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  • Grupo Prisa's Important Deal [View article]
    Everyone who is saying that it is a "bad" deal. If compare getting dividends in A shares or cash - give me the cash. Bu if you are in the real world, your options are :

    A) Take your dividends in A shares
    B) get $0 in dividends and get wiped out.

    I'll choose option A. Thank you very much.
    Jun 13 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Settlement Gets TiVo Closer To Fair Value - But Not Close Enough [View article]
    I'm finally entering TIVO again (didn't sell at the highs but around 11 as usual) - buying here around 8.50 -- it's a steal.
    May 30 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Take On 'Why I Am Leaving Goldman' [View article]
    his statement that "at some price, any stock is a buy" is mostly accurate. Outright frauds are the exception.
    Mar 15 10:42 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zipcar's Future: After The Earnings [View article]
    i have been contemplating a speculative investment in ZIP. I expect that Zip Car will continue to do well in mega cities, but how will its expansion outside of these cities do? I just dont have a good feel on that.
    Feb 26 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Is Selling Underperforming Stores ... Not [View article]

    I think the sale was actually very likely a win/win for GGP and Sears. Here's my take: GGP is happy b/c they purchased a wonderful property for a reasonable price. While the property may be worth $250 million for GGP, for Sears it probably was not worth this -- as their stores are flat out underperforming. (Are there regions where Sears is actually doing well?)
    Feb 25 04:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Primer on Agency REITs and 6 That Currently Yield Over 12% [View article]
    i hold 1000 shares of NLY in a ROTH IRA -- first time buying a REIT. In your experience what does the UBTI look like for NLY? Are there any weird tax liabilities for your ROTH IRA regarding this? thanks
    Feb 2 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Settlement Gets TiVo Closer To Fair Value - But Not Close Enough [View article]
    The core of my argument is actually the following : Despite having an incredible product, Tivo failed because it was unable to gain the support of the cable industry and for the average consumer it is just too much of a hassle to buy a Tivo separately.

    The Virgin, RCN, and Charter deals signal a huge shift. The cable companies are actually CHOOSING Tivo (without threat of litigation). This is the key, can they convince more cable companies to sell their services.

    (also keep in mind if you back out the cash of the company the Enterprise value is only $5). Is it a risky proposition, yes. But their is significant upside (> 100%) if they can actually pull it off.
    Jan 13 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Settlement Gets TiVo Closer To Fair Value - But Not Close Enough [View article]
    Vince, I think the core of our disagreements are concerning the MSOs. You say Tivo would've gotten into the MSO business years ago, but you fail to acknowledge that the cable providers did NOT want to be partners with Tivo, instead, they wanted to steal the technology and make money off selling their own DVR services. This is the entire reason why Tivo was forced to litigate.

    What has changed is that some cable providers are actually finding that offering Tivo's solution is GOOD for them. This is a huge change. Comcast, Cox, DirecTV (originally had a good partnership, but it was crushed when Malone took it over) -- all signed with Tivo to prevent being sued.

    Is TOm rogers including the 1 off $51 million or only the licensing fees that AT&T and Dish are paying them from those settlements?
    Jan 13 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Settlement Gets TiVo Closer To Fair Value - But Not Close Enough [View article]
    The CEO, Tom Rogers, has come out and said that Tivo will be very profitable this year! (Not sure if he means including the 1 time legal victories or not). I've been one of the guys telling you you're wrong about Tivo (but for the most part I've still been trading the stock, selling when it's close to 11 and buying at $9 or lower).

    The fact that I see huge MSO growth and a path to profitability makes me wonder if this time is different, if i should hold on to it. I do believe that they have a lot of traction this year. Despite being at this point a veteran technology company, their new business is in their infancy who knows how it'll play out in the long term.

    Vince, i still disagree with you about which subs are the most important. TIvo owned subs while bringing in significant revenue cost Tivo a ton to acquire (in marketing and hardware losses), while MSO subs are essentially free and all profit. Finally the transition to online viewing of content for most people will take longer than you think.
    Jan 12 09:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VirnetX Vs. Apple In Patent Battle: ITC Launches Investigation; Represents Major Shift [View article]
    VHC has a great PR and an excellent legal team. Otherwise, their company is all fluff. It is a great short.

    Disclosure: Not currently short, but always looking to short VHC.
    Dec 6 12:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Earnings "Beat" Doesn't Change Short Case For TiVo [View article]
    dont worry charter is going to a full tivo solution soon. Where everything is fully integrated with Charter. And you won't have to deal with these problems -- which has inherently been Tivo's big problem.
    Nov 25 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Earnings "Beat" Doesn't Change Short Case For TiVo [View article]
    I agree with this statement that there is strong resistance around $11. And Tivo has always been a great trading vehicle over the years -- short term longs and shorts have made a killing (I did so going very long every time it goes very cheap, and never holding above $11) -- mainly b/c I was not sure about Tivo's future and b/c it has never proven itself to be consistently profitable. We are talking about Tivo's long term prospects. I believe Tivo has indeed turned a corner.

    I think you're a bit crazy to think that most people will give up cable in favor of streaming media like netflix -- but that is another discussion for another day. If you believe that is true shorting cable operators is a much stronger player -- they have a lot more value to lose. Tivo shoudl have well over 2 million MSO subscribers -- by the end of Q4 FY 2013 (we're in Q4 FY 2012).

    Gavstar -- if you listen or read Virgin Media's CC you'll see exactly the opposite. You'll see that their 10% customer churn has turned to a 3% customer GAIN with Tivo. You'll see that 40% of the 222,000 people that have so far signed on with Virgin Media with Tivo were previously not Virgin Media customers. So Virgin Media's Tivo subscribers were 50,000 in the first 3 months, then 113,000 net adds appx in the next 3 months, and in october alone 60,000 net adds. There is much more to read about how the Tivo product is helping the capture business. This will transform Tivo's business.
    Nov 25 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Earnings "Beat" Doesn't Change Short Case For TiVo [View article]
    Tivo's deal with Virgin Media has completely transformed the company. For years, Tivo's problem has been that they had no "true" partners in the way of cable providers. Cable companies for the most part refused to sign on with Tivo and made it difficult for people to hook up their Tivo products. The companies that reached agreements with Tivo did so mainly to protect against litigation (personally I don't see why Tivo agreed to sign such bad deals they should have litigated). The Virgin Media deal has shown cable providers that not only can Tivo be a value added service that people are gladly willing to pay for -- it can actually differentiate your business in a way that will allow you to actually gain business.

    It has been costing Tivo a lot of time and money to build out these custom TV solutions for the likes of Virgin, Ono, Charter, etc. and the increased RD that you see now is, in theory, Tivo modifying their solution such that each additional deal can be implemented faster and cheaper.

    Why would you think that Verizon and AT&T are the end of the line regarding litigation? Based on their current deals Where do you expect their MSO #s to be by the end of next year? If you look carefully, this number should explode.
    Nov 23 10:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision: Cramer Says Pass, I Say Jump Right In [View article]
    One issue with buying ATVI is the vivendi overhang.
    Nov 17 01:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Best Buy Eating's Lunch? [View article]
    Let's be honest though the only ACTUAL reason you are shorting amazon is valuation! If amazon was selling at BestBuy's valuation... you'd be buying as much as you can of Amazon.
    Nov 13 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment