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  • Tonix Shares Looking Attractive As Clinical Programs Advance Forward [View article]
    Jeff

    You may want to go back for several months to read jonanne's very perceptive comments. You can put in the name joanne in SA search to jump to various comments and start reading. Jonanne generally writes regular prose through multiple comments which are twitter compatible. Its a bit annoying, but there is some really good info and food for thought. It was very interesting to see the founder of SA publicly suggesting in the stock talk that joanne should write a TNXP article. Eli doesn't do that too often, I imagine. Not sure how he managed to happen upon the TNXP stocktalk to begin with.

    PS
    Sorry i kind of repeated the comments before. They didn't show up for a long time.
    Apr 16, 2015. 02:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix Shares Looking Attractive As Clinical Programs Advance Forward [View article]
    Jeff, there are some new thoughts from knowledgable TNXP bull jonanne on the TNXP stocktalk threads for April 11th. It's the one started by Dave172 with 52 replies. Even Eli makes an appearance!

    Looking forward to your article.
    Apr 14, 2015. 02:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix Shares Looking Attractive As Clinical Programs Advance Forward [View article]
    I'm looking forward to your article, Jeff... rather hoping TNXP will stay in the 6s as long as possible whilst waiting for more capital to deploy at such a good price. Perhaps my CRMD will be bought out before TNXP gets too far. I still have some TNXP at 13-14 but more in the 6s.
    Apr 14, 2015. 02:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CorMedix: High Probability Of Phase 3 Success? [View article]
    It just means the announcement will come without preamble. This was the last scheduled update.
    Apr 10, 2015. 05:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    So the Victoria clinic is in BC and has already treated 80 patients with Lemtrada despite the province not requiring insurance reimbursement yet. (or is your contact in Victoria not talking about a local clinic?)

    That seems pretty encouraging for Canada sales, once the report makes reimbursement standard for all provinces - at least if the report is finalized soon. Canada's Lemtrada Milestone #1 clock began April 1.
    Apr 10, 2015. 05:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CorMedix: High Probability Of Phase 3 Success? [View article]
    Very well written article on the bull thesis. I am forwarding it to several friends who need to see what a rare biotech opportunity can look like. I have to thank that Short's article as well to get me to look closely at CRMD even though I had seen it mentioned over and over on the XON/ZOIP/CELG boards at Investor's village. Your Instablog gave a great framework for understanding the situation but this article really brings the details home in an understandable way. Kudos.
    Apr 8, 2015. 05:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cormedix (CRMD): A Potential Near Term Double Or Triple [View instapost]
    Generally, if you guess right, you are rewarded. If the stock price is higher than the option strike at expiration you can always take delivery of the stock-- this may put you in a margin call, if you don't have the liquidity to pay for the stock. Even then, you can add money, sell other stock or sell the stock you of which you just took delivery - often you have days to make the trade, depending on your broker.

    Let's say you bought options because you were thrilled with the opportunity and were not content to just buy the un-leveraged stock because you didn't have enough capital to make a gain commensurate with the EV of the opportunity. Things go well, and a buyout is announced at $20 and you had spent all your capital on $5 options which are now worth somewhere, say, between $14 & $16 (depending on the perception of what could go wrong, or could go even better (a second potential suiter?) a valuable CVR?). The expiration date is nigh and You have no source of money to buy all the stock you optioned for-- you spent your last dollar buying the options.

    What are your *options* at this point?

    1. Sell the options before market close on OPEX Friday.
    2. Allow automatic exercise.
    3. Exercise before expiration. (Technically Saturday for monthlies).

    If you sell, you then could buy as much stock at market price as your receipts allow and hold for the CVR. You could wait and watch the price fluctuate as others decide if they decide what the wait for the CVR is worth.

    If you exercise at the $5 strike price and the stock was being bought out at $15 (no CVR), You could sell about 1/3 of your stock to generate enough to pay for the exercise of the option. A CVR could add to the Stock Price beyond the buyout price, so the announced buyout price is not the critical number -- as always its the market price of the stock.

    If you had the $15 strike price and the buyout was about $15, its possible that you might have to exericse manually after market close on the 18th if the price were manipulated down to allow options to expire worthless. The pressure might be released at close and you might be able to sell for a profit during the after hours session. I did this last year with Gilead [GILD] (not on a buyout) taking a large delivery of stock when the price rose above my strike price after hours on an OPEX Friday. The options could not be sold but they could still be exercised. I did not have the capital to hold the shares so I actually exercised and sold GILD lots piecemeal.

    Since then I have found my self in possession of stocks I couldn't afford many times on Monday morning and took a day or two selling stock to make things tenable (no real margin in the IRA).

    Remember, that the deeper in the money you are the more that is potentially at risk in case of a disaster and the less your leverage is. Stuff somewhere near the money (current price) is a good starting point to find a comfortable fit. After the fact it's easy to see what you should have done-- not so easy beforehand. Try to be too greedy or too "safe" and you could be disappointed. In a case like this, it's tempting to go all in with high leverage in case the buyout is on the high side. Caveat: It seem Murphy's law applies in spades whenever you are dealing with options.

    disclaimer: This is just laymen's experience-based. Not a pro. Take as general food for thought and learn how to exercise with YOUR broker. TDA has a button, you may have to call to exercise (by what time and to whom?) Check ahead of time before you find yourself in an unfamiliar situation.
    Apr 8, 2015. 05:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cormedix (CRMD): A Potential Near Term Double Or Triple [View instapost]
    The option would have little value if CRMD is bought out at the strike price. There is always some uncertainty, so usually such options may have a market for a minuscule amount. Until such a deal is completed, there can always be a higher offer, for example.

    In general, a $15 option is an utter loser at a buyout price of $15 regardless of your purchase price. But a $16 buy out could make a little money. The Sept CRMD calls are about 75c today so you might make 30%. But a buyout @ $20 would net you 500% profit (worth 6x original investment).

    The final value in the case of a buyout would be the stock's tender price minus the option's strike price but not less than $0. Usually, there would be an automatic exercise if you hold until tender date or expiration. Arbitragers will be available for you to sell earlier for to avoid exercising for a small discount. If you want any CVR that might be a part of the buyout deal you will need to hold until you can tender the shares, or just let them be automatically tendered later.

    For CRMD, it seems likely there will be CVRs to cover the Tauropharm situation (if not already resolved) and the possibility of the transferable 12-month QIPD IP protection becoming an saleable asset should the 21st Century Cures Act later become law.
    Apr 8, 2015. 02:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cormedix (CRMD): A Potential Near Term Double Or Triple [View instapost]
    In general:

    In a buyout, you must tender your shares to receive a CVR. So selling in the market beforehand includes selling the future CVR. A 'current value' of the CVR will be priced into market price once announced. The possibility of the buyout falling through may also be priced in.

    CVR's are credited to your broker account. IF untradeable, they still show up in your brokerage account, but make be cryptic looking.

    If milestones are met, you will eventually see money in your brokerage account.
    Mar 30, 2015. 12:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    The 2 caveats to me are:

    1. For major markets that do not post a sale prior to Dec 31, 2015 will count only Q1 2016 sales toward the $400M sales milestone payout of $2.

    2. For the non-major markets, the clock starts running April 1st 2015 regardless.

    France, Spain and Italy need to start sales before the EOY 2015 so that 4 Q's of sales can count and and any more delay in non-major markets are irrevocably lost. Their clocks all start in a few days.

    So, the Australian timing is, indeed, just in time to contribute. Earlier starters (non-major only) may contribute with 2nd year and 1st year infusions.

    There should be a few 2nd year infusions for the final Q of the majors- but initial Q sales have been very small in Germany UK and USA- (the quarter of first sales that does not qualify for the milestone calculation.)

    [All this should already be known to longtime GCVRZ forum readers]

    Hopefully, the DTC US marketing will ramp up sales for Q3 & Q4. The US is the key, but if some non-major adds significant sales, that could be the difference if it's otherwise close.
    Mar 28, 2015. 06:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie files NDA in Japan for 12-week once-daily HCV combo med [View news story]
    How many patients are getting 24 weeks of Harvoni? Most are on 8 weeks and the most of the rest should be getting 12 weeks.

    There is good reason to hide the Express Scripts numbers. If they were good enough to help Express Scripts' and AbbVie's SP then ESP would probably release them. Their sweetheart deal provision about the numbers being confidential wouldn't stop them from releasing if they were clearly 'winning'.
    Feb 20, 2015. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    Two items of interest to GCVRZ owners in the Sanofi 6-K of 2/5/2015 at Edgar: [specifically the EX-99.1 sublink]
    http://1.usa.gov/1A4Jssg

    [from page 10]

    From business net income to consolidated net income (see Appendix 3)

    In 2014, the main reconciling items between business net income and consolidated net income attributable to equity holders of Sanofi were:
    .
    .
    . [snip]
    .
    .

    · A net reversal of impairment of intangible assets of €26 million (of which €135 million in Q4 2014 mainly related to the partial reversal of the Lemtrada® impairment recorded in Q4 2013 and the partial impairments of the rotavirus vaccine and CHC intangibles in Emerging Markets). This item has no cash impact on the Group.

    · A charge of €303 million (of which €126 million in Q4 2014) mainly reflecting an increase in the fair value of contingent considerations related to the CVRs (€82 million, of which €61 million in Q4 2014) and Bayer contingent considerations (€238 million, of which €83 million in Q4 2014) linked to Lemtrada®.
    Feb 13, 2015. 02:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie files NDA in Japan for 12-week once-daily HCV combo med [View news story]
    Here's the analogous GILD NDA for Genotype 1 (Harvoni)

    Sep. 24, 2014-- Gilead Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq:GILD) today announced that the company has submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) to Japan’s Pharmaceutical and Medical Devices Agency (PMDA) for approval of an investigational once-daily fixed-dose combination of the NS5A inhibitor ledipasvir (LDV) 90 mg and the nucleotide analog polymerase inhibitor sofosbuvir (SOF) 400 mg for the treatment of chronic genotype 1 hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in adults. The data submitted in the NDA, which include a Japanese Phase 3 study showing 100 percent SVR12 rates, support the use of LDV/SOF for 12 weeks in treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients with chronic genotype 1 HCV infection, including those with cirrhosis. Patients who achieve SVR12 are cured of HCV infection. If approved, LDV/SOF would simplify HCV treatment for genotype 1 patients in Japan to one daily tablet, eliminating the need for interferon and ribavirin (RBV).

    Primarily due to HCV, Japan has one of the highest rates of liver cancer of any industrialized country. Of the more than one million people in Japan chronically infected with HCV, 70-80 percent are infected with the genotype 1 strain of the virus.

    The NDA is based on data from a Phase 3 clinical trial conducted in Japan (GS-US-337-0113) among 341 treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced genotype 1 patients. In the study, 100 percent (n=83/83) of treatment-naïve and 100 percent (n=88/88) of treatment-experienced patients receiving 12 weeks of LDV/SOF without RBV achieved SVR12.

    Sovaldi's NDA was June 27, 2014. It had only Phase III 97% cure rate in 12 weeks, but better than ABBV's current NDA for V-pak.
    Feb 12, 2015. 12:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: Hold This Attractive Dividend Payer Through 2015 [View article]
    Net profit up: $1.30. Dividend trimmed to $1.00

    Revenue was down, as expected, with the sublet @440k/day ending last quarter. Earnings were down less than $1M despite over $5M less in revenue. Opex was well under guidance at $85k/day. Net profit actually increased but AWilco is retaining more earnings presumably because of the potential headwinds of the marketplace for 2016 after the Wilhunter has completed its yard stay.

    No word on Hess talks in the financial report. The presentation was not yet on the website. Seems unlikely that the option is to be taken. New work will require a new contract. We have the rest of the year to gain one to allow a smooth transition post-SPS.

    So it was another spectacular quarter. The only question is the next contract for February 2016 forward for WilHunter. If there is work in Decom to be had Wilhunter seems like the top candidate rig in every respect: Performance, experience & equipment i.e.; state-of-the-art Blow Out Preventer.

    4 more quarters like this (on existing contracts) and Awilco has enough extra retained earnings to pay $1.20 to shareholders perhaps to tide over the four known months of idle time a year from now. 1 rig-month downtime in Q4 2015, 2 rig-months downtime in Q1 2016 and one rig-month in Q2 2016.

    No real surprises other than the positive beats on EBITDA and Net Profit.
    Feb 12, 2015. 02:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    The rest-of-the-world markets contribute to the total for sales from April 1, 2015 through March 31 2016.

    The 6 Major Markets as yet without sales may launch as late as Dec 31, 2015 and would then have their next 4 quarters count. If a major launches Jan 1 2016 or later, only sales before March 31, 2016 count- same fixed deadline for non-major markets.

    I haven't seen anywhere that France, Italy or Spain have made commercial sales as of Q4. If someone has any info on those launches, I hope they will post it here.

    For those interested: The CVR page at SNY is here:
    http://bit.ly/1ddvwOm

    Be sure to click these two links from the page linked to above.

    Product Sales Statement Q4 2014
    Status of CVR Product Sales Milestone #1 as of January 16, 2014

    Despite the Jan 2014 date, the status document answers many questions.
    Feb 5, 2015. 05:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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