TN hick

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    • A Closer Look at the Treasury's GSE Preferred Stock Purchase Plan [view article]
      The Federal Reserve and other federal banking regulators said in a joint statement Sunday that "a limited number of smaller institutions" have significant holdings of common or preferred stock shares in Fannie and Freddie, and that regulators were "prepared to work with these institutions to develop capital-restoration plans." (translation - there is about $36 BILLION on banks balance sheet of PREFERRED shares - since the banks are in so much trouble we cannot let that fall or it will cause even more pain in our financial system = more of your tax dollars to make sure banks making private party investments are made whole. Repeat, your tax dollars will be used to make sure banks investments in Fannie and Freddie preferred is whole - enjoy) Sep 07 07:54 PM
    • A Closer Look at the Treasury's GSE Preferred Stock Purchase Plan [view article]
      wow! the DOW futures have jumped from 27 to 232;
      should make for a good inverse/put entry       Sep 07 07:42 PM
    • A Closer Look at the Treasury's GSE Preferred Stock Purchase Plan [view article]
      my four puts for this are KEY, MFA, NCT, SOV

      E NUFF SED - why will this signal the end of the bear market?

      As I read some of the announcements, the growth in mortgage finance holdings will be limited to a $200 Billion increase before the inventory must decline by 10% per year.

      I think a large part of the increase limit will be soaked up by existing mortgage debt moving from the private sector banks to the GSEs, the actual purchase of newly initiated mortgages to clear the housing glut will be only a small part. Consequently, no healthy pickup of economic activity in the housing sector.

      Second, as stated above, common and preferred equity holders will see the market value of their holdings drop 20-40%. Since a sizable portion of the preferred is held by the likes of KEY, MFA, NCT, and SOV [the four I identified as have the highest percent of their holding in the GSEs], these banks will also take a hit [dangerously close to fatal for SOV]. So, this will be no help for the financial sector.

      Now tell me again, why this will signal the end of the bear market? What is going to be helped?

      Yes, the market may react tomorrow with a giant up-move, but at some point in the near future, the bear is going to re-assert itself.

      As for the preferential treatment being given the foreign banks; what good is their "safe" dollar-denominated debt instrument in a falling dollar market?

      In my mind, the real danger is a dollar-caused crash of the Chinese market/economy.

      JMHO       Sep 07 07:31 PM
    • June Existing Home Sales Dip While Supply Rises [view article]
      opphs - my data ain't much better; should have use 1 - 590 / 735 => ~ 19.7%

      but the positive bias is still there

      also, for the five sectors cited, the decline is about -17.2% y/y

      Jul 27 08:07 AM
    • June Existing Home Sales Dip While Supply Rises [view article]
      something ain't right 'bout this"

      "Existing condominium and co-op sales rose 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units in June from 580,000 in May, but are 19.7 percent below the 735,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price4 was $224,200 in June, which is 2.2 percent lower than June 2007.

      for example: 1 - 580 / 735 => ~ -0.2109 or about -21.1% decline y/y

      aside from the bias to the positive spin [i.e.; "...rose 1.7% [m/m omited], this makes you wonder about the accuracy of data that you can't verify

      oh well, more koolaid please       Jul 27 07:50 AM
    • MBIA's GIC Exposure Could Trigger a Liquidity Crisis [view article]
      any who else [ABK, ???] have material quantities of GIC's on their books? Jun 29 11:47 AM
    • Endless Winter for New Home Sales [view article]
      SRS Jun 29 11:35 AM
    • Fed Credibility? [view article]
      the FED's role, it seems, is to protect the "[investment] banks" at any cost; by buying time and depreciating the cost of the losses via inflation Jun 29 10:46 AM
    • Late Payments on Loans the Highest in 16 Years: The Pooring of America Continues [view article]
      TraderMark - My take - it is not in "Wall Street's" interest to face reality, it is in their interest to postpone recognition of the magnitude of the loses due to their gluttony as long as possible; to spread the losses over a longer period of time, keeping the amounts "under the radar"; and to continue to cohere the Fed into inflating a part of the total to zero. The Fed is a willing participant because of the revolving door between Wall Street, the Federal Reserve System, and the Treasury. But do not consider this an economic problem; it is a political problem. As long as the masses elect to perpetuate the "system" nothing will change. T. Jefferson [the original one - declaration signer] is credited with saying that our form of government is lost when the majority of voters realize that they can rob the richest minority via legislative actions. I say that we are there, we now have the majority that pay no federal income tax, but expect/demand [and vote to continue] government delivered entitlements. [remember, the original Constitution only granted the federal government the authority to collect "tariffs" on commerce] May 08 07:33 PM
    • Back to 1998: Lessons from the G7 Then and Now [view article]
      eliminate "off-balance sheet" financing, in the market place and in government!!!! Apr 13 03:12 PM
    • Homebuilder Bailout: An Updated Analysis [view article]
      remember Uncle Milton .. all dollars vote, just big dollars vote BIG

      Small town, it is not middle America that elects, it is the campaign contributions from corporate america that enables the advertising that elects

      Jim, the corporate contributions ultimately come from the consuming public, so it is not just the behavior at the polls that will have to change, but also the behavior in the market place

      Bren, and who is going to define "qualifications&q... when more than half of the public qualified to vote intuitively knows that through their vote they can use the taxing power of the government to expropriate the wealth of the upper half to subsidize the lower half's lifestyle

      frustrated, the bluff worked, didn't it

      'nuff said,       Apr 13 03:05 PM
    • Time to Get Serious About Utilizing Short ETFs [view article]
      the missing symbol for the Ultrashort Real Estate is SRS Mar 30 12:25 PM
    • Get Out of Commodities - Barron's [view article]
      congrats Barron's - you have successfully called six of the last zero commodity tops (yea, like duh)

      chistletoe - that's $5/bbl (for 2-gallon barrel), get with the program

      User 167026 - DO NOT put all your nest eggs in one asset basket (and cash, or FDIC-insured MM, is a position)

      Mar 30 11:51 AM
    • The Current Market according to the Dow Theory [view article]
      technical analysis indicates overhead resistance for the DJIA at 12800, I have placed my bets on the scenario that the Dow will test and fade a 1000 points
      but what would a TN hick know       Mar 30 11:12 AM
    • The Bear Necessities: Law of the Jungle Rules [view article]
      me thinks you avoid "moral hazard" by 100% recapture of the salary, bonuses, and severance of departing directors and corporate officers; 65% recapture from all other executive and supervisory personnel BEFORE any mark-down of equity

      or in other words, stick it to the pigs that brung us to this sorry dance       Mar 16 01:57 PM
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