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rmgillis

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  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    Good point!
    Apr 17 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    What sumikuboanr is saying about the non-Major Markets is that we may be missing out on the second dosing of the earlier patients in the non-major markets.

    Since the Major Markets sales begin the first full quarter after the initial sale in that market, we won't be getting any second-dose sales in those markets counting toward Sales Milestone #1 ($400MM).

    On the other hand, non-major markets had the possibility of 4 quarters of sales, with a large percentage of those pre-sale period patients getting their second-year follow-up dose (albeit at somewhat lower dollar amount) thus losing a 4-quarter stream of new patients at full price and a built-in stream of the patients from the previous 4 quarters. Potentially, if adoption ramps up somewhat the second year this could almost double the revenue that counts toward Sales Milestone #1. (SM1)

    Of course, there could be a flood of patients early on who have been waiting for approval and the second year may have fewer new patients, or sales could pick up steam as word spreads among MS patients- many unknowns. This could be good for total sales as long as there is a steady stream of new Lemtrada patients the next year- enough to make up the 20% or so lower revenue for dose #2 and those who for whatever reason don't get dose #2.

    So, any patients starting in a non-major market from April 1 2014 to late March 2015 will count as about .8 of a new patient the next year, provided they do get that second dose about 1 year later. This is revenue denied to the 5 Major Markets.

    Example: Lets say, in the Grand Duchy of Fenwick, 100 patients receive Lemtrada before March 31, 2015 at $75000 per patient and 90 of them receive does number two within twelve months. (10 wait over 12 months or can't/won't take dose #2)

    If those 90 patients got dose#2 at $60,000 each and 61 new patients at $75000 each were treated with Lemtrada from April 1, 2015 to March 31, 2016, that would generate ~$10 million toward SM1.
    If, instead, patients had to wait until April 2015 before Lemtrada was available, and ~133 patients were treated during the next 4 quarters, this would also result in $10 Million toward SM1.

    Thus, if hypothetical pent-up demand in a non-major market doesn't exceed about 50% of these erstwhile second-year new patients, then it would be better for GCVRZ holders if the drug were available now in each non-major market. (based on 25% lower revenue and a 90% retention rate for dose#2)
    If however, second year revenues are less than half the first years revenue, a just-in-time start could be better.

    Since some early adopters may be delayed by their doctors the just-in-time scenario is probably not the best. There are also those who will become too ill after waiting an extra year.
    Apr 16 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Handle A Big Gain [View article]
    Awilco management has done exactly what they said they were planning to do, or better all the way back to the beginning of the company. I haven't find anything to rival it for enterprise value and yield per share.
    I don't mind how long the SP languishes with the expert management and the long term contracts bringing home 5% per quarter.

    Happily, I also bought some of the stock in question at $4 on 3/31.
    Apr 3 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gas Natural: Investigation And Insider-Selling Suggests Trouble Ahead [View article]
    Now Osborne is touting his pipeline conversion project in Maine on the same day he had to report that the PUCO order rehearing has been denied. Reminiscent of the tiny secondary offering covering management's simultaneous mass exodus of the stock.
    Feb 9 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10% Guaranteed Return* [View instapost]
    RRR, AWLCF is my #1 position with 25K shares and its still on sale at under $20/share. The fourth dividend will be announced pre-market (Oslo time) on Feb 24. It's about 2 months after the ex-div date that the brokerages stateside include the latest dividend in the yield. So it may be April before the stock screeners will see the 20-24% yield.

    Chris, please ignore the nitpicker, it sounds interesting and fun to me and many others. Enjoy yourself with this.
    Feb 7 05:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Is Ready For Substantial Earnings And Dividend Boost [View article]
    From Awilco Drilling's Investor relations chief: (via tankerat)

    We believe today's dip in the share price is due to a new tax proposal put forward by the HMRC (The British tax authorities) late last week. The proposal could potentially increase Awilco Drilling's effective tax rate at a group level. A consultation period for the proposal is scheduled for January 2014 and the final outcome is therefore not yet known.

    It is also worth noting that the proposal has been pushed through by the HMRC and has not necessarily been approved in principal by the Treasury. The Treasury has previously indicated that there would be no more "tax surprises" for the oil & gas sector, and that they would be more interested in ensuring the longer term benefits that can be reaped from a stable oil & gas sector rather than a short term hit.

    There is currently a strong pushback form the oil & gas industry on this proposal and several meetings with both the HMRC and the Treasury will take place to present the Industry's view on the proposal. Until the consultation period is over and we know more of its outcome, it is difficult to be more specific of any potential consequences.


    Kind regards,
    Cathrine Haavind
    Dec 12 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Is Ready For Substantial Earnings And Dividend Boost [View article]
    OnThursday a huge block of roughly 200 thousand shares was sold at what I imagine was a market order at The Oslo Bors of AWDR. Clearly a large holder took massive profits on their huge position. The US market wAs closed of course...

    I consider this a great buying opportunity today.
    Nov 29 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust I About To Drop By 50% [View article]
    I recently bought 200 contracts of 2.5 puts for DEC for a nickel then sold half for 10c today so whatever I can get for the other half is profit. I am also in $5 puts in Dec at 60c.

    After studying Whiting's nice spreadsheet on WHX results over the the life of the trust, this latest good quarter comes from the 11.1% better Oil/NGL avg price $89.94 vs $80.94, increased gas output (+5%) also with a slight increase in avg realized Gas prices -- $3.65 vs $3.74. There was also an extra day this quarter (92 days).

    288.3 MBOE of the cap of 9.11 MBOE have been sold. The trust gets 90% of that after expenses and taxes. The following spreadsheet shows where the per share money goes and you can see that based on the post hedging quarters' results that WHX averages under 50% of gross sales going into shareholder's pockets. Even with $104+ oil prices, the chances of over $3
    of payout before trust termination are low. $3 will be a very good
    overall payout going forward from here. By defintion, the more the production now, the less in the final payment. Discounting the
    the future value, the only reason WHX is over $2.5 is gamblers
    playing the greater fool theory.

    =========PER SHARE RESULTS=================
    22nd Dist 23rd Dist
    8/29/2013 11/29/2013 PER SHARE
    2Q13 3Q13

    0.01146 0.01150 Oil Volume Bbl
    0.00133 0.00134 NGL Volume Bbl
    0.01279 0.01284 Oil & NGL Volume BOE's
    0.04595 0.04774 Gas Volume MCF
    0.02045 0.02080 Total Volume BOE's
    0.00014 0.00014 BOE/d
    5% -1% % Change in BOE/d prior
    0.00050 0.00052 Mcf/d
    -2% 4% % Change in Mcf/d prior

    $0.992 $1.111 Sales - Oil
    $0.043 $0.000 Sales - NGL's
    $1.035 $1.155 Sales - Oil and NGL's
    $0.168 $0.179 Gas Sales
    $1.203 $1.333 Total Sales
    $0.510 $0.566 Lease Operating Cost
    $0.079 $0.092 Production Taxes
    $0.000 $0.000 Hedging Loss (Income)
    $0.589 $0.658 Total Costs

    $0.615 $0.592 Net Proceeds - 100%
    90% 90%
    $0.553 $0.000 Income from NPI
    -$0.016 -$0.010 Trust Expense Withholding
    -$0.003 -$0.005 Montana Tax Withholding
    $0.534 $0.592 Net Cash Avail Distribution
    1 1 Units Outstanding
    0.53 0.59 Distribution per Unit
    ======================...
    PER BOE results
    $58.83 $64.11 Gross proceeds per BOE
    $30.05 $28.46 Net Proceeds per BOE
    $27.04 $25.61 90% of net
    $26.09 $28.47 after trust expenses
    ======================...
    2Q13 3Q13
    $0.188 $0.205 per share per 100K BOE

    There are 1.49 gross mBOE's left to pay
    Using the past 8 quarters efficiency results,
    we could see the following TOTAL payouts over
    the life of the trust.

    Using that quarter's financial efficiencies per share

    Total distribution possible at each quarter's rate:
    (removing hedges)
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    $3.06 $3.05 $2.71 $2.13 $2.49 $2.47 $2.80 $3.06


    Quarterly lease Operating costs per share
    (by far, the largest single line item expense)
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    .49 .54 .53 .57 .54 .52 .51 .57

    Distribution as % of gross sales
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    37% 38% 39% 48% 44% 53% 49% 49%
    Nov 14 07:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Trust I: New Strategy For Profits - An Update [View article]
    I bought 200 contracts of 2.5 puts for DEC for a nickel sold half for 10c today so whatever I can get for the other half is profit. I am also in $5 puts in Dec at 60c.

    After studying Whiting's nice spreadsheet on WHX results over the the life of the trust, this latest good quarter comes from the 11.1% better Oil/NGL avg price $89.94 vs $80.94, increased gas output (+5%) also with a slight increase in avg realized Gas prices -- $3.65 vs $3.74. There was also an extra day this quarter (92 days).

    288.3 MBOE of the cap of 9.11 MBOE have been sold. The trust gets 90% of that after expenses and taxes. The following spreadsheet shows where the per share money goes and you can see that based on the post hedging quarters' results that WHX averages under 50% of gross sales going into shareholder's pockets. Even with $104+ oil prices, the chances of over $3
    of payout before trust termination are low. $3 will be a very good
    overall payout going forward from here. By defintion, the more the production now, the less in the final payment. Discounting the
    the future value, the only reason WHX is over $2.5 is gamblers
    playing the greater fool theory.

    =========PER SHARE RESULTS=================
    22nd Dist 23rd Dist
    8/29/2013 11/29/2013 PER SHARE
    2Q13 3Q13

    0.01146 0.01150 Oil Volume Bbl
    0.00133 0.00134 NGL Volume Bbl
    0.01279 0.01284 Oil & NGL Volume BOE's
    0.04595 0.04774 Gas Volume MCF
    0.02045 0.02080 Total Volume BOE's
    0.00014 0.00014 BOE/d
    5% -1% % Change in BOE/d prior
    0.00050 0.00052 Mcf/d
    -2% 4% % Change in Mcf/d prior

    $0.992 $1.111 Sales - Oil
    $0.043 $0.000 Sales - NGL's
    $1.035 $1.155 Sales - Oil and NGL's
    $0.168 $0.179 Gas Sales
    $1.203 $1.333 Total Sales
    $0.510 $0.566 Lease Operating Cost
    $0.079 $0.092 Production Taxes
    $0.000 $0.000 Hedging Loss (Income)
    $0.589 $0.658 Total Costs

    $0.615 $0.592 Net Proceeds - 100%
    90% 90%
    $0.553 $0.000 Income from NPI
    -$0.016 -$0.010 Trust Expense Withholding
    -$0.003 -$0.005 Montana Tax Withholding
    $0.534 $0.592 Net Cash Avail Distribution
    1 1 Units Outstanding
    0.53 0.59 Distribution per Unit
    ======================...
    PER BOE results
    $58.83 $64.11 Gross proceeds per BOE
    $30.05 $28.46 Net Proceeds per BOE
    $27.04 $25.61 90% of net
    $26.09 $28.47 after trust expenses
    ======================...
    2Q13 3Q13
    $0.188 $0.205 per share per 100K BOE

    There are 1.49 gross mBOE's left to pay
    Using the past 8 quarters efficiency results,
    we could see the following TOTAL payouts over
    the life of the trust.

    Using that quarter's financial efficiencies per share

    Total distribution possible at each quarter's rate:
    (removing hedges)
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    $3.06 $3.05 $2.71 $2.13 $2.49 $2.47 $2.80 $3.06


    Quarterly lease Operating costs per share
    (by far, the largest single line item expense)
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    .49 .54 .53 .57 .54 .52 .51 .57

    Distribution as % of gross sales
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    37% 38% 39% 48% 44% 53% 49% 49%
    Nov 14 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Trust I: New Strategy For Profits [View article]
    I bought 200 contracts of 2.5 puts for DEC for a nickel sold half for 10c today so whatever I can get for the other half is profit. I am also in $5 puts in Dec at 60c.

    After studying Whiting's nice spreadsheet on WHX results over the the life of the trust, this latest good quarter comes from the 11.1% better Oil/NGL avg price $89.94 vs $80.94, increased gas output (+5%) also with a slight increase in avg realized Gas prices -- $3.65 vs $3.74. There was also an extra day this quarter (92 days).

    288.3 MBOE of the cap of 9.11 MBOE have been sold. The trust gets 90% of that after expenses and taxes. The following spreadsheet shows where the per share money goes and you can see that based on the post hedging quarters' results that WHX averages under 50% of gross sales going into shareholder's pockets. Even with $104+ oil prices, the chances of over $3
    of payout before trust termination are low. $3 will be a very good
    overall payout going forward from here. By defintion, the more the production now, the less in the final payment. Discounting the
    the future value, the only reason WHX is over $2.5 is gamblers
    playing the greater fool theory.

    =========PER SHARE RESULTS=================
    22nd Dist 23rd Dist
    8/29/2013 11/29/2013 PER SHARE
    2Q13 3Q13

    0.01146 0.01150 Oil Volume Bbl
    0.00133 0.00134 NGL Volume Bbl
    0.01279 0.01284 Oil & NGL Volume BOE's
    0.04595 0.04774 Gas Volume MCF
    0.02045 0.02080 Total Volume BOE's
    0.00014 0.00014 BOE/d
    5% -1% % Change in BOE/d prior
    0.00050 0.00052 Mcf/d
    -2% 4% % Change in Mcf/d prior

    $0.992 $1.111 Sales - Oil
    $0.043 $0.000 Sales - NGL's
    $1.035 $1.155 Sales - Oil and NGL's
    $0.168 $0.179 Gas Sales
    $1.203 $1.333 Total Sales
    $0.510 $0.566 Lease Operating Cost
    $0.079 $0.092 Production Taxes
    $0.000 $0.000 Hedging Loss (Income)
    $0.589 $0.658 Total Costs

    $0.615 $0.592 Net Proceeds - 100%
    90% 90%
    $0.553 $0.000 Income from NPI
    -$0.016 -$0.010 Trust Expense Withholding
    -$0.003 -$0.005 Montana Tax Withholding
    $0.534 $0.592 Net Cash Avail Distribution
    1 1 Units Outstanding
    0.53 0.59 Distribution per Unit
    ======================...
    PER BOE results
    $58.83 $64.11 Gross proceeds per BOE
    $30.05 $28.46 Net Proceeds per BOE
    $27.04 $25.61 90% of net
    $26.09 $28.47 after trust expenses
    ======================...
    2Q13 3Q13
    $0.188 $0.205 per share per 100K BOE

    There are 1.49 gross mBOE's left to pay
    Using the past 8 quarters efficiency results,
    we could see the following TOTAL payouts over
    the life of the trust.

    Using that quarter's financial efficiencies per share

    Total distribution possible at each quarter's rate:
    (removing hedges)
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    $3.06 $3.05 $2.71 $2.13 $2.49 $2.47 $2.80 $3.06


    Quarterly lease Operating costs per share
    (by far, the largest single line item expense)
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    .49 .54 .53 .57 .54 .52 .51 .57

    Distribution as % of gross sales
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    37% 38% 39% 48% 44% 53% 49% 49%
    Nov 14 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ctrip - Vast Upside, But Shallow Moat  [View instapost]
    As of now at $57, it looks like you hit a CTRIP-LE.
    Oct 29 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Awilco Is Not A Slam-Dunk Investment [View article]
    The Oslo Price of Awilco Drilling (AWDR:NO at Bloomberg) closed at 135 NOK or $22.95 US on Friday. Late afternoon Monday 10-28, It is trading at 122.5 NOK approximately $20.82 US (using today's .17 NOK/USD exchange rate). It will interesting to see what happens today.

    Perhaps a second good opportunity for those who missed out late last week.
    Oct 28 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Trust I: New Strategy For Profits [View article]
    Unlike WHX, WHZ expires only after it produces 11.79 MBOE *AND* the date is Jan 1, 2022 or later. WHX was set up for the Earlier event of its MMBO Target or 10 years.

    Thus, if WHZ production rates are similar to WHX it will pay out a lot more.
    Sep 4 10:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Permian Trust - Shares Recovering After Differential Disaster Last Quarter [View article]
    DJH:

    Are you referring to the 60 wells drilled per quarter? Reportedly the well drilling in Q1 was skewed toward the end of February and production and hopefully slaes and production were slowed because of the extremely poor Midland pricing at that time. Also, it takes almost that many news wells to match the decline existing wells each quarter.

    I expect we will see much improved metrics this quarter on Aug 5.
    Jul 22 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post-Chesapeake Deal, Gastar Even Cheaper Compared To Other Marcellus Pure-Plays [View article]
    Jrookie -Symbol is GST-A (at TDAmeritrade) Annual Div/Yield: $2.16/8.88% at current price of $24.33. B/A spread is about 30c right now. Latest Ex-div was 7-11.
    Jul 18 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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