L3G3ND's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/842806/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432541/comments?source=feed#comment-18950551 18950551 Fri, 17 May 2013 12:54:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1327171/comments?source=feed#comment-17359341 17359341 Mon, 08 Apr 2013 12:05:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1222331/comments?source=feed#comment-15491991 15491991 Mon, 25 Feb 2013 16:44:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1135341/comments?source=feed#comment-14271561 14271561 Mon, 28 Jan 2013 15:42:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1099631/comments?source=feed#comment-13488271 13488271 Wed, 09 Jan 2013 10:45:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1000391/comments?source=feed#comment-11533721 11533721
The lowest priced surfaces were sold out for the longest time online and have only recently been available for sale again. Again it's interesting to see what MSFT's goals re the surface -- if they wanted higher sales -- you would have thought they would've made it available in more places that at their own stores.

I think we'll really have to wait and see to see where they are going with the entire surface line. ]]> Tue, 13 Nov 2012 01:07:19 -0500
The lowest priced surfaces were sold out for the longest time online and have only recently been available for sale again. Again it's interesting to see what MSFT's goals re the surface -- if they wanted higher sales -- you would have thought they would've made it available in more places that at their own stores.

I think we'll really have to wait and see to see where they are going with the entire surface line. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/900951/comments?source=feed#comment-10272581 10272581
Keep in mind who WU's customer base is -- they are the unbanked and the underbanked. This group of customers are not using paypal, NFC payment systems, etc. Sometimes it is hard to look outside your own socioeconomic class.

Additionally, the regulations that have cost WU some profits over the short term (compliance costs etc.) will over the long term keep their moat in tact as it becomes harder for competitors (technology startups and banks) to get into the business. ]]> Sun, 07 Oct 2012 23:21:07 -0400
Keep in mind who WU's customer base is -- they are the unbanked and the underbanked. This group of customers are not using paypal, NFC payment systems, etc. Sometimes it is hard to look outside your own socioeconomic class.

Additionally, the regulations that have cost WU some profits over the short term (compliance costs etc.) will over the long term keep their moat in tact as it becomes harder for competitors (technology startups and banks) to get into the business. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/854871/comments?source=feed#comment-9232611 9232611 Sat, 08 Sep 2012 18:12:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/853511/comments?source=feed#comment-9215861 9215861
I assume Amazon will make some money on these ads.

(not long Amazon)]]> Sat, 08 Sep 2012 02:33:09 -0400
I assume Amazon will make some money on these ads.

(not long Amazon)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/466931/comments?source=feed#comment-8703741 8703741 Thu, 23 Aug 2012 14:38:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/813221/comments?source=feed#comment-8490151 8490151 Thu, 16 Aug 2012 23:27:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/801611/comments?source=feed#comment-8342581 8342581 Sun, 12 Aug 2012 21:06:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/779451/comments?source=feed#comment-8083911 8083911
While I don't think CSCO is a bad choice, I prefer MSFT, INTC and AAPL. Cisco is cheaper, but has less of a moat (in their core competancies) than the 3 companies I just mentioned.]]> Fri, 03 Aug 2012 21:56:23 -0400
While I don't think CSCO is a bad choice, I prefer MSFT, INTC and AAPL. Cisco is cheaper, but has less of a moat (in their core competancies) than the 3 companies I just mentioned.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/770731/comments?source=feed#comment-8024511 8024511
Out of curiosity where are you from? and do you buy from Amazon? often/rarely/never?]]> Thu, 02 Aug 2012 11:18:22 -0400
Out of curiosity where are you from? and do you buy from Amazon? often/rarely/never?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/770731/comments?source=feed#comment-8021821 8021821
As an investor i'm scared of their valuation -- as a customer i'm completely loyal -- they offer me the absolute best service -- i would likely have no problem paying 4% more (and in some cases probably more) for everything i buy on Amazon.com (My family is probably in their top 1-2% of spenders on Amazon per year). ]]> Thu, 02 Aug 2012 10:22:57 -0400
As an investor i'm scared of their valuation -- as a customer i'm completely loyal -- they offer me the absolute best service -- i would likely have no problem paying 4% more (and in some cases probably more) for everything i buy on Amazon.com (My family is probably in their top 1-2% of spenders on Amazon per year). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/770731/comments?source=feed#comment-8020191 8020191
I read an interview with Jim Chanos that has really helped me with selecting shorts. He basically says to avoid shorting anything that has a strong open ended growth thesis. (He claims he learned this from shorting AOL -- and taking a loss -- even though AOL eventually came to earth) . You culd wait 5 years before amazon comes down to earth (if it does).

I tend to think Amazon will grow nicely into its valuation -- but won't explode higher. ]]> Thu, 02 Aug 2012 09:41:53 -0400
I read an interview with Jim Chanos that has really helped me with selecting shorts. He basically says to avoid shorting anything that has a strong open ended growth thesis. (He claims he learned this from shorting AOL -- and taking a loss -- even though AOL eventually came to earth) . You culd wait 5 years before amazon comes down to earth (if it does).

I tend to think Amazon will grow nicely into its valuation -- but won't explode higher. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/764711/comments?source=feed#comment-8018491 8018491 Thu, 02 Aug 2012 09:02:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/770731/comments?source=feed#comment-8011411 8011411
You are very brave to short Amazon. I must commend you for your guts. (Personally I'm neither short nor long Amazon as I don't have the guts to do either). The short thesis is fairly obvious -- valuation.

The bull thesis, though, can be scary for shorts. First off, Amazon has macro tailwinds behind it -- sales growth on the internet around the world will grow tremendously and Amazon has been growing their share of those sales. And the % of $$ sales that are done online is still miniscule leaving tons of growth remaining.

(I think your argument is basically that revenue growth is fairly insignificant without earnings growth -- I get that. )

BUT. I see 2 main issues that may be very scary for a long term short.
1) What exactly is Amazon's pricing power over the long term? If they are able to raise prices over the longer term and increase margins. Will customers stay with Amazon or leave Amazon over slightly higher prices? With Amazon crushing their online and B&M competitors will that leave them in the long term to raise prices at will?

2) As Amazon expands its infrastructure (unmatched and almost impossible to replicate with tons of time and $$) over time their cost of delivery should continue to decline.

Ultimately it is very possible that Amazon will become the world's largest and most profitable retailer over the next 10 years. That would be very bad news for a short. While your short thesis is logical -- I wonder if you at least concede of the possibility that in the long term 5+ years a short position in Amazon could be devastating to your portfolio.]]> Thu, 02 Aug 2012 00:49:02 -0400
You are very brave to short Amazon. I must commend you for your guts. (Personally I'm neither short nor long Amazon as I don't have the guts to do either). The short thesis is fairly obvious -- valuation.

The bull thesis, though, can be scary for shorts. First off, Amazon has macro tailwinds behind it -- sales growth on the internet around the world will grow tremendously and Amazon has been growing their share of those sales. And the % of $$ sales that are done online is still miniscule leaving tons of growth remaining.

(I think your argument is basically that revenue growth is fairly insignificant without earnings growth -- I get that. )

BUT. I see 2 main issues that may be very scary for a long term short.
1) What exactly is Amazon's pricing power over the long term? If they are able to raise prices over the longer term and increase margins. Will customers stay with Amazon or leave Amazon over slightly higher prices? With Amazon crushing their online and B&M competitors will that leave them in the long term to raise prices at will?

2) As Amazon expands its infrastructure (unmatched and almost impossible to replicate with tons of time and $$) over time their cost of delivery should continue to decline.

Ultimately it is very possible that Amazon will become the world's largest and most profitable retailer over the next 10 years. That would be very bad news for a short. While your short thesis is logical -- I wonder if you at least concede of the possibility that in the long term 5+ years a short position in Amazon could be devastating to your portfolio.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/764711/comments?source=feed#comment-8006611 8006611
In retrospect -- that rumor that ANF was going to : buy back a ton of stock and B) curtail their European expansion should've been a hint that things were going poorly. Of course, hindsight is always 20/20]]> Wed, 01 Aug 2012 20:24:03 -0400
In retrospect -- that rumor that ANF was going to : buy back a ton of stock and B) curtail their European expansion should've been a hint that things were going poorly. Of course, hindsight is always 20/20]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/764711/comments?source=feed#comment-8002371 8002371 Wed, 01 Aug 2012 17:37:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/764711/comments?source=feed#comment-8000271 8000271 Wed, 01 Aug 2012 16:45:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/764711/comments?source=feed#comment-7999951 7999951 Wed, 01 Aug 2012 16:37:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/764711/comments?source=feed#comment-7990321 7990321 Wed, 01 Aug 2012 13:19:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/764711/comments?source=feed#comment-7981201 7981201 Wed, 01 Aug 2012 09:53:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/764711/comments?source=feed#comment-7968111 7968111
I respect the short opinion on ANF -- possibly losing their appeal with teens (my biggest worry), european weakness/euro weakness, etc. But I actually just initiated a long position on ANF. I am bracing for a horrible quarter, perhaps even a bad year -- but I believe in them over the long term. For the most part my faith in ANF is due to their strong management team that has performed excellently over the years.

(I don't think ANF or the ARO or AEO release monthly sales -- could be mistaken though).

Keep in mind a few things: When ANF breaks out same stores sales in the U.S. for example, they do not include DTC ( online) whereas Macys for example takes into account online growth in their same store sales #s. So MAcy's numbers will look inflated.

Also keep in mind prior to Q1 earnings ANF's estimates were $3.50-$3.75 EPS and the stock was trading at $50.00+. Clearly after the Q1 report people do not believe those #s are possible -- if they did the stock would not have traded down so heavily. I think while it's likely that ANF will report a bad quarter -- the major risk is to the upside -- as even a halfway decent quarter/outlook will cause the stock to pop (similar to SNDK who had horrible #s just not as horrible as feared).

I cannot wish you gluck on this trade -- but I wish you good luck on all your other trades!]]> Tue, 31 Jul 2012 20:39:31 -0400
I respect the short opinion on ANF -- possibly losing their appeal with teens (my biggest worry), european weakness/euro weakness, etc. But I actually just initiated a long position on ANF. I am bracing for a horrible quarter, perhaps even a bad year -- but I believe in them over the long term. For the most part my faith in ANF is due to their strong management team that has performed excellently over the years.

(I don't think ANF or the ARO or AEO release monthly sales -- could be mistaken though).

Keep in mind a few things: When ANF breaks out same stores sales in the U.S. for example, they do not include DTC ( online) whereas Macys for example takes into account online growth in their same store sales #s. So MAcy's numbers will look inflated.

Also keep in mind prior to Q1 earnings ANF's estimates were $3.50-$3.75 EPS and the stock was trading at $50.00+. Clearly after the Q1 report people do not believe those #s are possible -- if they did the stock would not have traded down so heavily. I think while it's likely that ANF will report a bad quarter -- the major risk is to the upside -- as even a halfway decent quarter/outlook will cause the stock to pop (similar to SNDK who had horrible #s just not as horrible as feared).

I cannot wish you gluck on this trade -- but I wish you good luck on all your other trades!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/731981/comments?source=feed#comment-7717541 7717541 Tue, 24 Jul 2012 17:27:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/695711/comments?source=feed#comment-7650521 7650521
This is an interesting scenario. Obviously "PEEK" sees some value in LOOK, but believes that current management is actually destroying value -- and would like to displace them. I do believe that if the company continues for an extended period of time with current management it would be a $$ losing proposition for shareholders.

Does PEEK want to A) take the company and shut the doors, harvest the cash? B) merge the company with another company taking advantage of the NOLs C) they see some value in the technology they could sell? D) some combination of the above (i'm sure there is more i am missing).

I'm also not sure if they would be able to get 35%+ (not including their own shares) to tender. If I knew they would be able to accomplish this goal I would certainly buy the stock and tender (11% with certainty is great 1 month return -- and is better than a potential better return). The question is really what is the mindsight of the other large shareholders in LOOK. ]]> Sun, 22 Jul 2012 20:58:23 -0400
This is an interesting scenario. Obviously "PEEK" sees some value in LOOK, but believes that current management is actually destroying value -- and would like to displace them. I do believe that if the company continues for an extended period of time with current management it would be a $$ losing proposition for shareholders.

Does PEEK want to A) take the company and shut the doors, harvest the cash? B) merge the company with another company taking advantage of the NOLs C) they see some value in the technology they could sell? D) some combination of the above (i'm sure there is more i am missing).

I'm also not sure if they would be able to get 35%+ (not including their own shares) to tender. If I knew they would be able to accomplish this goal I would certainly buy the stock and tender (11% with certainty is great 1 month return -- and is better than a potential better return). The question is really what is the mindsight of the other large shareholders in LOOK. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/665251/comments?source=feed#comment-6534311 6534311 Mon, 18 Jun 2012 12:55:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/639121/comments?source=feed#comment-6418271 6418271 Thu, 14 Jun 2012 10:59:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/639121/comments?source=feed#comment-6385961 6385961
A) Take your dividends in A shares
B) get $0 in dividends and get wiped out.

I'll choose option A. Thank you very much. ]]> Wed, 13 Jun 2012 13:04:40 -0400
A) Take your dividends in A shares
B) get $0 in dividends and get wiped out.

I'll choose option A. Thank you very much. ]]>