Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Google: The Pie In The Sky  [View article]
    Bram, you mention AMZN but fail to mention MSFT in your article. The way I see the cloud wars playing out is that AMZN, MSFT and the GOOG end up owning the market. Other players like HPQ and ORCL while making cloud based products have scaled back their ambitions of being complete cloud providers. MSFT' strong recent results were helped by growth at Azure and their other cloud related products. They are growing their cloud business's faster than AMZN is. Of course, this has something to do with law of large numbers. Both player's cloud offerings are very profitable. If the cloud world seems to be heading to three dominant players, which is my best guess, then pricing might hold up better than you expect. AMZN has waged the zero margin game on the retail side and may not want to go there with AWS. Going to war with GOOG and MSFT may be a bit more challenging than taking on Barnes & Noble, WMT, et al. And AMZN needs eventually to make money somewhere.

    As for valuation, it was mentioned above that GOOG was trading on a 30X P/E and MSFT on 37X. That's not what I'm seeing GOOG is low 20X ' s and MSFT high teens (calendarizing MSFT for 2016). I think you are buying very good cloud growth at a very reasonable valuation with GOOG and MSFT. Use current weakness to buy into the cloud growth story.
    Feb 6, 2016. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Roundtable gets together  [View news story]
    j.flaherty- Faber's picks (his longs) from last year were actually down double digits. Wonder if that is why he did not make an appearance on the panel. He has no verifiable track record, never has. Talks a good game but that's about it. Most of the picks by the rest of last year's panel were actually pretty good.
    Jan 18, 2016. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Would Benjamin Graham Buy Kinder Morgan?  [View article]
    Unlike his disciple Warren, Graham had a tendency to buy cigar butts. KMI is a cigar butt. He might be tempted, but in the end I think the debt would keep him away. There are plenty of opportunities for investors. Time to move on from KMI.
    Jan 4, 2016. 05:52 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Will Pre-Holiday Cheer Give Stocks A Needed Boost?  [View article]
    EPD also owns and operates export terminals.
    Dec 24, 2015. 11:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dawning Of Debt Metric Consequences For Master Limited Partnerships  [View article]
    This a nice article. Thank you Factoids. So much of the "analysis" on KMI, and the MLP space in general, has consisted of cut and paste pictures of pipeline maps accompanied by statements that if you doubt Richard Kinder you are an idiot, that I had come to the conclusion that meaningful analysis on the sector could not be found on SA. Your piece and a couple of others (I include the work of Ron Hiram here) prove otherwise.
    Dec 22, 2015. 01:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oracle higher after mixed FQ2; software/cloud revenue at high end of guidance  [View news story]
    Could be wrong but the cloud growth seems relatively anemic when compared to what is being seen elsewhere (AMZN and MSFT).
    Dec 16, 2015. 05:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cutting The Dividend Now Will Increase Kinder Morgan's Value  [View article]
    Could you please give me examples of companies were large insider shareholders have forgone the dividend while the public shareholders continued to receive them.

    As for KMI cutting their dividend they really had no other option. They couldn't sell more shares into the market and they couldn't issue new debt.
    Dec 9, 2015. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cutting The Dividend Now Will Increase Kinder Morgan's Value  [View article]
    kontum, I think the MLP community, what's left of it, has already panicked. The share price is already pricing in a cut. Just holding the divi flat would keep KMI in jail.
    Dec 8, 2015. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cutting The Dividend Now Will Increase Kinder Morgan's Value  [View article]
    I would agree that $45 on the pref seems like an arbitrary value, but I think if they cut the divi then there is pretty decent upside in the pref (immediately), and then over time given the yield.
    Dec 8, 2015. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long Kinder Morgan, But Happy To See It Fall  [View article]
    Tired about reading about KMI. I don't own it and never have, though I've held other MLPs and hold EPD still. EPD has been crushed with the sector and unlike the author I am not happy to see it fall. What gets me is just how time is spent on KMI by SA readers and contributors. And I mean spent, it's time you will not get back. Move on. The stock market is huge and other opportunities are available. Admittedly I read the KMI posts, but I think it's more because I may have some strange attraction to train wrecks. I need to move on to.
    Dec 4, 2015. 12:12 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan’s investment grade rating at risk as Moody's lowers outlook  [View news story]
    EPD, maybe the best run MLP, said in their last call that they will work with their customers. Implying that if needed they will offer some price relief. So I believe that KMI may face some push back.

    I'm sure there is some tax loss selling going on, but the dividend yield over the last couple of months was telling you that there were issues here. As usual, the rating agencies are late to the game. Expect others to pile on, but the smart money got out of KMI a long time ago.
    Dec 1, 2015. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LNG Export Is Beginning - One Sector Is A Clear Winner  [View article]
    Larry, at what price per mcf did the Chinese government lower the price of natural gas to? Is the new price will LNG producers still be able to make a profit?
    Nov 26, 2015. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dunkin Brands Group - Why Shouldn't A Disappointing 3Q Worry You?  [View article]
    The company's growth depends on its existing franchisees and new franchisees signing up. The business model is more sensitive to new store openings than it is to same store sales growth. For now the cash on cash return for new franchises remains attractive and there seems to be no shortage of people who want to own one. Cash on cash returns are 25%, though they are slightly lower out west due to higher build costs.

    DNKN is still massively cash generative and will continue to buy back stock. I'm a long time holder and will stay with the shares but if the erosion in same store sales growth continues this will impact the P/e. So a cautious hold on this one.
    Nov 11, 2015. 03:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LNG Export Is Beginning - One Sector Is A Clear Winner  [View article]
    Wills, I think it is a stretch to say nat gas demand is "rapidly" replacing heating oil in the northeast. There is a pipeline issue. Getting nat has across the Hudson into the northeast will take time. This is why Marcellus gas sells well below Henry Hub. As for the premiss of the article you commented on, One Sector is a Clear Winner, I'm a little skeptical. Most of the nat gas that will eventually be exported from the US is targeted for the Pacific Basin. That market is steadily moving away from fixed prices based on the price of oil to a spot market. This is similar to what happened to iron ore, where prices have collapsed. There is plenty of nat gas being produced in the Middle East, and soon a lot will be coming out of Australia and PNG, that will be competing with whatever the US produces for export. Demand is growing but maybe supply is growing faster.
    Nov 9, 2015. 06:11 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: The Other Shoe Just Dropped  [View article]
    The pipeline is a sideshow relative to the balance sheet / cost of capital issues facing KMI.
    Oct 25, 2015. 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment