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  • LNG Export Is Beginning - One Sector Is A Clear Winner [View article]
    Larry, at what price per mcf did the Chinese government lower the price of natural gas to? Is the new price will LNG producers still be able to make a profit?
    Nov 26, 2015. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dunkin Brands Group - Why Shouldn't A Disappointing 3Q Worry You? [View article]
    The company's growth depends on its existing franchisees and new franchisees signing up. The business model is more sensitive to new store openings than it is to same store sales growth. For now the cash on cash return for new franchises remains attractive and there seems to be no shortage of people who want to own one. Cash on cash returns are 25%, though they are slightly lower out west due to higher build costs.

    DNKN is still massively cash generative and will continue to buy back stock. I'm a long time holder and will stay with the shares but if the erosion in same store sales growth continues this will impact the P/e. So a cautious hold on this one.
    Nov 11, 2015. 03:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LNG Export Is Beginning - One Sector Is A Clear Winner [View article]
    Wills, I think it is a stretch to say nat gas demand is "rapidly" replacing heating oil in the northeast. There is a pipeline issue. Getting nat has across the Hudson into the northeast will take time. This is why Marcellus gas sells well below Henry Hub. As for the premiss of the article you commented on, One Sector is a Clear Winner, I'm a little skeptical. Most of the nat gas that will eventually be exported from the US is targeted for the Pacific Basin. That market is steadily moving away from fixed prices based on the price of oil to a spot market. This is similar to what happened to iron ore, where prices have collapsed. There is plenty of nat gas being produced in the Middle East, and soon a lot will be coming out of Australia and PNG, that will be competing with whatever the US produces for export. Demand is growing but maybe supply is growing faster.
    Nov 9, 2015. 06:11 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: The Other Shoe Just Dropped [View article]
    The pipeline is a sideshow relative to the balance sheet / cost of capital issues facing KMI.
    Oct 25, 2015. 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: La Quinta CEO Leaves, Guidance Lowered [View article]
    Josh, just checked back in on LQ's share price. I owned the stock from a few months after the IPO and read your early negative comments on the shares. Didn't buy into your thesis at first, but upon further thought, and reflecting my own concern about the energy economy, decided to sell. Realized a reasonable profit but was not too happy at first as the shares continued to go up. Anyway, happy to have sold. Never expect to buy at the bottom or sell at the top. One of the best argued opinions I have read on SA. Thanks
    Oct 24, 2015. 11:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan -4.5% as plan to move away from equity financing lacks specifics [View news story]
    Kinder is not a snake oil salesmen. No one is saying that. Factors out of his control are at work. An extended period of low oil was probably not in his plans. He would not have been so aggressive with debt and equity issuance if he had known. Maybe he should never have gotten into the CO2 biz. However, expect at some point things will recover but more downside must be a consideration given debt load.
    Oct 21, 2015. 07:14 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan -4.5% as plan to move away from equity financing lacks specifics [View news story]
    Distributable cash flow is not free cash flow. Unlikely free can flow will cover the dividend.
    Oct 21, 2015. 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Kinder Morgan's Debt That Bad? [View article]
    Brandon in comparing KMI with other MLPs you use free cash, DCF, and OCF. These are all different things and cannot be compared with each other. Focusing on DCF, which all of these companies provide, would have been more useful. However, even then you have to make adjustments because the companies define in different ways. I.e. Some adjust for working capital in different ways and also play around with maintenance capex. DCF is definitely not free cash flow. And DCF coverage of distributions does not mean that the distribution is also covered by cash flow. In KMI's accounts FCF does not cover distributions. This is why they sell shares ever quarter into the market. This is ok if it's a short term measure to cover distributions, but if it is ongoing then I do not want to be involved.
    Sep 24, 2015. 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Kinder Morgan Stuck With More LNG? [View article]
    Boliertender, I will answer for JerryofNC. Year to date spot LNG cargoes delivered into the Pacific Basin have averaged $7.55/MMBtu, down 50% from a year ago. This is according to Platts. They go on to say that long term contracts that are indexed to oil dropped 47% from last year. At these prices it would still make economic sense for a US exporter to send cargoes into the Pacific, but the numbers ae not nearly as compelling as some had hopped when the discussion about US LNG exports began a few years ago.
    Sep 17, 2015. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Kinder Morgan Stuck With More LNG? [View article]
    geocat, the price of nat gas had to be high to justify building gasification plants in the US so that the US could import it. Hess Oil a few years ago wanted to build a gasification plant in Rhode Island that would receive LNG cargoes from Trinidad, and perhaps the Middle East, and then be gasified here. The economics of that quickly fell apart when nat gas prices collapsed in the US on the back of fracking technology. In fact the Chenier liquefaction plant in Louisiana that will soon be exporting LNG was originally planned as a regasification plant that would receive LNG imports. The low cost of US nat gas ($2.80) makes exports from the US very competitive on a global basis even after liquefaction and shipping costs.
    Jul 24, 2015. 11:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Kinder Morgan Stuck With More LNG? [View article]
    Casey, I think you are right that nat gas prices will decouple from oil. In fact, it is already happening. In Europe Gazprom has renegotiated prices and uncoupled them, in part, from oil. In Asia the spot market for LNG cargoes is growing rapidly. In many ways there are similarities with the Iron Ore market. For years the producers ( BHP, RIO, etc,) set prices that had little to do with supply and demand. This fell apart a few years ago and Iron Ore prices collapsed. I expect to see the same with LNG. With Mid East LNG, New Australian production ramping up, and eventually some level of US exports, all fighting for market share in the Pacific Basin, I am not that optimistic on LNG pricing. Yes, nat gas is the fuel of the future, but we may still be oversupplied. Don't know what the economics are of liquifying US nat gas so when along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and then sending it through the canal to Asia are, but Shell may think they are not that appealing.
    Jul 22, 2015. 06:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dunkin' Brands: On The Right Track But Not The Right Time To Buy [View article]
    Liang Yu, they take a cut of the top line. Thus inflation is good for them. Further, the franchise owner pays for advertising and the cost of the central commissary. DNKN is a complete asset light company. Everybody likes to compare them to SBUX, but there are as many differences in the respective business models as there are in the respective consumer experience.
    Jul 15, 2015. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dunkin' Brands: On The Right Track But Not The Right Time To Buy [View article]
    The cost of eggs, coffee, etc does not impact DNKN because the franchisees carry that cost. The impact of higher egg prices could impact sales if franchisees raise prices and that results in lower demand, but that's it.
    Jun 19, 2015. 07:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon-AOL: Whither The Huffington Post? [View article]
    Randy B, why do you think it is worth $1 - 1.5 bn? Just trying to figure this out. Not interested in the politics. Thanks
    Jun 11, 2015. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon-AOL: Whither The Huffington Post? [View article]
    It's worth $1 bn if somebody is willing to pay that. Is there any info about what sort of revenue it generates and whether or not it makes a profit.
    Jun 4, 2015. 09:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment