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rmgillis

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  • MS Petition To White House For New Treatment Option [View instapost]
    Slow going so far on the getting the initial 150 signatures so that the petition can be publicly found. I was #39 on Thursday, and I solicited #48 just now. I'll see about a few more this week.

    Thanks, Chris.
    Aug 4 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind: Let It Dip A Bit More, Then Cover/Buy [View article]
    http://bit.ly/WRNKot

    They have changed the disclaimer recently but it still makes many references to fiction in its website. The link above is from the internet archive-- I picked a date a random from last year and the disclaimer excerpt I mentioned matched verbatim.

    Sierra is well known for just throwing darts and making sometime plausible statements trying to garner clicks. They are every bit as accurate as the average psychic who makes the new year's predictions in the Enquirer.

    In other words, there is no new information to be had reading Sierra Equity Review and they have nothing to lose by saying anything.
    Aug 1 03:42 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind: Let It Dip A Bit More, Then Cover/Buy [View article]
    OverSouled,

    The bulk of your our reply is well-reasoned but how did you decide to throw in a "last but not least" reference to Sierra Equity Review?

    As a hint as to the value of Sierra's predictions, read the first few sentences of their own disclaimer:

    "This website is for fictional and entertainment purposes only! Sierra World Equity Review and it’s publisher, do not accept payment to feature or recommend any stock. Nobody knows about our stock picks before they are published live on the website. ...."
    Jul 29 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting's Production Estimates Lead To $9.90 Fair Value For Trust II, 24% Downside [View article]
    MIchael, interesting take on WHZ. I appreciate the amount of work you put into it. I did see some things I tend to disagree with.

    One important number in your 3 scenarios seems unreasonable to me. The lease operating costs have not proven to be significantly correlated to oil prices. I've looked at the expenses at both of Whiting's trusts for lease operation as a % of total sales and though for the 1st two quarters of 2014, 38% is "correct", over the life of WHX and WHZ this percentage varies from just over 20% to well over 50%.


    The expenses vary with production and other factors, but the price of oil being high actually has a negative correlation. When oil was 20%+ higher back in 2008 WHX showed the lowest percentage lease operating costs-- in the low 20s. This skews both your 10% over and 10% under scenarios by a very substantial amount.

    You also use today's price for your 10% over scenario instead of having it be the nominal case. Using the industry long-range 'forecasts' helps your case a lot, but it's not everyone's opinion that oil can only go down in price. So it's a bit disingenuous to use current prices to be your unlikely best-case straw-man scenario.

    If, instead we make the assumption that lease operating costs are variable but are linked to things like number of wells and production and that development work is based on what it takes to work over wells etc. we may come to different conclusions. Let's stipulate for now that after the fact they will appear to be a fixed cost that you calculate an average for.

    If you start with this premise, and using WHX as a guide, we see that a 10% increase in the price of oil equates to approximately a 20% increase in distributions and that a 10% decrease leads to a 20% decrease in distributions (with constant production). In fact, a 20% change would result in the same 2:1 leverage in the distributions to +/- 40%.

    Meanwhile, your model tells a very differnt story--that WHZ would pay 10% less in the low scenario only 8% more in the high scenario than what it gets at $79/bbl. And these effects are mostly based on the production changes you've allowed. The price of oil actually has a leveraged affect on WHZ's payouts.

    You can import all the numbers from Whitingoil.com on both WHX and WHZ since inception and graph all the relevant production and sales figures fairly easily, as I did tonight. It's instructive, but the case for the 8.4 % annual decline does not become obvious-- in fact, that is why WHX is finishing 3 years early (since it doesn't have WHZ's modified termination clause). Surprisingly, the gas decline actually seems greater than the oil decline and with the BOE equivalency of 6:1 mandated [despite the actual 18:1-40:1 price ratios we have seen in the past 6-7 years], this can skew the apparent productiuon when you look at the BOE decline. That was significant for WHX with its fixed BOE target but unless WHZ falters badly it will not affect the ultimate payout of WHZ. Super low gas prices really cost WHX per BOE-- $12 of $2/MCF gas displacing a BBL of oil at $80 per BBL. There is no BOE limit on WHZ as long as it stays ahead of initial predictions, which WHX easily did.

    Nevertheless, WHZ is still a very speculative play, but is now a lot more interesting at $11.50 a share, apparently thanks to your well-written article. WHZ can be a chore at tax time despite not being a K-1 entity like SDR, SDT & PER. It has a it's own booklet explaining it all. You do get your 15% depletion and other considerations for your trouble.

    ~~~~~

    Obligatory pedantic note :) :

    By the way, and despite the informational footnote, the natural gas liquids are not a major reason that the oil price is much lower for WHZ and WHX. There are geographical price spreads that dwarf the small amount of lower-priced NGLs included in WHZ's liquid petroleum mix. The NGL total is just over 3% of the mix, so even at price of $0 they can't drop it more than about $3. Indeed NGL prices have ranged from mid $20's to higher than the price of oil at various times over the past few years.

    PS I currently have no Position in any royalty trust at present, but have had substantial holding WHZ, SDR PER and CHKR in the past. It became hard to consider them after investing heavily into AWLCF. Anyway, we already have substantial Overriding royalties in the Barnett Shale and elsewhere, courtesy of my late geologist father-in-law.
    Jun 4 03:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    Good point!
    Apr 17 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    What sumikuboanr is saying about the non-Major Markets is that we may be missing out on the second dosing of the earlier patients in the non-major markets.

    Since the Major Markets sales begin the first full quarter after the initial sale in that market, we won't be getting any second-dose sales in those markets counting toward Sales Milestone #1 ($400MM).

    On the other hand, non-major markets had the possibility of 4 quarters of sales, with a large percentage of those pre-sale period patients getting their second-year follow-up dose (albeit at somewhat lower dollar amount) thus losing a 4-quarter stream of new patients at full price and a built-in stream of the patients from the previous 4 quarters. Potentially, if adoption ramps up somewhat the second year this could almost double the revenue that counts toward Sales Milestone #1. (SM1)

    Of course, there could be a flood of patients early on who have been waiting for approval and the second year may have fewer new patients, or sales could pick up steam as word spreads among MS patients- many unknowns. This could be good for total sales as long as there is a steady stream of new Lemtrada patients the next year- enough to make up the 20% or so lower revenue for dose #2 and those who for whatever reason don't get dose #2.

    So, any patients starting in a non-major market from April 1 2014 to late March 2015 will count as about .8 of a new patient the next year, provided they do get that second dose about 1 year later. This is revenue denied to the 5 Major Markets.

    Example: Lets say, in the Grand Duchy of Fenwick, 100 patients receive Lemtrada before March 31, 2015 at $75000 per patient and 90 of them receive does number two within twelve months. (10 wait over 12 months or can't/won't take dose #2)

    If those 90 patients got dose#2 at $60,000 each and 61 new patients at $75000 each were treated with Lemtrada from April 1, 2015 to March 31, 2016, that would generate ~$10 million toward SM1.
    If, instead, patients had to wait until April 2015 before Lemtrada was available, and ~133 patients were treated during the next 4 quarters, this would also result in $10 Million toward SM1.

    Thus, if hypothetical pent-up demand in a non-major market doesn't exceed about 50% of these erstwhile second-year new patients, then it would be better for GCVRZ holders if the drug were available now in each non-major market. (based on 25% lower revenue and a 90% retention rate for dose#2)
    If however, second year revenues are less than half the first years revenue, a just-in-time start could be better.

    Since some early adopters may be delayed by their doctors the just-in-time scenario is probably not the best. There are also those who will become too ill after waiting an extra year.
    Apr 16 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Handle A Big Gain [View article]
    Awilco management has done exactly what they said they were planning to do, or better all the way back to the beginning of the company. I haven't find anything to rival it for enterprise value and yield per share.
    I don't mind how long the SP languishes with the expert management and the long term contracts bringing home 5% per quarter.

    Happily, I also bought some of the stock in question at $4 on 3/31.
    Apr 3 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gas Natural: Investigation And Insider-Selling Suggests Trouble Ahead [View article]
    Now Osborne is touting his pipeline conversion project in Maine on the same day he had to report that the PUCO order rehearing has been denied. Reminiscent of the tiny secondary offering covering management's simultaneous mass exodus of the stock.
    Feb 9 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10% Guaranteed Return* [View instapost]
    RRR, AWLCF is my #1 position with 25K shares and its still on sale at under $20/share. The fourth dividend will be announced pre-market (Oslo time) on Feb 24. It's about 2 months after the ex-div date that the brokerages stateside include the latest dividend in the yield. So it may be April before the stock screeners will see the 20-24% yield.

    Chris, please ignore the nitpicker, it sounds interesting and fun to me and many others. Enjoy yourself with this.
    Feb 7 05:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Is Ready For Substantial Earnings And Dividend Boost [View article]
    From Awilco Drilling's Investor relations chief: (via tankerat)

    We believe today's dip in the share price is due to a new tax proposal put forward by the HMRC (The British tax authorities) late last week. The proposal could potentially increase Awilco Drilling's effective tax rate at a group level. A consultation period for the proposal is scheduled for January 2014 and the final outcome is therefore not yet known.

    It is also worth noting that the proposal has been pushed through by the HMRC and has not necessarily been approved in principal by the Treasury. The Treasury has previously indicated that there would be no more "tax surprises" for the oil & gas sector, and that they would be more interested in ensuring the longer term benefits that can be reaped from a stable oil & gas sector rather than a short term hit.

    There is currently a strong pushback form the oil & gas industry on this proposal and several meetings with both the HMRC and the Treasury will take place to present the Industry's view on the proposal. Until the consultation period is over and we know more of its outcome, it is difficult to be more specific of any potential consequences.


    Kind regards,
    Cathrine Haavind
    Dec 12 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Is Ready For Substantial Earnings And Dividend Boost [View article]
    OnThursday a huge block of roughly 200 thousand shares was sold at what I imagine was a market order at The Oslo Bors of AWDR. Clearly a large holder took massive profits on their huge position. The US market wAs closed of course...

    I consider this a great buying opportunity today.
    Nov 29 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust I About To Drop By 50% [View article]
    I recently bought 200 contracts of 2.5 puts for DEC for a nickel then sold half for 10c today so whatever I can get for the other half is profit. I am also in $5 puts in Dec at 60c.

    After studying Whiting's nice spreadsheet on WHX results over the the life of the trust, this latest good quarter comes from the 11.1% better Oil/NGL avg price $89.94 vs $80.94, increased gas output (+5%) also with a slight increase in avg realized Gas prices -- $3.65 vs $3.74. There was also an extra day this quarter (92 days).

    288.3 MBOE of the cap of 9.11 MBOE have been sold. The trust gets 90% of that after expenses and taxes. The following spreadsheet shows where the per share money goes and you can see that based on the post hedging quarters' results that WHX averages under 50% of gross sales going into shareholder's pockets. Even with $104+ oil prices, the chances of over $3
    of payout before trust termination are low. $3 will be a very good
    overall payout going forward from here. By defintion, the more the production now, the less in the final payment. Discounting the
    the future value, the only reason WHX is over $2.5 is gamblers
    playing the greater fool theory.

    =========PER SHARE RESULTS=================
    22nd Dist 23rd Dist
    8/29/2013 11/29/2013 PER SHARE
    2Q13 3Q13

    0.01146 0.01150 Oil Volume Bbl
    0.00133 0.00134 NGL Volume Bbl
    0.01279 0.01284 Oil & NGL Volume BOE's
    0.04595 0.04774 Gas Volume MCF
    0.02045 0.02080 Total Volume BOE's
    0.00014 0.00014 BOE/d
    5% -1% % Change in BOE/d prior
    0.00050 0.00052 Mcf/d
    -2% 4% % Change in Mcf/d prior

    $0.992 $1.111 Sales - Oil
    $0.043 $0.000 Sales - NGL's
    $1.035 $1.155 Sales - Oil and NGL's
    $0.168 $0.179 Gas Sales
    $1.203 $1.333 Total Sales
    $0.510 $0.566 Lease Operating Cost
    $0.079 $0.092 Production Taxes
    $0.000 $0.000 Hedging Loss (Income)
    $0.589 $0.658 Total Costs

    $0.615 $0.592 Net Proceeds - 100%
    90% 90%
    $0.553 $0.000 Income from NPI
    -$0.016 -$0.010 Trust Expense Withholding
    -$0.003 -$0.005 Montana Tax Withholding
    $0.534 $0.592 Net Cash Avail Distribution
    1 1 Units Outstanding
    0.53 0.59 Distribution per Unit
    ======================...
    PER BOE results
    $58.83 $64.11 Gross proceeds per BOE
    $30.05 $28.46 Net Proceeds per BOE
    $27.04 $25.61 90% of net
    $26.09 $28.47 after trust expenses
    ======================...
    2Q13 3Q13
    $0.188 $0.205 per share per 100K BOE

    There are 1.49 gross mBOE's left to pay
    Using the past 8 quarters efficiency results,
    we could see the following TOTAL payouts over
    the life of the trust.

    Using that quarter's financial efficiencies per share

    Total distribution possible at each quarter's rate:
    (removing hedges)
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    $3.06 $3.05 $2.71 $2.13 $2.49 $2.47 $2.80 $3.06


    Quarterly lease Operating costs per share
    (by far, the largest single line item expense)
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    .49 .54 .53 .57 .54 .52 .51 .57

    Distribution as % of gross sales
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    37% 38% 39% 48% 44% 53% 49% 49%
    Nov 14 07:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Trust I: New Strategy For Profits - An Update [View article]
    I bought 200 contracts of 2.5 puts for DEC for a nickel sold half for 10c today so whatever I can get for the other half is profit. I am also in $5 puts in Dec at 60c.

    After studying Whiting's nice spreadsheet on WHX results over the the life of the trust, this latest good quarter comes from the 11.1% better Oil/NGL avg price $89.94 vs $80.94, increased gas output (+5%) also with a slight increase in avg realized Gas prices -- $3.65 vs $3.74. There was also an extra day this quarter (92 days).

    288.3 MBOE of the cap of 9.11 MBOE have been sold. The trust gets 90% of that after expenses and taxes. The following spreadsheet shows where the per share money goes and you can see that based on the post hedging quarters' results that WHX averages under 50% of gross sales going into shareholder's pockets. Even with $104+ oil prices, the chances of over $3
    of payout before trust termination are low. $3 will be a very good
    overall payout going forward from here. By defintion, the more the production now, the less in the final payment. Discounting the
    the future value, the only reason WHX is over $2.5 is gamblers
    playing the greater fool theory.

    =========PER SHARE RESULTS=================
    22nd Dist 23rd Dist
    8/29/2013 11/29/2013 PER SHARE
    2Q13 3Q13

    0.01146 0.01150 Oil Volume Bbl
    0.00133 0.00134 NGL Volume Bbl
    0.01279 0.01284 Oil & NGL Volume BOE's
    0.04595 0.04774 Gas Volume MCF
    0.02045 0.02080 Total Volume BOE's
    0.00014 0.00014 BOE/d
    5% -1% % Change in BOE/d prior
    0.00050 0.00052 Mcf/d
    -2% 4% % Change in Mcf/d prior

    $0.992 $1.111 Sales - Oil
    $0.043 $0.000 Sales - NGL's
    $1.035 $1.155 Sales - Oil and NGL's
    $0.168 $0.179 Gas Sales
    $1.203 $1.333 Total Sales
    $0.510 $0.566 Lease Operating Cost
    $0.079 $0.092 Production Taxes
    $0.000 $0.000 Hedging Loss (Income)
    $0.589 $0.658 Total Costs

    $0.615 $0.592 Net Proceeds - 100%
    90% 90%
    $0.553 $0.000 Income from NPI
    -$0.016 -$0.010 Trust Expense Withholding
    -$0.003 -$0.005 Montana Tax Withholding
    $0.534 $0.592 Net Cash Avail Distribution
    1 1 Units Outstanding
    0.53 0.59 Distribution per Unit
    ======================...
    PER BOE results
    $58.83 $64.11 Gross proceeds per BOE
    $30.05 $28.46 Net Proceeds per BOE
    $27.04 $25.61 90% of net
    $26.09 $28.47 after trust expenses
    ======================...
    2Q13 3Q13
    $0.188 $0.205 per share per 100K BOE

    There are 1.49 gross mBOE's left to pay
    Using the past 8 quarters efficiency results,
    we could see the following TOTAL payouts over
    the life of the trust.

    Using that quarter's financial efficiencies per share

    Total distribution possible at each quarter's rate:
    (removing hedges)
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    $3.06 $3.05 $2.71 $2.13 $2.49 $2.47 $2.80 $3.06


    Quarterly lease Operating costs per share
    (by far, the largest single line item expense)
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    .49 .54 .53 .57 .54 .52 .51 .57

    Distribution as % of gross sales
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    37% 38% 39% 48% 44% 53% 49% 49%
    Nov 14 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Trust I: New Strategy For Profits [View article]
    I bought 200 contracts of 2.5 puts for DEC for a nickel sold half for 10c today so whatever I can get for the other half is profit. I am also in $5 puts in Dec at 60c.

    After studying Whiting's nice spreadsheet on WHX results over the the life of the trust, this latest good quarter comes from the 11.1% better Oil/NGL avg price $89.94 vs $80.94, increased gas output (+5%) also with a slight increase in avg realized Gas prices -- $3.65 vs $3.74. There was also an extra day this quarter (92 days).

    288.3 MBOE of the cap of 9.11 MBOE have been sold. The trust gets 90% of that after expenses and taxes. The following spreadsheet shows where the per share money goes and you can see that based on the post hedging quarters' results that WHX averages under 50% of gross sales going into shareholder's pockets. Even with $104+ oil prices, the chances of over $3
    of payout before trust termination are low. $3 will be a very good
    overall payout going forward from here. By defintion, the more the production now, the less in the final payment. Discounting the
    the future value, the only reason WHX is over $2.5 is gamblers
    playing the greater fool theory.

    =========PER SHARE RESULTS=================
    22nd Dist 23rd Dist
    8/29/2013 11/29/2013 PER SHARE
    2Q13 3Q13

    0.01146 0.01150 Oil Volume Bbl
    0.00133 0.00134 NGL Volume Bbl
    0.01279 0.01284 Oil & NGL Volume BOE's
    0.04595 0.04774 Gas Volume MCF
    0.02045 0.02080 Total Volume BOE's
    0.00014 0.00014 BOE/d
    5% -1% % Change in BOE/d prior
    0.00050 0.00052 Mcf/d
    -2% 4% % Change in Mcf/d prior

    $0.992 $1.111 Sales - Oil
    $0.043 $0.000 Sales - NGL's
    $1.035 $1.155 Sales - Oil and NGL's
    $0.168 $0.179 Gas Sales
    $1.203 $1.333 Total Sales
    $0.510 $0.566 Lease Operating Cost
    $0.079 $0.092 Production Taxes
    $0.000 $0.000 Hedging Loss (Income)
    $0.589 $0.658 Total Costs

    $0.615 $0.592 Net Proceeds - 100%
    90% 90%
    $0.553 $0.000 Income from NPI
    -$0.016 -$0.010 Trust Expense Withholding
    -$0.003 -$0.005 Montana Tax Withholding
    $0.534 $0.592 Net Cash Avail Distribution
    1 1 Units Outstanding
    0.53 0.59 Distribution per Unit
    ======================...
    PER BOE results
    $58.83 $64.11 Gross proceeds per BOE
    $30.05 $28.46 Net Proceeds per BOE
    $27.04 $25.61 90% of net
    $26.09 $28.47 after trust expenses
    ======================...
    2Q13 3Q13
    $0.188 $0.205 per share per 100K BOE

    There are 1.49 gross mBOE's left to pay
    Using the past 8 quarters efficiency results,
    we could see the following TOTAL payouts over
    the life of the trust.

    Using that quarter's financial efficiencies per share

    Total distribution possible at each quarter's rate:
    (removing hedges)
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    $3.06 $3.05 $2.71 $2.13 $2.49 $2.47 $2.80 $3.06


    Quarterly lease Operating costs per share
    (by far, the largest single line item expense)
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    .49 .54 .53 .57 .54 .52 .51 .57

    Distribution as % of gross sales
    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
    37% 38% 39% 48% 44% 53% 49% 49%
    Nov 14 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ctrip - Vast Upside, But Shallow Moat  [View instapost]
    As of now at $57, it looks like you hit a CTRIP-LE.
    Oct 29 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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