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  • Freeport-McMoRan Repairing Balance Sheet And Still Undervalued  [View article]
    I have followed copper since the '80s. It is interesting that 'Indonesian political risk' does not get much airtime on SA. I own the stock, will continue to own the stock and believe in copper beyond this troubled period but do wonder if FCX's aging board has lost the thread with this generation of corrupt Indonesian leaders. Indonesian leaders are always corrupt but the fact that FCX had to break cover and go public with a tape speaks volumes about changed relationships. This worries me far more than predictable doom-laden forecasts for the death of copper. Analysts are hopeless at spotting turning points and 'copper is dead' comes out every time we hit the rocks.
    Dec 13, 2015. 01:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper: Is There Less Supply? Or More Demand?  [View article]
    Did we not go through this phase in the 60s/70s where builders substituted Al for Cu in wiring which led to a rash of fires caused by corroded contacts? Is it suddenly going to work now because 50 years has slipped by? Is Al any less prone to these issues now than then? Likely not........
    Oct 8, 2015. 07:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Prices About To Strike A Death Blow To This American Industry  [View article]
    Read this. He says it is the sunspot cycle. Seriously.
    Aug 9, 2015. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Prices About To Strike A Death Blow To This American Industry  [View article]
    The basis for this forecast is sunspot cycles:
    Aug 8, 2015. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Prices About To Strike A Death Blow To This American Industry  [View article]
    It's all about the sunspots:
    Aug 8, 2015. 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan And The Cash Costs Of Copper  [View article]
    Actually the ICSG forecasts, from the website, are for production and not capacity so it is apples-to-apples. The forecasts are terribly inaccurate and have continually overstated supply.
    Aug 5, 2015. 08:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan And The Cash Costs Of Copper  [View article]
    I had trouble with the concept of global copper supply increasing by 26.3% through 2018 so I did a little checking on ICSG's forecasting prowess. ICSG forecasts are generally, as in 100%, wrong.

    In April 2010 ICSG forecast a 2011 global surplus of 243kt. Not exactly looking far into the future, right? By the last mention of 2011 in October 2012 that surplus was a deficit of 214kt. For 2012 the forecast deficit of 279kt became a deficit of 421kt. For 2013 a forecast surplus of 360kt became a deficit of 272kt. I like 2014 best, although it is only for five periods so far and not the full six i.e. there is one more report to come. An initial 2014 forecast surplus of 681kt became a deficit of 423kt, a cool swing of 1.1MT! How can they get it so totally wrong and yet still be in business? Oh yes, it is government funded. So far, over three reports, the 2015 forecasts are down from a surplus of 595kt to 364kt.

    So, based on this pathetic performance using facts directly from the ICSG website, how credible is a mind-boggling surplus of 26.3% over three years? Not very!
    Aug 5, 2015. 03:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Buy The Dip To Profit From Copper  [View article]
    Oil is driving the bus.
    Aug 4, 2015. 03:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Canadian Real Estate Crash?  [View article]
    Not sure what chart you are looking at but your link shows a yield curve that is fairly flat for the first three years and then positive from 3 years to 30 years. It is not inverted at any point.
    Aug 2, 2015. 06:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan - Hope Not Lost  [View article]
    Sorry nothing in my SA inbox to review. Anyway, why send me anything - just put it up on SA for everyone to digest! They are a discerning crowd at times that can weed odd the oddball views from reality, particularly views that never have observed facts to support them.

    Neither of the data sources, WM and SNL-MEG, I mention is a mining consultant that 'earn their crust from mining'. They are widely used by producers, banks, buy-side and sell-side analysts because of good quality third-party data collected across the industry. They sell data not mining consulting services. Take your pick but I will go with the facts over unsupported opinion.

    b-t-w isn't the recent disclosure that China actually has far less gold than gold conspiracy theorists thought one major reason why gold took a dive lately!

    Not much to be gained form pointless arguments - this isn't value-added discussion. Come to the table with facts or don't come at all!
    Jul 30, 2015. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Oil Crash Could Be A Dividend Growth Investor's Best Friend Of The Decade  [View article]
    I am interested to see the source of the $25/bl cost? Is that straight production cost on a sustained basis i.e. excluding finding costs? Aren't global finding costs something like $30/bl? If so how can $25 costs be sustained after the well has been exploited and then refracked a few times?
    Jul 30, 2015. 08:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan - Hope Not Lost  [View article]
    Really? In an industry producing, say, 30 bln pounds of copper a year you have to spend a lot of billions just to sustain production. If you don't like SNL/MEG data then take it up with Wood Mackenzie because their data ties in pretty well. At the margin there really is no massive surplus, plenty of mines will be losing money if the price goes to $2 because by-product credits have been reduced with gold at these levels. So show us your data and we will be believers but so far there is a lot of opinion and nary a quantifiable fact.
    Jul 29, 2015. 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan - Hope Not Lost  [View article]
    Well, they have been around for more than 30 years and are well-respected within the industry so that gives them credibility. Anyway, why not tell us what you think the long-term inflation adjusted price of copper is.
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan - Hope Not Lost  [View article]
    Yawn, been looking these since '87 - not long after Time published its 'Death of Mining' cover. Anyway don't take it up with me - take it up with these guys, they actually know what they are talking about. If you are in the trade then you will know that they have a long, long track record and database. I refer you particularly to the 9th decile discussion and its influence on copper pricing.
    Jul 29, 2015. 08:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan - Hope Not Lost  [View article]
    Sigh.... what is much more relevant is today's nominal price versus today's nominal cumulative production cost curve. People who bother to look at it will see that at $2/lb a material portion of global copper production loses money on a cash basis and, historically, when that happens the market vigorously re-balances and prices recover. Throw in rare but predictable events like strikes, earthquakes and insurrection and copper is much better positioned than it looks.... unless you believe that a global depression is imminent in which case go to 100% cash.
    Jul 29, 2015. 08:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment