Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Is Seeing Increased Weakness In A Weak Economy [View article]
i just sold my position -- after reviewing everyone else's sales -- it looks like it's more of an ANF problem and lss of a macro one (although that of course is an impact) gl all. A short here might be dangerous so watch out and gluck all.
A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words [View article]
Paolo,
You are very brave to short Amazon. I must commend you for your guts. (Personally I'm neither short nor long Amazon as I don't have the guts to do either). The short thesis is fairly obvious -- valuation.
The bull thesis, though, can be scary for shorts. First off, Amazon has macro tailwinds behind it -- sales growth on the internet around the world will grow tremendously and Amazon has been growing their share of those sales. And the % of $$ sales that are done online is still miniscule leaving tons of growth remaining.
(I think your argument is basically that revenue growth is fairly insignificant without earnings growth -- I get that. )
BUT. I see 2 main issues that may be very scary for a long term short. 1) What exactly is Amazon's pricing power over the long term? If they are able to raise prices over the longer term and increase margins. Will customers stay with Amazon or leave Amazon over slightly higher prices? With Amazon crushing their online and B&M competitors will that leave them in the long term to raise prices at will?
2) As Amazon expands its infrastructure (unmatched and almost impossible to replicate with tons of time and $$) over time their cost of delivery should continue to decline.
Ultimately it is very possible that Amazon will become the world's largest and most profitable retailer over the next 10 years. That would be very bad news for a short. While your short thesis is logical -- I wonder if you at least concede of the possibility that in the long term 5+ years a short position in Amazon could be devastating to your portfolio.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Is Seeing Increased Weakness In A Weak Economy [View article]
just started a new position. at 28.63. i look at the right multiple for them as 15. The question is simply if there business will continue to deteriorate further.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Is Seeing Increased Weakness In A Weak Economy [View article]
despite my long term view on ANF i expect it to be weak in the very short term if Knight Capital really has so many extra shares on hand... . I wonder exactly what the deal was and what kind of tech error it was. I'm sure knight will get sued but even though the moves were out of line -- i doubt there will be an reversals (as opposed to people buying EXC at 1 penney or PG for $48 during the flash crash) .
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Is Seeing Increased Weakness In A Weak Economy [View article]
It was crazy. I picked up some of the shares that traded in the low 33s pre hours -- and sold those shares at 36. but still have my original bunch. I will give the analysts more credit than you are giving them. I'm not sure how earnings are going -- assuming they're lowsy -- but the surprise risk is definitely to the upside. (in terms of stock reaction pummeling shorts vs longs). In the time I wrote this -- the stock wet from 35.50 to $34 back to $35.50
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Is Seeing Increased Weakness In A Weak Economy [View article]
David,
I respect the short opinion on ANF -- possibly losing their appeal with teens (my biggest worry), european weakness/euro weakness, etc. But I actually just initiated a long position on ANF. I am bracing for a horrible quarter, perhaps even a bad year -- but I believe in them over the long term. For the most part my faith in ANF is due to their strong management team that has performed excellently over the years.
(I don't think ANF or the ARO or AEO release monthly sales -- could be mistaken though).
Keep in mind a few things: When ANF breaks out same stores sales in the U.S. for example, they do not include DTC ( online) whereas Macys for example takes into account online growth in their same store sales #s. So MAcy's numbers will look inflated.
Also keep in mind prior to Q1 earnings ANF's estimates were $3.50-$3.75 EPS and the stock was trading at $50.00+. Clearly after the Q1 report people do not believe those #s are possible -- if they did the stock would not have traded down so heavily. I think while it's likely that ANF will report a bad quarter -- the major risk is to the upside -- as even a halfway decent quarter/outlook will cause the stock to pop (similar to SNDK who had horrible #s just not as horrible as feared).
I cannot wish you gluck on this trade -- but I wish you good luck on all your other trades!
Content Is King, Distribution Is Queen: The Case For 3 Media Companies [View article]
That's the crazy thing about Pris.B I own some my cost basis is around $3.00. Despite what I think is a very good risk reward scenario I'm not sure it matters if my cost is $3 or $2.50. What I care about more in this investment is limiting my losses. If things work out with PRIS.B i can make 5x-10x my $$. If not I will likely lose 100% of the investment. One of the few investments I LOVE, but am unwilling to add to .
Looksmart Is Worth More Than Its Cash [View article]
the company can only buy shares at a rate of 25% of the daily volume So based on their avg daily volume, they'd likely be able to buy about $6-7k worth of stock a day.
This is an interesting scenario. Obviously "PEEK" sees some value in LOOK, but believes that current management is actually destroying value -- and would like to displace them. I do believe that if the company continues for an extended period of time with current management it would be a $$ losing proposition for shareholders.
Does PEEK want to A) take the company and shut the doors, harvest the cash? B) merge the company with another company taking advantage of the NOLs C) they see some value in the technology they could sell? D) some combination of the above (i'm sure there is more i am missing).
I'm also not sure if they would be able to get 35%+ (not including their own shares) to tender. If I knew they would be able to accomplish this goal I would certainly buy the stock and tender (11% with certainty is great 1 month return -- and is better than a potential better return). The question is really what is the mindsight of the other large shareholders in LOOK.
Everyone who is saying that it is a "bad" deal. If compare getting dividends in A shares or cash - give me the cash. Bu if you are in the real world, your options are :
A) Take your dividends in A shares B) get $0 in dividends and get wiped out.
Zipcar's Future: After The Earnings [View article]
i have been contemplating a speculative investment in ZIP. I expect that Zip Car will continue to do well in mega cities, but how will its expansion outside of these cities do? I just dont have a good feel on that.
A Primer on Agency REITs and 6 That Currently Yield Over 12% [View article]
i hold 1000 shares of NLY in a ROTH IRA -- first time buying a REIT. In your experience what does the UBTI look like for NLY? Are there any weird tax liabilities for your ROTH IRA regarding this? thanks
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Is Seeing Increased Weakness In A Weak Economy [View article]
A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words [View article]
You are very brave to short Amazon. I must commend you for your guts. (Personally I'm neither short nor long Amazon as I don't have the guts to do either). The short thesis is fairly obvious -- valuation.
The bull thesis, though, can be scary for shorts. First off, Amazon has macro tailwinds behind it -- sales growth on the internet around the world will grow tremendously and Amazon has been growing their share of those sales. And the % of $$ sales that are done online is still miniscule leaving tons of growth remaining.
(I think your argument is basically that revenue growth is fairly insignificant without earnings growth -- I get that. )
BUT. I see 2 main issues that may be very scary for a long term short.
1) What exactly is Amazon's pricing power over the long term? If they are able to raise prices over the longer term and increase margins. Will customers stay with Amazon or leave Amazon over slightly higher prices? With Amazon crushing their online and B&M competitors will that leave them in the long term to raise prices at will?
2) As Amazon expands its infrastructure (unmatched and almost impossible to replicate with tons of time and $$) over time their cost of delivery should continue to decline.
Ultimately it is very possible that Amazon will become the world's largest and most profitable retailer over the next 10 years. That would be very bad news for a short. While your short thesis is logical -- I wonder if you at least concede of the possibility that in the long term 5+ years a short position in Amazon could be devastating to your portfolio.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Is Seeing Increased Weakness In A Weak Economy [View article]
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Is Seeing Increased Weakness In A Weak Economy [View article]
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Is Seeing Increased Weakness In A Weak Economy [View article]
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Is Seeing Increased Weakness In A Weak Economy [View article]
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Is Seeing Increased Weakness In A Weak Economy [View article]
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Is Seeing Increased Weakness In A Weak Economy [View article]
I respect the short opinion on ANF -- possibly losing their appeal with teens (my biggest worry), european weakness/euro weakness, etc. But I actually just initiated a long position on ANF. I am bracing for a horrible quarter, perhaps even a bad year -- but I believe in them over the long term. For the most part my faith in ANF is due to their strong management team that has performed excellently over the years.
(I don't think ANF or the ARO or AEO release monthly sales -- could be mistaken though).
Keep in mind a few things: When ANF breaks out same stores sales in the U.S. for example, they do not include DTC ( online) whereas Macys for example takes into account online growth in their same store sales #s. So MAcy's numbers will look inflated.
Also keep in mind prior to Q1 earnings ANF's estimates were $3.50-$3.75 EPS and the stock was trading at $50.00+. Clearly after the Q1 report people do not believe those #s are possible -- if they did the stock would not have traded down so heavily. I think while it's likely that ANF will report a bad quarter -- the major risk is to the upside -- as even a halfway decent quarter/outlook will cause the stock to pop (similar to SNDK who had horrible #s just not as horrible as feared).
I cannot wish you gluck on this trade -- but I wish you good luck on all your other trades!
Content Is King, Distribution Is Queen: The Case For 3 Media Companies [View article]
Looksmart Is Worth More Than Its Cash [View article]
This is an interesting scenario. Obviously "PEEK" sees some value in LOOK, but believes that current management is actually destroying value -- and would like to displace them. I do believe that if the company continues for an extended period of time with current management it would be a $$ losing proposition for shareholders.
Does PEEK want to A) take the company and shut the doors, harvest the cash? B) merge the company with another company taking advantage of the NOLs C) they see some value in the technology they could sell? D) some combination of the above (i'm sure there is more i am missing).
I'm also not sure if they would be able to get 35%+ (not including their own shares) to tender. If I knew they would be able to accomplish this goal I would certainly buy the stock and tender (11% with certainty is great 1 month return -- and is better than a potential better return). The question is really what is the mindsight of the other large shareholders in LOOK.
Grupo Prisa's Important Deal [View article]
Grupo Prisa's Important Deal [View article]
A) Take your dividends in A shares
B) get $0 in dividends and get wiped out.
I'll choose option A. Thank you very much.
AT&T Settlement Gets TiVo Closer To Fair Value - But Not Close Enough [View article]
Zipcar's Future: After The Earnings [View article]
A Primer on Agency REITs and 6 That Currently Yield Over 12% [View article]