Mark Gomes's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/84364/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1427961/comments?source=feed#comment-18739201 18739201
I agree with your comments 100%...but that doesn't mean MSFT won't go for it...and that is the key point. ;^)

Cheers,

Mark G.]]> Sun, 12 May 2013 15:01:18 -0400
I agree with your comments 100%...but that doesn't mean MSFT won't go for it...and that is the key point. ;^)

Cheers,

Mark G.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1427961/comments?source=feed#comment-18739131 18739131
I believe most institutions are taking a wait and see attitude. The Z-10 is losing steam and the Q-10 is unproven. Most institutions don't have access to the pre-release demand data that has given us confidence in BBRY prospects for the remainder of 2013.

Kindest Regards,

Mark G.]]> Sun, 12 May 2013 14:56:30 -0400
I believe most institutions are taking a wait and see attitude. The Z-10 is losing steam and the Q-10 is unproven. Most institutions don't have access to the pre-release demand data that has given us confidence in BBRY prospects for the remainder of 2013.

Kindest Regards,

Mark G.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1404051/comments?source=feed#comment-18685281 18685281
Also, stay tuned (by hitting the "Follow" button). Our newest Stocks to Triple will be coming within the next few weeks. We're finishing our research on several candidates and I feel that at least one of them is going to make it through our rigorous gauntlet.

Cheers,

Mark G.]]> Fri, 10 May 2013 14:45:49 -0400
Also, stay tuned (by hitting the "Follow" button). Our newest Stocks to Triple will be coming within the next few weeks. We're finishing our research on several candidates and I feel that at least one of them is going to make it through our rigorous gauntlet.

Cheers,

Mark G.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1404051/comments?source=feed#comment-18683161 18683161 Fri, 10 May 2013 13:48:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1404051/comments?source=feed#comment-18622011 18622011 Thu, 09 May 2013 10:15:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/84364-mark-gomes/1836121-himx-q1-earnings-call-quotes-notes?source=feed#comment-18565511 18565511
Looking forward to the next leg up, but don't know if that will come soon or later.]]> Wed, 08 May 2013 01:09:31 -0400
Looking forward to the next leg up, but don't know if that will come soon or later.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/84364-mark-gomes/1835971-perfumania-s-10-k-reinforces-our-short-thesis?source=feed#comment-18564521 18564521
We believe the shares could fall as much as 33%, with minimal (say, 10%) upside risk.]]> Wed, 08 May 2013 00:06:06 -0400
We believe the shares could fall as much as 33%, with minimal (say, 10%) upside risk.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1145561/comments?source=feed#comment-18549101 18549101
Net-net, there's about $1-2 of downside from here and $5-6 of upside. Of course, we need to assess our thoughts on the odds of each coming true. Between the positives (Big Data trends and new partnership contracts) and negatives (execution issues and likely weak Q2), we're probably looking at 50/50 odds of each scenario.

Bottom Line: This is why we shifted the stock into our Wait Time category. Wait Time stocks are notorious for causing pain. The opportunity is still intact, but the risk/reward has become less favorable since the time when we initiated coverage. Proceed with caution until we upgrade them.]]> Tue, 07 May 2013 15:16:42 -0400
Net-net, there's about $1-2 of downside from here and $5-6 of upside. Of course, we need to assess our thoughts on the odds of each coming true. Between the positives (Big Data trends and new partnership contracts) and negatives (execution issues and likely weak Q2), we're probably looking at 50/50 odds of each scenario.

Bottom Line: This is why we shifted the stock into our Wait Time category. Wait Time stocks are notorious for causing pain. The opportunity is still intact, but the risk/reward has become less favorable since the time when we initiated coverage. Proceed with caution until we upgrade them.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1404051/comments?source=feed#comment-18541251 18541251 Tue, 07 May 2013 12:42:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1404051/comments?source=feed#comment-18541061 18541061
I'm happy to discuss the losses if you'd like. I do have a tendency to simply admit defeat and move on. To be fair, I did lead the article off with my failings. 20% of my picks are AWFUL...and I see no reason to expect that to change.

I will continue to make my share of terrible picks. However, this is part of the design. I seek high reward relative to risk. When seeking triples (200% gains), one can easily justify the risk of losing 100%. That has been my method and you can see that it has worked quite well, especially this year (a direct result of retiring from Track & Field training to focus on deeper analyses). Hope that helps.

Your very human stock analyst,

Mark G.]]> Tue, 07 May 2013 12:40:47 -0400
I'm happy to discuss the losses if you'd like. I do have a tendency to simply admit defeat and move on. To be fair, I did lead the article off with my failings. 20% of my picks are AWFUL...and I see no reason to expect that to change.

I will continue to make my share of terrible picks. However, this is part of the design. I seek high reward relative to risk. When seeking triples (200% gains), one can easily justify the risk of losing 100%. That has been my method and you can see that it has worked quite well, especially this year (a direct result of retiring from Track & Field training to focus on deeper analyses). Hope that helps.

Your very human stock analyst,

Mark G.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1404051/comments?source=feed#comment-18540751 18540751
The failing of P/E is evident with fast growing companies. For these companies, earnings are a fast moving target...

...and if you've ever been taught how to shoot a moving target, you know that you have to aim for where they will be, not where they are.]]> Tue, 07 May 2013 12:34:13 -0400
The failing of P/E is evident with fast growing companies. For these companies, earnings are a fast moving target...

...and if you've ever been taught how to shoot a moving target, you know that you have to aim for where they will be, not where they are.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1145561/comments?source=feed#comment-18540331 18540331
At that point, if a buyout took place, there would be a premium, probably taking the shares to 4x R&D or $4.60. So, as long as the company would be willing to admit failure and sell itself (as opposed to bull-headedly squirming in quicksand), these levels seem fairly safe.

Of course, the upside is still a triple from my initiation price...or about $10. For that, they need to start executing. If they can reach the high end of guidance ($30M in revenue and 18% operating margins) and grow at the market rate of 30%, the stock will be able to justify that target price.]]> Tue, 07 May 2013 12:29:49 -0400
At that point, if a buyout took place, there would be a premium, probably taking the shares to 4x R&D or $4.60. So, as long as the company would be willing to admit failure and sell itself (as opposed to bull-headedly squirming in quicksand), these levels seem fairly safe.

Of course, the upside is still a triple from my initiation price...or about $10. For that, they need to start executing. If they can reach the high end of guidance ($30M in revenue and 18% operating margins) and grow at the market rate of 30%, the stock will be able to justify that target price.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1406141/comments?source=feed#comment-18522041 18522041
Well said. I agree, which is why I still own the stock. It's just important to keep things in perspective in terms of timing, potential, risk, etc. At $3, HIMX was a no brainer. Now, it carries more risk, but still represents a great opportunity for outsized gains in the foreseeable future.

Many thanks for your contributions,

Mark G.]]> Mon, 06 May 2013 23:57:53 -0400
Well said. I agree, which is why I still own the stock. It's just important to keep things in perspective in terms of timing, potential, risk, etc. At $3, HIMX was a no brainer. Now, it carries more risk, but still represents a great opportunity for outsized gains in the foreseeable future.

Many thanks for your contributions,

Mark G.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1406141/comments?source=feed#comment-18512751 18512751 Mon, 06 May 2013 18:47:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1404051/comments?source=feed#comment-18473721 18473721 http://seekingalpha.co...

Enjoy!]]> Sun, 05 May 2013 20:33:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.co...

Enjoy!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1403371/comments?source=feed#comment-18473631 18473631 http://bit.ly/10AQNL8]]> Sun, 05 May 2013 20:31:31 -0400 http://bit.ly/10AQNL8]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1403371/comments?source=feed#comment-18472851 18472851 Sun, 05 May 2013 19:39:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1403371/comments?source=feed#comment-18472821 18472821
Also, we cover many stocks that we don't / won't discuss on SeekingAlpha. Quarterly channel checks, etc...]]> Sun, 05 May 2013 19:37:21 -0400
Also, we cover many stocks that we don't / won't discuss on SeekingAlpha. Quarterly channel checks, etc...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1379161/comments?source=feed#comment-18462441 18462441 Sun, 05 May 2013 12:00:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1145561/comments?source=feed#comment-18462371 18462371
As a 25-year investor, I've learned to never expect a situation to come true. There are many ways ATTU can lose and the real world is just as capable of making bad things happen as good. All we can do is gather as much research as possible and assess the risk/reward on an ongoing basis.

With ATTU, the risk has seemingly increased, while the potential reward has decreased (because the stock has doubled from my entry point...and nearly tripled at its peak). This is why I moved ATTU into the Wait Time category. I still have a position, but am proceeding with great caution. Ditto for HIMX, which has almost doubled in a short span. Accordingly, I have much larger positions in stocks like QADA, QADB, BBRY, and FB at present.

It's important to take profits that come very/too quickly and move into stocks where the profits have yet to come. An investor has to be nimble and emotionless to win!

New picks will be coming in a few weeks, so stay tuned...

Kindest Regards,

Mark G.]]> Sun, 05 May 2013 11:56:30 -0400
As a 25-year investor, I've learned to never expect a situation to come true. There are many ways ATTU can lose and the real world is just as capable of making bad things happen as good. All we can do is gather as much research as possible and assess the risk/reward on an ongoing basis.

With ATTU, the risk has seemingly increased, while the potential reward has decreased (because the stock has doubled from my entry point...and nearly tripled at its peak). This is why I moved ATTU into the Wait Time category. I still have a position, but am proceeding with great caution. Ditto for HIMX, which has almost doubled in a short span. Accordingly, I have much larger positions in stocks like QADA, QADB, BBRY, and FB at present.

It's important to take profits that come very/too quickly and move into stocks where the profits have yet to come. An investor has to be nimble and emotionless to win!

New picks will be coming in a few weeks, so stay tuned...

Kindest Regards,

Mark G.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1403371/comments?source=feed#comment-18459831 18459831
If the stock breaks out, as it appears to be doing right now (also see how GME turned out), agnostic day traders will act by focusing on the long side of the trade (ala one of our other picks, HIMX).

At that point, the liquidity will only be there for longs who wish to take profits. This is how/why many squeezes have been so violent of late. NFLX is another that comes to mind, but neither NFLX, nor GME had as much pent-up power s BBRY -- those stocks take 12 and 40 days for their floats to turn over, respectively.

Seriously, I don't recall seeing a stock with such a high combination of short interest and share-turnover. I'm not the type to tell shot-sellers that they're in a position to get their "faces ripped off", but I would strongly suggest taking the aforementioned facts into consideration.

Kindest Regards,

Mark G.]]> Sun, 05 May 2013 10:33:08 -0400
If the stock breaks out, as it appears to be doing right now (also see how GME turned out), agnostic day traders will act by focusing on the long side of the trade (ala one of our other picks, HIMX).

At that point, the liquidity will only be there for longs who wish to take profits. This is how/why many squeezes have been so violent of late. NFLX is another that comes to mind, but neither NFLX, nor GME had as much pent-up power s BBRY -- those stocks take 12 and 40 days for their floats to turn over, respectively.

Seriously, I don't recall seeing a stock with such a high combination of short interest and share-turnover. I'm not the type to tell shot-sellers that they're in a position to get their "faces ripped off", but I would strongly suggest taking the aforementioned facts into consideration.

Kindest Regards,

Mark G.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1403371/comments?source=feed#comment-18459541 18459541
BTW, I've read your work. Kudos on your innovative approach to primary research. It's been additive to our data points and short thesis.

Cheers,

Mark G.]]> Sun, 05 May 2013 10:20:54 -0400
BTW, I've read your work. Kudos on your innovative approach to primary research. It's been additive to our data points and short thesis.

Cheers,

Mark G.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1145561/comments?source=feed#comment-18441071 18441071
I would give mgt the benefit of the doubt if not for the credibility lost via the Q1 results. Thus, we must proceed with caution (which is why I changed their classification to "Wait Time" before the earnings were announced). They have more visibility into their pipeline than we do, so that's a positive. Also, they weren't overtly misleading on the last call. Dodgy, yes..but misleading, no.

Bottom line: I think mgt's intent is to be honest, so I believe that they see enough demand to do $27-30M. The concern is whether they can execute against that demand. In Q1, the answer was a resounding no.

The Fortune 50 tech companies that would fit with ATTU are IBM, MSFT, and HP. Take your pick...

Cheers,

Mark G.]]> Sat, 04 May 2013 11:25:55 -0400
I would give mgt the benefit of the doubt if not for the credibility lost via the Q1 results. Thus, we must proceed with caution (which is why I changed their classification to "Wait Time" before the earnings were announced). They have more visibility into their pipeline than we do, so that's a positive. Also, they weren't overtly misleading on the last call. Dodgy, yes..but misleading, no.

Bottom line: I think mgt's intent is to be honest, so I believe that they see enough demand to do $27-30M. The concern is whether they can execute against that demand. In Q1, the answer was a resounding no.

The Fortune 50 tech companies that would fit with ATTU are IBM, MSFT, and HP. Take your pick...

Cheers,

Mark G.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1379161/comments?source=feed#comment-18440911 18440911
1) The 76M BB customers start to upgrade at an industry-average rate of 33-50% annualized. Given the pent-up demand within the base for new product, I think we should expect something in the 40-50% range.

2) For the stock to go up, buyers just need to outnumber sellers (including short sellers). The change in short interest has NO bearing on the direction of the stock without taking the change in long interest into account. Given constant supply (no change in public float) changes in price are very simply determined by the balance of buying vs. selling.]]> Sat, 04 May 2013 11:19:43 -0400
1) The 76M BB customers start to upgrade at an industry-average rate of 33-50% annualized. Given the pent-up demand within the base for new product, I think we should expect something in the 40-50% range.

2) For the stock to go up, buyers just need to outnumber sellers (including short sellers). The change in short interest has NO bearing on the direction of the stock without taking the change in long interest into account. Given constant supply (no change in public float) changes in price are very simply determined by the balance of buying vs. selling.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1379161/comments?source=feed#comment-18438031 18438031 http://bit.ly/1156WzU]]> Sat, 04 May 2013 09:24:46 -0400 http://bit.ly/1156WzU]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1145561/comments?source=feed#comment-18413171 18413171 Fri, 03 May 2013 13:58:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1379161/comments?source=feed#comment-18408141 18408141
Your points are spot-on...and exactly why I believe the shares will double. Let's address them one by one.

Point #1

"Blackberry will need to show at least 1 or 2 quarters of actual sales growth AND profit."

I couldn't agree with you more!

The problem if you are short is that your statement is about to become a reality. According to our proprietary research, the Z-10 outlook has increased, not decreased, since Feb. But the real story is the Q-10. If you were still using the BB, the question I would ask is "Why?".

We asked that question, directly and indirectly by conducting and consolidating several surveys. We found the answer to be threefold (in no particular order):

1) My employer mandates it.

2) It's a business-focused phone, unlike most of the phones out there.

3) I LOVE the keyboard.

Looking at 1 & 2, employer mandates exist because Blackberries are business-oriented phones. Also, the company is a market leader in terms of security and management domain expertise. BBRY's software platform, (BES) will only strengthen that lead. As for #3, the keyboard elicited the most powerful response according to our research. Indeed, an enormous proportion of BBRY's 76M customers have been dying for a modern OS (like IOS, Android, or Windows 8...or BB10), but want it combined with a tactile keyboard.

The answer to that desire is the Q-10. the research (and initial sales) show that the Q-10 is set to be adopted by much of BB's small base of customers. That's right...small. 76M is nothing compared to the 1B+ smart phone users (and billions of feature phone users) worldwide. In other words, BBRY is a niche vendor.

A loser. A has been. Tertiary.

However, another word for BBRY is cash cow...and cash cows have great value (assuming they actually produce cash). In this case, BBRY regained profitability before launching its new line-up, despite the heavy investment required to develop and market the new line-up. That demonstrates BBRY's cash cow earnings power. The company currently has a grip on 76M customers. If only a third of them buys a new phone, we calulate that BBRY will blow out Wall Street's revenue and EPS estimates for fiscal 2014.

As an FYI, people tend to buy a new phone every 2-3 years, so 33-50% of any installed base is typically buying a new phone in any given year. This hasn't been the case for BBRY lately, because customers have been waiting for new products with a modern operating system.

And here they are. The BB10 OS launched with the Z-10 for the May quarter. The Q-10 will drive the August quarter, and at least 1 or 2 new models will power the November quarter. Then, the entire line-up will come together for the Febrary (holiday) quarter. After that, things could either keep rolling or fall apart...but do you really think the shorts are going to stick around through 4 massive quarters to find out?

You said it yourself..."Blackberry will need to show at least 1 or 2 quarters of actual sales growth AND profit". Our research says that 4 are on the way.

Point #2 -- With so many shares short, the shorts are likely loaded to the gills. If that assumption is correct, then their control over the stock can only have an upward bias. An end the downward pressure of increasing short interest = an end to the stock being held down. Meanwhile, four quarters of beat-n-raise performance will squeeze the shorts, which will put them in complete control...of sending the stock much higher.

Perhaps higher than it deserves to go. After all, that is the power of control, no?

Kindest Regards,

Mark G.]]> Fri, 03 May 2013 12:15:54 -0400
Your points are spot-on...and exactly why I believe the shares will double. Let's address them one by one.

Point #1

"Blackberry will need to show at least 1 or 2 quarters of actual sales growth AND profit."

I couldn't agree with you more!

The problem if you are short is that your statement is about to become a reality. According to our proprietary research, the Z-10 outlook has increased, not decreased, since Feb. But the real story is the Q-10. If you were still using the BB, the question I would ask is "Why?".

We asked that question, directly and indirectly by conducting and consolidating several surveys. We found the answer to be threefold (in no particular order):

1) My employer mandates it.

2) It's a business-focused phone, unlike most of the phones out there.

3) I LOVE the keyboard.

Looking at 1 & 2, employer mandates exist because Blackberries are business-oriented phones. Also, the company is a market leader in terms of security and management domain expertise. BBRY's software platform, (BES) will only strengthen that lead. As for #3, the keyboard elicited the most powerful response according to our research. Indeed, an enormous proportion of BBRY's 76M customers have been dying for a modern OS (like IOS, Android, or Windows 8...or BB10), but want it combined with a tactile keyboard.

The answer to that desire is the Q-10. the research (and initial sales) show that the Q-10 is set to be adopted by much of BB's small base of customers. That's right...small. 76M is nothing compared to the 1B+ smart phone users (and billions of feature phone users) worldwide. In other words, BBRY is a niche vendor.

A loser. A has been. Tertiary.

However, another word for BBRY is cash cow...and cash cows have great value (assuming they actually produce cash). In this case, BBRY regained profitability before launching its new line-up, despite the heavy investment required to develop and market the new line-up. That demonstrates BBRY's cash cow earnings power. The company currently has a grip on 76M customers. If only a third of them buys a new phone, we calulate that BBRY will blow out Wall Street's revenue and EPS estimates for fiscal 2014.

As an FYI, people tend to buy a new phone every 2-3 years, so 33-50% of any installed base is typically buying a new phone in any given year. This hasn't been the case for BBRY lately, because customers have been waiting for new products with a modern operating system.

And here they are. The BB10 OS launched with the Z-10 for the May quarter. The Q-10 will drive the August quarter, and at least 1 or 2 new models will power the November quarter. Then, the entire line-up will come together for the Febrary (holiday) quarter. After that, things could either keep rolling or fall apart...but do you really think the shorts are going to stick around through 4 massive quarters to find out?

You said it yourself..."Blackberry will need to show at least 1 or 2 quarters of actual sales growth AND profit". Our research says that 4 are on the way.

Point #2 -- With so many shares short, the shorts are likely loaded to the gills. If that assumption is correct, then their control over the stock can only have an upward bias. An end the downward pressure of increasing short interest = an end to the stock being held down. Meanwhile, four quarters of beat-n-raise performance will squeeze the shorts, which will put them in complete control...of sending the stock much higher.

Perhaps higher than it deserves to go. After all, that is the power of control, no?

Kindest Regards,

Mark G.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1145561/comments?source=feed#comment-18385821 18385821 http://bit.ly/11G2Wkr

Cheers]]> Thu, 02 May 2013 21:49:43 -0400 http://bit.ly/11G2Wkr

Cheers]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1379161/comments?source=feed#comment-18231891 18231891
That alone is enough to overcome most any bearish thesis.]]> Mon, 29 Apr 2013 13:46:46 -0400
That alone is enough to overcome most any bearish thesis.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1379161/comments?source=feed#comment-18231681 18231681 Mon, 29 Apr 2013 13:44:16 -0400