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  • Bakken Update: Triangle Petroleum May Have 43% Upside In 2014 [View article]
    Thanks for the wealth of information and updates.

    With the restatement of earnings to include the value of Caliber warrants how do you anticipate that will impact the short term pps??

    Any idea when is the gas processing facility expected to be fully functional?

    Any news on adjoining operators to their Montana land?
    Apr 15 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Recent Kodiak Completions Model 1000+ MBoe [View article]
    Congrats on accepting the new position. Hopefully that doesn't make all your research proprietary and the articles stop coming.

    Do you see KOG or any others going back to old wells (circa 2010) and doing recompletions with new techniques to determine the costs and the ROI?

    If not, do you see this on the horizon as they come back in and add more wells to the already held dsu? Can they take wells that were modeling at 500 and turn them into 1000MBoe wells for just the cost of completion?
    Apr 4 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonanza Creek: The Best Way To Play The Niobrara; Valuation Implies 40% Upside [View article]
    those resignations could have had a lot to do with the closing of the California office and the maturation of the leadership team. the fundamentals just do not justify this drop.
    Apr 2 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2014 Oil And Gas Stock Pick Is Up 21% Since The First Of The Year [View article]

    Any insight into why so many exec's are leaving all at once??
    Mar 24 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Kodiak A Good Investment? [View article]
    cash flow positive by third quarter. It will get more attention then. reserves estimates are extremely conservative as they work to prove up the land. they know what their reserves can be and that will be the number used if/when they sell.
    Mar 6 04:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bakken Update's 2014 Stock Picks: Small Operator's Well Design Outperforms In North Dakota [View article]
    WLL with some interesting color on various well completion techniques they are testing including changing the viscosity as they work their way down the leg of the well with the furthest fracs having more viscous fluids. Really makes it obvious just how early in the learning curve we really are.
    Feb 27 11:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bakken Update's 2014 Stock Picks: Small Operator's Well Design Outperforms In North Dakota [View article]
    found this again if it helps. OAS to do 15 - 20 slickwater in 2014

    Reid added that on the west side of Oasis' acreage in the Bakken/Three Forks, early production results from slickwater hydraulic fracturing (fracking) operations performed in the top quartile of wells in certain areas.

    "Remember that there is an offset to this well performance and well cost as slickwater completions cost $1.5 million to $2 million more than our typical wells," Reid said. "Given the results, we will perform 15 to 20 more slickwater fracks in 2014.

    "There is still a lot of work to understand the EUR [estimated ultimate recovery] impacts associated with the fracs, but we are cautiously optimistic that it will result in an increase to well economics. In addition to slickwater, we continue to test a number of other variants with respect to our stimulation techniques."
    Feb 25 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bakken Update: U.S. Oil Production Is The Reason For The Tank Railcar Renaissance [View article]
    good read. added ARII after reading your first article. Thanks

    There is an interesting read in the WSJ today on bakken crude and just how light it really is. It indicated that the equipment used to strip and process gasses could not keep up with the flow volumes on some wells. My question is who controls that market (gas stripping/processing hardware) in the bakken??

    The quote in the article that struck me was that most bakken crude smelled like gasoline and you could put it in your gas tank and run your truck on it. That is a strong image.

    I suspect that either they will have to start stripping better (and lose those gallons) or will have to pay up for better tankers. my money is on the latter but it might be worth a bet on both just incase.
    Feb 24 04:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bakken Update's 2014 Stock Picks: Small Operator's Well Design Outperforms In North Dakota [View article]

    Can you give any updates on the OAS slickwater program? or on any tht KOG may have done?

    I know that OAS said they were happy with the rate of return on the slickwater fracs they have did in 2013 but they were still hedging the information as being short term and had refused to put any EUR ratings on those wells last I read.

    imho, slickwater is going to prove out to be the best current method to increase long term eur's and with more and more pipelines in place, the cost of slickwater fracs is going to continue to drop making them even more attractive

    Amazing how much science is still left to be done. Who know what % of oil will be able to be recovered 10 years from now. People seem to forget that 90% + of the oil is still left in place waiting on a new completion technique or EOR method to come get it. There seems to be a lot of long term value here for patient money.
    Feb 17 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Attractive $8 A Share Energy Plays [View article]
    TPLM cash flow from well services and pipeline business is going to be solid revenue generator straight to the bottom line regardless of price of oil for years to come, or at least until they spin it off into an MLP. Proving up their Montana property will be a major catalyst when they decide to go for it. Others drilling in the area are doing the heavy lifting for them and with their relationships with other drillers through Rockpile I am sure they are getting some good feedback. Under $8 was a gift for those that weren't in it already.
    Jan 28 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Union Pacific The Best Public Rail Company To Own For 2014 And Beyond? [View article]
    Don't look now but the EU consortium building the canal is on the verge of shutting down construction as Panama is apparently refusing to pay for any change orders. If Panama were to assume construction of the remainder of the canal who knows how that will impact final completion timelines
    Jan 22 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy Prefers Cushion In Cushing [View article]
    I am an engineer not a financial analyst so I am not the one to answer that question. It would seem that there would have to be a determination as to what WNR assets would be folded into the MLP, what the current value of those assets are on the WNR books, what premium WNR would want from NTI for those assets and what the revenue generation of those assets are. More time and effort than I have to invest but from what little I have looked at the change in the value of those assets moving them from WNR balance sheet to the MLP would seem to more than justify a 20% premium to WNR for those assets since the MLP seems to get a much larger multiplier for similar assets than a public company does due to the favorable tax status of the MLP. Incorporating multiple refineries into the MLP also reduces the one pony risk associated with NTI where a single bad accident could eliminate all revenue generation for a period of time. More than my little brain can wrap up and put a bow on but imho there is a lot more to determining NTI's future value than just the spread in the source crude.
    Jan 22 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy Prefers Cushion In Cushing [View article]
    Although this is a fairly good article, you failed to mention a major factor that will have a substantial impact on the long term value of NTI.

    With Western Refinery taking control of the MLP it offers them the possibility of bringing many of their assets into the MLP which operation. helps to reduce the risk associated with a single refienry

    I can see a scenario with WNR passing many of their refinery assets into the MLP and spinning off the retail aspect of NTI. That would allow them to utilize NTI access to the low price crude sources to feed their downstream refineries while taking advantage of the tax structure of the MLP. imho this will impact the value of NTI MLP as much or more than the crack spread.

    These decisions by WNR as to how to manage the MLP will impact the long term value of NTI as much or more than the crack spread. A in-depth folow-up on that issue would be of interest to those long in NTI.
    Jan 19 05:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intermodal And Merchandise Businesses Will Have A Positive Impact On CSX's Earnings [View article]
    can you please expand on what is the additional intermodal capacity being created by current capex allowing for double stack cars and when will it come on-line?

    Jan 15 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Union Pacific The Best Public Rail Company To Own For 2014 And Beyond? [View article]
    Wow. Very thorough and comprehensive article. Will have to read it again, and again, to digest the volume of info provided

    Questions. How do you think the canal expansion will impact transshipment and what ports are setting themselves up to be able to take advantage of that?

    What impact will the CSX capital expenditures to increase their double stack capacity have on them?

    Do you ever see CSX buying out the access to Port of Miami?

    Do you see oil by rail increasing substantially and are there rail infrastructure limitations in moving more oil east-west by rail?

    With cheaper energy costs forecasts for Mexican industrial sector as more nat gas flows south from Texas what impact do you think that will that have on KSU?

    Who is best positioned to transition from diesel to nat gas powered locomotives?

    long KSU and CSX
    Jan 14 12:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment