TN hick's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/83788/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/94307-a-closer-look-at-the-treasury-s-gse-preferred-stock-purchase-plan?source=feed#comment-247816 247816 Sun, 07 Sep 2008 19:54:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94307-a-closer-look-at-the-treasury-s-gse-preferred-stock-purchase-plan?source=feed#comment-247807 247807 should make for a good inverse/put entry]]> Sun, 07 Sep 2008 19:42:22 -0400 should make for a good inverse/put entry]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94307-a-closer-look-at-the-treasury-s-gse-preferred-stock-purchase-plan?source=feed#comment-247801 247801
E NUFF SED - why will this signal the end of the bear market?

As I read some of the announcements, the growth in mortgage finance holdings will be limited to a $200 Billion increase before the inventory must decline by 10% per year.

I think a large part of the increase limit will be soaked up by existing mortgage debt moving from the private sector banks to the GSEs, the actual purchase of newly initiated mortgages to clear the housing glut will be only a small part. Consequently, no healthy pickup of economic activity in the housing sector.

Second, as stated above, common and preferred equity holders will see the market value of their holdings drop 20-40%. Since a sizable portion of the preferred is held by the likes of KEY, MFA, NCT, and SOV [the four I identified as have the highest percent of their holding in the GSEs], these banks will also take a hit [dangerously close to fatal for SOV]. So, this will be no help for the financial sector.

Now tell me again, why this will signal the end of the bear market? What is going to be helped?

Yes, the market may react tomorrow with a giant up-move, but at some point in the near future, the bear is going to re-assert itself.

As for the preferential treatment being given the foreign banks; what good is their "safe" dollar-denominated debt instrument in a falling dollar market?

In my mind, the real danger is a dollar-caused crash of the Chinese market/economy.

JMHO]]> Sun, 07 Sep 2008 19:31:08 -0400
E NUFF SED - why will this signal the end of the bear market?

As I read some of the announcements, the growth in mortgage finance holdings will be limited to a $200 Billion increase before the inventory must decline by 10% per year.

I think a large part of the increase limit will be soaked up by existing mortgage debt moving from the private sector banks to the GSEs, the actual purchase of newly initiated mortgages to clear the housing glut will be only a small part. Consequently, no healthy pickup of economic activity in the housing sector.

Second, as stated above, common and preferred equity holders will see the market value of their holdings drop 20-40%. Since a sizable portion of the preferred is held by the likes of KEY, MFA, NCT, and SOV [the four I identified as have the highest percent of their holding in the GSEs], these banks will also take a hit [dangerously close to fatal for SOV]. So, this will be no help for the financial sector.

Now tell me again, why this will signal the end of the bear market? What is going to be helped?

Yes, the market may react tomorrow with a giant up-move, but at some point in the near future, the bear is going to re-assert itself.

As for the preferential treatment being given the foreign banks; what good is their "safe" dollar-denominated debt instrument in a falling dollar market?

In my mind, the real danger is a dollar-caused crash of the Chinese market/economy.

JMHO]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87059-june-existing-home-sales-dip-while-supply-rises?source=feed#comment-215433 215433
but the positive bias is still there

also, for the five sectors cited, the decline is about -17.2% y/y

]]> Sun, 27 Jul 2008 08:07:16 -0400
but the positive bias is still there

also, for the five sectors cited, the decline is about -17.2% y/y

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87059-june-existing-home-sales-dip-while-supply-rises?source=feed#comment-215426 215426
"Existing condominium and co-op sales rose 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units in June from 580,000 in May, but are 19.7 percent below the 735,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price4 was $224,200 in June, which is 2.2 percent lower than June 2007.

for example: 1 - 580 / 735 => ~ -0.2109 or about -21.1% decline y/y

aside from the bias to the positive spin [i.e.; "...rose 1.7% [m/m omited], this makes you wonder about the accuracy of data that you can't verify

oh well, more koolaid please]]> Sun, 27 Jul 2008 07:50:45 -0400
"Existing condominium and co-op sales rose 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units in June from 580,000 in May, but are 19.7 percent below the 735,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price4 was $224,200 in June, which is 2.2 percent lower than June 2007.

for example: 1 - 580 / 735 => ~ -0.2109 or about -21.1% decline y/y

aside from the bias to the positive spin [i.e.; "...rose 1.7% [m/m omited], this makes you wonder about the accuracy of data that you can't verify

oh well, more koolaid please]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83057-mbia-s-gic-exposure-could-trigger-a-liquidity-crisis?source=feed#comment-195197 195197 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 11:47:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83059-endless-winter-for-new-home-sales?source=feed#comment-195185 195185 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 11:35:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83105-fed-credibility?source=feed#comment-195151 195151 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 10:46:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71435-late-payments-on-loans-the-highest-in-16-years-the-pooring-of-america-continues?source=feed#comment-164490 164490 Thu, 08 May 2008 19:33:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72050-back-to-1998-lessons-from-the-g7-then-and-now?source=feed#comment-149913 149913 Sun, 13 Apr 2008 15:12:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72055-homebuilder-bailout-an-updated-analysis?source=feed#comment-149910 149910
Small town, it is not middle America that elects, it is the campaign contributions from corporate america that enables the advertising that elects

Jim, the corporate contributions ultimately come from the consuming public, so it is not just the behavior at the polls that will have to change, but also the behavior in the market place

Bren, and who is going to define "qualifications" when more than half of the public qualified to vote intuitively knows that through their vote they can use the taxing power of the government to expropriate the wealth of the upper half to subsidize the lower half's lifestyle

frustrated, the bluff worked, didn't it

'nuff said, ]]> Sun, 13 Apr 2008 15:05:24 -0400
Small town, it is not middle America that elects, it is the campaign contributions from corporate america that enables the advertising that elects

Jim, the corporate contributions ultimately come from the consuming public, so it is not just the behavior at the polls that will have to change, but also the behavior in the market place

Bren, and who is going to define "qualifications" when more than half of the public qualified to vote intuitively knows that through their vote they can use the taxing power of the government to expropriate the wealth of the upper half to subsidize the lower half's lifestyle

frustrated, the bluff worked, didn't it

'nuff said, ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66794-time-to-get-serious-about-utilizing-short-etfs?source=feed#comment-133685 133685 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 12:25:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70389-get-out-of-commodities-barron-s?source=feed#comment-133673 133673
chistletoe - that's $5/bbl (for 2-gallon barrel), get with the program

User 167026 - DO NOT put all your nest eggs in one asset basket (and cash, or FDIC-insured MM, is a position)

]]> Sun, 30 Mar 2008 11:51:38 -0400
chistletoe - that's $5/bbl (for 2-gallon barrel), get with the program

User 167026 - DO NOT put all your nest eggs in one asset basket (and cash, or FDIC-insured MM, is a position)

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70391-the-current-market-according-to-the-dow-theory?source=feed#comment-133654 133654 but what would a TN hick know]]> Sun, 30 Mar 2008 11:12:49 -0400 but what would a TN hick know]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68617-the-bear-necessities-law-of-the-jungle-rules?source=feed#comment-127195 127195
or in other words, stick it to the pigs that brung us to this sorry dance]]> Sun, 16 Mar 2008 13:57:12 -0400
or in other words, stick it to the pigs that brung us to this sorry dance]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67567-residential-housing-finance-the-unwind-has-begun?source=feed#comment-123987 123987 Sat, 08 Mar 2008 13:44:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67571-wachovia-s-poorly-timed-deals-put-dividend-at-risk?source=feed#comment-123920 123920
say can i buy a call on the future value of the Gremlin? :)]]> Sat, 08 Mar 2008 10:12:32 -0500
say can i buy a call on the future value of the Gremlin? :)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67617-happy-with-joy-global-s-solid-report?source=feed#comment-123918 123918
your presentation concentrated on JOYG - have you already made your selection?

for me, I take a position in both [equal $ weight]

as for AYSI - higher risk, different industry]]> Sat, 08 Mar 2008 10:04:54 -0500
your presentation concentrated on JOYG - have you already made your selection?

for me, I take a position in both [equal $ weight]

as for AYSI - higher risk, different industry]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/64880-a-common-sense-look-at-mbia?source=feed#comment-116770 116770
exactly why I have both calls and puts; one is going to win out over the other; I'm betting the appreciation of the winner will cover the depreciation of the loser; just one person's approach

what I don't like is the 3-5 day ultimatum]]> Sun, 17 Feb 2008 12:43:55 -0500
exactly why I have both calls and puts; one is going to win out over the other; I'm betting the appreciation of the winner will cover the depreciation of the loser; just one person's approach

what I don't like is the 3-5 day ultimatum]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/42728-next-week-s-earnings-preview-the-roller-coaster-descends?source=feed#comment-92386 92386 and it is not just wall street, with crude at $78/bbl and milk at $6/gal it is out right fraud for the FOMC to be stating that there is no inflation
but then, the FOMC members are merely the creation of the wall street culture]]> Sun, 29 Jul 2007 11:44:48 -0400 and it is not just wall street, with crude at $78/bbl and milk at $6/gal it is out right fraud for the FOMC to be stating that there is no inflation
but then, the FOMC members are merely the creation of the wall street culture]]>