Checking the usual after hours sources about CROX, the stock traded 4,434 shares at 4:31 at $16.34 (close value), then 3,363 shares at 4:34 for $16.34 (close value), then 100 shares at 5:09 for $15.77 . The trade that is reported represents 1-2% of the after hour trades! Also was this a manufactured trade driven by a short seller willing to take the loss, or somebody that placed a dumb market order after hours into a dead market? Either way, the people writing this summary should have the responsibility to at least think of the implications and manipulations of extremely low volume after hours trading.
United Continental Holdings (UAL) is finally enjoying some smooth flying after an "awful" 2012, CEO Jeff Smisek has said. Last year, the carrier lost $723M and suffered a wave of canceled and delayed flights, partly as an after-effect of the 2010 merger between United Airlines and Continental. "For far too long, we've operated this company as an airline. Airlines don't make money," Smisek added. [View news story]
Nice of him to remind us that airlines don't make money! The stock is up and the airfares and number of people flying are saving UAL!
The airline sector saw a drop in unit revenue during May even with a decent load factor increase of 70 bps to 84.4% during the month. Unit revenue were down for all major carriers - except Delta Air Line (DAL) with a 0.5% gain and JetBlue (JBLU) with a 1% increase. May unit revenue growth scorecard: US Airways (LCC) -1%; United Continental (UAL) 0% to -1%; Allegiant (ALGT) -8.2% to -8.6%; Alaska Airlines (ALK) -3.3%; American Airlines (AAMRQ.PK) -1.8%; Southwest Airlines (LUV) -2%. [View news story]
Rich, With a refurbished runway, Lax has some growth potential, but EWR is totally out of slots. JetBlue is starting to put a ring of airports, around NYC that have slots, like Westchester, since most of its operations don't depend on hubs. The UA/Lufthansa relationship has some add, but many transatlantic routes to Germany are duplicates of routes already run by United. The big thing for the relationship is the connections beyond the Lufthansa hub cities. Agreed on Cleveland, as United cuts its next few percent of flights, it is not likely to retain any major hub operations in CLE, just like Delta pulled Memphis. 50 seat planes are dieing off as mid-sized planes increase (CRJ, E-190) Industry rumors is that Virgin America is still small, 53 planes, and rumored to be bleeding cash. With not enough destinations to pull frequent flyers into the VA plan vs. United at SFO, many in the industry see a questionable future, or an acquisition by a stronger carrier. VA has already restructured it aircraft deliveries to stop the bleeding. Denver is home to three hub airlines. I don't know of any airport that has ever sustained three for the long term. US Airways just quit LGA. Correction to your facts is that UA is the number one at DEN with 40%, Southwest, 25% and Frontier 22%. As for the impact of AA merger, we wont know until they announce consolidations. As for your forecast, again speculative because DAL is later in its NWA merger and has less to gain from consolidation than UA that is still early in consolidation. The real bogey I see is when the airlines are done consolidating and move into each others turf as a necessity of expansion. Here in Houston, AA, SWA and DAL are adding non-stop NYC flights on top of UA and JBLU for a total of 5 competitors. Fares have dropped and I am waiting to see what the airlines do about competing in a market with narrowed margins and no real dominant carrier. Don't forget about Spirit, they are the bad boy with real margins way ahead of the industry that is just moving right over the big guys and stealing the extreme low cost market. With their low cost model, they have giant growth plans that are likely to threaten all the low cost carriers, as well as the big guys. Their route map is crazy, but works, so nobody is just going to take away business from them.
US Airways-American Will Give United And Delta Tough Competition [View article]
Good analysis. The only things I would challenge is the old perception that all flyers are the same, and all hubs are the same. Business passengers are not like leisure which are not like ultra low cost travelers. Some of the low cost flyers just don't travel enough to earn anything anyway. About the hubs, dehubbing has been going on for a long time with airlines like Southwest and JetBlue that are doing more point to points and bypassing hubbing as a percent of their mix. Smaller cities will always be connectors through somewhere, but it is hard to get loyal with an airline while constantly making connections.
The airline sector saw a drop in unit revenue during May even with a decent load factor increase of 70 bps to 84.4% during the month. Unit revenue were down for all major carriers - except Delta Air Line (DAL) with a 0.5% gain and JetBlue (JBLU) with a 1% increase. May unit revenue growth scorecard: US Airways (LCC) -1%; United Continental (UAL) 0% to -1%; Allegiant (ALGT) -8.2% to -8.6%; Alaska Airlines (ALK) -3.3%; American Airlines (AAMRQ.PK) -1.8%; Southwest Airlines (LUV) -2%. [View news story]
United hubs at LAX, SFO, ORD, EWR, IAH, DEN, CLE mostly top 5 cities are their hubs Delta hubs at ATL, CVG, DTW, SLC, MSP, JFK, LGA, most are not top 5 cities, where there is more competition.
Penn West Cuts Its Dividend, But The Market Is Focused On Big Insider Buying [View article]
I am long PennWest because of asset values. The company has great assets, but the old management just rode a company that was great into the ground. I hope these guys know how to tap the assets they have.
Heard during Delta Air Lines (DAL +3%) presentation at a Deutsche Bank conference: 1) The company raised the lower end of its Q2 operating margin forecast to 10%-11% from a prior level of 9%-10%. 2) Q2 guidance also includes estimates that free cash flow will be around $850M and system capacity will gain 0%-1%. 3) The Trainer refinery is expected to meet 25% of Delta's domestic jet fuel consumption needs by early 2014. (webcast) [View news story]
Delta has a solid offering for the legacy carrier industry. Short to intermediate term looks good in spite of entering businesses it knows nothing about. Longer term the low cost carriers continue to grow at about 10 percent per year off a small base, reminiscent of when Southwest was 4 percent player, nobody cared. Long term, those market points add up. All the smaller airlines put together still don't add up to one legacy carrier (counting the American/US Airways merger), but together, they have several hundred aircraft on order.
I buy lottery tickets too. Without a clear knowledge of the drivers for the next 20 years, any rate you would ascribe to growth, (or shrinkage) is a conjecture, necessary to fill an analysis. I am long in CROX. but my decisions have to be made on hard data. I have been an analyst my whole life and did Long Term projections based on judgmental numbers, that, quite frankly, were driven by a series of disclosed assumptions, only to deviate significantly when actuals were realized. As a result, I am quite skeptical of numbers past the three year window.
My point is that future variability of revenues and expenses is impacted by so many factors (markets, economy, competition, patents, management, etc.) that the predictive value of the assignment of any value is sufficiently questionable.
Discussing Crocs and style at the same time? LOL I think they will always be a brand maligned for style. There are only so many ways you can design a plastic shoe. Cost is another issue. They will always be a reasonably priced brand with reasonable style, but unlikely ever a style leader.
Penn West (PWE -0.3%) is increasing its chance for recovery by appointing a new CEO to cut costs and weigh asset sales as investors see the company's operations improving, and the cost-cutting focus raises the likelihood the assets actually will be valued at market value instead of at a big discount, analysts say. At least four analysts raised their target prices for PWE yesterday. [View news story]
Penn West Cuts Dividend And Hires A New CEO [View article]
A real 5.35% dividend rate trumps an artificially propped up rate over 10%. Since this company has assets that far exceed the stock capitalization, the current market price for the stock should not be threatened much. A new CEO will want all the S..t to hit the fan, and will be writing off all marginal decisions from the predecessors. Underneath the junk is a great company that needs some focus.
Republic Airways: Frontier Dilemma And Investment Outlook [View article]
The courts erred when they gave Frontier to RJET instead of Southwest. Southwest, JetBlue, Alaska and Spirit could easily gobble this one up today, and one should. With 55 airbus planes and orders for 80, this is very manageable. Who has the guts to do it?
After-hours top gainers, as of 5:15 p.m.: CO +6%. ADBE +4%. OPK +3%. MY +3%. GEVO +2%.
After-hours top losers: TTEK -12%. POOL -7%. MGI -5%. AAWW -4%. CROX -3%. [View news story]
United Continental Holdings (UAL) is finally enjoying some smooth flying after an "awful" 2012, CEO Jeff Smisek has said. Last year, the carrier lost $723M and suffered a wave of canceled and delayed flights, partly as an after-effect of the 2010 merger between United Airlines and Continental. "For far too long, we've operated this company as an airline. Airlines don't make money," Smisek added. [View news story]
The airline sector saw a drop in unit revenue during May even with a decent load factor increase of 70 bps to 84.4% during the month. Unit revenue were down for all major carriers - except Delta Air Line (DAL) with a 0.5% gain and JetBlue (JBLU) with a 1% increase. May unit revenue growth scorecard: US Airways (LCC) -1%; United Continental (UAL) 0% to -1%; Allegiant (ALGT) -8.2% to -8.6%; Alaska Airlines (ALK) -3.3%; American Airlines (AAMRQ.PK) -1.8%; Southwest Airlines (LUV) -2%. [View news story]
US Airways-American Will Give United And Delta Tough Competition [View article]
The airline sector saw a drop in unit revenue during May even with a decent load factor increase of 70 bps to 84.4% during the month. Unit revenue were down for all major carriers - except Delta Air Line (DAL) with a 0.5% gain and JetBlue (JBLU) with a 1% increase. May unit revenue growth scorecard: US Airways (LCC) -1%; United Continental (UAL) 0% to -1%; Allegiant (ALGT) -8.2% to -8.6%; Alaska Airlines (ALK) -3.3%; American Airlines (AAMRQ.PK) -1.8%; Southwest Airlines (LUV) -2%. [View news story]
Delta hubs at ATL, CVG, DTW, SLC, MSP, JFK, LGA, most are not top 5 cities, where there is more competition.
Penn West Cuts Its Dividend, But The Market Is Focused On Big Insider Buying [View article]
Heard during Delta Air Lines (DAL +3%) presentation at a Deutsche Bank conference: 1) The company raised the lower end of its Q2 operating margin forecast to 10%-11% from a prior level of 9%-10%. 2) Q2 guidance also includes estimates that free cash flow will be around $850M and system capacity will gain 0%-1%. 3) The Trainer refinery is expected to meet 25% of Delta's domestic jet fuel consumption needs by early 2014. (webcast) [View news story]
Is Crocs Headed For A Fall? [View article]
Is Crocs Headed For A Fall? [View article]
Is Crocs Headed For A Fall? [View article]
Is Crocs Headed For A Fall? [View article]
Is Crocs Headed For A Fall? [View article]
Penn West (PWE -0.3%) is increasing its chance for recovery by appointing a new CEO to cut costs and weigh asset sales as investors see the company's operations improving, and the cost-cutting focus raises the likelihood the assets actually will be valued at market value instead of at a big discount, analysts say. At least four analysts raised their target prices for PWE yesterday. [View news story]
Penn West Cuts Dividend And Hires A New CEO [View article]
Republic Airways: Frontier Dilemma And Investment Outlook [View article]