Molycorp Earnings Surprise: 'Pain Ahead' For Shorts? [View article]
The additional capex expenditures in question are for Phase 2 expansion, which CK says will only be executed as volume (market conditions) dictate. He is planning to go ahead with the Chlor-Alkali plant - or at least, so he said on the conference call.
Molycorp Earnings Surprise: 'Pain Ahead' For Shorts? [View article]
My point is, that contrary to the assertion in your article, he never said that completion of the Chlor-Alkali plant is conditional on business volume.
Molycorp Earnings Surprise: 'Pain Ahead' For Shorts? [View article]
You wrote "However, interim CEO Constantine Karayannopoulos was adamant that he would not continue expansion efforts - including the completion of its Chlor-Alkali plant - unless business volume justified it."
That is not what he said. He never gave any indication of conditionality on completing the Chlo-Alkali plant. He did say that upon demonstrating Phase 1 run rates, Molycorp may lower production again until the Chlor-Alkali plant is completed, if the Phase 1 run rate is cash flow negative.
Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
So, literally as stated, that is 4,631,000 metric tons, but clearly the utterance of "thousand" after four thousand six hundred thirty-one, was a misstatement. (verbal typo).
Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
Listen to the recorded call at http://bit.ly/13lkUy6 , which is linked from Molycorp's website. At 9:29, "four thousand six hundred thirty-one thousand metric tons". There is a pause between "thirty-one" and "thousand", so I can't guarantee there was no "post-processing" of the call by Molycorp.
As to Mark Smith's stated $2.75/kg, you are trying to make that look absurd. Far from it, as the actual figure he stated was a much more realistic $2.77/kg, LOL.
Molycorp: 4 Reasons To Take That $1B Intangible Asset Write-Off Now [View article]
Yes, you called the write-off a month ago. Obviously it is rather presumptuous, and indicative of an inflated view of self-importance, for you to state "Obviously Molycorp management and its auditors read them because that's where they got the idea from." It's inconceivable that they could have had the idea independently, and possibly in advance of, publication of your article, LOL.
Future Quite Bleak For Rare Earths Miner Molycorp [View article]
Per http://bit.ly/QsghLg, prepared remarks from Molycorp CEO Mark Smith on the Q2 2012 earnings conference call earlier this month:
<Regarding heavy rare earths> "At this point in time, we are likely pulling back the efforts at one of these sites, which is located within close proximity to Mountain Pass. While conclusive lab analytics remain pending, development stage drilling has provided field level information that directionally indicates a developable but a marginal deposit."
In other words, the "heavy" REE deposit near Mountain Pass which was much hyped last October was a bust. So Molycorp is left with the relatively small amount of heavies in the Mountain Pass deposit. If Molycorp is going to make the big bucks from Mountain Pass, it's going to have to be with Neodymium, and to a lesser extent with Praesodymium, and that's presuming prices of those hold up enough as Molycorp (and Lynas and ...) cranks up the output.
Future Quite Bleak For Rare Earths Miner Molycorp [View article]
Asles wrote "With today's announcement of Phoenix Phase 1 completion, and the ability to produce HREE ..."
There was no announcement of Phase 1 completion, nor really of the ability to produce HREE. The announcement pertained to the concentration capability, and did not address separation. Also left unsaid was how little of those heavies is in the Mountain Pass output.
Future Quite Bleak For Rare Earths Miner Molycorp [View article]
In http://bit.ly/NPcE1X , you wrote "Molycorp’s bid for Neo Material Technologies is an acquisition that makes a lot of sense for both parties and to the market in general." At the time of that analysis, you couldn't see, as stated in this article "MCP embarked on an expensive acquisition in Canada in a new company renamed Molycorp Canada. This acquisition saddled the company with heavy debts, and it was also burdened with legacy debts that were on the balance sheet of its newly acquired company; namely, $230 million in convertible notes."
It appears that you are just a superficial momentum analyst.
Molycorp Still Not Very Attractive, Even After Massive Plunge [View article]
If you are going to properly analyze MCP, you need to use the current share count and debt, reflecting the share issuance, cash usage, and debt issuance in conjunction with the Neo Materials acquisition last month. Your share count figure, for instance, is based on Molycorp's 2012 Q1 10Q filing (what Yahoo Finance uses), and has not been updated for the share issuance.
Molycorp: Stock At An All-Time Low, With Potential At An All-Time High [View article]
Galileo,
With a year of college under your belt, have you learned any critical thinking skills?
Can you now recognize how extrapolating continuation of a bubble, in fact after it had recently topped and started reversing, was not a "conservative" assumption from the view point of the sales prices Molycorp could achieve? Perhaps a wildly optimistic assumption, but hardly a conservative one.
Specifically, in http://seekingalpha.co... , you wrote "If we assume that Molycorp's average sale price of rare earths will rise 45% per quarter for the remainder of 2011 (less than half of the growth we saw from Q1 to Q2, in other words a relatively conservative estimate) then Molycorp would theoretically see average sale prices of $104.55/kg and $151.59/kg for quarters 3 and 4." As the French would say "incroyable".
Molycorp: Don't Miss This Gold Rush [View article]
You may wind up making a lot of money on out of the money MCP calls, but to say that they are low risk is absurd. You could easily lose your entire "investment" in such calls.
Molycorp: Don't Miss This Gold Rush [View article]
MCP is not a moly play at all, it is not even in that business. The original (old) Molycorp was in the molybdenum business (hence the name), and later added rare earths. The current Molycorp formed in 2008 did not include the former molybdenum operations.
Molycorp Earnings Surprise: 'Pain Ahead' For Shorts? [View article]
Molycorp Earnings Surprise: 'Pain Ahead' For Shorts? [View article]
Molycorp Earnings Surprise: 'Pain Ahead' For Shorts? [View article]
That is not what he said. He never gave any indication of conditionality on completing the Chlo-Alkali plant. He did say that upon demonstrating Phase 1 run rates, Molycorp may lower production again until the Chlor-Alkali plant is completed, if the Phase 1 run rate is cash flow negative.
Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
As to Mark Smith's stated $2.75/kg, you are trying to make that look absurd. Far from it, as the actual figure he stated was a much more realistic $2.77/kg, LOL.
Molycorp: 4 Reasons To Take That $1B Intangible Asset Write-Off Now [View article]
Future Quite Bleak For Rare Earths Miner Molycorp [View article]
<Regarding heavy rare earths> "At this point in time, we are likely pulling back the efforts at one of these sites, which is located within close proximity to Mountain Pass. While conclusive lab analytics remain pending, development stage drilling has provided field level information that directionally indicates a developable but a marginal deposit."
In other words, the "heavy" REE deposit near Mountain Pass which was much hyped last October was a bust. So Molycorp is left with the relatively small amount of heavies in the Mountain Pass deposit. If Molycorp is going to make the big bucks from Mountain Pass, it's going to have to be with Neodymium, and to a lesser extent with Praesodymium, and that's presuming prices of those hold up enough as Molycorp (and Lynas and ...) cranks up the output.
Future Quite Bleak For Rare Earths Miner Molycorp [View article]
There was no announcement of Phase 1 completion, nor really of the ability to produce HREE. The announcement pertained to the concentration capability, and did not address separation. Also left unsaid was how little of those heavies is in the Mountain Pass output.
Future Quite Bleak For Rare Earths Miner Molycorp [View article]
It appears that you are just a superficial momentum analyst.
Molycorp Still Not Very Attractive, Even After Massive Plunge [View article]
Molycorp Still Not Very Attractive, Even After Massive Plunge [View article]
Molycorp: Stock At An All-Time Low, With Potential At An All-Time High [View article]
With a year of college under your belt, have you learned any critical thinking skills?
Can you now recognize how extrapolating continuation of a bubble, in fact after it had recently topped and started reversing, was not a "conservative" assumption from the view point of the sales prices Molycorp could achieve? Perhaps a wildly optimistic assumption, but hardly a conservative one.
Specifically, in http://seekingalpha.co... , you wrote "If we assume that Molycorp's average sale price of rare earths will rise 45% per quarter for the remainder of 2011 (less than half of the growth we saw from Q1 to Q2, in other words a relatively conservative estimate) then Molycorp would theoretically see average sale prices of $104.55/kg and $151.59/kg for quarters 3 and 4." As the French would say "incroyable".
Molycorp: Don't Miss This Gold Rush [View article]
Molycorp: Don't Miss This Gold Rush [View article]
Molycorp: Don't Miss This Gold Rush [View article]