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tr4head

tr4head
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  • Stocks Are Not Cheap: Market More Likely To Go Down Than Up [View article]
    I disagree with your conclusion, but gave you a thumbs up because of your clear headed logic. I do listen to all sides, but I cannot be in the optimistic column and suspect that many more are moving toward total market pessimism. I have lost faith in our Ponzi scheme of houses and benefits for the masses, it doesn't work in Europe (less the massive house push which was simply the result of minority influence and demands in US just to be "fair") and it wont work here. Govt spending is breaking both economies apart, its a slow burn but you can't stop this runaway train.
    Sep 9 08:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Are Not Cheap: Market More Likely To Go Down Than Up [View article]
    I agree with your overall reading of the market. No matter what the Bulls say, this Bull won't hunt.

    The last 2 years, the market has gone up because (1) we were told the recession is over and (2) there was no where else to put your money.

    The first reason is simply wrong (no job growth has occurred, hence recession never did end). As for the second point, the fact people were putting money into stocks because there were no other investments available are deluding themselves. Funny money was printed and found its way into the markets, never a good reason to invest.

    No, you are not overly pessimistic as some say here. Its natural to find ANY GOOD REASON to invest in equities when you have cash earning nothing. Its the fools game tho and since we have no more bullets to fire, the answer is now Political. Even the great Bernake says so. So, until the Political house is in order and we get a change in the WH (will it happen??), I think the best equity investments will be overseas in Emerging Markets.
    Sep 5 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Look So Bad They Can Only Get Better [View article]
    Of course its Obama. Read Fridays op-ed by the Nobel winning U of Chicago prof. He blames everything on the Obama Administration - nothing he has done has helped and almost everything he has done has hindered.

    The problems are Political and only a Political solution (getting someone who knows what they are doing in the WH) will get us out of the malaise.
    Sep 4 10:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Look So Bad They Can Only Get Better [View article]
    You never heard of the calm BEFORE the Storm? Why presuppose it has to get better - as a matter of fact, the market, for the last 2 years, has expected the recession to end, when we know now that this never occurred.

    Have to believe the opposite - we have been behaving as tho everything was great, not as you postulate.
    Sep 4 10:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Unconvincing Rally [View article]
    Just to note - esp for Varan who can't handle people who disagree with him - this comment about the consistent downward revisions to key economic stats was made BEFORE the recalculated revisions to job growth on 9-2. And, you know what happened to the market when the non-fabricated numbers saw the light of day. This is the point I was trying to make, and I think this example pretty well speaks for itself, like it or not.

    Look at the WSJ chart on the cover - we NEVER came out of the recession, at least when compared to the last 3 Recessions when looking at the non-farm job growth.
    Sep 3 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The August Rally Is A Head Fake? [View article]
    Your IQ is showing. Bloody thought policer's. Go back to your cave in England and when you get a life and can carry on an intelligent conversation without resorting to some moronic PC montage, come back out with the adults.
    Sep 3 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Week Is Critical For Shorts [View article]
    We never left the recession of 2008. Look at todays WSJ chart showing the growth in non-farm payrolls coming out of the last 4 recessions, including our current fiasco. All came back within a couple years, we never left, no matter what WS and the WH tells us. Biggest scam ever.

    Without doing anything more than following the very slight uptick in employment since 08, I suspect that we have 4 more years of recession to look forward to, then might get back to real employment growth - the ultimate indicator of a sound economy.
    Sep 3 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can't Get It Straight: Is It Dow 20,000 Or 2,000 [View article]
    Nice article. Possible answer to your question below:

    "What caused the run-up between 1982 and 2002 when the farm was delivered as promised? Not sure and plenty of opinions exist."

    How about the 401-K?
    Sep 3 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The August Rally Is A Head Fake? [View article]
    For those interested: AA = Affirmative Action, not African American (tho the concept holds true). I believe in a meritocracy (which we have lost to a large extent) and support all people and all races that earn their stripes thru hard work and education. Obama was selected by the media and to some extent, the American People, because it was time to have a Black President. That's not necessarily a bad idea at all, just that we have an Affirmative Action result, we just don't have the most qualified. We elected someone with no experience or background to direct the World's largest economy and we are paying the piper. Its all about Politics at this point, like it or not.

    Sep 2 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The August Rally Is A Head Fake? [View article]
    I will quit talking about race when he does.
    Sep 2 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The August Rally Is A Head Fake? [View article]
    As I noted earlier, the stats coming out of Washington are not believeable. Case in point: Today, -another- downward revision of overly optimistic and inflated numbers for Job growth, kicking the market in the back side.

    But don't worry - help is on the way - our AA President is going to give a speech soon on jobs. Can't wait.
    Sep 2 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The August Rally Is A Head Fake? [View article]
    Yes - but you better know when to fold 'em, because the next drop could be off a cliff. A little SDS and DGP for backups (double short ETF) if you want to play in the sand.
    Sep 1 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The August Rally Is A Head Fake? [View article]
    Yes - people are literally chomping at the bits to make money in stocks with their cash on the sidelines. Recipe for disaster. The Fat Lady will be singing soon and you better hold on to your hats.

    Look at the Dow Jones vs ALL Global Indices. We are way above even the most growing economies. See: news.morningstar.com/i...

    At the very least, we have to go down significantly just for parity, notwithstanding the emerg. markets that are doing MUCH better - their economies are humming along. This which would mean a drop of 10-15% just for parity. I suspect that we could be in for a lot worse.
    Sep 1 08:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Unconvincing Rally [View article]
    Varan - sorry to burst your bubble and your investments - but here are the facts that you chose not to refute, spelled out for you so its easily understood. Which don't you believe?

    1. GDP downward revisions have been the norm, are revised downward more than upward and by no means are accurate.
    2. The UAW just reported that they are trying to squeeze more out of auto industry and will push their new Chief to tow the line to the needs of the mob.
    3. In a detailed WSJ expose on why nobody is hiring (have you heard about the unemployment rate?), their poll reported that business owners are scared of the unknown costs of health care and, by default, Dem control of the WH.

    Now, if you are able to process this and can come up with legitimate reasons to keep this market overpriced, have at it.

    My advise to you would be sell anything that has gone up more than 5% in the QE3 funny money rally and buy SDS, then some Gold.

    As long as the Affirmative Action Pres is in the WH, best to be VERY defensive.
    Aug 31 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Unconvincing Rally [View article]
    You got to be kidding, maybe your view is from too far away. There is NO recovery (can't have a "jobless recovery", sorry). As long as we have academia running the economy from the WH, there is no hope - at least until things change on the political front. And,even that is a big question with the massive # of entitlees out there.

    Nobody is hiring because there is too much uncertainty re our nearly full scale case of your brand of Socialism. Please keep it across the pond. And, when nobody hires, spending drops, houses and cars (yes) don't sell and we have seen where that leads us.

    As for your comments about autos - wait until the UAW gets through with them, so long profits. They are already frothing at the mouth to get rid of low entry wages and increase pay/benefits dramatically.

    Finally, beware ALL of the govt stats out there - they are as reliable as the NOAA storm trackers.

    C'est la vei
    Aug 30 09:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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