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tr4head

tr4head
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  • Utilities' Dividends Look Unsustainable [View article]
    Nice article, but wrong based on the fact that stocks are significantly overpriced on future earnings.
    Jun 9, 2013. 09:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The big year for utility funds is pretty much over, ISI predicts, expecting regulated utilities to post a flat total return for the balance of 2013. Even though the Utilities ETF (XLU) has another 13% to go before matching its 2007 high, ISI views the group’s valuation at nearly 16x next year’s earnings, its exposure to a change in interest rates and its big outperformance YTD as key reasons to stay away. [View news story]
    OK
    Apr 8, 2013. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The big year for utility funds is pretty much over, ISI predicts, expecting regulated utilities to post a flat total return for the balance of 2013. Even though the Utilities ETF (XLU) has another 13% to go before matching its 2007 high, ISI views the group’s valuation at nearly 16x next year’s earnings, its exposure to a change in interest rates and its big outperformance YTD as key reasons to stay away. [View news story]
    They have been saying this since early last year, then again spring, then summer, fall and winter, not to mention earlier this year.

    What folks will try to do to manipulate people into risk!
    Apr 8, 2013. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The big year for utility funds is pretty much over, ISI predicts, expecting regulated utilities to post a flat total return for the balance of 2013. Even though the Utilities ETF (XLU) has another 13% to go before matching its 2007 high, ISI views the group’s valuation at nearly 16x next year’s earnings, its exposure to a change in interest rates and its big outperformance YTD as key reasons to stay away. [View news story]
    This story went out early last year, mid last year, end of last year, etc etc. Same old news, but you can't beat nearly 4% yields.
    Apr 8, 2013. 02:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold may have had its "last hurrah," says SocGen, expecting $1,375/oz. by the end of the year thanks to an improving U.S. economy bringing with it a stronger dollar and higher interest rates. SocGen also notes the turn in professional sentiment as evidenced by heavy ETF redemptions. GLD -0.9% premarket. [View news story]
    Copper has basically been flat since Spring 2010.
    Apr 5, 2013. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A healthy market is supposed to rally on good news, yes? If so, things don't look good for the gold bulls, as the metal fails to muster any bounce on news of the massive BOJ easing. GLD -0.9% premarket with gold at $1,544/oz. - its lowest level since late June. [View news story]
    BTW - US equities are already at year end (2013 consensus) - this is what happens when stocks are being hawked by all the pros, central bankers and FED. Don't get fooled!
    Apr 4, 2013. 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A healthy market is supposed to rally on good news, yes? If so, things don't look good for the gold bulls, as the metal fails to muster any bounce on news of the massive BOJ easing. GLD -0.9% premarket with gold at $1,544/oz. - its lowest level since late June. [View news story]
    Unfortuntely, you are incorrect on all accounts. Growth is ALWAYS faked higher, then revised lower. Since the current adminstration took office, 13 or 19 GDP estimates were wrong on upside. As to inflation, if you believe its 2%, then I have some swampland for you.

    I know its convenient to go along with the flow, but best advise now is to lighten way up on stocks (esp US and Europe, exc Emerging Markets/Asia) and start buying a little gold now when it is low.
    Apr 4, 2013. 09:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious metals (GLD -1.4%, SLV -1.3%) tumble to new multi-month lows, with gold at $1,552/oz. the weakest since last summer and right near what technicians like to call long-term support going back to mid-2011. At $26.87, silver also threatens key chart levels. [View news story]
    Agree. Have said in other posts on same general topic - 20 years from now, maybe sooner, we will look at this period as the great Wall Street/Govt Equities Con job. It goes beyond making the administration look good (helping reelection as well) but to the most basic issue of developed world vs emerging market economies. For example, if anyone has an answer (other than manipulation) for Europe equity markets as good or even better than Asia, then please let the rest of us know. Asia and EMs have growth we can only dream of and with lower PEs. Not to mention booming middle classes of smarter and more hard working people that don't go on the dole.

    BTW, for those Bulls out there that believe the dribble about how we are out of recession (we are still in it IMO), please explain how commodities are not following equities up if our developed world economies are doing so wonderfully? You can fake inflation, unemployment and GDP, but you just can't fake commodity prices. Lower commodity prices means no growth, no growth means recession.


    .
    Apr 3, 2013. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold futures fell $25 to settle at $1,575.90/oz., near four-week lows, as strength in the dollar and rallying U.S. equities has wiped out gains logged when Cyprus began to hit the headlines. Mining stocks such as Goldcorp (GG -2.8%), Barrick (ABX -2.2%), Kinross (KGC -4.3%) and Newmont (NEM -3.7%) are down in tandem with gold prices. [View news story]
    Gold down and dollar up - this is madness, or manipulation. Chose your poison!
    Apr 2, 2013. 05:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold may have had its "last hurrah," says SocGen, expecting $1,375/oz. by the end of the year thanks to an improving U.S. economy bringing with it a stronger dollar and higher interest rates. SocGen also notes the turn in professional sentiment as evidenced by heavy ETF redemptions. GLD -0.9% premarket. [View news story]
    20 years from now, maybe sooner, this is part of what will be called the great "Obama Stock Market Con Job." The goal of our current administration and compliant Central and Regional Bankers/Wall Street Brokers is to lie to the American People re economic growth and low equity valuations. There is no objective evidence of either, you only have to look at the numbers and we all know something is dead wrong when commodities DON'T follow growth. Why? The simple answer is that commodity prices can't be faked - they go up and down with economic activity. We have faked the recovery.

    Why did this happen? You only have to know that we are in a game of survival with emerging markets, mainly SE Asia. Rather than try to improve our economy the old fashioned way (improve education, work ethics, small govt, low taxes and limited regulation) the wall streeters like this author are happy keeping things going merrily along with big govt/big business collaboration.

    The WSJ the other day finally admitted that the market bump under the Obama admin. has been entirely due to Wall Street pros. These pros are now wringing their hands wondering why the little guy has not jumped in? Simple - it will play out just like 2000. The last bump up, the big guys sell en masses and there is nowhere to turn. We know better and we won't be fooled again.
    Apr 2, 2013. 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Up 10%, Are Stocks Now Too Dangerous To Hold? [View article]
    Well, the cat is out of the bag. FINALLY, the WSJ reported that the Obama bull run (yes, its his unfortunately) has been due to professionals. The pros have been upset that the little guy has not joined their party. The bulls, like Mr. Mr. Brochsetin, are a little perturbed that there is simply no volume supporting their cause. So, as part of the master plan, which has been the same for many such overbought cycles, they need to get main street to buy in to the hype. Then, they can sell and the little guy is once more trying to catch the falling knife.

    I am a bear not because of the lies (and there have been many lies posted by the pros about growth, inflation, unemployment and earnings valuations) but because the developed world is in a last gasp fight to the death - and sad to say, they are going to lose. All of Mr. Bronsteins views are nothing - you have to only look at the future and forward PEs, which are as high as they have ever been.

    Its a con and the big guys know they have overbought. They are desperate to get the last push up from the little guy, and then they sell and wait for the next go-round.
    Apr 1, 2013. 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Up 10%, Are Stocks Now Too Dangerous To Hold? [View article]
    Stocks are up already beyond the year end consensus of broker predictions made at the end of 2012. And, you think that the market is priced for more growth?
    Apr 1, 2013. 12:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An unmistakable trend is under way as investors cash in their bond ETF holdings and pour the money into stock funds. "A lot of fixed-income oriented people have decided to start chasing equities," says an ETF trader, as they fear being left behind by an equity market juggernaut (they already have been). Also seeing a rush are precious metals ETFs - the physical and the miners. [View news story]
    Well, its 3-29-13 and guess what, stocks have been boosted - but so have bonds, so not the massive shift that the Bulls tried to fabricate. Better have plenty of stop losses set for equities, because when people realize that valuations are near all time highs for DOW on going forward PE basis, the falling knife is hard to catch.
    Mar 29, 2013. 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Did All The Bears Go? [View article]
    No Bears = Recipe For Developed World Disaster. The only bears are ind. investors, who have learned what happens in the end game - they get stuck and the big guys get out.
    Mar 22, 2013. 01:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Western markets are mostly marking time alongside the events in Cyprus, but emerging market debt continues a downtrend begun some time ago with the EMB hitting an 8-month low today. It's likewise with equities - off more than 5% YTD, EEM, VWO, and DEM are getting smoked by the SPY[View news story]
    SPY and DIA are, unfortunately, going to be long term losers compared to the growth prospects and better financials in EMs and esp China than the Developed world economies. These areas have been beaten down by manipulators - its us vs them and we are going to lose the economic battles of the next 50 years.
    Mar 22, 2013. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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330 Comments
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