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Stock market technical analysis, chart trend analysis, and chart pattern recognition.
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  • Dow Jones Trend Analysis - 1/29/2010
    It was the third consecutive negative week for the Dow Jones (^DJI). During the week, the ^DJI dropped -105.65 points, or -1.04%, and closed at 10067.33 on Friday, January 29, 2010. ^DJI was trading on average weekly trading volume. Read More ...

    A medium-term uptrend had started on March 9, 2009 at 6440.08 and reached 10767.15 on January 14, 2010. ^DJI gained -4327.07 points, or -67.19%, in 44 weeks.

    A short-term downtrend had started on January 14, 2010 at 10767.15 and reached 10023.80 on January 28, 2010. Dow Jones lost 743.35 points, or 6.9%, in 14 days. Price is near the trend low.

    There are two possible scenarios that we would like to consider.

    1. The Dow Jones medium-term uptrend is completed. It has formed the three waves ABC structure. A new medium-term downtrend has started on January 14. The current short-term down wave that has started on January 14 is a first sub wave of the new medium-term downtrend.

    2. The Dow Jones medium-term uptrend is still in progress. The current short-term down wave that started on January 14 is a forth sub wave of the current medium term uptrend.

    In both cases, the short-term downtrend is close to conclusion. Short-term rally may start soon. Daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are oversold. The short-term down wave is near the support trend line. Almost 20% of S&P 500 members have an uptrend support alert.

    If scenario #1 is in play, the current down wave may take longer and break the medium-term uptrend support line. The reversal might be weak and short. Dow Jones will not reach the recent high (10767.15).

    If scenario #2 unfolds, the support should hold, the reversal may start sooner and Dow Jones will move toward the medium-term uptrend resistance line which is currently near 11120.

    Dow Jones Industrial Average
    Technical Stock Market Timing System
    Tags: DIA, SPY
    Jan 31 5:27 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Weekly Stock Market Overview - 1/29/2010
    All the major US indices were negative. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped -105.65 points or -1.04%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped -17.89 points or -1.64%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped -57.94 points or -2.63%. Read More ...
    The Financial sector was the strongest sector (-0.01%) last week followed by the Consumer Staples sector (-0.34%). The Materials sector was the worst performing sector (-4.71%) of the week followed by the Technology sector (-3.24%).
    The Healthcare sector is the most overvalued sector followed by Services, while Regional Airlines, Drug Delivery, and Publishing - Books are among the most overvalued industries. The Conglomerates sector is the most oversold sector followed by Technology, while Wireless Communications, Security Software & Svcs, and Multimedia/Graphics Sftwr are among the most oversold industries.
    Weekly S&P 500 Winners
    38.76%EKEastman KodakConsumer Discretionary
    9.22%SHWSherwin-WilliamsConsumer Discretionary
    7.89%TLABTellabs, Inc.Information Technology
    Weekly S&P 500 Loosers
    -19.22%XUnited States Steel Corp.Materials
    -16.22%QCOMQUALCOMM Inc.Information Technology
    -15.82%AVYAvery Dennison Corp.Industrials
    Weekly S&P 500 Alerts
    Stock Market AlertsCount
    Downtrend Exhaustion2
    Downtrend Broken Resistance 16
    Uptrend Support93
    Uptrend Exhaustion1
    Uptrend Broken Support3
    Downtrend Resistance1
    Jan 29 10:27 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Standard & Poor's 500 Index Trend Analysis - 1/22/2010
    The short trading week on Wall Street started in a positive note. S&P 500 index has reached 1150.45 on Tuesday, the highest level since October 2008. After losing 5.1% in the past three days, S&P 500 closed at 1091.76 on Friday. For the week, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped -44.27 points or -3.90%, and it is now in negative territory for the year (-23.34 points or 2.1%).

    The recent market rally had started on March 5, 2009 at 666.79 and reached 1150.45 on Tuesday, January 19. S&P 500 index has gained 483.66 points, or more than 73.5%.

    The sharp decline did not come as a surprise. The S&P 500 index technical indicators were extremely overbought and had bearish divergence on daily and weekly time frames.

    Usually the market top coincides with high consumer expectations. According to the Consumer Confidence Survey, the US Consumer Confidence index (NYSE:CCI) posted yet another gain in December as expectations for the short-term future increased to the highest level (75.6) since December 2007. The Present Situation Index, however, continued to lose ground and remains at a 26-year low.

    Weekly Lane's Stochastic is still overbought. During the week, MACD line has moved below its signal line; the price has crossed below the 50 Day Moving Average and has closed on Friday below the lower Bollinger Band. All these signals usually indicate an up trend reversal and a beginning of a strong down wave.

    Standard & Poor's 500
    Technical Stock Market Timing System
    Tags: SPY
    Jan 24 4:44 PM | Link | Comment!
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