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tr4head

tr4head
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  • Bernanke Surprises Markets With the Truth [View article]
    "Ben Bernanke has pinpointed the two crucial factors behind our economic disease: consumer confidence and the willingness to spend. Bravo!"

    I agree with your premise, but these critical factors are merely "symptoms" of the Jimmy-Carter like malaise we are in and does not get to the root of the problem. Americans have no shortage of confidence, this is our strength but also our demise. When we were first and second mortgaging our homes to the hilt and beyond our ability to pay this was not from a lack of confidence that all things go up forever (like our incomes) and we all live happily ever after. We were blind to our own greed, simply defined as unrestrained desires for stuff. Nobody likes more stuff than the US consumer, esp some of the lower income groups that see what others have and can't sleep at night without it so they mortgage our future in droves to buy it (houses) or lease it (cars).

    So, you think we just need more confidence and more spending? I submit that we had plenty of it pre-2007 and that is exactly what got us in trouble. What we need is fiscal restraint on ALL levels so we live within our means. That is the crucial factor. No more BLING.
    Jun 7, 2011. 05:17 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TGIF - Stop The Rally, We Want To Get Off! [View article]
    No doubt the market is toppy, but your left wing dribble really misses the reasons here and puts blame on the only people that tried to stop the mess. Liberals, presumably like you, wanted "economic justice" by getting poor, undereducated people with little skills or income (let alone jobs in some cases) into homes they could not possibly afford. Don't forget that the banks, for all their mismanagement, were forced to have a percentage of their portfolios in subprime loans (aka the poor downtrodden). This was nothing but a reparations play as Blacks were the biggest beneficiaries as they were the highest risk borrowers, as a class. I am in Atlanta, ground zero for the problem, and have seen it playout first hand.

    So be careful where you place blame here, there is plenty to go around but the main culprit was the Liberals in Washington. Banks did their bidding, or else. And, they still do what the Feds tell them, like rollover and play dead when told they have to refinance and forgive loan principal as part of the "settlement". What a fiasco.
    Mar 16, 2012. 10:36 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Real Crisis About to Begin? [View article]
    Not a contrarian here. Graham is right. But, what do you do? If you think that the hordes of new cash will cause inflation, and I certainly do, bet on commodities and maybe other inflation hedges like REITS. Of course, Bernake caused inflation will pull interest rates up will ultimately hurt real estate. Bernake says inflation only exists in your mind, its a "belief system". Right, and frogs can jump to the moon. I have a Put on the DOW for the near term.

    Another point, the WSJ just noted that the small investors burned by the last stock debacle are now wading back in, but you know how this works. The small guys are last to the dance and the first guys out with the losses. The little guy never wins.
    Feb 28, 2011. 10:13 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Trade: Prepare for the Plunge [View article]
    "I don’t accept that gold can continue to outperform in a clearly deflationary environment or that it's really a new currency and here’s why."

    You base this on what exactly - our provably phoney economic data? How many times do you have to see the GDP number backtracked to a more accurate but unahappy number. Economic data from CBO/BLS/Fed and other "govt" sources is produced by folks that want to support Bernake and our affirmative action President. Bernake himself proved the value of controlling the data re inflation - its only in your head, so don't worry.

    No, I think Gold will continue up, it should be $2400 if corrected for inflation (even phoney inflation) just to get back to the 80's peak. We have stagflation just like the 80's and you know what happened then - and I believe Gold has a way to go just to get back to these levels. I am not alone, JP Morgan says $2500 by year end.

    We have not even discussed the macro political/economic malaise and near financial collapse in the Western world. Given all this, I really think logic tells you that the US $$ is overvalued and Gold is undervalued.
    Aug 21, 2011. 09:48 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TGIF - Stop The Rally, We Want To Get Off! [View article]
    Agree. Bush was absolutely part of the problem and went along with the Dems here, it was highly unfortunate as we now know. No self respecting conservative wanted this (I never did), yet the Dems started the program and still want to continue the fiasco and keep people in homes they can't afford. That is why I blame the Dems. Goldman Sachs was riddled with Liberals in the upper ranks and they never complained either because they figured a way to make money from Govt stupidity.

    Its the common sense middle America folks that got screwed and we are now paying for the largesse bestowed on the rich and the poor by Washington. The so called "social responsiblity" that the author decries should start with the Govt. Where is the responsibility and "fairness' when the Govt makes resp. people that live within their means and don't need a new Jag in the drive to impress others paydown the loan balances of people that live beyond their means? That should make your blood boil, but that is exactly what the White House has required in their extortion (settlement) with the banks.

    And while we are at it, have you heard of any foreclosure by the big bad banks that was done on anyone that was current on their payments?
    Mar 16, 2012. 12:26 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Week Of Historic Economic Tragedy Ahead [View article]
    Great read James.

    Hyperinflation will happen worldwide - but it can't happen until all the money printed by central banks, given to the banking system to lend to the rest, finds its way into the market and starts chasing all those goods and services. Until now, with minimal bank lending going on because of what the recession has done to us with massive consumer and public debt, they have been able to keep the lid on pandoras box, patting themselves on the back for their genius. But this virtually guarantees the bad end game - how will they stop the banks from lending and the people from spending all of their cash horde once the spicket is opened and the cat is out of the bag? With inflation to deal with, more spending and more fuel for inflation justifiably happens and it will even more take years to unwind from this Great Recession.

    Human nature never changes, we want it now more than ever and the flood gates will open. This is a problem (or our negative attiribute per James) that virtually guarantees and nasty ending to the story.
    Dec 4, 2011. 10:46 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thank Peru's Reserves For Gold Below $2,000 [View article]
    Agree with Golden - this seems a classic bait and switch so people hear your Peruvian sales pitch. This stuff should be censored so we have objective and new information.
    Oct 3, 2011. 08:49 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Gold Performs During A Financial Crash [View article]
    I am still long in UGL/DGP - falling knifes should not be caught, especially with 2X the reaction.

    JP Morgan has not backed off their $2500 prediction as far as I know BY year end. This sounds crazy now, but I still think possible. All things are in place for Gold long term, as this author said and I agree. Not to panic, UGL will spring back a lot faster because of the leverage, but have to admit, losing 11% in one day will test your meddle.

    The US dollar is strong now, but the LT trend is what you have to focus on - downward dollar, growing emerging markets, inflation, Obama running things for another year.

    There, that made me feel better.
    Sep 23, 2011. 08:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Precious Metals Bubble Bursting? [View article]
    S&P will fall significantly more than GOLD when we wake from the dream of economic growth, no inflation and preposterously low interest rates. Stagflation will keep GOLD up and kill developed world equities that have no grounding in reality.
    Feb 20, 2013. 11:31 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Looks Terrible Part III: The Mass Capitulation Thesis [View article]
    These guys have one overriding goal - to keep the Developed World from shrinking (or collapsing if you have a mind to) and seeing the emerging world take charge. They can force people into US/Euro stocks and it will work for a while, but they are out of ammo. Our world is filled with takers and immoral players (signs of decline in any civilization), not to mention the lazy and uneducated masses that can't hold a candle to Asia and feel they are owed. These folks will need to be taken care of by a huge Govt beuracracy that is already at deaths door. This will all have far reaching consequences. Good luck with that.

    Best to bet using long term view - this means a collapsing dollar (huge for Gold) and focus on the worlds growing markets - the Fortune 1000 companies are investing over there, not here.
    Jul 9, 2012. 09:46 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TGIF - Stop The Rally, We Want To Get Off! [View article]
    D-VA. I can put up plenty of alternative articles from more conservative economists than your San Francisco "experts" that would differ but that would be a waste of time.

    Unless you are ethically bankrupt when you sign a contract to REPAY a loan that was NOT under duress or the point of a gun, you probably just ought to pay it back. As for comparisons to foreign countries, unlike other countries we in the US walk away from loans with hardly a care. In todays China, they actually require 20% DOWN PAYMENTS, so even with their growing bubble they won't come close to the kind of fiasco we have. The WSJ, to their credibility detriment, actually had articles suggesting when you are "Underwater" it may just be best to walk away from loans. They even published articles on how to apply for loan reductions. Banks screw us too. They aren't even foreclosing on low value vacated properties where people have walked because they have to take ownership and keep the place up.

    Welcome to our brave new world where we are never responsible for our actions. Banks (and consumers) are too big to fail. Make the responsible parties (most middle class taxpayers) pay for financial mismanagement. That's the difference between Liberals and Democrats. In the Liberal world, if I am irresponsible enough, I should get rewarded with loan forgiveness. Just one small problem. This creates a major moral hazard in the banking system and now who wants to loan to anybody when, you just might get sued if you force the borrower to pay! When all is said on both sides, I think that unless we let things run a natural course (with the pain which the Left abhors) and without new Govt fixes, this mess will go on and on until a crash that will make the Big D seem like a cyclical blip.
    Mar 16, 2012. 11:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Wall Street Trying to Force Us Out of the Markets? Here's How to Protect Yourself [View article]
    The problem with the small guys like us who look to insights from other folks like us (and a few big guys that fish here at Seeking A) is that we are absolutely awash in information, we panic: Hedge, buy puts, go long, go short, go cash, go to Australia.

    I do know that Wall St wants you to jump all over the place and they win when you do, no love lost here, and they don't care who is in the WH as we have seen. WS has almost turned fascist, just read the kinder and gentler WSJ these days and you know what I mean. Follow the money, this is dog eat dog and it will never change.

    How to make money and protect yourself? Nobody knows for certain but I do know that in the midst of all the instant info madness, we need to FORCE ourselves to stick with our common sense and not forget what history has already shown. We know that QE3 will force people into the markets and this will make stocks go up by default. So, when QE3 is announced again, you need to be in - but put in stop losses on everything you try because when the next downwinds hit, it will be worse than you can imagine. I am talking interest rates of 10% or even 20% to get inflation back in control. You think the real estate market is bad now, you ain't seen nothing yet.

    Be prepared, thats all - but use the next push higher to create some reserves because I think you will need it. Its all politics now and I just don't have faith that we have the steely backbones that our parents had to dig out of a crisis.
    Aug 12, 2011. 11:50 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Looks Terrible Part III: The Mass Capitulation Thesis [View article]
    I think the opposite, the 5 year chart for AU, shows a classic double bottom forming.

    Just goes to show how two reasonable people can see different things with the same "facts"!

    Based on the double bottom, for the technicians out there, Gold could be poised for a major upward turn, possibly to 2000 by years end.

    http://bit.ly/IB0T8d
    Jul 8, 2012. 10:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hyperinflation In America: The Dramatic End Of The Dollar? [View article]
    Nice, well thought out article. The biggest problem I see which you may have missed is that I think hyperinflation becomes more possible the longer that real inflation is bubbling around "undetected" for years and not reported. This is for a reason - everything collapses if we raise rates to fight the big I during a continued recession that really never went away. I for one don't believe that the recession was killed because of financial geniuses in the White House/Fed and companies cutting to the bone to profit from expense reduction.

    As Ben said, inflation is really only a "state of mind" (paraphrasing), so if you don't report it - like the tree falling in the woods - then it must not be there! So, we can safely cut rates to WW2 levels - no worries. Except of course massive, and less likely but more possible than you might think, Hyperinflation.
    Jun 1, 2012. 06:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TGIF - Stop The Rally, We Want To Get Off! [View article]
    D-Va. The issue is not the Gramm Leach Act. The issue was the CDOs and central banks establishing policy to get people in homes, all this pushed by the Community Reinvestment Act (Carter) and Congress, esp. Fannie and Freddies biggest supporter, Barney Frank.

    http://bit.ly/z2ctIU
    Mar 16, 2012. 08:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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