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BJLMD

BJLMD
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  • Is The Dow Overvalued? Comparing Historical Valuations With Fundamentals [View article]
    I really appreciate this comment. People see what they want to see. Also, it is difficult to compare P/E ratios before, during, and after Quantitative Easing. People forget that we have a central bank presently printing money. Although they have begun to taper, when they were printing 85billion a month, that equated to roughly one third of the federal budget that was subsidized. This has had an effect to keep the governments borrowing costs as low as possible, enabling this economy to progress. When QE stops, presumably higher interest rates will follow and profits will fall for corporations. Further, many state and municipal governments are barely solvent at our current low interest levels, so when interest rates do go up they will struggle to keep people on payroll.

    The stock markets do no exist in a vacuum. They are grossly affected by accounting and policy.
    Aug 19 06:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine Exploration's (OMEX) CEO Greg Stemm on Q2 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I am not afraid of the tabloid market reserch from Meson Capital. I recognize that there is risk with any company such as this. I am long on OMEX and have been for all the right reasons and for a very long time. I have used these price lows to accumulate more OMEX. Anyone who has concern with management or the oversight by the board of this company has not had any direct communication with them. They are aproachabe and accountable to shareholders. There are very few stocks in my portfolio that make me excited such as this one. The only way OMEX fails because of Meson Capital's short campaign is when shareholders such as myself sell in panic.

    I am glad that management is tightening their belt. I am glad that they are responding to the marketplace and criticism appropriately. This shows that the shorts will only help forge this into a better company with less speculative ambitions and more realistic goals for shareholder value.
    Aug 12 07:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No, Gold Is Not A Hedge Against A Financial Crisis [View article]
    yes, riding the wave that presents itself is always profitable until the wave crashes. Unless you are in the inner circle of Goldman Sachs and get the nod to sell your holdings before it happens, most of us ride these waves and then loose some of it when it corrects. That's the best we can hope for. My gold is only represents 5%-10% of my holdings. I am not wishing for my gold to be lifesaving some day. I hope my other assets maintain their value. But gold is just part of my basic diversification.
    Jul 4 06:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No, Gold Is Not A Hedge Against A Financial Crisis [View article]
    I buy gold as insurance not investment. I see something happening here over the last century that represents a paradigm shift from an old gold standard toward Fiat currency and now beyond into digital money that exists as an entry in an account. Modern Monetary Theory is our system of economics at present and relies entirely on a faith based system that the data we see on a bank account screen is something that is really usable currency to buy the things we need. The majority of money does not even exist as cash anymore.

    I think gold will have its ups and downs with the economy with and without manipulation of various kinds. I hold gold not for sovereign debt debt crisis reasons or asset class bubbles but rather in case their is a currency crisis or complete collapse of faith in a digital system. This can happen just like a run on the bank. If all the depositors of a bank showed up demanding their fiat cash, I don't believe that enough exists to cover. Gold is a convenient store of wealth. It becomes more convenient as its value goes up in a crisis. If you think it is difficult to store gold in your house, it is even more difficult to store significant wealth in the form of cash.

    Storage of gold is much harder than clicking on the internet and logging into your accounts and seeing the value of your Schwab portfolio. But if Schwab goes bust like World Bank, the digital entry becomes worthless and can disappear. Much of our wealth is not insured via guarantors such as FDIC. It CAN disappear! Maybe not under present conditions but don't think the present system is infallible.

    To me gold is just a standard that humans have chosen for the last 5000 years that ultimately keeps the bankers honest. It is the standard and has always been. the fact that we have become complacent with the convenience of our digital money system is independent of the fact that the bankers can print money but can not print gold.

    Keeping 5%-10% of your wealth in gold is never a bad idea, but understand its true value lies in what it can do for you if the sh-t hits the fan. No you are not going to go down to the supermarket and use Krugerands to buy food. But in a real disaster or crisis, $100,000 worth of gold might buy you and your family safe passage to someplace else! ( Look at what happens in the third world with kidnappings).

    And If the sh-t never hits the fan, you get to keep the premium that you paid for the gold. I wish I could have back all the premiums I paid over the years for my homeowners or car insurance. Good luck to all.
    Jul 2 07:44 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    Reprinted from previous post:
    I believe I see something different taking place. We are seeing a finalization of the bankers efforts to eliminate a gold standard. Not the governments gold standard, that went away years ago, but rather the remnants of the peoples cultural hold to the concept that gold should have value. Those that support the concept of Modern Monetary Theory, need us old screw balls to go away so that they can continue to print money endlessly. Us gold bugs are a becoming farther and fewer between. Those that believe in MMT see dollars like points on a scoreboard, something that is conceptually limitless and need not have any restraints. In a digital world it is easy to believe this. Its like when the communists came in to China they had to inflict a new order with new beliefs that the party was supreme. So the communists marched through the villages and burned the temples. In time, only the old floks remembered the old ways. Thats what they have been doing with gold this past year. I believe it is intentional. Its been bashed left and right, but maybe people are starting to see through this, if not in our own country at least in places like china. You cant fool people for ever.

    If we were on a pure gold standard there would not be enough gold in the world to support the massive expansion of money and economy that has occurred in the past 50 years. So there is some merit to MMT in so much as it enables rapid expansion of economy. My problem is not with MMT theory, but rather in human nature as in the end, just like communism, nothing is so altruistic and somebody gets greedy and when people figure out that they are getting cheated of something, theory falls apart and people run for something they can get there hands on.
    Its like musical chairs. When the music is playing, (ie the stock markets are humming, and people are making money) everyone runs circles around the chairs and nobody is bothered that there aren't enough chairs for all the people when the music stops. While the music is playing we are indifferent to the obvious inevitability that the music always stops eventually.
    I hold gold as insurance not investment. Hope mine is never worth much in my lifetime. Hope that my other real investments are. But because I know that there is always the obvious inevitable likely hood that in my lifetime the music will stop for at least a period of time, I hold gold. So don't tell me that gold has no value. That it is just a hunk of nothing. I dont care if you see it that way cause I know that you do only because the music is playing and those that stand to profit from the current paradigm have turned the music way up loud. Good luck to all.
    Feb 24 06:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold continues 2014 run higher [View news story]
    I believe I see something different taking place. We are seeing a finalization of the bankers efforts to eliminate a gold standard. Not the governments gold standard, that went away years ago, but rather the remnants of the peoples cultural hold to the concept that gold should have value. Those that support the concept of Modern Monetary Theory, need us old screw balls to go away so that they can continue to print money endlessly. Us gold bugs are a becoming farther and fewer between. Those that believe in MMT see dollars like points on a scoreboard, something that is conceptually limitless and need not have any restraints. In a digital world it is easy to believe this. Its like when the communists came in to China they had to inflict a new order with new beliefs that the party was supreme. So the communists marched through the villages and burned the temples. In time, only the old floks remembered the old ways. Thats what they have been doing with gold this past year. I believe it is intentional. Its been bashed left and right, but maybe people are starting to see through this, if not in our own country at least in places like china. You cant fool people for ever.

    If we were on a pure gold standard there would not be enough gold in the world to support the massive expansion of money and economy that has occurred in the past 50 years. So there is some merit to MMT in so much as it enables rapid expansion of economy. My problem is not with MMT theory, but rather in human nature as in the end, just like communism, nothing is so altruistic and somebody gets greedy and when people figure out that they are getting cheated of something, theory falls apart and people run for something they can get there hands on.
    Its like musical chairs. When the music is playing, (ie the stock markets are humming, and people are making money) everyone runs circles around the chairs and nobody is bothered that there aren't enough chairs for all the people when the music stops. While the music is playing we are indifferent to the obvious inevitability that the music always stops eventually.
    I hold gold as insurance not investment. Hope mine is never worth much in my lifetime. Hope that my other real investments are. But because I know that there is always the obvious inevitable likely hood that in my lifetime the music will stop for at least a period of time, I hold gold. So don't tell me that gold has no value. That it is just a hunk of nothing. I dont care if you see it that way cause I know that you do only because the music is playing and those that stand to profit from the current paradigm have turned the music way up loud. Good luck to all.
    Feb 11 06:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold ETF Flows Reveal Speculators Have Had Enough [View article]
    I believe I see something different taking place. We are seeing a finalization of the bankers efforts to eliminate a gold standard. Not the governments gold standard, that went away years ago, but rather the remnants of the peoples cultural hold to the concept that gold should have value. Those that support the concept of Modern Monetary Theory, need us old screw balls to go away so that they can continue to print money endlessly. Us gold bugs are a becoming farther and fewer between. Those that believe in MMT see dollars like points on a scoreboard, something that is conceptually limitless and need not have any restraints. In a digital world it is easy to believe this. Its like when the communists came in to China they had to inflict a new order with new beliefs that the party was supreme. So the communists marched through the villages and burned the temples. In time, only the old floks remembered the old ways. Thats what is happening with gold. I believe it is intentional.

    If we were on a pure gold standard there would not be enough gold in the world to support the massive expansion of money and economy that has occurred in the past 50 years. Gold would have to be worth $100,000 an ounce or more. So there is some merit to MMT in so much as it enables rapid expansion of economy. My problem is not with MMT theory, but rather in human nature as in the end, just like communism, nothing is so altruistic and somebody gets greedy and when people figure out that they are getting cheated of something, theory falls apart and people run for something they can get there hands on. Its like musical chairs. When the music is playing, (ie the stock markets are humming, and people are making money) everyone runs circles around the chairs and nobody is bothered that there aren't enough chairs for all the people when the music stops. While the music is playing we are indifferent to the obvious inevitability that the music always stops eventually.

    I hold gold as insurance not investment. Hope mine is never worth much in my lifetime. Hope that my other real investments are. But because I know that there is always the obvious inevitable likely hood that in my lifetime the music will stop for at least a period of time, I hold gold. So don't tell me that gold has no value. That it is just a hunk of nothing. I dont care if you see it that way cause I know that you do only because the music is playing and those that stand to profit from the current paradigm have turned the music way up loud. Good luck to all.
    Jan 28 07:06 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odyssey Marine: An Open Letter To Ryan Morris Of Meson Capital [View article]
    You are an idiot, probably Meson's best friend or cronie. Your comment shows nothing but ignorance. If you people do not want to invest in this company then don't! But leave it alone and stop manipulating the stock valuation with your short-selling misleading bullcrap. I am long on OMEX and don't care what its share value is today. It has always been volatile and news driven. I will probably pick up more at this low price. I see where they are heading and believe it will be worth much more down the line. Im in no rush. I do not feel mislead by the management but find that you people are misleading everyone with crap. How would someone go after their silver three miles deep in the 1800's? Are you kidding me. It is not like they have no track record of recovery. They have pulled tons of silver from places nobody could have ever considered. Give them some credit. Its like pulling a rabbit out of your as_. They have done this several times, and if you understand the mineral rights issues for marine mining, this is even potentially bigger If it ever plays out. I have seen people invest in long shot tech companies with no product in site for years ahead with less criticism. Come on really? You must be Meson's cousin or brother!
    Nov 24 09:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stocks Not In A Bubble; I'll Tell You What Is, Though [View article]
    James yes you are correct, the budget deficit is likely to be down by 37% this year subsequent to sequester, expiration of payroll tax breaks, and shutdown. These are certainly trends in the right direction. But it still leaves us with nearly a trillion in deficit for the year. By historical perspective this is still quite high. For the 37 years preceding 2008 the average federal deficit was approximately 120 billion, and we are still seeing nearly a trillion in deficit spending this year. So the Government is still into significant deficit territory. Just because we see a 37% reduction in deficit spending does not mean that the government isn't still supporting corporate earnings. I do not think we should expect the relationship to be linear. I am not rooting for things to fail. I hope my skepticism and caution are all wrong. But I do think that we are treading in unchartered waters and that there is no historical precedent for comparison. So, because there is no historical perspective, the burden of proof is on those who support the current policy, not on those who question and challenge it. In the end, modern monetary theory will ultimately succeed or fail us. The final chapter has not been written yet. Best of luck to all.
    Nov 20 08:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Dividend Sustainability Analysis (Post Q3 2013 Earnings) - Part 2 [View article]
    Thank you for your analysis. My shares are in a 401K with 15 years to go for retirement. Based on what I read here and elsewhere my gut is to hold long and not worry about the volatile environment at present. I am reinvesting the dividends to buy some at this lower price. I have read some analysis that would speak otherwise, but my gut is to hold here.

    I think that there is definitely some risk here, but that risk seems to have some dividend reward attached to it. There is still some room for it to fall and still be a good dividend. AGNC is less than 5% of my portfolio, and part of basic diversification. What are we supposed to do? Park all our money into Equities with the Dow at 16000?? I think there is greater risk with that!

    I don't believe that the FED can taper without catastrophic outcome. It is the only thing that now holds up our economy. 85 billion each month represents 1/3rd of the Federal Budget. Drop that from the economic equation and you will have chaos. So although they talk of taper, it is more and more becoming a mythological hypothetical threat rather than a likely policy.

    Point is, it is easy for others to look at the decline in AGNC and mReits over the past year and say that there is risk associated with the inevitable rising of interest rates But there is as much risk in Equities with the DOW at 16000. There is no place at present to park your money without risk if you want to try and make it grow. The question is who is going to try to reward you for the risk that you are taking. The MReit's must distribute profit. Whatever the scenario, I put my trust in the management of AGNC to manage this portion of my retirement portfolio. Good luck to all.
    Nov 19 07:11 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Sell While You Still Have A Chance [View article]
    Yes that was sarcasm. I don't mean to be disrespectful. I read your posts about gold. I differ with what you believe about gold but find your analysis helpful for the present trends. I was merely implying that the system at present is designed to benefit a small few inside an inner circle. It's is why the top 1% has gone from owning 25% of the nations wealth 25 years ago, to now over 40%. The rest of us have to wait and see what happens and can only do the best we can. Good thing i don't need my money for 15+ years, because you are probably very right about gold for the moment. We'll see what happens down the line.
    Nov 11 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stocks Not In A Bubble; I'll Tell You What Is, Though [View article]
    You can not look at P/E and compare where we are now to the past. Price is being driven by QE and E is driven by government deficit spending. Without QE, there could be no ongoing deficit spending because the rate to refinance of 16 trillion dollars of debt is getting a direct subsidy by the FED. If and when tapering occurs, Earnings will invariably go down and so will the Price side of the equation. The FED is buying $85 billion of treasuries every month. That is literally one third of the federal budget. Do you really not see that the whole system is non-market right now. I hope Modern Monetary Theory and money printing can deliver us to the promised land, but I do not think it will. And if it fails in the end, we will all look back and think how obvious it was and how right in front of our face it was. Best of luck to all.
    Nov 9 06:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Trust ETF Falling As Expected [View article]
    Mr Cox. Thank you for another interesting article. I am always interested to read what you have to say. I think that some of us gold bugs are misunderstood. It is not gold per-se that I like, but rather I have a moderate dis-trust for the fiat currency system. I would never put a significant portion of my portfolio into gold. Just keep 5% in gold and silver more as an insurance policy rather than an investment. I hope in the end my gold is worthless, that would mean that my other dollar based investments retain value. I have read much about MMT and still do not understand how money printing can perpetually work. I also have concern that the dollar will ultimately be replaced by a basket of currencies and although this is not a doomsday outcome, i think that many Americans are naive and don't believe that this could happen. It is called "normalcy bias".

    To me, it is not the value of gold at any one given time that matters, but the belief that at times when economics goes awry people will seem to look toward gold as a basis or standard. Maybe that's foolish but they do.

    For fiat money to be most successful, there must be an ongoing faith in it. The fact that there are some who buck that faith and still believe that a gold standard had value, seems to be the root of the controversy of gold bugs vs gold bears. It is almost like when communism came into Russia or China, they had to replace religion. Religion conflicted with communism so they burned down the temples so that they could institute the new dogma of communism. Out with the old, in with the new. The old priests were ridiculed by the school children who were taught that their beliefs were worthless and old. At times, that is what seems to be happening here. The bigger conflict seems to be a battle of economic theory of those who hold to the old traditional gold standard based system vs those who want to let it go for the new digital fiat currency system that may or may not better meet the world's needs.

    I do know that the burden of proof is on the those who advocate all this stimulus, as there really isn't any historical precedent to support what they are doing. That does not mean that it will not work, and I am not rooting for them to fail. I hope that the new (not really new) dogma of MMT (modern monetary theory) holds up and delivers us to the promised land. But in the end if it does not, my small allocation in gold and silver will insure that I have something left. At present when gold and silver go down, I dollar cost average and get more. I am not really looking for short term speculation of any kind. Gold and silver are going to be small allocations in my portfolio for potentially 15-20 years. I find that both sides of this controversy are right and wrong for the wrong reasons. There really is a middle ground. Best of luck to all.
    Nov 6 06:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Trust ETF Falling As Expected [View article]
    I think Mr Cox is right for the moment. The money printing is raging the market so gold is not popular for the moment. If you look at a graph of the Dow to Gold ratio for the last 100 years you will see that the volatility increases over time. The system is designed to create flux so that the "ruling class" can profit from the shifts. We are just the pawns. This is not really about weather the shiny stuff has value but rather, a shift of where value goes and how to profit during these shifts. Now the market has value, then when it collapses then gold has value, then the market, and so on and so on. Its just another day of business for some who don't really care about the asset, just making money on the shifts. IMO.
    Nov 5 09:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investigative Report Questions Odyssey Marine's New Offshore Subsidiaries And Undersea Mining [View article]
    wow, a whole 90 minutes. Glad you took control of my investment. Thank you so much for caring only about yourself.
    Nov 4 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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