"Volumes in Brazil in March, in particular, were more challenging than expected," Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD) says, impacted by high food inflation and a slowdown in the growth of disposable income. "We expect these factors to continue to put pressure on volumes in the short term. We are therefore revising our outlook for volume growth in Brazil and now expect that beer industry volumes in FY13 will be either flat or down low single-digits compared to FY12." [View news story]
Don't get Bud the brand confused with BUD, the ticker symbol. BUD is the ADR for Anheuser Busch InBev, based in Belgium where the ordinary shares trade under the ABI symbol. AmBev is controlled by BUD/ABI and sells mostly in Latin America (they also own Labatt's in Canada).Their brands in Brazil include Brahma and Antarctica, but they also sell Budweiser and Stella, two of their parent company's brands.
Budweiser accounts for almost zero of their sales in Latin America. Beer volumes are down in Brazil because prices are way up. Costs have risen and they have passed that on to the consumers with a 7% increase in prices. Q1 numbers released today were, I think worse than expected, but shares are up almost 6%. There had been significant selling pressure on the shares since the start of the year, so bad news may have been reflected in the share price.
The rise of AT&T and Verizon in the TV/Internet market at the expense of DirecTV (DTV -0.2%) and Dish Network (DISH +0.8%) increases the odds the two satellite players merge. Not only does a DISH-DTV deal appear more likely to clear regulatory hurdles now, by the numbers it makes more sense than ever. Another point to consider, Dish Network CEO Charlie Ergen wasn't exactly shy about the topic on his company's earnings call. [View news story]
I'm curios. Aren't CATV broad band speeds significantly faster than DSL, and T's U verse service? Only VZ's FiOS service, which is fiber to the home, vs T's fiber to the node, is equal to what CATV offers. And since it does not make economic sense to for VZ to roll out FiOS across its entire footprint, then in the end telcos will lose out to CATV. I see DTV and Dish surviving separately, or as one, in this environment because eventually CATV companies may start selling more aggressively, I think a couple already do, stand alone broadband services. I believe that the broadband piece of the triple play bundle has the highest margin. So I'm seeing a world where telcos slowly shrink, CATV grows, and satellite has place.
The Real Reason Apple Keeps Going Down [View article]
Apple's growth over the next few quarters will be very strong, however in another quarter or two you will begin to see sequentail, quarter/ quarter growth turn negative. Year/ year growth will remain strong into fiscal 2014 but then it too turns neagtive. You want to get out of growth stocks, no matter what the valaution, well in adavnce of this happening. I had a client ask me why I sold the stock when all the research report he could find were positive on it. My response - " exactly". We've seen this with Nokia and RIM, and other hot product stocks. To own Apple right now is to bet on some futue product (TV maybe), but that comes closer to speculation than investing. I only sold half the position however, so waiting/ hoping for a rebound to complete the exit.
Alerian MLP Makes Tax Payment, Raises Expense Ratio [View article]
I have used AMJ as well in all of my tax defered accounts, while owning MLPs directly in my taxable accounts. The extra burden of the K-1s is not that great if you have a tax preparer do your returns. given the growth in the MLP market K-1 filings are becoming standard fair. AMJ has done better than AMLP, but not by that much which makes me want to back and see what is going on there.
A Closer Look At El Paso Pipeline Partners' 2011 Distributable Cash Flow [View article]
Ron, the declining throughput volumes may be an area of concern. Unlike many of the other nat gas MLPs EPB is not really a play on NGLS. It is all about being a toll road for natural gas. With all of the new shale plays being connected into the country's natural gas grid the flows of gas are changing. Could they be changing in a way that disadvantages EPB? Parent EP owns the TNG pipeline which brings gas into Pennsylvania from the Gulf Coast, and Spectra owns a pipeline that does as well. Both would be appear to be hurt longer term by the Marcellus/ Utica. Not sure how EPBs pipes are impacted, if at all.
Letting It Ride: The ECB's Long-Term Refinancing [View article]
Marc, yes another good article. However, I am unsure what policies thatGermany could undertake to replicate a currency appreciation. A higher VAT in Greece makes all good more expensive, not just imported ones, si it has a powerful impact on domestic demand. Would a lower VAT in Germany have as powerful a positive impact on consumption.?
Also, if the weaker European countries leave the Euro does that not make the Euro a stronger currency and move it back in the direction of the DM?
Correlation Grows Between MLP Returns, Oil Price [View article]
Ron, I bleive that over the last couple of years the correlation has diminished. When I first started buying MLPs in ealry 2009 there appeared to be a strong correlation between oil and the sector, and I rmember certain research reports and articles in the press suggesting why there should not be. The sector was smaller back then as a number of new MLPs have been listed and of course the older MLPs have accessed the capital markets seemingly on an annual basis. I believe the investor base has grown and changed. it's much less retail. Also shale-gas has become a real story over the last two years and many MLPs are a play on that. I appreciate your work by the way.
Clough Capital: 3 Interesting Closed-End Funds Are Quasi Hedge Funds [View article]
Robert, I am looking in the review mirror and see nothing that suggests these funds will outperform in the future. Clough has underperformed in all market environments. He was an equity strategist at Merrill, and like most equity strategist, when it comes to managing real money he has failed. The best thing that could happen to these funds is that an activist shareholder gets involved and either takes over the management of them or opens them up so that the discount can be eliminated. Your suggestion that they are worth a "shot" is not how I, or anyone should invest.
Clough Capital: 3 Interesting Closed-End Funds Are Quasi Hedge Funds [View article]
These funds have underperformed over any time frame you can find. Has something changed at Clough Investments that would make you think that the performance of these funds will change?
Rough Day for Master Limited Partnerships [View article]
This sell off has nothing to do with the price of oil and everyhting to do with the threat of taxation. It's a risk but it must be a small one. These MLPs are building out our energy infrastrucure. They are an important link in getting newly discovered domestic gas to market. Cheap domestic gas will improve our trade balance by limiting oil imports, has already revitalized US chemical exports by providing low cost feedstock to our chemical companies, is environmentaly appealing, and creates jobs in big states like TX, PA and OH. Hard to see any member of one of these states' congressional delagations voting for a tax on MLPs. .
"Volumes in Brazil in March, in particular, were more challenging than expected," Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD) says, impacted by high food inflation and a slowdown in the growth of disposable income. "We expect these factors to continue to put pressure on volumes in the short term. We are therefore revising our outlook for volume growth in Brazil and now expect that beer industry volumes in FY13 will be either flat or down low single-digits compared to FY12." [View news story]
Budweiser accounts for almost zero of their sales in Latin America. Beer volumes are down in Brazil because prices are way up. Costs have risen and they have passed that on to the consumers with a 7% increase in prices. Q1 numbers released today were, I think worse than expected, but shares are up almost 6%. There had been significant selling pressure on the shares since the start of the year, so bad news may have been reflected in the share price.
The rise of AT&T and Verizon in the TV/Internet market at the expense of DirecTV (DTV -0.2%) and Dish Network (DISH +0.8%) increases the odds the two satellite players merge. Not only does a DISH-DTV deal appear more likely to clear regulatory hurdles now, by the numbers it makes more sense than ever. Another point to consider, Dish Network CEO Charlie Ergen wasn't exactly shy about the topic on his company's earnings call. [View news story]
The Real Reason Apple Keeps Going Down [View article]
Alerian MLP Makes Tax Payment, Raises Expense Ratio [View article]
A Closer Look At El Paso Pipeline Partners' 2011 Distributable Cash Flow [View article]
Lowell
Letting It Ride: The ECB's Long-Term Refinancing [View article]
Also, if the weaker European countries leave the Euro does that not make the Euro a stronger currency and move it back in the direction of the DM?
Correlation Grows Between MLP Returns, Oil Price [View article]
Clough Capital: 3 Interesting Closed-End Funds Are Quasi Hedge Funds [View article]
Clough Capital: 3 Interesting Closed-End Funds Are Quasi Hedge Funds [View article]
Rough Day for Master Limited Partnerships [View article]