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slogic

slogic
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  • Goldcorp Is On The Prowl: Other Attractive Targets For A Failed Osisko Acquisition [View article]
    Hi Hebba,
    Is there any particular reason why you mentioned Seabridge (SA) only as a "neighbour" of PVG rather than an option on its own? My understanding is that SA is much more advanced than PVG in terms of project maturity, meaning they almost finished their environmental assessment (review completion is April 24th) and ready to begin construction? Wouldn't SA then be a much better deal than PVG according to you criterion #3?
    Thanks!
    Apr 18 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low-Priced Stocks To Avoid: Round 7 [View article]
    "Without a dividend to help offset the risk associated with this stock (risk that is easily apparent from looking at recent price drops), I recommend avoiding this stock."- brilliant analysis!!!
    So what about Amazon, Tesla and all the high-fliers? It's ok to buy them? Can't find those on your list...

    spammer!
    Nov 5 08:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is In The 'Too Hard Bucket' [View article]
    Dear author,

    Have a question for you with regards to your graphs. You might agree that gold as a global currency/commodity trades internationally and therefore it is not very meaningful to analyze the graphs in USD, just like some people might argue the same applies to S&P. For example, what looks like a drop in gold price since the last peak in October was entirely due to USD. If you back that out, the price of gold hasn't changed a bit. So what I did yesterday is re-draw the graph based on a basket of currencies (dividing GLD closing prices starting 01/01/2013 by UUP as a proxy for dollar index). Agreed that UUP might not be the best proxy due to price decay probably... but anyway, you get the idea.

    What I got was a rising triangle with perfectly flat resistance (last touched in October) and rising lows. Bullish formation?

    Would like to hear from you if you could re-run the numbers and comment if it changes your view in any way. Unfortunately, SA wouldn't allow uploading a graph in the comment.

    Thanks!
    Nov 5 06:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Seabridge Gold And Related Misconceptions [View article]
    Yes, of course. Again, liked your article very much - thanks!
    Oct 21 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Seabridge Gold And Related Misconceptions [View article]
    So... This message is for Rudi - if he decides to do some reading about his company. Dude... at this point, your strategy of growing reserves faster than share dilution isn't working anymore, obviously. If you do any more offerings this year, the hedgies who shorted at 16 two months ago will cover at $9 and harvest all the benefits of your high-grade core discoveries for the year. With 30% of the company held by insiders, guys, do you really want to roll over and spread your legs wide again??? Come on... you've got you high-grade core zone. The environmental application will be approved anytime within a couple of months, no questions asked. The first nations already supported the project and the Harper government and BC government will only be happy to give you a green light.

    This article made a really good point in showing that the current "take it for free" share price is an indication of market's assessment of a low probability of the project being developed. What's that, 11% to be exact?

    Rudi, please listen to this: at this point, a clear communications plan including time frames for project development and an indication of commitment to the plan would do TONS of good. After all, gold prices will probably explode within months if not weeks, and you need to be ready to capitalize. Come on. Don't be such a girl. Stick it to the hedgies like a man for once. Imagine, what moving that probability to 30% would do to the share price and the shorts.
    Oct 21 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On Seabridge Gold And Related Misconceptions [View article]
    Very good analysis, thank you.
    Oct 21 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Gold Price Action Misunderstood [View article]
    And I can simply find nothing in that article...
    Oct 19 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Side Of Goldman Sachs Is Right About Gold? [View article]
    Dave, thanks for the article.

    What are your thoughts about the substantial open interest in December futures (226,118)? Do you think its pure speculation, and the buyers will liquidate or roll their positions prior to expiration or could it be a real demand which would then force the sellers to buy gold at spot prices pushing them higher? In Oil contracts the manipulation is to keep the prices high and speculators roll almost all of their positions to the next month before expiration. In gold, the situation is reverse, so the manipulators would be the sellers. I'm really curios about the other side of the trade (buyers). If December open interest was an indication of a real demand, it could be a really interesting month for gold prices, or even a downtrend reversal.

    Secondly, what do you think about the Friday's sell-off? To me it looked a bit fishy. The obvious side to it was that someone was selling to create a downward momentum, and the price did not recover after the initial sell-off. What's interesting about it is that I have a feeling that whoever was selling intended for a much more impressive outcome. Zerohedge noted that 2 million ounces (56.7 tons) were sold in a single trade. Pardon me, but that's insane!!! I bet whoever did that was counting on a much bigger move than what they got. They were probably counting on a $100 slide to $1200-ish like in May-June period and all they've got were measly 1.5%. If that's true, then the Friday's sell-off is indicative of a complete failure of manipulators and approaching the second half of a double-bottom.

    Obviously, I can only speculate since I don't have access to the information. I was hoping you could shed some light on these observations.

    Thank you!
    Oct 13 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Market Movement: Can We Continue To Ignore And Soar? [View article]
    Phil,
    First of all, thanks for your analysis. I did learn a lot by reading your daily reviews. I even was your subscriber for a short little while.
    What makes me angry though, is that in any given week, you usually mix a bunch of arguments for being rational and, therefore, going short; followed by "the markets are fixed and we are happy with that as long as we know HOW they are fixed" and, therefore, going long. No matter what happens, the next week you always have some winners to point to and say "I told you so". I never saw you say, how exactly the markets are fixed (in general - we all know that, but what does it mean in this particular moment???), or why you think it's time to go short or long NOW and not two days later. Your ability to be correct on aveage remains a mistery to me.
    Just as the guy above with AMZN, I tried to short CMG last year following your advice and lost quite some money, until it finally worked this July for a nice profit.

    Would really appreciate if you were straigt about When and Why in your trade ideas, then I might consider re-subscribing to your service:))
    And I saved the most importan one for last: how do you decide when to GET OUT??? When 10% is enough or even -20% is better than a bigger loss, and when you should wait for a 10,000% return like with CMG a month ago?
    Aug 21 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Significantly Overvalued Stocks to Avoid [View article]
    There have already been articles on SA recommending to short GMCR. Right before it jumped 50%. Can insanity last forever? It was a good short then, it's a much better short now, and with puts I know my downside. So I bought a load of them...When a stock is a gamble, earnings announcement is a good excuse to reverse to the mean... It has happened to HOG, CMG, NFLX, BAC, etc. in April - and I'm willing to bet it will happen to GMCR on Tue.
    Apr 29 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Bull Market Running Out of Breath? [View article]
    Loved the style of the article. Nothing new, but every time I see someone who remains sane in this market, it's a pleasure.
    Apr 9 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting a Damper on the Big March Job Report Celebration [View article]
    The point of increasing auto sales is not their impact on internal US production, but to demonstrate increasing spending by US consumers on big ticket items. Improvement here clearly shows improving consumer confidence. Right in the face of terrible consumer confidence number that came out earlier in March. Personally, I tended to agree with the author's point, but this auto sales number just strikes me as very odd. I can't make sense out of it. Dean, any thoughts???
    Apr 3 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Households' Financial Burdens Continue to Ease [View article]
    Seriously, I'm not following what you're talking about. Households' financial burdens continued to ease, really? What about inflation running at 7% annualized (MIT), is that not a financial burden? Even if financial obligations have fallen as a percent of disposable income since 2007, did you care to look if it was an aggregate result of e.g. foreclosures, when the obligations were just written off? This wouldn't indicate any improvement of household finances, because people lost their equity, not just debt. What about the timeframe of this drop, did it happen recently, or in 2008/09? Poor analysis. A student at a business school could do better.
    Mar 22 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: Reasons to Be Bullish Today [View article]
    "Currently, we aren’t overly concerned with the short-term effects of this correction, given that we haven’t seen anything fundamentally alter the U.S. economic recovery."
    So... Are you overly concerned now? Someone said "one of those dips will be neither shallow nor short"...
    Mar 1 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing the Week Ahead: The Beat Goes On [View article]
    "And the result? The market beat. Stocks trade on the fundamentals of earnings expectations and interest rates. "
    ------------
    What have you been smoking, man??? On Fundamentals, really? I've looked at HOG valuation recently. The financial statements are cooked so much they stink, but let's make a rosy assumption they're correct. The unit sales have been falling for the last three years, an average customer is in late 40s and gest older by half year every year. But let's make a rosy assumption and say that from now on, the company will be able to grow its sales by (conservative) 3% annually and (optimistic) 8% annually, forever. Let's make a further rosy assumption, and say that there will be no more "one-time" charges, which actually happen every quarter lately. Now let's go nuts, and assume that with all the money printing, we have a 3.67% 10-year risk-free rate (week ago), and 5% market risk premium.

    Do you know what kind of company value we will get based on "fundamentals"? $20 dollars per share, you smart man, under our 8 % growth optimistic scenario. If you price in 3% growth and add another 1% to risk-free and market risk premium, you get $10 dollars per share fair price. The stock is currently trading at $42-43. You call this "based on fundamentals"? Why don't you retire or go back to school, whatever you can afford with this coming inflation...
    Feb 21 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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