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tr4head

tr4head
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  • Will Emerging Markets Save RadioShack? [View article]
    We live in absolutely interesting times when there is ZERO respect for what our fathers and their fathers etal did to build this country. This translates into the great business names and trademarks going broke, the young folks dismiss the great names in industry out of hand.

    Of course, there is still significant management culpability, the "asleep at the wheel" syndrome. But I am convinced that the new consumer has no allegiance to anything or anybody, it's whatever turns them on in the moment they are in. Kind of sad really because it creates a world of constant turmoil and flux.

    Radio shack WAS a great name because they sold stuff that people could not get elsewhere. They had people that were well trained and helped you out. Nobody wants help anymore. They think they know more than you do anyway, so who needs help? It's all the result of our ego boosting times. The new consumers really don't have a clue but think everyone else is clueless.
    Jan 16 05:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech (XLK) is the new defensive sector, its 14.8 PE ratio continuing to trail traditional cautious plays like telecom (IST), consumer staples (XLP), and utilities (XLU). At a lofty 22 PE ratio, telecom leads all S&P sectors - it's a pretty fancy multiple for a slow-growth sector, but investors are attracted by the lofty yield. The S&P (SPY) as a whole has creeped up to a 14.8 ratio. [View news story]
    Also, XLU PE is actually LOWER than XLK.
    Jan 16 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech (XLK) is the new defensive sector, its 14.8 PE ratio continuing to trail traditional cautious plays like telecom (IST), consumer staples (XLP), and utilities (XLU). At a lofty 22 PE ratio, telecom leads all S&P sectors - it's a pretty fancy multiple for a slow-growth sector, but investors are attracted by the lofty yield. The S&P (SPY) as a whole has creeped up to a 14.8 ratio. [View news story]
    Where thou goest APPL thou goest XLK. So, if you think APPL is a bargain, have at it - I believe Apple is about 20% weighted in the XLK or index. But if Apple continues to retreat, you would be better off getting a nice 4% yield in XLU. The selling of XLU has been pretty meek of late, like today.
    Jan 16 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Emerging Markets Save RadioShack? [View article]
    Wall Street and big mutual funds together sell Emerging Markets whenever US is down when the only thing they SHOULD be selling (that is if they actually want a growing economy) is the Developed World. No comparison on growth, check for yourself - US/Europe is treading water and near drowning in debt. We have just gone over 100% of debt/GDP for the first time ever in history (except WW2 where we had a reason to go into hock).

    EMs are a screaming buy. The manipulators can't hold EMs down for long. Just because we suck, doesn't mean everyone else sucks too.
    Jan 8 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hope For The Best... Plan For The Worst [View instapost]
    Excellent!

    My eggs are out of the US/Europe basket altogether. As I have posted elsewhere, never in my life have I seen such lies and market manipulation to keep capital in ever riskier US/European equities. Shameful.

    BTW - The title of your article is my tagline - I am a risk control consultant.
    Jan 6 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Out Of U.S. Stocks Now [View instapost]
    This was the first STOLEN election in US history.

    1. Fact. Romney secured LESS votes than McCain, who had minimal R support due to his love in with the leftist media. How could this be possible?
    2. Fact. With all the exposing of Obamas true politics over the last 4 years, the divisive racist beliefs, 2013 movie, etal it is almost impossible to consider that Ind. voters would sway to the far left and vote this man back in office. But they apparently moved to Obama's camp per 2012 election. How could this be possible?
    3. Fact. Obama was one of the only Presidents to have won election with LESS votes than the first time around. How could this be possible?
    4. Fact. By Election Day, the Obama team claimed to have registered 1.8 million new voters in the battleground states -- almost double the number the campaign registered four years earlier. Some counties had near 100% votes for Obama, statistically impossible.
    5. Fact. Nobody other than FDR won an election with the jobless rate of over 7.5%.

    Each state has a different voting system. Databases have proven to be reliably unreliable and security easily breeched. Do you know of anyone that can even remotely explain their states method of transferring and securing the election data? Why not? Cheating is as easy as cut, copy and paste.

    I may be a nasty battle to prove Chicago politics entered the election, but it must have and we need to expose it or the R will never win another election.
    Jan 6 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Divergence In Utilities [View article]
    Agree - I am about to do the same thing tho my timing won't be as good as yours. I was in XLU all last year, trying to be smart when the market continued dumb with QE risk. But, I was also long XLU 2 years prior when XLU did well, so still well in black (so far).

    I think the best call position now may be EMs and EM bonds. A put on Europe has to work at some point - how can Europe be well up for the year for Gods sake?? Going from deep bottoms tends to do that I guess, but much overshooting like US financial stocks.

    Been investing for 30 years and never seen as much market manipluation (even downright lies from WS about US/Europe prospects PLUS the QE booster shot). I liken this to the cornered wild animal - they will do anything to survive.
    Jan 6 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold investors are making a "major mistake" if they think the latest Fed minutes indicate the end of QE is likely by mid-year or even year’s end, Peter Schiff writes, seeing the recent decline in gold prices as a buying opportunity. The Fed's hands are tied, as any end to buying Treasurys or MBS would result in higher rates that might tip the economy back into recession. Gold finishes the day at $1,648.90, -1.5%[View news story]
    Absolutely correct. If interest rates rise to prevent total currency collapse (which some may actually want to goose economy, but will ultimately fail), we are in depression for probably 10 years. You think real estate was bad in 07 when long term rates were historically low? Wait until rates JUST go back to near normal levels.

    The problems in real estate which affect more people that any other sector is the best example of the house of cards that our economy has become. The two elephant's in the room are how Real Estate and Debt Financing will be affected by rising rates and is barely spoken about by Wall Street, so beware their abundant optimism about all things U.S. Seems to me that it can only get worse from here with practically no economist worth his salt saying we have the demographic or technological ability to grow our way out of this pickle.
    Jan 5 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold investors are making a "major mistake" if they think the latest Fed minutes indicate the end of QE is likely by mid-year or even year’s end, Peter Schiff writes, seeing the recent decline in gold prices as a buying opportunity. The Fed's hands are tied, as any end to buying Treasurys or MBS would result in higher rates that might tip the economy back into recession. Gold finishes the day at $1,648.90, -1.5%[View news story]
    Developed markets are completely overvalued. If recession occurs in Europe (already has) and we are barely in the black, forward PEs are not worth their weight in BS.

    EMs on the other hand are way below historical PE levels and are actually growing. I prefer to be in economies that are growing and will continue to grow.

    Developed worlds are treading water.
    Jan 4 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Americans are using more electronic gadgets, but electricity use is barely growing, posing a challenge for utility companies. PEG, NU and others are pouring money into high-voltage transmission lines, while others are slashing spending. EXC is cutting investment in nuclear plant expansions by $1B and in renewable energy projects by $1.3B as it tries to avoid a credit downgrade. [View news story]
    This story simply follows the financial news byline that wants to kill utilities as an investment and get you into ever more risky US equities. Not a wise move IMO.

    Safe haven utilities are the place to be in 2013 for US equities, tho they got slammed last year relative to other US sectors. I think the best returns in 2013 is where the growth is (not here or Europe): China, Emerging Markets and EM Bonds.

    The notion that US is "safe haven" for all things global has run its course I am afraid.
    Jan 3 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It paid to heed the many mid-year warnings of bubbly utility sector valuations. After a 9.5% decline since the beginning of August, the XLU will finish the year down more than 4%, totally offsetting its yield. The sector's overvaluation left it exposed to any sort of bad news, and it got it with Sandy and the post-election realization of maybe higher dividend tax rates. [View news story]
    People sold because they were told to get into risky investments. They were right to stay in and will be rewarded this year as US equities get slammed back to valuations matching economic malaise and continued lower than low interest rates. The only real money to be made in 13 will be in Emerging Markets equities and EM Bonds.

    Don't listen to Wall Street - they will do anything they can to keep you and your investable money in the Dow and Euro land.
    Dec 31 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold at $1,200 is among Saxo Bank's outrageous predictions for 2013. The reason: A strong economic recovery in the U.S. saps demand for the safe-haven investment. Eventually, central banks take advantage of the low price and buy (At the bottom? That would be a first). [View news story]
    No - but they are on board with the KoolAid plan to stop GOLD from rising. Saxo is an Internet (aka fake) online bank in Copenhagen. I suspect they are very supportive of keeping Europe afloat and rising Gold does not enter into their world view equation. See my prior post about the economically challenged Developed World.
    Dec 18 11:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold at $1,200 is among Saxo Bank's outrageous predictions for 2013. The reason: A strong economic recovery in the U.S. saps demand for the safe-haven investment. Eventually, central banks take advantage of the low price and buy (At the bottom? That would be a first). [View news story]
    This is simply part 2 or 3 of the plan to keep your capital in Developed World equities - money going to GOLD is not available for equities/zero sum. The central bankers know that their economies are unsustainable vs emerging markets and need your capital out of their equities and GOLD specifically because GOLD implies real inflation (not to mention middle east and far east wars on horizon). This would prematurely kill their Zero interest plans. Inflation and zero rates are mutually exclusive, yet its the life support that keeps us from economic disaster. GOLD going up also undermines strength of the dollar and the value of developed world currencies.

    As for Saxo? Well, maybe I can start a bank today and send them my opinion too. Here is it: Gold at $4700 oz by 2020. OK?
    Dec 18 08:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your Portfolio Tough Enough? [View article]
    Correction - EM equities as measured by VWO (VG Em Mkt Index) was higher than today from Q4 2010 thru Q1 2011 (not 12).
    Dec 10 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your Portfolio Tough Enough? [View article]
    Anything can happen, but I think EMs (equities and bonds) this time might not be killed as much from the coming US and European market declines. So, might actually be a more conservative part of your portfolio. BRICs can grow organically due to huge growth in a new middle class - this means less dependence on exports and therefore, the impact of another recession in the Developed World.

    EMs have not done nearly as well as the Developed World since the recession began. EMs are still down -50% from 2007 peak. DIA is down slightly over this period. EM equities as measured by VWO (VG Em Mkt Index) was higher than today from Q4 2010 thru Q1 2012 and has yet to get back to these levels (the second shot at EMs). In 2011 alone, EMs were down 40% while DJIA was up. This year, yes a little comeback but not nearly enough to cover prior year losses.

    So, I think since the recession, relative to the Developed World markets, EMs have been unfairly bashed. Add in QE1, 2 and 3 and as they say Down Under - Bob's your Uncle. This and the EM "fear factor" they have wrought has force fed capital flows to DOW and Europe to keep their heads above water. For how long?

    People will soon get smart and see the bargains in EMs notwithtanding the WS and Central Banker bashing that will continue unabated.

    http://yhoo.it/120Rdin;range=5y
    Dec 9 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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