TiVo: Quite an Attractive Short Candidate [View article]
Chad you still don't get it... tivo's partnerships STINK -- at least for now. Right now they collect nothing from most DVRs even from their partnered companies. Dish directly stole their technology and therefore not only owes a one time $300 + million but $1-2 per month per dvr to keep their DVRs going.
What is unclear for me -- is exactly how wide a range Tivo's patents extend. DISH partnered with Tivo early and directly stole their technology and cannot continue to offer DVRs at all without paying Tivo for each and every DVR they operate. Sadly for Tivo this is not the case with their other partner companies.
This court case is huge for Tivo. If their patents prove to have no value -- their business has no value. If their patents are upheld they could be to DVRs as Qualcom are to CDMA phones If their patents are not upheld their company is almost worthless.
Also if you want to short Tivo and believe they have nothing to offer... you'd want to short them after they win their court battle and the stock skyrockets. Because otherwise you could be right and still be smoked by a Tivo court win .
Long Amazon, Short Yahoo: Remarkable Streak vs. Non-Existent Growth [View article]
You may be right about Yahoo not being well run. But is Yahoo Japan well run? and is Alibaba Group well run? That is the question you have to ask yourself as a Yahoo long/short. I believe buying Yahoo stock, you're getting the US business free. And you are paying up for your 40% stake in Alibaba Group and 30% stake in Yahoo Japan. If Taobao, Alipay, alibaba.com explode shorting yahoo would crush you.
As a Yahoo investor I would love for the Yahoo core business to turn around -- but buying Yahoo -- what I really care about is owning Taobao, Alipay, Alibaba.com, and Yahoo Japan on the cheap.
The Hard Money Has Been Made In Imperial Holdings [View article]
CLearly I sold too early :D! Good luck to everyon else gong forward. This deal I think -- moreso preserves value rather than adding value. but clearly the market disagrees.
The Hard Money Has Been Made In Imperial Holdings [View article]
I'm a big fan of Phil Goldstein and cherry pick his investments often. I was long IFT from the low 3s. Thank you Phil. But I'm out now. I tend to think with these kind of investments the best returns are generated when everyone else thinks it's a very hairy investment, and you don't. Once the investment is cleaned up, for me it's time to move on.
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
Can you discuss Microsoft and Cisco's earnings growth since 2000? Perhaps their stocks cratered because valuation was too high. I love how you compare the stocks, but let's look at it from a company performance standpoint. If Apple follows a similar path of revenue growth deceleration and moderate earnings growth that Cisco and Microsoft had over the last 10 years -- what would Apple's earnings per share look like in 10 years? If Apple simply stabilizes and becomes a slow grower over the next 10 years an investment in Apple will be very profitable (if earning crater, that's another story entirely).
Western Union's Fair Value Is At $21, Even In A No-Growth Scenario [View article]
Western Union can potential do very well especially if you are buying at these prices. however, there is a lot of downside risk -- They seemed to have a large moat -- but the moat in mexico seemed to crater overnight. the question is not how much money they'll earn over the next year or 2 , but rather if disruptive technologies or new services will render their business obsolete IF NOT you will likely do very well on the investment.
Significant Upside Potential For Multiband In 2013 [View article]
Ok. Can someone help me out to clarify the new structure of the MBND takeover of MDTV. Originally the takeover was going to be in shares of multiband + possibly cash based on a price band. Then when the stock price tanked -- they changed it to $12.9 Million in cash. Finally, they giving prferreds that convert at MBND $4 a share and paying 6.5% on the preferreds - I assume their paying 6.5% on 12.9 Million? Can anyone help? or at least point me to details on the new deal? thx.
Microsoft And Nokia See A Couple Of Important Developments [View article]
My take on the surface is that while it's sleek and has a very high quality feel to it -- too heavy, possibly too large, and difficult to use as a laptop ... on your lap (great on table). That being said, it is way way too early to call it a flop -- especially when it is unclear what exactly Microsoft's motivations are for producing it in the first place -- I mean they could've easily been selling the surface in all the big box retailers but they're no.
The lowest priced surfaces were sold out for the longest time online and have only recently been available for sale again. Again it's interesting to see what MSFT's goals re the surface -- if they wanted higher sales -- you would have thought they would've made it available in more places that at their own stores.
I think we'll really have to wait and see to see where they are going with the entire surface line.
I think you need to reevaluate your thesis regarding smart phone technology being a huge risk to WU's business.
Keep in mind who WU's customer base is -- they are the unbanked and the underbanked. This group of customers are not using paypal, NFC payment systems, etc. Sometimes it is hard to look outside your own socioeconomic class.
Additionally, the regulations that have cost WU some profits over the short term (compliance costs etc.) will over the long term keep their moat in tact as it becomes harder for competitors (technology startups and banks) to get into the business.
where is your source for this piece of information? The only information I could find on the sale to GGP was that they were all in/part of GGP owned malls/properties>
Not sure what you expected being that RIMM is a large customer. I actually think if you're bullish on RIMM but too afraid to buy it -- buying MRVL might be a sneaky way of doing that.
A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words [View article]
I understand that this is a public comment board and you're talking your book -- but generally -- every investment long/short has its risks. There is rarely ever a true free cup of coffee :D. Whether they are right or wrong many incredibly intelligent investors (even a couple hardcore value guys I know) view Amazon as their best bet. They view Amazon as purposefully suppressing their short term profitability to gain market share and hurt their competitors -- and that they will be one of the world's greatest retailers in 5-10 years (profits/cashflow). Whatever you think of Amazon (long/short) -- Amazon's strategy has had brutal affects on their competition.. why not short them? Won't amazon be able to raise prices similar to standard oil when their competitors are gone?
As an investor i'm scared of their valuation -- as a customer i'm completely loyal -- they offer me the absolute best service -- i would likely have no problem paying 4% more (and in some cases probably more) for everything i buy on Amazon.com (My family is probably in their top 1-2% of spenders on Amazon per year).
TiVo: Quite an Attractive Short Candidate [View article]
What is unclear for me -- is exactly how wide a range Tivo's patents extend. DISH partnered with Tivo early and directly stole their technology and cannot continue to offer DVRs at all without paying Tivo for each and every DVR they operate. Sadly for Tivo this is not the case with their other partner companies.
This court case is huge for Tivo. If their patents prove to have no value -- their business has no value. If their patents are upheld they could be to DVRs as Qualcom are to CDMA phones If their patents are not upheld their company is almost worthless.
Also if you want to short Tivo and believe they have nothing to offer... you'd want to short them after they win their court battle and the stock skyrockets. Because otherwise you could be right and still be smoked by a Tivo court win .
Long Amazon, Short Yahoo: Remarkable Streak vs. Non-Existent Growth [View article]
As a Yahoo investor I would love for the Yahoo core business to turn around -- but buying Yahoo -- what I really care about is owning Taobao, Alipay, Alibaba.com, and Yahoo Japan on the cheap.
Why I'm Buying Multiband Hand Over Fist [View article]
The Hard Money Has Been Made In Imperial Holdings [View article]
The Hard Money Has Been Made In Imperial Holdings [View article]
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
Western Union's Fair Value Is At $21, Even In A No-Growth Scenario [View article]
Significant Upside Potential For Multiband In 2013 [View article]
Microsoft And Nokia See A Couple Of Important Developments [View article]
The lowest priced surfaces were sold out for the longest time online and have only recently been available for sale again. Again it's interesting to see what MSFT's goals re the surface -- if they wanted higher sales -- you would have thought they would've made it available in more places that at their own stores.
I think we'll really have to wait and see to see where they are going with the entire surface line.
Why Western Union Is Fairly Priced [View article]
Keep in mind who WU's customer base is -- they are the unbanked and the underbanked. This group of customers are not using paypal, NFC payment systems, etc. Sometimes it is hard to look outside your own socioeconomic class.
Additionally, the regulations that have cost WU some profits over the short term (compliance costs etc.) will over the long term keep their moat in tact as it becomes harder for competitors (technology startups and banks) to get into the business.
Amazon.com Throws Down The Gauntlet [View article]
I assume Amazon will make some money on these ads.
(not long Amazon)
Sears Already Liquidating? [View article]
Marvell's Q2 Miss: Long-Term Strength Despite Short-Term Weakness [View article]
Yahoo Investors Are Overly Discounting Cash Balance And Acquisition Track Record [View article]
A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words [View article]
As an investor i'm scared of their valuation -- as a customer i'm completely loyal -- they offer me the absolute best service -- i would likely have no problem paying 4% more (and in some cases probably more) for everything i buy on Amazon.com (My family is probably in their top 1-2% of spenders on Amazon per year).