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tr4head

tr4head
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  • Market Drowns Under A Stronger Dollar: Stay Defensive [View article]
    Looking at all the angles, seems that the ONLY think you can bet on is volatility. So, maybe I need to look at the VXX/VIX stuff. With $2T on the sidelines waiting to drift in/out, the volatility indexes (if you can trust their alogorithms) may well be the best investment option for the next year.
    Sep 29, 2011. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Drowns Under A Stronger Dollar: Stay Defensive [View article]
    Gold and Silver will have some selling going on because of the new margin requirements effective today, then we get back to a floor and on and up again tho maybe a little slower.

    If there is anything you can say about this market (and you only have to look at the the polar opposite views on SA) it is that there is a huge amount of UNCERTAINTY. Uncertainty is a killer of equities because of increased volatility. I think that will be good for Gold along.
    Sep 26, 2011. 08:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold 'Believers' Appear Distraught Over Dollar Strength [View article]
    Your post is a clear example of why those anti-Gold folks are just mad at us for getting it right when you had it wrong.

    I have both Gold and equities and really have no cross to burn, except my brokers last statement. I simply want to make money and still see as many good reasons to buy gold as there are good reasons to buy stocks, tho for the time being none of us know for sure where the winds will blow for either.

    That's exactly the kind of market I like for Gold. Uncertainty KILLS equities and is good for Gold.
    Sep 25, 2011. 10:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold 'Believers' Appear Distraught Over Dollar Strength [View article]
    mobyss - Gold has been slow and steady over the last 10 years. All the bubbles you indicate lasted no more than 4 years. Hence, Gold is not a bubble, rather a good (nor speculative) investment.
    Sep 25, 2011. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold 'Believers' Appear Distraught Over Dollar Strength [View article]
    Let me bounce in here.

    "In the case of gold futures, the underlying asset is gold bullion. Gold bullion does not create wealth because it is an inanimate object. I think this is a pretty simple point. A gold bar is exactly the same gold bar this year as it was last year."

    Oil is an inanimate object and I am sure you would agree it creates wealth. Just because something is "inanimate" does not mean it cannot create wealth.

    Gold creates wealth too - its not as leveraged as Oil, but has its own wealth creating purposes. If not, it would be as valuable as dirt, yet you can even make $$ on dirt and even on wasted crap too, all inanimate objects. Come to think of it, except for human labor and knowledge, almost everything else sold in the world is inanimate and sure creates plenty of wealth for the people smart enough to see the demand.
    Sep 25, 2011. 10:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Gold Performs During A Financial Crash [View article]
    I am still long in UGL/DGP - falling knifes should not be caught, especially with 2X the reaction.

    JP Morgan has not backed off their $2500 prediction as far as I know BY year end. This sounds crazy now, but I still think possible. All things are in place for Gold long term, as this author said and I agree. Not to panic, UGL will spring back a lot faster because of the leverage, but have to admit, losing 11% in one day will test your meddle.

    The US dollar is strong now, but the LT trend is what you have to focus on - downward dollar, growing emerging markets, inflation, Obama running things for another year.

    There, that made me feel better.
    Sep 23, 2011. 08:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Markets Are Signaling An Economic Downturn [View article]
    Gold
    Sep 22, 2011. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Snapshot: Two Steps Forward, Two Steps Back [View article]
    Very good - nice graph. I expect to double bottom before moving higher on a more perm. basis, likely another 30 ms.

    Unfortuntately for fojack, no rally coming. At some point, it just does not make sense to look for the govt to solve all problems and all investments. If we had let the free ent. system work its magic, I think we would have never had these problems, esp the real estate debacle which was a political exercise to get minorities into homes regardless of ability to pay. Blame Bush, Blame Obama, Blame Barney and a lot of others, we are paying the price.
    Sep 21, 2011. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Number One Reason To Buy Stocks Right Now [View article]
    I am not an apocolyptic person at heart, but you have to wonder about the S&P bottom of 666, don't you? Too strange.
    Sep 21, 2011. 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Number One Reason To Buy Stocks Right Now [View article]
    "Investors are notorious for poor timing. They sell stocks when they should be buying. And they buy stocks when they should be selling."

    Hold the phone? Last week's buy binge does not qualify, ie 5 days of gains and over 4.5% not enough? Well how about all the stock gains of the last 2 years??

    Investors have been pouring back into stocks since the so-called "end of the recession". They HAVE been buying - so by your own logical take, the market is WAY overbought.

    I agree with your view of the little guy investor, but you have arrived at the wrong conclusion - its time to get out of equities now.
    Sep 20, 2011. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Pop The Gold Bubble - Update [View article]
    I really can't make sense of your case of lower gold in light of the chaos in financial markets and inflation all over the place (yet to be counted accurately here by our BLS, but I digress). You say that bubbles last for no more than 4 years, but the Gold bull market has been going on now for at least 10 years, tho most gains I agree have been after the 2008 worldwide financial crisis. I will take this point on as well, take a look at this chart comparing the DOW and IAU since 2008.

    http://yhoo.it/nRsyMZ=^DJI+Interactive#char...

    The two indices diverged when the worlds financial problems could no longer be hidden. Since these financial problems remain and are likely to be with us for years to come, what in your opinion would cause a sudden shift in sentiment from Gold to equities? I sure don't see it, at least as long as the AA (Affirmative Action) President resides in the WH.

    Since Gold has been doing well for many years before 2008 there can only be two options: Gold is either a Bubble that does not play by your rules (can't last more than 2-4 years) or it is NOT a bubble. Which is it? Since Gold is the only common denominator among world economies, and there is no sudden change in the debt levels of the Developing world on the horizon (could actually get much worse), my take is quite the opposite of yours.

    I think Gold will remain a powerful financial force because there is no other acceptable player and it will remain a storehouse of value no matter what language you speak.
    Sep 19, 2011. 09:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Pop The Gold Bubble - Update [View article]
    True enough, but try putting a stop loss on real estate :-)
    Sep 18, 2011. 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Oil Is Signaling That S&P 500 Resistance At 1220 May Hold [View article]
    No - have to disagree - the US equity market has been in a bubble since the so-called "end of recession", which of course did not really occur. Whether its a continuation of the 2008 recession, or double-dip, our defunct economy is still with us (witness growing unemployment, lowered manufacturing activity and dead as a nail real estate) and earning estimates are being lowered across the board.

    Oil goes up for a lot of reasons and many don't have to relate to the stock market, for example, maybe growing Emerging markets and the crashing greenback?
    Sep 18, 2011. 08:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Pop The Gold Bubble - Update [View article]
    I will tell you what will Pop - that's the US equity market bubble - its been running on empty since 2008 when everyone thought the big R was over, not.

    Gold will still hunt much longer than US stocks. Now lets see what just came out this week: Inflation UP, Unemployment UP, Earnings projections DOWN.

    Now what exactly is in a bubble? If not tomorrow, then next week, the DOW will roar backwards big time. Mark it down.

    Here is the reason why Stocks are up in the face of near disaster in the financial markets of the developed world. If you have just one good thing to hang the hat on (maybe Europe won't implode just yet, someone is lending to make the ouch better) its OK to dive into Stocks even as all other indicators are in the tank, I will ignore those little details. Can I have some more Stocks, Please? After all, my returns are near ZERO in money markets. Better be good at selling because you can't catch a falling knife and it will take 50% returns to break even for a 25% correction.

    We have some catching up to do with the rest of the World. Our financial state is worse than most Emerging markets yet the DOW/S&P has had way better returns this year. Some of this is due to currency loss, but not enough to make up the difference and most real returns overseas are still much less than the US Market.
    Sep 15, 2011. 05:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Are Not Cheap: Market More Likely To Go Down Than Up [View article]
    The 2008 recession never ended, tho the Washington pundits and their media friends told us differently. I don't care what they say about 2 consecutive negative growth periods, if jobs never recover, the economy never did either. Looking back from 10 years hence, we may find that the economic stats about the great recession (and inflation) were BS fom the get go. This is clearly possible considering what we now know about all the revisions that occur to the detriment of the man in the WH.

    USA Today - a great Obama supporter - just before the Speech of the Century had their undies in a bun about the stock market and said if we just became more optimistic and bought stocks like Good Confident Americans that would fix everything. Liberal blather, disconnected from reality as well as economics, yet they will do anything to support their chosen one even if it means Granny loses it all.

    The market problems far and wide are all Political now, no solutions from the Fed expected.

    Talk amongst yourselves.
    Sep 9, 2011. 08:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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