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  • Some Thoughts on Leveraged ETFs [View article]
    I don't see a rebuttal of the main point here: That leveraged ETF's are being touted as perfectly for and track well, long-term. Yet, the user is supposed to figure out on their own that the claims are false.
    Good example of Wall St. today. Be ridiculed by experts for not asking questions on your own to discover the falsehoods in a prospectus, then, don't ask questions when it's time to pony up a couple of $trillions for their mistakes.
    Aug 10, 2009. 11:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rating Agencies Won't Be Able to Shut CalPers Up Easily [View article]
    CALPERS already went to greater risk last August in an unfortunate case of bad timing. I think that's the origin of this lawsuit, information would be appreciated. They are bent on taking more risk still and have a chance here of blaming someone else for their negligence and bad judgement.
    Fine with me. I hope this lawsuit helps kick in the door and opens more, to get knowlege to the public and appropriate changes made.
    Aug 10, 2009. 11:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commercial Real Estate Suffering from Cash Flow Problems? [View article]
    Lack of cash flow is central to the financial crisis. Loans were carelessly made everywhere on the greater fool theory. In home mortgages, the pushers on the phone were well-versed in telling people that their situation would improve in a few years before the mortgages reset and furthermore, their improved status would make financing easy. In CRE, the real geniuses always seemed to make bigger bets every year which paid off for a long time. It was musical chairs, the music stopped.
    Greenspan would go on about capital gluts in this new post-reality miracle economy and the lack of incomes for ever-more Americans was not a factor. But it's caught up in home mortgages and CRE cannot be immune.
    Wall St. created a miracle of leverage on unsound loans. The real geniuses are on Wall St. who have enablers in Washington always willing to wave the magic pretend dollar wand when they make a boo boo.
    Aug 10, 2009. 07:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future of Flashed Options [View article]
    Like Judge Rakoff's refusal to sign off on a typically pathetic love-tap punishment between the SEC and BAC due to.......The Public Interest(!), investigation here may unravel enough to start a ball rolling. Some in crucial positions must want to do their jobs and care enough about the country and the people.
    It's a far cry from Watergate when there were whistleblowers and investigative journalists abounding, but the crisis fails anyone's honest smell test by now. Now we have the internet and the blogosphere. Where adults can exchange information and judge it for themselves. Thanks again for the update, Tyler.
    Aug 9, 2009. 10:28 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is the Fed Buying Treasuries? [View article]
    Wasn't it only in February that QE was announced? Now it's the old "plant the buyer in the auction" gimmick.
    Yeah, we're doing great.
    Aug 9, 2009. 08:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury Market Rigging: John Jansen vs. Tyler Durden [View article]
    The inhabitants of our financial system have failed us miserably and in bad faith. This draws in commentary from concerned citizens in all walks. They don't all have the i's dotted and t's crossed. They may commit typos and use bad grammar.
    The financial wizards, we have found, have too often acted in error compounded by bad faith. They are getting $trillions from us amateurs. That's more important to me than if Tyler is occasionally found not 100% accurate in all details.
    Aug 9, 2009. 08:44 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Double Dip Recession in Sight, Expecting Further Fall of Risk Premia [View article]
    $trillions of ill-targeted government bailouts globally are the life support of stabilization right now. You do mention that "there is a chance that the natural pulse has been stopped." Do we believe market signals so artificially induced?
    Still, you show well that previous valid signals for recession worked well this time again and give criteria that would be likely required to signal another downturn: Rate inversion and an employment rate rising from lower levels, the "adaptation" level.
    Seems to many we are more comparable to the 30's and far worse off in debt and most indicators of financial health. With "black swans" more possible in this difficult world climate, I'm not sure the present environment is more than tradably benign.
    Aug 9, 2009. 08:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rise of the Part-Timer, Fall of the Labor Force [View article]
    TradingHelp makes an interesting point that the British have the same characteristics of an increase of one or more part-time jobs over full-time. Since they have nationalized healthcare, that shoots down the reason to rush into Hillarycare that employers now use part-timers to avoid health benefits primarily.
    The article debunks the latest employment statistics as representing strength. A smaller pool and lower hours do not indicate strength. At this rate, with unemployment insurance exhausted, this "strengh" would lead to a nearly 100% government workforce, and both remaining private-sector workers would be part-time.
    Aug 9, 2009. 08:12 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greg Mankiw on Cap-and-Trade (NYT) [View article]
    The idea anyway is to add another tax. Even if something else were reduced and this tax were to be "dedicated" to saving Earth, the other taxes would soon be raised and this one would go to the general fund. That's the principal idea.
    Aug 9, 2009. 08:01 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs in July - Getting Worse More Slowly [View article]
    This is the BLS that imputed 12,000 new financial sector jobs last October. And about the same for the real estate sector a year earlier.
    Confidence. Feel it yet? Don't worry about your finances or job; they're taking care of Wall St. and feeding you good sound bites. That should do it.
    Aug 7, 2009. 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Confidence Games and Ponzi Schemes: No Way to Run the World's Largest Economy [View article]
    This corrupt system has increasingly distributed rewards irrationally. It is rule-based and, from the Fed's funny money and beyond, has increasingly hidden real market signals.
    It is not new that your status in the hierarchy of rules usually governs your rewards more than a rational measure of one's contribution. Being a lawyer or accountant or getting a good government job depends on more rules to interpret or to administer which sap real production when in excess. They have long been in excess.
    The financial system is so bad it needs no elaboration.
    The Chinese, unborn non-voters and everyone who doesn't really count or even vote is being tapped and swindled. Rational ideas and solutions, long marginalized, are not treated seriously. That is the nature of our decadence and corruption today.
    Aug 7, 2009. 10:26 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are Natural Gas Producers Expanding Production So Aggressively? [View article]
    Thanks, happycajun, for some further explanations.
    Still, the board of Chesapeake is all to similar to other troughs-of-directors in US corporations. They are connected, interlocking, an ingrown obscenely overpaid group and have no special insight or expertise in the business. Look at GM.
    The system rewards the haves at all costs. Even I see the dice are loaded towards their short-term bonuses regardless of long-term risks assumed and resultant debacles.
    They have circled the wagons. They control the public "green shoots" discourse via MSM and sold-out politicians. The $trillions of bailouts are not to reward the unique successes of the "1 in a million talents that run the US public troughs... er, public corporations." Except for their lobbying power and crony status.
    Aug 7, 2009. 09:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why a Higher Stock Market Won't Help Consumers [View article]
    With the now-extreme levels of QE in bond auctions, maybe the employment report, along with Abby Cohen's pom-poms, are signs of a late-inning pump and dump in equities.
    If rising equities provide cover for banks to actually lend, perhaps the orchestrators believe the consumer debt model can rise from the ashes. As your home ATM examples show, don't hold our breath.
    FNM, like the rest of the ponzi failures is being propped by skyrocketing QE to make up their business losses on volume.
    Aug 7, 2009. 09:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Judge Rejects Bank of America / SEC Settlement [View article]
    I nominate Judge Rakoff to the Supreme Court.
    There are so few in a position of power to influence events towards truth. Decades of rising concentration of wealth have not raised up many who ever serve principle over ill-gotten easy money. Hence, this judge holding up a malodorous, typical traffic fine settlement for at least tens of $billions of taxpayer losses to insist on the truth is, I believe, unprecedented in this historic debacle.
    "Public interest" doctrine? First I've heard of it. One of these scandals deserves to take down much of Washington and Wall St. Thanks for actually serving the public interest, Judge Rakoff.
    Aug 7, 2009. 09:02 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.K. Recovery Just a Mirage [View article]
    Little need be changed to plug this analysis into the American picture.
    Great point, simply put, "GDP growth, a poor measure that accentuates the positive."
    It troubles me that amongst the many reasons, great and small, that have landed us where we are is that dishonesty has increased with the rise of "professionals." Why are government statistics and financial methods ever-phonier seemingly without a word from accountants? Like teachers who allow a decrepit, destructive and wasteful unionized system to dumb our kids ever-downward at the highest cost in the world, like professors who bend findings to the whims of their benefactors, accountants are happy to have metastasizing government that needs their inputs to navigate ever-proliferating edicts and rules. Honesty not required.
    I needn't mention lawyers.
    Seems you have the same "green shoots" press and public. We in the US are not the only ones with an embarrassing and dangerously deluded public discussion.
    Aug 7, 2009. 08:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment