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KilgoreTrout

KilgoreTrout
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  • The State Of The Credit Markets [View article]
    Jason,

    I follow your commentary and was curious as to your background? You seem to have a clear understanding of economics and are very articulate in your explanations, beyond most articles on seeking alpha. Most of all, I was hoping you could point me in the right direction of any literature on these subjects that you would recommend?
    Aug 19 01:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen warns on small cap and momo sector valuations [View news story]
    http://1.usa.gov/1qDEfBJ

    "Nevertheless, valuation metrics in some sectors do appear substantially stretched—particularly those for smaller firms in the social media and
    biotechnology industries,"

    Pg. 20 of the report linked above.

    Agree with John, check your sources before bashing..
    Jul 15 01:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Selling A Few Shares Is Not The Same As Getting A Dividend [View article]
    If companies pay a dividend but don't drop in value. Then wouldn't everyone be scalping dividends? Just buy a stock before ex-div and selling it right after, keep the dividend. If price doesn't change then you just net the dividend? I guess we can all become rich now.
    Jul 10 08:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Banks Announce New Dividend Hikes [View article]
    Hi Pompano,

    Why do you prefer FCA for China exposure?
    May 2 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Are Irrelevant [View article]
    The idea that stock price isn't affected by dividend payments is just wrong. All stocks have an intrinsic value, as they pay out cash (divy) this value goes down. The market can keep prices up but that just means people are willing to pay more for less of a company.

    That aside, I think someone mentioned it above, but if, as you say paying dividends does not reduce the stocks price. Then why wouldn't everyone just buy a stock for the dividend and sell them for the same price after they receive the divy? If the prices aren't linked to the dividend payout then everyone should be enjoying this free lunch. In reality, most know this strategy does not work.
    Feb 24 11:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rebalance To Buffer Crises? [View article]
    He's just trolling the both of you.
    Sep 10 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs: The Writing Is On The Wall [View article]
    Isn't the whole point of the QE to kickstart the economy which in turn would kickstart inflation. Haven't the FED said, they will continue to be active until inflation starts to rise or atleast until core CPI is above 2%? My understanding was that they would begin to taper only once they started seeing upward movement in the CPI, which is why they keep delaying the tapering.

    If interest rates start going up, it will likley negatively impact REITs, but at the same time rates will only start going up as inflation begins to rise which should have a positive impact, correct?
    Aug 2 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CHINA READY FOR A 50% MOVE [View instapost]
    Thanks for the advice.
    Jun 26 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CHINA READY FOR A 50% MOVE [View instapost]
    Hi Pompano,

    I've followed your comments for a while now, and find them incredibly helpful.

    One question I have for you is on forecasting multiple expansion. Currently the S&P is trading at about 14x forward expected earnings, and the historical average is approximately 15x. So I was expecting it to revert to the mean and hit 15x sometime next year, but I don't really have any basis for this. I understand that P/Es are based on expected growth, but I'm not quite sure how to go about forecasting this. If you could explain your thoughts on why we would get to 17x so quickly would be much appreciated.

    Thanks
    Jun 26 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Funds Understand Real Estate Risk [View article]
    Maybe you would, but just taking a small period of time would give a meaningless correlation as it's not representative of the overall relationship. It would be biased. The thing is, I don't think anyone can argue that higher rates wouldn't put downward pressure on housing prices, it's just that there are other stronger forces like the wealth effect from a rising stock market that may well push prices higher.
    Jun 21 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Funds Understand Real Estate Risk [View article]
    I see, well I guess I can agree with you. I did a multiple regression adding the S&P to the mix, which of course has a very strong positive correlation with housing prices. And it seems to me the S&P and/or inflation has a larger impact than the interest rates, the majority of the time (I need to look at this further). But, since I continue to see the market going up over the next few years, I can see housing prices continuing upwards as well.
    Jun 21 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Funds Understand Real Estate Risk [View article]
    Hey Tack,

    When I run a simple correlation between median sales price of new homes and the 10 year treasury over the last years I'm seeing a correlation of -0.895 with an R2 of 0.8. Which makes me feel pretty confident they're inversely related.

    I enjoy your comments and follow you regularly, and have you argue the interest rate/housing price relation before. So I'm just trying to see how you came to your conclusion above.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're saying that the inverse relation doesn't hold when interest rates are below inflation? In that case, I would need to view this relation in isolation?
    Jun 21 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expanding Economy? Consider Adding Copper To Your Portfolio [View article]
    Hey Pompano,

    I believe it's available at the worldbank data bank:

    http://bit.ly/10jRVEj
    May 21 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Market Analysis Of Canada [View article]
    Freddy,

    Appreciate the data, but that has to be one of the ugliest websites I have seen in a long time.
    May 19 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Still Hold High Yield [View article]
    Cranky,

    It seems silly rationalize buying something expected to under perform simply for diversification purposes. If you want fixed income for diversification, why not look at floating rate or convertible fixed income securities that carry less interest rate risk, than your fixed high yields?
    May 17 08:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
28 Comments
37 Likes