The Gold Trade: Prepare for the Plunge [View article]
"I don’t accept that gold can continue to outperform in a clearly deflationary environment or that it's really a new currency and here’s why."
You base this on what exactly - our provably phoney economic data? How many times do you have to see the GDP number backtracked to a more accurate but unahappy number. Economic data from CBO/BLS/Fed and other "govt" sources is produced by folks that want to support Bernake and our affirmative action President. Bernake himself proved the value of controlling the data re inflation - its only in your head, so don't worry.
No, I think Gold will continue up, it should be $2400 if corrected for inflation (even phoney inflation) just to get back to the 80's peak. We have stagflation just like the 80's and you know what happened then - and I believe Gold has a way to go just to get back to these levels. I am not alone, JP Morgan says $2500 by year end.
We have not even discussed the macro political/economic malaise and near financial collapse in the Western world. Given all this, I really think logic tells you that the US $$ is overvalued and Gold is undervalued.
Is Wall Street Trying to Force Us Out of the Markets? Here's How to Protect Yourself [View article]
The problem with the small guys like us who look to insights from other folks like us (and a few big guys that fish here at Seeking A) is that we are absolutely awash in information, we panic: Hedge, buy puts, go long, go short, go cash, go to Australia.
I do know that Wall St wants you to jump all over the place and they win when you do, no love lost here, and they don't care who is in the WH as we have seen. WS has almost turned fascist, just read the kinder and gentler WSJ these days and you know what I mean. Follow the money, this is dog eat dog and it will never change.
How to make money and protect yourself? Nobody knows for certain but I do know that in the midst of all the instant info madness, we need to FORCE ourselves to stick with our common sense and not forget what history has already shown. We know that QE3 will force people into the markets and this will make stocks go up by default. So, when QE3 is announced again, you need to be in - but put in stop losses on everything you try because when the next downwinds hit, it will be worse than you can imagine. I am talking interest rates of 10% or even 20% to get inflation back in control. You think the real estate market is bad now, you ain't seen nothing yet.
Be prepared, thats all - but use the next push higher to create some reserves because I think you will need it. Its all politics now and I just don't have faith that we have the steely backbones that our parents had to dig out of a crisis.
I read Mr. Reich-a's comments. Beyond scary. Being fiscally responsible is a "fetish"??? What planet is this guy on. All of his favorite Socialist/Marxist states have failed and our wanting to go another way is a "fetish"? Hard to believe that our intelligentsia is so dumb.
June same-store sales (actual vs. Thomson Reuters estimate), update #1: COST +14% vs. +12.7%. HOTT +0.4% vs. -2.4%. LTD +12% vs. +3.8%. SSI +1.8% vs. +1.5%. ZUMZ +9.6% vs. +5.8%. 0 misses, 5 beats.[View news story]
Agree - forecasts always too conservative, everything coming up roses in the good ol USA. HITH can you go from -2.4% to a gainer in one month? Or, the LTD off by a factor of 4X?
The Repubs are now starting the pre-ordained caving on tax increases. This will be done to stave off blame for shutdown which the media will happily promote in order to make the Boris Badanov in the WH look good.
Cheap Houses vs. Pricey Stocks: Real Estate Currently Has Better Relative Value [View article]
Actually, residential RE will likely remain a poor bet for the near term. The fact that homes have not hit bottom yet, even with all the Feds juicing with impossibly low mortgage rates, is a scary thing to ponder if rates move up before home prices stabilize. What could change the equation is if home prices start moving up before rates do - this is dependent on higher employment and real wages. I don't see this on the immediate horizon - but if you plan to stay in a home for 5-7 years, it just might be a good investment.
Bernanke Surprises Markets With the Truth [View article]
Twice inflation pricing for a service (tuition) only happens when there is a monopoly and 3rd party payments to support the consumer (loans and lotteries, etal). This can't and shouldn't be sustainable. Eventually the education house of cards will fall like all the rest. Has anything paid for largely by a 3rd party ever been in control? Think health care.
Bernanke Surprises Markets With the Truth [View article]
Yes - good point - confidence is not required for a good economy but is almost always a result. Sometimes we have it all backwards, like poverty causes crime - its exactly the other way around. The folks that take and redistribute will never see this truth.
Bernanke Surprises Markets With the Truth [View article]
"Ben Bernanke has pinpointed the two crucial factors behind our economic disease: consumer confidence and the willingness to spend. Bravo!"
I agree with your premise, but these critical factors are merely "symptoms" of the Jimmy-Carter like malaise we are in and does not get to the root of the problem. Americans have no shortage of confidence, this is our strength but also our demise. When we were first and second mortgaging our homes to the hilt and beyond our ability to pay this was not from a lack of confidence that all things go up forever (like our incomes) and we all live happily ever after. We were blind to our own greed, simply defined as unrestrained desires for stuff. Nobody likes more stuff than the US consumer, esp some of the lower income groups that see what others have and can't sleep at night without it so they mortgage our future in droves to buy it (houses) or lease it (cars).
So, you think we just need more confidence and more spending? I submit that we had plenty of it pre-2007 and that is exactly what got us in trouble. What we need is fiscal restraint on ALL levels so we live within our means. That is the crucial factor. No more BLING.
Weekly Indicators: The Slowdown Is Here [View article]
The only sectors to run wild with money and growth (relatively speaking of course) are education, health care and Govt (almost all levels). People in these sectors are the nouveau rich while the rest of us poor saps are just making it. Not coincidentally, these sectors have the largest union membership among job sectors. Their services are in demand and we pay the price even as the quality of their services suffer. Unless we the people get smart, they will bankrupt all of us, especially the Federal employees. Can you imagine running a business where the employees (Govt workers) make more than the employers (us)?
Financial Stress Indices Suggest Dow Weakness Will Be Shallow and Short [View article]
"I believe that the weakness in equities, currencies, and commodities as of late was due to fear, not fundamentals. "
No, the weakness is due to market realizations that the fed has created artiifical liquidity by devaluing the $$ which in turn has forced people into the stock market. This must create unsustainable stock market values. We also have structural problems with debt and home values that are not going to improve anytime soon. These are very serious problems that you seem to miss and we still don't have a handle on our $14T debt. The fed debt is a big boat anchor on everything, which forces the fed to QE 1,2,3, ad infinitum to keep interest payments on the debt (and home mortgages) artificially low. Imagine what happens to home values if interest rates revert back to even 50% of the norm? Total meltdown of an industry that is still a huge part of the economy.
If anything, I would agree with GS that commodities priced in US Phoneybacks are going to go up much better than the general market, incl. your big cap stocks.
Trading Week Outlook: May 2 - May 6, 2011 [View article]
The smallish increases or "expansion" does not seem to justify anybody putting more $$ into the US Stock Market, esp in light of expected GDP to remain well below historical levels that had supporting PEs at or below where we are at now. I am beginning to think we are ridding a bubble fueled by the forced entry into stocks because there is no alternative investment. Since the Bernake policy also causes the USD to collapse before our eyes, if you must, I would keep commodities on the list.
You have to wonder tho - if Mr. Ben feels that collapsing the dollar is so important, how bad is the underlying/structural problem? Does he fear rising rates to even normal levels would cause a complete meltdown from a housing collapse? Scary.
End of QE2 Setting the Climate for Substantial Downside in Asset Prices [View article]
Its not just commodites. Hasn't the FED turned stocks into "assets" too with profits devalued by inflation but posting nice comparative profits to a much weaker time?
I would still be longer on commodities (as a general rule) than US stocks. I am short on the DOW, the train will come to a halt because it is running out of fuel.
The Gold Trade: Prepare for the Plunge [View article]
You base this on what exactly - our provably phoney economic data? How many times do you have to see the GDP number backtracked to a more accurate but unahappy number. Economic data from CBO/BLS/Fed and other "govt" sources is produced by folks that want to support Bernake and our affirmative action President. Bernake himself proved the value of controlling the data re inflation - its only in your head, so don't worry.
No, I think Gold will continue up, it should be $2400 if corrected for inflation (even phoney inflation) just to get back to the 80's peak. We have stagflation just like the 80's and you know what happened then - and I believe Gold has a way to go just to get back to these levels. I am not alone, JP Morgan says $2500 by year end.
We have not even discussed the macro political/economic malaise and near financial collapse in the Western world. Given all this, I really think logic tells you that the US $$ is overvalued and Gold is undervalued.
Is Wall Street Trying to Force Us Out of the Markets? Here's How to Protect Yourself [View article]
I do know that Wall St wants you to jump all over the place and they win when you do, no love lost here, and they don't care who is in the WH as we have seen. WS has almost turned fascist, just read the kinder and gentler WSJ these days and you know what I mean. Follow the money, this is dog eat dog and it will never change.
How to make money and protect yourself? Nobody knows for certain but I do know that in the midst of all the instant info madness, we need to FORCE ourselves to stick with our common sense and not forget what history has already shown. We know that QE3 will force people into the markets and this will make stocks go up by default. So, when QE3 is announced again, you need to be in - but put in stop losses on everything you try because when the next downwinds hit, it will be worse than you can imagine. I am talking interest rates of 10% or even 20% to get inflation back in control. You think the real estate market is bad now, you ain't seen nothing yet.
Be prepared, thats all - but use the next push higher to create some reserves because I think you will need it. Its all politics now and I just don't have faith that we have the steely backbones that our parents had to dig out of a crisis.
U.S. Downgraded: What to Do Now [View article]
Heading for the Cliff [View article]
Sector Breadth Readings [View article]
June same-store sales (actual vs. Thomson Reuters estimate), update #1:
COST +14% vs. +12.7%.
HOTT +0.4% vs. -2.4%.
LTD +12% vs. +3.8%.
SSI +1.8% vs. +1.5%.
ZUMZ +9.6% vs. +5.8%.
0 misses, 5 beats. [View news story]
The Repubs are now starting the pre-ordained caving on tax increases. This will be done to stave off blame for shutdown which the media will happily promote in order to make the Boris Badanov in the WH look good.
Cheap Houses vs. Pricey Stocks: Real Estate Currently Has Better Relative Value [View article]
Bernanke Surprises Markets With the Truth [View article]
Not if you don't like brain cancer.
Bernanke Surprises Markets With the Truth [View article]
Bernanke Surprises Markets With the Truth [View article]
Bernanke Surprises Markets With the Truth [View article]
I agree with your premise, but these critical factors are merely "symptoms" of the Jimmy-Carter like malaise we are in and does not get to the root of the problem. Americans have no shortage of confidence, this is our strength but also our demise. When we were first and second mortgaging our homes to the hilt and beyond our ability to pay this was not from a lack of confidence that all things go up forever (like our incomes) and we all live happily ever after. We were blind to our own greed, simply defined as unrestrained desires for stuff. Nobody likes more stuff than the US consumer, esp some of the lower income groups that see what others have and can't sleep at night without it so they mortgage our future in droves to buy it (houses) or lease it (cars).
So, you think we just need more confidence and more spending? I submit that we had plenty of it pre-2007 and that is exactly what got us in trouble. What we need is fiscal restraint on ALL levels so we live within our means. That is the crucial factor. No more BLING.
Weekly Indicators: The Slowdown Is Here [View article]
Financial Stress Indices Suggest Dow Weakness Will Be Shallow and Short [View article]
No, the weakness is due to market realizations that the fed has created artiifical liquidity by devaluing the $$ which in turn has forced people into the stock market. This must create unsustainable stock market values. We also have structural problems with debt and home values that are not going to improve anytime soon. These are very serious problems that you seem to miss and we still don't have a handle on our $14T debt. The fed debt is a big boat anchor on everything, which forces the fed to QE 1,2,3, ad infinitum to keep interest payments on the debt (and home mortgages) artificially low. Imagine what happens to home values if interest rates revert back to even 50% of the norm? Total meltdown of an industry that is still a huge part of the economy.
If anything, I would agree with GS that commodities priced in US Phoneybacks are going to go up much better than the general market, incl. your big cap stocks.
Trading Week Outlook: May 2 - May 6, 2011 [View article]
You have to wonder tho - if Mr. Ben feels that collapsing the dollar is so important, how bad is the underlying/structural problem? Does he fear rising rates to even normal levels would cause a complete meltdown from a housing collapse? Scary.
End of QE2 Setting the Climate for Substantial Downside in Asset Prices [View article]
I would still be longer on commodities (as a general rule) than US stocks. I am short on the DOW, the train will come to a halt because it is running out of fuel.