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tr4head

tr4head
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  • Hedge fund guru Jim Rogers has made no secret of what he thinks of the Fed's monetary stimulus. It's "outrageous," he says. Now he's putting his money where his mouth is, saying that he's begun shorting U.S. government debt. "It's all artificial," Rogers quips. "The Federal Reserve is printing money as fast as they can. The Bank of Japan said 'we're going to print unlimited money.'" - If he's right, that bet could pay off big. [View news story]
    All artificial, but don't restrict your views to bonds. US equities are due for a big fall as well.

    To people smarter than me, how can we have GDP growth (per US FED) when S&P topline growth has decreased every year since 2008? Have we phoney'd up the numbers?

    Something a bit scary to think about.
    Feb 8, 2013. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulls Remain Determined [View article]
    So, did you :-)?

    Market is not supportable at these levels, IMO. PEs will have to be adjusted downward, and stocks have to follow regardless of being "forced" into equities by the Fed.

    To people smarter than me, how can we have GDP growth when S&P topline growth has decreased every year since 2008? Something to think about.
    Feb 8, 2013. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small Investors Feed Sharks [View article]
    Great article, timely.

    The one thing that dampens returns tho is the very currency downward pressure that pumps up. We buy shares in US dollars, so if foreign market currency falls, it takes less USD, so you lose value on the variance. But all things equal, it is probably a net gain for the country that devalues.
    Feb 8, 2013. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulls Remain Determined [View article]
    Respectfully disagree. Zero interest rates and returns, thanks to QE, is and has been driving the market since '08. Money Market funds are paying what for parking cash - .05%? The fact that we have had to do this for so long reveals stuctural problems deep below the surface.

    Real earnings based rallies have top line growth - S&P topline growth has declined every year since BO was elected. Earnings are from cuts and we are surprised that stubborn employment number is so high? We have the highest increase in unemployment in the world since the financial collapse. I think this is largely a fabricated rally that can no longer remain disconnected from the economy. Sadly, this bull market has indirectly made our current administration look a whole lot better than it is and has now assured the same economic and spending policies that delays the serious reforms.
    Feb 7, 2013. 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The most exciting returns are to be had from an asset class where those who know it best love it least. What does it say when the first pick by Bill Gross at the Barron's Roundtable is gold? Gross isn't calling for an imminent bond bear market, but he doesn't see much upside either. For a fixed-income substitute, he recommends (what else) his BOND ETF, which trounced the competition in its first year and just added the use of derivatives to its toolbox. [View news story]
    For the sake of accuracy, it's 14/19 overstated GDP estimates. The 4th QTR 2012 was overstated by OVER 1%. Please review the 1-31-2013 WSJ article, A7 in print edition, which has all the GDP estimates charted since Obama took office.

    Anyone on either side should see that the Economic numbers out of Washington, including inflation, are highly questionable.

    Bernake has been quoted as saying that inflation is some sort of "mindset" vs a real number. If he believes this, then you can see why lying about inflation may be nothing more than ends justifying means.
    Feb 3, 2013. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The most exciting returns are to be had from an asset class where those who know it best love it least. What does it say when the first pick by Bill Gross at the Barron's Roundtable is gold? Gross isn't calling for an imminent bond bear market, but he doesn't see much upside either. For a fixed-income substitute, he recommends (what else) his BOND ETF, which trounced the competition in its first year and just added the use of derivatives to its toolbox. [View news story]
    D-V. Of course you would be with Warren. And Al G. And Bill G. I don't care who likes Gold or not, I make my own decisions and its the place to be right now.

    Gold stabilzed and found it's bottom. When the inevitable happens, you would be looking back and wondering why you believed our lying Govt hype about no or even low inflation, just like the almost always overstated GDP growth I mentioned earlier. Does that fact alone not bring you a little pause about things?

    The air will soon be out of our sails and Stagflation will be here. That may make you happy, getting back to the Jimmy Carter days and all ;-).

    BTW, Buffet is not right all the time, especially lately (his bet on rail for example).
    Feb 2, 2013. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The most exciting returns are to be had from an asset class where those who know it best love it least. What does it say when the first pick by Bill Gross at the Barron's Roundtable is gold? Gross isn't calling for an imminent bond bear market, but he doesn't see much upside either. For a fixed-income substitute, he recommends (what else) his BOND ETF, which trounced the competition in its first year and just added the use of derivatives to its toolbox. [View news story]
    Right Wing Central Planners? The only place that could have taught you this ridiculous notion is either from your typical College Professor or the rotten public school you probably went to. I won't even argue here with someone of your caliber.

    Sadly, there is nothing but irrationality and childlike ranting emotion from anti business Socialists who have the nerve to complain about the very people that they use force to take their money. Unless you are living off the taxpayer, you are probably employed by a businessman. You might think about the hand that feeds you - its either a middle class taxpayer or one of those filthy businessmen.

    Of course, you could be running your own business, which would take hard work and brains. But I rejected that possibility out of hand as soon as I read that last sentence and that you eat at McDonalds.
    Feb 2, 2013. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The most exciting returns are to be had from an asset class where those who know it best love it least. What does it say when the first pick by Bill Gross at the Barron's Roundtable is gold? Gross isn't calling for an imminent bond bear market, but he doesn't see much upside either. For a fixed-income substitute, he recommends (what else) his BOND ETF, which trounced the competition in its first year and just added the use of derivatives to its toolbox. [View news story]
    D-VA. As a liberal Democrat, you believe in your beloved massive government and what they say about inflation. These people you probably believe without hestitation have been proven time and again to be as wrong as the 16/19 OVERSTATED quarterly GDP estimates since your POTUS has been in office. Yes, they have been lying to us regularly and consistently and if you think they are reporting the truth about Inflation, its Kool Aid time for you.

    Hard assets and commodities/EMs are really the only place to be, and most smart people already know this.

    And yes, this means GOLD is the picture if you want to protect your investments from the coming Japanese like calamities.
    Feb 2, 2013. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks started the new month with a bang, as the Dow topped 14,000 for the first time since Oct. 2007 on encouraging data on U.S. jobs and manufacturing. Most sectors enjoyed buying interest, particularly financials; BofA and Morgan Stanley each gained more than 3%, while Citi and JPMorgan rose ~2%. Crude oil continued higher; Treasury prices fell, with longer yields at 10-month highs. [View news story]
    If you believe your Govt/Fed Stats I believe you may be in big trouble. Fact is (check WSJ article earlier this week), of the 19 quarters since Obama has been in office, take a guess how many Fed ESTIMATES of GDP growth were OVERSTATED vs UNDERSTATED. As Max Smart would say (but this time would be true), "would you believe" 16 out of 19? That's right, almost 85% of the time, our ineffectual govt guessed wrong and had to revise growth downward. Its getting worse with last quarters estimate off by over 1%.

    You have to ask yourself, logically, since this is just an innocent coincidence, why would the Fed be doing this? Of course, the answer is to boost investor confidence in equities/overall economy. This also helped Obama get in office, an example of unintended consequences.

    Now, if this same govt is proved to cook the books, what are they saying above inflation? I think we know the answer and its not a good sign for things to come, like drastically rising interest rates to stop inflation in a recessionary environment. Think Jimmy Carter.
    Feb 2, 2013. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Biotech Stocks Surging Higher With Volume [View article]
    Yeah, just like Celsion, pumped up on SA.

    BTW, what happened to KERX? You should be ashamed of yourself touting this crap. MAPP is the only thing treading water of your 3 picks, went up before your call. I am sorry for being so cynical here, but please. I know you can rarely make big money in the biotech arena but will lose way more than you win. Buy a BIOTECH etf if you want in this market, at least you can absorb the massive losers. The folks in these businesses may be trying to change the world, but mostly are for changing their net worth.

    A friend of mine was all in for CLSN after reading some BS on the company here in SA, unfortunately he did not listen to me and got killed like many others.
    Feb 1, 2013. 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global gold production has reached record highs in recent years, but NBF analysts predict a "production cliff" - too few large deposits discovered to sustain current production rates - ahead in which senior gold miners will begin to undergo a sharp production decline. In such an environment, M&A involving projects with low capital intensity, favorable logistics and strong returns should be a key driver. [View news story]
    I think it means Gold will go up. I think.
    Feb 1, 2013. 10:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Biotech Stocks Surging Higher With Volume [View article]
    I treat almost all of these Biotechs as nothing really more than stock Ponzi schemes. The little guys have their future rising on FDA approvals, usually on one or two hits, and its entirely out of our hands to predict where its going. So, selling before the news is the way to play, if you are big risk taker. Some will be huge hits, some even home runs but many will be sacrifice fly-outs.
    Jan 24, 2013. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Biotech Stocks Surging Higher With Volume [View article]
    So, you want us to buy a Biotech because it is being bought out? A little late in the game, don't you think?
    Jan 24, 2013. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A look at the relative strength of S&P 500 sectors vs. the overall average over the past year finds 3 - Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Financials (XLF), and Health Care (XLV) outperforming. Big outperformers a few months back, Telecom (IYZ) and Utilities (XLU) now trail. Underperforming badly not long ago, Energy (XLE) and Industrials (XLI) claw their way back. [View news story]
    Thanks for the tip - now is the time to buy XLU, XLE and sell off Financials and Consumer Discretionary. Unless of course you think rising unemployment and ever decreasing top line sales of S&P 500 is a good thing?

    Fools game to be bullish on anything American or European.
    Jan 24, 2013. 02:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has A New China Bull Market Begun? [View article]
    The only reason that China was down last year, even in light of growth well above US/Europe and PEs below US/Europe (seems odd doesn't it?) is that everyone was convinced that China was just too risky. Right. And Europe (in recession again) and US (almost in recession) is a better place to invest?

    China Shanghai composite was the only down market last year even with enviable growth (albeit slower than hot as hell growth in the previous 3 years) and low equity prices. The Developed world's investment bankers and major media (esp WSJ) have been crapping on EMs over the least 3 years. They want your capital propping up debt ridden US and Europe, even when it's a fools game now. China and EMs may very well be the ONLY place to be for the next 3-5 years. Even without exports to the world, these economies have already passed the hurdle, can grow organically at growth rates the developed world can only envy from afar and simply don't need us nearly as much.

    Changing of the guard is in the works.
    Jan 20, 2013. 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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