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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, January 11, 2012 [View instapost]
    LYSDY is trading at a significant premium ($.05 on the ask) to LYSCF. I am completely baffled as to why this is occurring when the norm is the opposite. I know DY is the direct ADR so that is what I hold...

    Jan 20, 2012. 02:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, January 11, 2012 [View instapost]
    Totally agree T.B., the demand for new REE uses is currently being determined by supply. A lack of a consistent, reliable supply is deterring the commitment of the end users to create new applications for the REE's

    I like to use Erbium as an example. It has characteristics that actually amplify optical waves when used in fiber optic transmission cable use in the Internet backbone. The future use of Er is critical to companies like Finisar, Oclaro JDU and many others.

    Your point that the use of RE's in Semiconductor's is spot on. I have read several white papers discussing this very issue and included a link below. I follow the Semi industry quite closely and the most exciting development is the use of Europium doped Gallium Nitride substrates. The use is rising exponentially. As to your point, grams of these element will be needed but with a kilo of Eu current selling at $4k it doesn't take long to build a nice profit.

    Another exciting use being developed by the Chinese is the use of RE's as an alloy in rails steels. It is still in the development stage but when the technology is fully developed the use of REE's as a rail steel alloy will be substantial.
    Jan 19, 2012. 03:26 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, January 11, 2012 [View instapost]
    ungawah, another encouraging comment from Anwar...

    "Anwar has called for measures to open up Malaysia’s economy to foreign investors through greater privatisation deals and ending government monopolies and subsidies in certain sectors such as car manufacturing and sugar production, FT reported"
    Jan 13, 2012. 01:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, January 3, 2012 [View instapost]
    Congrats to GWM long's…

    It would appear that the new entity GWGQD is going to construct the separation facility but does anyone know any details on the concentration process?

    Also it will be very interesting to see just what type of separation facility will be constructed. It would appear that $57m would be the approximate value of capital contributed by GQW to finalize the agreement. This number represents 25% of the ~ $230m enterprise value.

    It will be interesting to see the next financial statements to see just what the contribution is… Anyway my hat off to the longs that hung in there, at the very least we still have a very interesting story going forward...
    Jan 10, 2012. 04:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, January 3, 2012 [View instapost]
    I am getting the impression that the Anwar verdict has had a greater affect on the SP than most investors realize. It was a lose/lose situation to begin with. The fact that the leader of the opposition was the central figure in the whole affair, politically charged the environment to a point to where there is no good outcome for Malaysia as a whole.

    The not guilty verdict came as a surprise and some camps have this as a good thing in that it will minimize the oppositions claim that the accusations were political but IMO it will no where near completely quell the feelings resulting from the not guilty verdict. BTW I don't mean to minimize the fact an innocent man was exonerated, I have no basis to judge his guilt or innocence and my comments are business based opinions only.

    It will be interesting to see just what will come out of this verdict with respect to the upcoming elections. Najib has the ability to delay the elections until late 2012 and some speculate he may just do that to allow the economy to improve and gain traction for the national elections.

    What is really important at this point is to try and get the Rakyat on board with Lynas as a valuable asset for Malaysia. If the BN party, who is seen as the economically progressive party, can convince the Malaysian populous that Lynas is good for the economic climate then it may follow that the Rakyat and, yes, Fuziah may jump on board to give a "progressive" front to their own party. IMO this is the tact NC must pursue to put Lynas on both parties dance card.

    With respect to Fuziah, it is important that it is MP Fuziah (member of parliament) and not (Prime Minister) Fuziah. In the scheme of things, LAMP will be proven safe and operationally successful. IMO it will also be see as a potential cash cow that probably should use some of the substantial anticipated profits to pay taxes and win the much needed "affection" of the Pahang citizens. Lynas can easily afford to do this while retaining it's tremendous profitability.

    In any event, the recent price action is way overblown, all is not lost as the price may seem to indicate and Lynas with a market cap of $1.7b is a bargain in any country. The fact remains that this is a company that is quick on it's feet and probably has the political savvy to negotiate many headwinds, like most major projects during startup.
    Jan 9, 2012. 01:53 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, January 3, 2012 [View instapost]
    A very important decision is just about to take place in the Malaysian courts on the 9th. It is a verdict in the Anwar sodomy trial. Anwar is the opposition leader of the Rakyat party (i.e. Fuziah) and it is widely accepted that he will be found guilty. IMO it is the length of his sentence that will be interesting.

    Anwar faces up to 20 years for a guilty verdict but it would be much better if for Najib and the Nationals to see a sentence of like 2 years or so just to put the Rakyat on the ropes and allow an immediate election (February)…

    From the Asian Pacific Diplomat;

    "The decision is also likely to form the backdrop for an early election after more than a year of political manoeuvring by the United Malays National Organization (UMNO).

    Insiders say an election could be called for February, although the next poll isn't due till 2013."

    In any event this is extremely important for LYC in that it will be instrumental in determine the future political climate…
    Jan 8, 2012. 01:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, January 3, 2012 [View instapost]
    Has an agreement already been reached? Interview is dated Jan 3 around noon. I know the interview is old but I haven't seen much in the way of comments on this particular claim… Could it be responsible for the recent pps action? Comments?

    New Rare Earth Metal Deposits in 2012: Jon Hykawy (Byron Capital)

    An exact quote, maybe a slip up?...

    "(GQD) (which GWG has partnered with on a solvent extraction joint venture)."

    Full context and link...

    TCMR: In a Dec. 1 research report on Great Western, you noted that the company's latest round of financing was not sufficient to complete mine construction and required processing plants. However, you expect additional non-dilutive financing. What form will that financing likely take?

    JH: There are two possibilities. GWG's prospective partner, Aichi Steel of the Toyota Group, may provide financing in the form of debt. There's also the prospect for non-dilutive financing in the form of offtake agreements-cash payments up front for guaranteed supplies of material and even perhaps material at a discount later.

    TCMR: Who are the likely players to come forward for those agreements?

    JH: It could be an entity like Toyota Tsusho that will take the material and sell it within the Toyota group and to outside entities. It could be a group like Albemarle or a BASF, which needs lanthanum and cerium for its catalytic materials, but have been buying those materials from Ganzhou Qiandong Rare Earth Group Co. Ltd. (GQD) (which GWG has partnered with on a solvent extraction joint venture). Knowing that the quality of material out of GWG will be the quality of material that GQD has always produced, there may be a number of offtake partners emerging soon."
    Jan 4, 2012. 08:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
    Hi Dallas, you are correct in that the book value of a company is simply the value of it's assets without considering intangible factors. Book is the liquidating value of a company if all of the assets are sold and the remaining cash is distributed to the investors.

    My point is that it appears that operating cash (and capital project development) is hindered by what is shown on the last 10q and without a cash infusion the book could possibly come into play.

    With respect to LCM, it is a very small part of GWM and even at full production, currently puts REVENUES at $18m and net profit at (a generous) $4m. Even with doubling this number accounting for the new furnace would give $8m in net profit. I think this would be a pie in the sky number but even so it is insignificant when looking at developing a new concentration plant (not to mention a separation facility).

    Also I would really like to hear more from the design outfit (DRA) that is supposedly developing a comprehensive design for Steen...

    July 27, 2011… (GWM) is pleased to announce that it has contracted DRA Mineral Projects (Pty) Ltd. (“DRA”) of South Africa… for the detailed design of the Steenkampskraal processing plant.

    The processing plant… (will) be located at the Steenkampskraal mine site. The plant detailed design project is expected to be completed by December 2011.

    It would appear that this is another missed date and without such a plan it will be difficult going forward with Steen...
    Dec 30, 2011. 02:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
    I am following this Anwar trial with great interest. As I said, it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that the will be convicted. IMO it will be the sentence he is handed that will determine just how it will be taken by the opposition. He can get up to 20 years which may piss off the opposition to claim he was railroaded. I am hopping for a 2 year prison sentence which will both take him out of circulation for the next elections and diminish the Rakyat presence in Malaysia as a whole. Keep an eye on this, it is a big picture issue in Malaysia…
    Dec 29, 2011. 09:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
    Hi Chi and Matt, my take on a GWM buyout is as follows...

    I think Chi's numbers are closer to the actual buyout value of GWM... Generally a buyout number begins with a book value or basically the shareholders equity value, which takes the value of all of the assets minus all of the liabilities.

    In the case of GWM this is ~$65m divided by ~390m shares. This works out to a book of ~$.17/share. This number includes all assets including the mineral properties, LCM and other tangible and intangibles.

    While this number may seem small with an asset like LCM remember that LCM had gross revenues of $18m and a generous net profit of $4m. This works out to be a net profit of ~ $.01 share. So, according to the numbers, LCM is little in terms of PP&A (plant, property and equipment), revenues and profit. (Note PP&E is original asset cost minus depreciation)...

    Of course, book takes into consideration all tangible assets and this is where the $.17 per share book number is derived (from the mineral property or rights assessment, down to the furniture)... As I noted previously, the $2.5m goodwill number is troublesome and represents ~4% of Total Assets...

    Also, the longer GWM goes without a JV or TOA the lower the current assets will go (not including the $4m/annum LCM profit)... Depending on the current cash burn the bottom may be reached quickly and if no buyer is found a reorganization may be in order which could have potential bad results for the shareholder…

    Note that the book value is totally independent from the share price, it is a valuation of the asset as it stands on the ground...

    That said, it is possible for some solution to these problems may come forth and the significant cash infusion virtually everyone admits needs to occur, just may happen...

    However, if I were looking to acquire GWM in a JV or some other agreement, I would be hard pressed to make any investment that would result in more than the $.17 per share book value currently indicated by the latest GWM balance sheet...

    Anyway, all of my calculations are from the latest 10q linked below... JMHO...
    Dec 29, 2011. 02:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
    I personally think that the most important decision concerning the LAMP approval will come on January 9 of 2012. This is the day that the Malaysian courts are expected to deliver a verdict on the guilt or innocence of Malaysia's opposition figurehead Anwar Ibrahim. The trial is over charges that allege Anwar participated in acts of Sodomy which is illegal in Malaysia and carries severe penalties. Appparently there is significant DNA evidence and it is also the second time Anwar has been tried on sodomy charges. He was convicted on the earlier charges and spent 6 years in jail before that verdict was overturned. He faces up to 20 years on the new charges.

    Anwar's is viewed as the most credible challenge to Najib in the next election and is the leader of the Pakatan Rakyat part (same party as Fuziah)... Anwar was the former deputy prime minister he claims this trial is a repeat of a political conspiracy. A guilty verdict probably wil anger his supporters and cause a spike in political tensions. 

    From what I am reading, most people seem to think he will be found guilty Anwar himself was quoted as saying "It doesn't make a difference -- in jail or outside, I will fight for justice"

    In any event any guilty charge may disorganize the political structure of the opposition and could trigger Najib to call for immediate elections. He has the right to call for elections at any time between every 4 and 5 years with that date being 2013.

    Personally I think Najib will wait until the end of the year to let his latest economic stimulus efforts take affect but this is my opinion only...
    Dec 28, 2011. 02:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
    Don't think that this has been posted, another one of Chi's positive stories :c)
    Dec 23, 2011. 01:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
    It would appear that 240,000 tpa (mined) would be a (final product) TREO recovery of 9.2%

    Also it would appear that Sojitz is basically blessing the development of Phase 2 with little concern for LAMP approval. I would think that if there was any doubt they would have held off until solid POL news was released… JMO...
    Dec 23, 2011. 01:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
    Here it is Chi, another positive Bernama story (actually more color on your post)…

    KUALA LUMPUR: To help fuel Malaysia's drive to achieve high income status by 2020, Malaysia needs to discover and venture into new economic growth areas.

    And rare earth could be the country's new growth area, said Dr Ahmad Ibrahim, Chief Executive Officer of the Academic of Sciences Malaysia (ASM).

    "Our oil, land and other reserves are depleting, so we need to look for new opportunities and this is one of it," he told reporters after the launch of a report titled "Rare Earth Industries: Moving Malaysia's Green Economy Forward" here today.

    He said the entire scale of high-tech industries depended on a sustainable supply of rare earth elements. Rare earth is widely used in manufacturing of an extensive range of downstream products which find wide applications in such industries including aerospace, consumer electronics, automotive and telecommunications.

    "If Malaysia is serious about moving into this industry, we need to partner with a lot of businesses and companies which are already in the market because they have access and technology to the market.

    "We cannot do this alone," he said.

    Ahmad said that by venturing into a partnership, it could help Malaysia build its own human capital, technology and resources to be one of the leading players in the industry.

    Demand would grow for rare earth minerals and Malaysia should not just focus on the low value from upstream but also to venture further into the downstream as it would help to foster the nation's economy, he said.

    At present, Malaysia has 30,000 tonnes of rare earth reserves coming from the residual tin deposits. - BERNAMA
    Dec 21, 2011. 12:14 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 19, 2011 [View instapost]
    Great article Chi, it really seems to me that the momentum behind LAMP has clearly shifted to the Lynas side and Malaysian insiders are actually looking at LAMP as the asset it really is...
    Dec 20, 2011. 12:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment