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  • Awilco Drilling: Nowhere To Go But Down From Here  [View article]
    I'll be very interested to see what Awilco chooses to do with the dividend for this one quarter where Wilphoenix is being fitted with the new state-of-the-art BP and undergoing the 5 year SPS. With the recent horrendous storms in the North Sea, it was a bit serendipitous that Awilco's rigs were out of the worst of it. If this low income quarter tanks the price further, it will create a very attractive re-entry point. Ironically, the past 4 quarters were the best-ever earnings-wise for Awilco.

    When the severe CAPEX cuts around the world for oil exploration and drilling inevitably leads to lower nono-opec production, it will take a long time to ramp it back up. The longer oil stays low, the longer supply could be below demand.

    I assume that's what S.A. is waiting for, so that high priced oil will be sustainable for a good while. Otherwise, their very costly gambit will have been for naught.
    Jan 7, 2016. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Forum  [View instapost]
    Sanofi's 'best efforts' with another very efficacious drug where there are conflicts of interest were extremely ineffective. Afrezza appears to have been sandbagged during the recently terminated partnership with MNKD to the benefit of more profitable 100% Sanofi-owned insulins. There was, as most of you know, a change of CEO for Sanofi after the MNKD partnership was signed. Greed seems to trump all at SNY, to the detriment of patients and investors.
    Jan 7, 2016. 12:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Follow The Insiders In This Biotech, The Best Gains In The Market May Await  [View article]

    is a good continuing discussion of TNXP news.
    Dec 7, 2015. 04:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: Nowhere To Go But Down From Here  [View article]
    Jon Oliver Bryce is keeping the WilHunter 'hot-stacked' at considerable cost, both to maintain the entire crew, who have proved extraordinarily competent in tackling a massive decommissioning job and completing the entire programme some 6 months ahead of the nominal schedule (there were also options for extending the time if needed). Most decommissioning jobs have been priced 1 or two wells at a time and this job for Hess proved that Economies of Scale can be achieved with the right crew and a large programme wells by the dozen.

    The fact that Bryce is maintaining the full crew as opposed to warm stacking indicates that, in his studied opinion, interest is high enough that he feels he cannot afford not to be ready when the next tender opportunity comes. And he is ensuring that WilHunter is the most attractive rig in every way (within its depth limit) in the UK North Sea for hire. If the job is a decommissioning, they would clearly be the best choice for mid-water work.

    The current price has the current bleak market conditions baked in. When/if the WilHunter is contracted, Awilco's situation will suddenly be enormously better.

    To the Author, please listen to the entire conference call as well as the Q&A session. It's a very informative hour of listening. It's available at http://bit.ly/15w5wfh . Let us know your thoughts afterwards.
    Nov 20, 2015. 05:11 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Archived GCVRZ Forum  [View instapost]
    To post re GCVRZ:
    Go back to the top of this forum and click the link there (on the word "here")

    ======== text to look for at top========
    Archived GCVRZ Forum 1,011 comments
    Apr 30, 2014 2:48 PM
    Now that this forum has reached 1,000 comments, readers have noticed that it has become slow and ponderous to open (especially on mobile devices). So, if you would like to comment, please do so *here* instead.
    Nov 12, 2015. 09:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Pediatric Endocrinologist's View Of MannKind's Afrezza  [View article]
    The story, featuring an interview with Sam Finta, was nicely done. Well worth watching.
    Nov 4, 2015. 04:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ZIOP: Breakout Imminent!  [View instapost]
    He's using the same thumbnail photo as his portrait and humming the well-known growacet tune.
    Oct 28, 2015. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Archived GCVRZ Forum  [View instapost]
    Genzyme is not calling its newest MS drug a 'cure', but it looks like one in most patients

    Oct 8, 2015, 7:06am EDT

    Don Seiffert
    BioFlash Editor
    Boston Business Journal

    Genzyme did not use the word “cure” in describing the results of the longest-duration study yet of its multiple sclerosis treatment, called Lemtrada, in a statement early this morning. But the results suggest that after two rounds of treatment, one year apart, most patients in two late-stage studies still experienced significant improvements in their symptoms five years later.

    Nearly a year after it was approved in the U.S., Cambridge-based Genzyme Corp., a subsidiary of French drug giant Sanofi (NYSE: SNY), plans to present the five-year data from an extension of two Phase 3 trials at a European conference on Friday.

    However, the company announced big-picture study results early this morning of the drug, which is unique in that it is not a continuous treatment like practically all other medicines for the neurodegenerative disease, including the once-a-day pill Tecfidera, the top-selling drug by Genzyme’s Cambridge rival, Biogen (Nasdaq: BIIB). Rather, Lemtrada is administered via infusion for five days initially, then a year later for an additional three days.

    The two late-stage trials which the company used for approval enrolled a total of 1,400 patients, and 90 percent of them were included in the five-year extension. According to today’s announcement, 68 percent of the patients in the smaller of those two trials (CARE-MS I), and 60 percent in the larger one (CARE-MS II), did not need additional additional treatment four years after the second round. Despite that, patients saw:

    * Virtually the same or lower annualized relapse rates as seen in previously-released data that tracked patients through three years. The rate was 0.18 for patients in CARE-MS I and 0.27 for those in CARE-MS II;

    * No worsening of disability progression in 76 percent to 80 percent of patients, and improvement in disability in 33 percent to 43 percent of patients who had some disability before the trial began;

    * A greater slowing of brain atrophy (as measured by MRI studies) than seen during the initial two years of the study; and
    The same or lower frequency of side effects as seen in the first couple years of the study. The most common side effects were in the thyroid, but seemed the rate of those effects declined in most patients after the third year.

    Sanofi has not disclosed revenue for Lemtrada since its launch a year ago in the U.S., which came months after it was approved in various other countries around the world. The drug is intended for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, which is the initial diagnosis received by 85 percent of patients with the disease, according to the MS Society.

    Oct 8, 2015. 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Archived GCVRZ Forum  [View instapost]
    To be clear, unlike Milestone #1, Milestones# 2, 3 and 4 *are* based on rolling 4-quarter windows.
    Sep 15, 2015. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Archived GCVRZ Forum  [View instapost]
    To meet Milestone #2 (bumped to $4 per CVR payout because of the missed FDA approval deadline), Lemtrada needs ~45-47% Q/Q revenue growth for the next 5 quarters.

    That would get Sanofi to 1B USD for the 4 quarters prior to the 3-year anniversary and prevent redemption at the then prevailing share price--which is likely to be well below the triggering 50c level IF we were not seeing the requisite revenue growth to get to $1B per annum by then (based on latest 4 Qs Revenue).

    On the plus side, if Lemtrada meets that sales target for Q3 2016, then it will take NO additional ramp-up to easily meet the 1.8B USD 4 rolling quarters by Q2 2017.

    The 3 year Anniversary is the difficult "milestone" that must be met to prevent sudden-death of the CVR at a low price. If sales are not close to being on track to reach milestone #2, it will be a very low price. OTOH, if it looks highly likely, logic would dictate the price would be much higher than 50c. If, a year from now, (with the price near 50c) there still seems to be a reasonable chance it might fail to meet Milestone #2, the risk of the redemption could depress the 45-day VWAP (volume weighted average price), and actually be *the* reason that the CVR is able to be taken out by Sanofi.

    Is Sanofi allowed to sell CVRs (that it has has previously bought) on the open market? I'd think it would be illegal (but tempting) for Sanofi to depress the price if it were near the 50c actuation trigger as the 3-year anniversary approached and projections showed that Milestone #2 is not unlikely.
    Note: I used a composite 55% revenue rate for year-2 patients (2nd-year infusion patient retention 85% x 2nd infusion revenue 60%) as a placeholder. If someone knows a reimbursement ratio of first year to second year--other than 5 vs 3 days of infusion =60%) please chime in! Even 80% requires 44% q/q to meet the 3-year anniversary revenue rate.
    As VJRau summarized in his recent Jul 30 post in this forum:

    "Sanofi can only redeem the CVRs if :

    a) 3 years have passed since Lemtrada's launch (which was November 2013)
    b) VWAP over the past 45 trading days is less than $0.50
    c) Lemtrada sales are less than $1 Billion in the previous 4 quarters.

    If Sanofi sends notice of redemption, your CVRs will be redeemed (regardless of whether you want them to or not) at the VWAP price over the last 45 trading days."
    Sep 15, 2015. 05:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Archived GCVRZ Forum  [View instapost]
    No easy way to see the Lemtrada presentations as a list, so I manually took all the data and massaged.

    75 Speakers (a few have 2 or 3 speakers - I counted as a team)
    37 States
    152 Cities
    181 Presentations
    Last date: December 16, 2015

    It appears to be a pretty extensive effort to get the word out across the US. It should bode well for next year's US sales. Probably too late to be a significant boon to Milestone #1, however, given the long lead times most willing patients have to endure.
    Sep 9, 2015. 12:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Archived GCVRZ Forum  [View instapost]
    That matches what septus reported earlier (straight from the Sanofi webpage Final_Product_Sales_St... for Lemtrada ) http://tinyurl.com/pcl...

    The difference is explained by subtracting Germany sales of $9.1MM, which for CVR purposes are moot.
    Jul 30, 2015. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Archived GCVRZ Forum  [View instapost]
    It's a only a week or so till the next sales data point. Volatility was up last quarter at this time as well. Someone could know something, and so any movement becomes exaggerated. We won't know if this price action is prescient until the sale data is released.
    Jul 23, 2015. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CorMedix: Strong Sell On Partner Failure, Misleading Data And Paid Stock Promotion, -91% Downside  [View article]
    In other, more recent, 10-Ks,

    Item 1.01. Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement.
    On March 24, 2015, we entered into an amendment to the Taurolidine Supply Agreement, dated December 7, 2009, as amended on December 6, 2014, between us and Navinta, LLC to extend the term of the Agreement to March 31, 2016 and to lower the price per kilogram of product that we purchase from Navinta under the Agreement. We also agreed to purchase a minimum amount of product from Navinta during 2015.

    BEDMINSTER, N.J., April 9, 2015 -- CorMedix Inc. (NYSE MKT: CRMD), a global biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing therapeutic products for the prevention and treatment of cardiac, renal and infectious diseases, today announced a significant new program aimed at enhancing long term market competitiveness by substantially reducing the cost of goods of Neutrolin® Catheter Lock Solution through a more efficient, custom synthesis of the active ingredient taurolidine.

    CorMedix and [RC]2 Pharma Connect LLC, have reached an agreement which will provide CorMedix with a cGMP API source able to produce needed volumes as CorMedix expands the sales of Neutrolin. [RC]2 assists companies like CorMedix in achieving more efficient ways of doing custom synthesis. [RC]2 has extensive scientific background and experience in process development and the manufacture of APIs (active pharmaceutical ingredients).

    “This efficiency initiative, when fully implemented, is expected to provide us with sufficient cGMP API to meet the needs for potential expanded uses, including U.S. market entry, which would significantly reduce the cost of taurolidine, by up to 80 percent, thereby increasing the pharmaceutical manufacturing margins,” said Randy Milby, Chief Executive Officer of CorMedix. “This is a significant opportunity as CorMedix intends to expand the market potential of Neutrolin® in new geographic markets, including the U.S., and in additional therapeutic indications. We believe this represents a multi-billion dollar global market opportunity. In addition, we have several other volume related initiatives which are expected to reduce the total cost of goods by an incremental 15 to 30 percent once fully implemented.”
    Jun 29, 2015. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CorMedix: Strong Sell On Partner Failure, Misleading Data And Paid Stock Promotion, -91% Downside  [View article]
    PS aka 28:

    Clearly a straw-man created to ask this disingenuous question, so that it could be answered so as to distract from the obvious weaknesses of the innuendo that substitutes for a comprehensive look at material facts. Just because you answered this softball question honestly doesn't mean it has ANY relevance to the value.

    This ruse is consistent with your shotgun approach with the emphasis on irrelevant issues in the over-long article as though just want a quick-panicked exit before the article can even be read to completion. Good job on that part of your plan to help poor retail investors.

    Unfortunate, that despite you assertion of $0 value, and after a great start with the steep drop of $1 in just 40 minutes after this article's publication, it's already rebounded 17% from the $3.62 bottom. Darn sheeple just don't always listen.

    Too bad you are just trying to help investors. It would have been a great way to help a hedge fund cover a great price. The short term drop could be all they would need to accomplish their goal. Maybe next time, you can pre-coordinate with a fund who is looking to cover a short position and maybe go long at the same time.

    You might even start a career being a freelance hedge-fund facilitator and still be proud of your great service educating helpless retail investors who read SA.
    Jun 29, 2015. 01:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment