stock scorcher, you probably would not believe it. The points leading up to that in this article may be surprising, but they are logical, empirical, and simple, and they can be summed-up by the following argument:

    1. Sunspots have drastically reduced in number on the surface of the sun.

    2. Such sunspot reduction has been associated with solar output reduction and mini ice ages in the past (second half of 1600s and into the 1700s, 1816 the so-called "year of no summer").

    3. Solar output reduction currently appears to be the fastest in the past 10,000 years.

    4. An ice age or mini ice age is commencing, as evidenced by the unusually cold winter that parts of the world are having this winter-which is cooling that actually started last spring)

    5. If the world is colder there is more snowfall.

    6. With more snowfall, more plows are needed to clear roads and etc.

    Therefore, a sunspot-caused mini ice age will greatly warm shares of Douglas Dynamics (NYSE:PLOW).

    Each point in this argument builds to the next, to ultimately arrive at the solid, even if speculative, conclusion. The idea that sunspot reduction causes ice age scenarios on Earth is currently somewhat widely discussed by solar scientists. This is merely a theory, at this point, but it is a reasonable theory, since past instances back it up.

    If an ice age were to be commencing, this would, at the very least, cause in the "snow-line" of the United States and other countries to descend much further south (or north, for the Southern Hemisphere) than it has in any living person's memory. Snowy weather could last longer and be much harsher than usual. In other words, (a) if the surface area of the landmass of Earth that receives significant snow in the winter is about greatly increase in size in, say, the next 1-5 years, and (b) if the net total amount of snowfall on planet earth is also about to increase dramatically, then the demand for snow removal equipment could grow significantly, perhaps stratospherically.

    PLOW: The Dot-Com Stock for an Ice Age

    Consider Atlanta, which is not considered a town which receives any sort of significant snowfall in any given decade. In an ice age scenario, it would become a snowy town, which, at-the-moment, it is unprepared for, as the recent news of the February 2014 snow disaster in Atlanta hints at. In an ice age, Atlanta would need to acquire an entire, massive fleet of snow removal equipment. And that's just one city, in just one country. Little Rock, Albuquerque, Houston, Baton Rouge, and scores of other cities, small to large, worldwide, that currently have unsubstantial snow removal capacities (if even that) may need entire convoys. And add to this cities that currently have only light snow removal capacities (for example, Louisville) will need to significantly increase their capacity for removal, as they will have to move into a far more intensive snow removal and salting regimen.

    In other words, in a mini-ice age or larger, the new customer base is staggering for PLOW, and heightened needs for the existing customer regions for PLOW could also be staggering, as existing and older equipment will have to be updated more quickly. Summary: an ice age or mini-ice age could, theoretically speaking, turn PLOW into a hot stock-perhaps even dot-com-like-into the foreseeable future.

    It's Pretty Simple: More Plows Are Needed to Remove More Snow Across More Surface Area

    Every year for the past half dozen I have vacationed during the second week of August in Muskegon Michigan, on the shore of Lake Michigan. I am quite used to the consistency of the weather: always in the 70s-90s each day, water somewhere in the 60s or 70s. And from age 5 to 18 I have spent every summer-the entire summer-at Lake Michigan (my parents were intensive sailors of Lake Michigan when I was a child). So I am very familiar with the weather patterns of Lake Michigan. That's why this past year (2013) when I was in Muskegon again in August, I was so surprised to notice that there was no resemblance, weather-wise, to any time I had been to Lake Michigan in the summer previously in my entire life. It was in the 40s at night (if I recall, one night it was 39), the water was in the lower 50s or upper 40s, the days were very cool/cold, more like an October climate in Michigan than early/mid August. Since I was a kid, Michigan has always been viewed as being the hottest and muggiest time of the Year in Michigan, so I had never seen anything like this, and it seems this was the theme for all of last year here in Michigan: cooler weather. I first noticed this in late April, when I was at a Detroit Tigers game watching Max Scherzer pitch in 30 degrees and snow. Is this cooling something to do with the vaguely discussed concept of "climate change" that some politicians are so fond of discussing, or is this a product of sunspot reduction? The timing, where sunspots disappeared in 2012 right before this cooling started, seems to imply a dimming sun is the source of this cooling.

    In a mild ice age, such as the short-lived one in 1816 (which followed the Dalton Minimum of sunspot reduction in 1815), farmers repeatedly had crop-starts destroyed due to freezing and snowfall in places that were not known to have that sort of weather, or even to have temperatures dipping into the 40s during summer, and 1816 was consequently called "the year without summer". My point in bringing this up is to point out that last year in Michigan was not terribly different than this, where we almost had freezes in August. But more importantly, last year would have been merely the first year in an ice age cycle (if one is starting). 1816 involved a cold-spell and harsh winter of the sort that few Americans could really imagine nowadays, but we were already about 30 percent "there" last year, even though last year was just at the possible start of an ice age. And since more and more solar scientists are purporting that possibly the most drastic sun output decline in 10,000 years is now occurring, this makes it appear even more as if an ice age is commencing. (Who knows, this could even indicate that a full-blown ice age event is upon us, where snowfall does not melt completely in summer in places such as Michigan, southern Canada, Boston, and the like all over the world.)

    It's a simple equation: if the world is cooler, with longer, harsher winters-perhaps much harsher and longer-then more snowplows are needed.

    This means two things for PLOW:

    1. Much of its existing customer base will transform from being a 3-6 month/year user of Douglas Dynamics' products, to a near or full year-round user-base.

    2. More snowfall will have to be dealt with throughout the year since mother nature will cease to help us out in melting snow away as readily as in the past, wherein far more wear-and-tear for each individual unit (plow) sold by Douglas Dynamics (PLOW) will entail.

    3. Regions that are not currently snow regions will become winter zones.

    Long story short, if an ice age is on the way, PLOW, which is, I am sure, considered by many probably to be the most boring stock on the stock market, could become as hot as any. (One can imagine other stocks, such as ACAT, BGC, PKOH, TTC, and others enjoying the same fate, for their share in a lock on the snow removal industry.)

    There are a few sunspots returning to the sun the past few weeks following the stark reduction in the last phase of the sun, so one might believe we are not going into an ice age (and I sure hope we are not), and it could just have been a short-lived event, as happened in 1815-1816. But we are currently in a sunspot maximum, so we are supposed to have sunspots now, but we are supposed to have a lot, not very few. In other words, solar scientists were expecting sunspots this winter, as this is the period of solar maximum, but the maximum was surprisingly wimpy-like a puff instead of a hurricane-therein baffling and alarming scientists. Consequently, the sun is dimmer, and some sort of heavy solar dimming may have started. It is early March here in Michigan, where I live,and there is more snow on the ground than I have seen even in any January in perhaps my entire life. Usually snow melts away significantly in February, but nothing even close to that happened this year, and instead we've had record cold for days in a row.

    The Heavily Increased Demand for More Plows Has Already Started

    Now, there is the question of whether this ice age theory is correct, but there is a second question: Let's assume the ice age theory is correct, but then how long will it be until we are in an all-out ice age scenario wherein PLOW's shares will rocket? It would seem that the harsh winter we are currently in, and what is being called the "polar vortex" (which is mostly likely a consequence of a cooled sun changing earth weather overall) would already be resulting in increased demand in Douglas's products. Regardless, we might be able to stop guessing when Douglas Dynamics (PLOW) reports next week-if it's not too early to see the harsh winter affecting Douglas's numbers.

    On a related note, this second question-how long will it be until we are in an all-out ice age scenario wherein PLOW's shares will rocket?-may be misguided. If we are entering into a prolonged ice or cooling age of some sort, we would only be in the very first ice age winter, presumably far milder than those to come. But it appears that Wall Street believes this harsher winter we've undergone this year is already influencing PLOW's numbers, as seen in the way PLOW is slightly breaking out of its multi-year trading range the past few days. So, if this is only the start, demand should be explosive in, say, five years, when hypothetically speaking, Ann Arbor, Michigan, for example, could have a "year without summer", or snow does not fully melt until June in Minneapolis and returns in early to mid-August, or where snow-cover blankets Atlanta throughout winter in a way that is similar to Coldwater, Michigan. The result can only be that Douglas Dynamics will experience radically increased demand for their products.

    Disclosure: I am long PLOW.
    Aug 12 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growlife: Why It Got Halted And What You Need To Know Before Trading Resumes On Friday, April 25th [View article]
    Thanks for the excellent research!
    Apr 25 09:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SEC Halts Trading Of Growlife: Here's Why [View article]
    oh, so i say i am moving money into vuzi and different sectors (like everyone else does here at SA in comments and stock talk), and now i am doing a pump and dump? To be honest, what I was doing is seeing if anybody else had any constructive comment on VUZI since it's hard to find new info. Also, all your comments about VUZI are obviously wrong, a four second internet lookup on the mechanics of the stock would point that out. Sounds like you are just mad because you probably just got burned bad on PHOT.
    Apr 14 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Glass Just Got More Attractive [View article]
    You should have brought up $VUZI in this article, and how their already existent product solves basically all of the google glass problems: VUZI actually has a working product, they have a low priced one (compared to glass), etc
    Apr 12 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Glass Just Got More Attractive [View article]
    I think the assumption that a $1500 item will shrink about two thirds in price relatively quickly is not a careful statement--I mean, I can see the intuitive pull that assumption has, but I think it's really just mainly a questionable guess, and I think it'd be better to focus on the negative that high price means for the product. I say this for two REALLY OBVIOUS BUT IMPORTANT REASONS: 1. Obviously fewer will have financial ability to acquire a google glass, but more interestingly, 2. I think there could be a theft issue: if people are wearing these $1000+ gadgets on their faces, well that's a theft concern, isn't it? That is not like a cell phone that costs one or two hundred dollars, but a different more valuable item all together. I Can't help imagine the risk of muggings and so forth resulting, theoretically speaking. I am not saying wearable a won't happen, they will (the way the big players are racing to develop products seems to indicate the reality of wearables in our future--wow will,that put us into a sci fi world). I am just saying this theft issue becomes a real negative perhaps of glass that is not being discussed much, and is driven by the crazy price. Doesn't VUZI solve this issue?
    Apr 12 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growlife: Taking A Page From Amazon [View article]
    Ok small cap machine, I guess you were right all along? huh, amazing. Too bad, so many will get burned on the 25th.
    Apr 12 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SEC Halts Trading Of Growlife: Here's Why [View article]
    I have thought and thought and thought about VUZI, wondering if that's really going to take off. Appears Google glass not even close to competing, from what I've read (not sure if that's right, though), VUZI has some revolutionary way to 'move' light around that makes their product possible, and I have wondered: Will people really wear these things in their visual field?, and I was thinking: what about the guy on the subway, he can watch virtual reality stuff on the way to work, or the person who does not have time to check emails so they can do it on the elevator to work, etc. Seems there are endless scenarios where people will want the wearable, and that there's really a potential here. I found myself toying w/ the idea of buying some virtual reality glasses, and noted my own interest in an actual purchase. Things like that really have me bullish on VUZI. Also, I envision a future where people will bump into things because they will be walking around w/ these AR/VR devices, paying attention to the screen, not walking, for example.
    Apr 10 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SEC Halts Trading Of Growlife: Here's Why [View article]
    Going to be interesting to see how this all turns out. I have been getting worried about the cannabis sector. Too much of a 'wild west' phenomenon that I intuit underlying much of it. Been moving money to $VUZI and wearables stocks, and to medical robots, and graphene. Hard to make predictions, but it seems $VUZI could be like the Iphone the day before sales started on Iphone 1.
    Apr 10 03:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalizing On Cannabis: Key Addition To GrowLife Management Team Solidifies Story [View article]
    Does anyone have any comment or info on ICBU, or, more specifically, the ICBU + MEDT + EXMT trio (they are, from what I can tell, all partnered). I got into ICBU a while ago with a small position because I was not sure about it due to lack of information, but I thought it looked interesting, being a decent hydro company and all, but now ICBU just got that $1 million investment from that famous small cap investor recently, that really got my attention. Hard to find info on these stocks, wondering if anybody has any ideas or info on these. These are all nanocaps, in a hot space, so the upside is there, if these are 'the real deal.'
    Apr 3 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manhattan Scientifics: If Potential Blockbusters Make It to Market, Payoff Could Be Huge [View article]
    Ok, I see the point about how great the metal technology is, to make it stronger and lighter, but here's my problem: isn't that what the graphene revolution is going to do, but only much much better than MHTX's invention? And I don't think the graphene revolution is still sci fi, I am seeing news stories pretty reguarly now about how graphene is being used in commercial processes:
    So, while I like MHTX, it seems the graphene scenario is the better bet.
    Mar 28 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dazed And Confused By Growlife - Shares Are Worth A Small Fraction Of Their Current Price [View article]
    AERO not really a genuine pot stock. Only partially so. TRTC is a better comparison to PHOT. I like ICBU, too, but it's hard to get much information. MEDT is teaming up w/ ICBU, and I like MEDT a bit, and from the bit I know about them (good financials, decent equipment sector, etc.). I think the Canadian high flyers (pun intended) may do well over the next month, ENRT, ATTBF, LXRP, etc. And to switch gears, I think the graphene industry is starting, from what I read about some industries around the world contain companies starting to use it in commercial goods. Anyway...
    Mar 21 02:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dazed And Confused By Growlife - Shares Are Worth A Small Fraction Of Their Current Price [View article]
    Oh, ok, so, again, as I asked before (but you did not answer), you are saying that virtually all the financial sites online (yahoo finance, etc. ) are regularly/routinely wrong about market cap data, and you are the one who has the correct info? Um... Seems a little outlandish. Put yourself in my shoes; would you believe that?
    Mar 20 09:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dazed And Confused By Growlife - Shares Are Worth A Small Fraction Of Their Current Price [View article]
    To directly answer your question, small cap machine, PHOT 'should' have the market cap it does because that's how the stock market works: companies are rarely based on 'valuation' (whatever that even means--that's just technobabble). If they were, the IVFH (ticker), for example, would be worth far far more than it's value right now, the dot-com bubble would not have happened in any way that it did, the Dow would not be at 16 and change, and on and on and on. Prices are based on emotion--the emotion of buyers trying to profit in a way they deem successful, and if they see a stock that they think will make them money, they will buy, regardless of it's supposed/theoretical 'valuation'. This is how pricing works, it is a buying process that is empirically observable to us all each day as we watch the market go crazy, but you just scratch your head wondering, 'why are all these people buying?!' and the answer of course is: TO PROFIT, and not to attempt to give a company's stock it's 'proper valuation', as you seem to erroneously (non-empirically) believe.
    So, you wanted an 'intelligent response', as you put it, well... The most empirical response is the most intelligent (since the more empirical one's thinking is, the more scientific it is), and that's what I just gave you. You don't seem to be an empirical person/writer, however, so you may have trouble grasping these ideas, as you are stuck in 'idea land' (the non-empirical).
    Also, as an aside, I think your articles are surprisingly careless. Mainly for their heavy theoretical leanings, and your emotive contexts. I contacted SA to complain about your writing. Not sure if it will change things, but I don't think your writing is not professional enough to be posted on, for example, Yahoo Finance. To say a company is shady, in your (apparently surprisingly biased opinion) because it merged with a company with the same headquarters address, really shocked me. That's very careless on your part, and I was very taken by that comment since that's why my own business is currently doing: we started to align with a competitor in 2012, and we grooved so well together shortly after that we started sharing (and even splicing) our office space and resources, and when we complete our merger in 2016, it will be by two companies with the same address. See, you don't think things through: you just quickly assume things that feel strange to you, and then write about it. You seem to just find something you don't understand, and then sensationalize it (or attempt to at least) because you are not thinking through all the scenarios.. We are all trying to get educated on this site, and your writing is not contributing to that. It's just a time-robber, frankly.
    Mar 19 12:55 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment