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L3G3ND

L3G3ND
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  • A Value Investor's Case For Clearwire [View article]
    Cale,

    I've been doing my own research on Clearwire -- it definitely seems interesting. It definitely seems that there is a the possibility to make multiples on your investment, but bankruptcy seems very possible as well. Clearwire is highly levered, currently running an inferior technology, and needs substantial new funds to continue existing. If there is fallout from Europe and there is a credit freeze -- Clearwire will be in trouble. It reminds me of the casinos in early 2009.
    Oct 12, 2011. 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: A Contrarian Long-Term Play [View article]
    I've been looking into making an investment in FSLR. However, I have many concerns in investing in ANY solar company. The Solar industry is still in its infancy, and it is unclear of when if they will ever be profitable without subsidies. I tend to believe solar power will fill a role in at least some parts of most developed countries. The other question is whether or not this generation of solar companies will end up being the winners or will be the next generation, or the current established energy companies like XOM. For example, look at the internet search, although it ended up being huge many of the early leaders like excite, lycos, etc have all disappeared.

    Sure FSLR does have great potential -- but I think there is substantial risk investing in any solar company at this point. Although I like the article, I'm not yet convinced to buy -- although it's good that the price has come down greatly -- I'm not convinced that FSLR will be one of the end game winners -- although they are clearly in the lead now.
    Oct 11, 2011. 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Is Overvalued And Could Make A Good Short [View article]
    I am usually a fan of your articles, but in this case it misses the boat. Yahoo is a strange situation in that they have $3.5 billion in cash, $ 6 billion stake in Yahoo Japan and a $13 billion stake in alibaba group and as well as their core business, brand, IP etc.

    Imagine if instead of the Plaza at Central Park South in NYC, there was a gas station that was sitting there and it owned he land below it and the air rights above it. Would it be valued based on how much gas it was selling?
    Oct 7, 2011. 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Yahoo Worth? [View article]
    You are mistaken about their earnings. If Yahoo sold Yahoo Japan and the Alibaba stake -- the earnings to Yahoo would remain the same. The Affiliates that generate money for Yahoo still will generate money for yahoo whether yahoo continues to own the yahoo japan and alibaba stake. It's not like they are getting a "dividend" for their ownership of yahoo japan and are counting that in their income. Additionally, any buyer of Yahoo would likely believe that with the right leadership, they could turn yahoo around. The reason yahoo has sold so cheaply for so long is the belief that management and the board was unable and unwilling to unlock the value in the company.

    I do believe that this process will be drawn out for longer than people think.

    The big question/headache is that yahoo is not going to be an easy acquisition. 1) It is quite large -- not easy for Private equity to just buy a $25-$30 billion dollar business. 2) Unless a goliath like Microsoft takes over yahoo and keeps it in full, Alibaba will ALMOST certainly have to be involved in such a transaction . 3) the board and management has screwed it up once before (even with Icahn pressing them)-- they will have to prove themselves adequate. I'm glad to have Dan Loeb on board putting pressure on them, but it definitely helps if the Yang and his co-founder are on board with a sale.
    Oct 1, 2011. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Alibaba The Natural Buyer For Yahoo? [View article]
    There is almost no chance that Yahoo gets sold for any price under $20 per share.

    Alibaba 12.8 billion, yahoo Japan 6-8 Billion, Cash $3.3 Billion.
    These are the well defined valuations in yahoo now. The hardest part to value has been the Alibaba group stake, but it now has a value thanks to the Silver Lake deal.

    As much as people think Yahoo is floundering it is still generating $.75 of earnings this year and is expected to grow double digits earnings next year. So If you plaace a conservative PE of 8x , Yahoo is worth $6 a share (or appx $7.5 billion roughly). Additionally, if whatever investor can turn around Yahoo, it would be worth far more to them.

    Yahoo has always had very valuable parts. The issue as an investor in Yahoo was simply -- how is the board going to unlock this value? Also the issue was -- how valuable is alibaba -- it was always a guess. My worry as a Yahoo investor is that somehow the board will muck it up -- even with Dan Loeb on board (they mucked it up with Icahn the last time).

    I expect that yahoo will be sold between $25-$30 billion.
    Oct 1, 2011. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dolby Keeps Marching Ahead [View article]
    I'm looking to invest in DLB. Are you still long? What are your views on the companies recent issues over the past year that has driven the stock down over 50%.
    Sep 29, 2011. 01:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP's Apotheker Exits With $25 Million Severance [View article]
    I'm going to take the unpopular side of this argument. Generally, these CEOs have "paid their dues" and highly coveted, additionally, they are in a highly stressful and demanding job. It's similar for example, to a contract paid to the New York Yankees manager. Even if the manager ends up being terrible, his contract is guaranteed (CEO packages are even more insane). It is general consensus that you can't get the very best talent/leadership without paying up big time. If a CEO ends up being great (especially for a company as large as HP) the rewards to shareholders and the company will make almost ANY compensation look like peanuts. The problem with 100% performance based pay -- you lose out on a large pool of great candidates and what performance would you be basing it on -- revenue increase? earnings? share price?
    Sep 24, 2011. 02:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion Bulls Needed: Salary Commensurate With Experience [View article]
    I have not been willing to touch Rimm, but if Rimm falls under $15 I'm almost definitely a buyer!
    Sep 15, 2011. 07:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Is Why Bruce Berkowitz Has 18% Of His Fund in AIG [View article]
    principle, i think the writer is actually saying that berkowitz is doing the opposite. Bruce Berkowitz is actually just reading the annual reports/earnings reports/balance sheets, and determining that these companies are undervalued. Those who are shorting the BAC and AIG are the ones assuming that the books are cooked and that there are bombs that could destroy these firms.
    Sep 7, 2011. 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Is Why Bruce Berkowitz Has 18% Of His Fund in AIG [View article]
    Surprised that you left out Buffett and KO.
    Sep 7, 2011. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greenlight Capital: Retail Investors Can Buy a Top Hedge Fund for Close to Book Value [View article]
    I like that GLRE invests its float with Einhorn. Although -- it seems pretty crappy that GLRE pays his typical fees (isn't that just juicing his own profits -- not unethical -- just saying). Why wouldn't you rather own BRK where they invest their float with an as good (if not superior) investor -- without paying a fee. Additionally, BRK's insurance and other businesses have a better track record.
    Sep 1, 2011. 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greenlight Capital: Retail Investors Can Buy a Top Hedge Fund for Close to Book Value [View article]
    Does David Einhorn charge GLRE the typical fee for participating in his hedge fund? Or do they invest the float in Greenlight Capital for free?
    Aug 18, 2011. 11:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer and Berkowitz Weigh In: Has Bank of America Stock Bottomed? [View article]
    I guess the issue is what level of risk you are willing to take. There is a high level of uncertainty in these companies. Once everything shakes out -- the stocks will either have gone close to $0 or made you a hefty hefty profit.
    Aug 18, 2011. 10:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clorox Should Not Accept Carl Icahn's Offer [View article]
    Kraken,

    Any shareholder of Clorox would have to be a bit insane to not want to sell at $80 in today's market. Given the current low yields in treasuries a GUARANTEED appx 25% gain is nothing to sneeze at.
    Aug 18, 2011. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: A Regal Dividend Stock Going Cheap [View article]
    I feel that JNJ is a decent value at this pt. I'm always looking to buy into JNJ in fact, I recently sold my position in JNJ at 66 and 67. But why JNJ over the other great values in the market right now. I know JNJ and PG have nice yields, but have you considered TEVA? It has a smaller dividend yield, but the yield is growing much faster AND they are trading at under 8x this years earnings!

    I am looking to get back into JNJ, PG, PEP, BRKA or KO. My main question would be why would you pick JNJ in particular OVER these other names, when JNJ has actually had some short term issues recently that have actually pushed the stock lower than current levels (that's when I initially picked up JNJ during the Japan disaster).
    Aug 10, 2011. 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
179 Comments
115 Likes