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Apple: If I Could Buy And Hold Only One Stock, This Is It... 2nd Anniversary
I find the comparison between Apple and Google interesting and respectfully take issue with your preference for Apple.
Every search that Is done on Google makes the next search better. I.e every search provides new information to the algorisms that informs and refines subsequent searches. Because Google has well over 50% of the search market they do more searches than their next biggest competitor. Assuming that users go to the search engine that gives them the most relevant results Google's position is unassailable. They own their market.
That is not the case with Apple. Every great consumer product becomes commoditized. The iPhone is the best product out there, but instead of pulling away from the pack, like Google in search, they are seeing the pack close in. The difference between the iPhone and the Galaxy is shrinking. At some point smart phones become a commodity. Don't know when this happens but Apple cannot live on the iPhone forever. I can't buy these shares because I don't know what is next for Apple in terms of new products. It's not enough for me just to hear that they have great R&D, culture, name brand, ecosystem, etc. I've seen this all before with (pick your consumer electronics company) Nokia, Palm, Sony, Nintendo, Atari, Zenith, etc.
I don't see Apple owning more of the cell phone market in 3 years. And I would place a better than 50% probability that Samsung , or somebody else, will have closed the gap even more with the iPhone. Market growth will also slow even more. Apple needs a new product, and they may in fact defy history and pull it off with another revolutionary product. But I'm not comfortable putting money behind that bet. I actually hope they do pull it off. On the other hand I am fairly confident that Google will still own the search market in 2015.
Thus if I was putting money in one of these two stocks for 5 years it would have to be the one has a monopoly on its market
Oct 28, 2013. 06:19 PM
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The Real Reason Apple Keeps Going Down
Apple's growth over the next few quarters will be very strong, however in another quarter or two you will begin to see sequentail, quarter/ quarter growth turn negative. Year/ year growth will remain strong into fiscal 2014 but then it too turns neagtive. You want to get out of growth stocks, no matter what the valaution, well in adavnce of this happening. I had a client ask me why I sold the stock when all the research report he could find were positive on it. My response - " exactly". We've seen this with Nokia and RIM, and other hot product stocks. To own Apple right now is to bet on some futue product (TV maybe), but that comes closer to speculation than investing. I only sold half the position however, so waiting/ hoping for a rebound to complete the exit.
Nov 9, 2012. 02:36 PM
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