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Having always been a learning machine, I speak five languages, have worked as a sales agent, project manager, translator, computer consultant, software engineer, built a house with my own hands, published books and essays on literature, philosophy and art, have written for magazines of various kinds in different countries.
After retiring early in 2004, little by little, I have become a fund manager for some friends and myself, following the principles of value investing laid out by Benjamin Graham, Phil Fisher, Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett. You can read about my thoughts on a suitable portfolio structure for early retirees here.
My articles should not be considered to be any kind of investment advice. What suits me well is not necessarily good for others, as successful investing is somewhat like a marriage: If only one is perfect, the marriage won’t work. So please do your own research and remember Benjamin Graham's advice: “The investor’s chief problem — and even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself.”
I run a very concentrated portfolio with 10-15 positions and invest for the long term. As of 12/2016, my largest position is Theravance Biopharma (TBPH), a company I had intensively and extensively researched long before any sell-side analyst noticed the stock. You can find my early work on TBPH on this site and my comprehensive in-depth research reports on all important pipeline assets here. I correctly predicted the evolution of the new GOLD guidelines for COPD, the sales trajectory of Vibativ and GSK's new Ellipta product range. My reports have been far ahead (in terms of depth, scope and reliability) of all sell-side work on TBPH. That said, I obviously make mistakes as well, although I've yet to make one that costs me serious money.
Other long-time favorites of mine are DaVita (DVA), IBM and a few European small caps which I have also partly covered on Seeking Alpha, e.g. Admiral (AMIGF), Fuchs Petrolub (FUPEF).
Michael A. Gayed, CFA, winner of the 2016 Dow Award and 2015 NAAIM Wagner Award, is chief investment strategist and co-portfolio manager at Pension Partners, LLC., an investment advisor which manages mutual funds and separate accounts according to its ATAC strategies. Prior to this role, Gayed served as a portfolio manager for a large international investment group, trading long/short investment ideas in an effort to capture excess returns. From 2004 to 2008, Gayed was a strategist at AmeriCap Advisers LLC, a registered investment advisory firm that managed equity portfolios for large institutional clients. In 2007, he launched his own long/short hedge fund, using various trading strategies focused on taking advantage of stock market anomalies. Follow him on Twitter @pensionpartners and YouTube youtube.com/pensionpartners. He has re-released his father's 1990 book Intermarket Analysis and Investing, now available on Amazon.com.
I only look at stocks that have the possibility to double over a twelve month period and stocks in which the risk/reward ratio payout is high. In addition I focus on swing trade opportunities.
I focus more on valuations and risk/reward metrics as opposed to what make companies tick.
I have been a professional investor for over 20 years and during the past several years an economics analyst and financial writer for capital.gr, the biggest economic news portal in Greece.
I have managed money from time to time and have also done some seed venture capital projects in the past.
Craig Brockie is a contrarian investment advisor in Beverly Hills, who provides wealth management services to high net worth clients. He prefers to bill his clients solely based on performance, getting paid only for results.
Background: Former securities analyst and brokerage firm owner and
Currently doing investment strategy consulting for institutional investors
Undergraduate degree from Northwestern, Economics
Taught Advanced Financial Markets Class at a University in Chicago
In to Yoga.
Steven Jon Kaplan began TrueContrarian.com in August 1996 as a weekly blog and later expanded this to a daily newsletter with intraday updates in February 2006. Steve provides financial consulting which emphasizes long-term tax and investment planning. He has been trading his own account, and those of family and close friends, since 1981, and handles separately managed accounts for qualified clients. As a registered investment advisor, Steve charges a 20% performance fee on net profits and zero management fees. He has been quoted in Barron's, Market Watch, Dow Jones Newswires, Seeking Alpha, and Kitco. Steve has appeared on Market Watch cable TV with Stacey Delo and was interviewed by Alisa Parenti on Bloomberg. Since 2010, Danielle Kerani Oberdier has served as Steve's business associate.
Steve enjoys running with the New York Road Runners, composing and performing on piano and voice, writing stories, and traveling to unique places. He enjoys hearing from anyone about a wide range of topics, so please let him know what you think about the web site or whatever is on your mind. You can find his music at http://www.reverbnation.com/stevenjonkaplan .
"Truly conservative actions arise from intelligent hypotheses, correct facts and sound reasoning." - Warren Buffett January 18th 1965.
Furbonacci is an equity research collaborative in Cranston, RI. We run fundamental value screens followed by technical screens to identify equities that may be at significant turning points. Fundamental research is primarily done by reading past annual reports and quarterly statements. Technical analysis is performed on multiple time frames to identify key support and resistance levels, trends and potential turning points. Co-founder Joseph Agresti graduated with a degree in Finance from the University of Connecticut and was employed in 2007-2008 as a prop trader for Chimera Securities in Boston, MA. Co-founder Carl Jetty has an undergraduate degree in Applied Economics from the University of Rhode Island, where his passion for Technical Analysis was first discovered and developed.
Kenneth S. Hackel C.F.A., Biography
Kenneth S. Hackel is founder and President of CT Capital LLC, an institutional investment advisory firm specializing in the analysis of corporate cash flow and cost of capital in investment decision making. Until 1996, he was President of Systematic Financial Management Inc., (SFM) a multi-billion dollar institutional investment firm he conceived and founded in 1982. At SFM, Kenneth successfully implemented his free cash flow-based investment philosophy in managing funds for institutional investors across multiple US equity investment disciplines.
Kenneth's upcoming book, "Security Valuation and Risk Analysis: Assessing Value in Investment Decision-Making", to be published by McGraw Hill later this November, significantly extends the theories and analysis presented in his earlier book, "Cash Flow and Security Analysis," 2nd edition (McGraw Hill, 1995). His new book provides extensive analysis and discussion of innovative methods for cost of capital and return on invested capital that are not dependent upon generally accepted accounting principles or market-derived measures of stock volatility. Instead, the models are based on cash flows and extensive credit analysis. To this end, half the book is devoted to the understanding of cash flow; half to cost of capital, as risk to cash flows are meticulously expounded upon. The analysis of risk represents, according to Mr. Hackel, the single most important under-explored factor in security analysis and the primary reason for investor disappointment of their investment returns.
He posits that using fundamental factors to calculate cost of equity capital (reflecting a company's operating and financial risk, capital structure, and miscellaneous intrinsic items) and return on invested capital based upon free cash flow generation (in lieu of traditional earnings or EBITDA-based measures) more accurately reflect the underlying financial profitability and stability of a firm, its growth potential and value enhancement level. Kenneth believes that while beta measures stock volatility, it is, at best, a very loose surrogate for financial health. Consequently, using a more robust discount rate (to model and discount free cash flows) to arrive at 'fair value' will provide a more accurate comparison to current valuation levels, thus leading to more accurate trading signals. He illustrates the use of a comprehensive cost of capital credit worksheet utilizing 50+ credit variables in place of the popular Capital Asset Pricing Model in divining an entity's true cost of equity, which results in superior investment performance with considerably lower risk.
Ken is the author of many articles on security valuation and analysis, and pioneered the use of adding a percentage of excess corporate expenditures to free cash flow. He is internationally recognized as a leading expert in valuation analysis, having also created the use of free cash flow in lieu of EBITDA in ROIC analysis. EBITDA, he explains, is a deficient metric, in many respects.
Ken is accepted to be the sole investment advisor in US equity mutual fund history to take over management of the worst performing mutual fund, and in a single year turn it into the best performing fund.
With over 35 years of investment experience, he has consulted on mergers and acquisitions, including fairness opinions. His work has been published in leading academic journals as well as leading financial news media, and is quoted worldwide. He is a graduate of City College of New York and earned his MBA (Finance) from Baruch College.
His blog may be read at www.credittrends.com and his twitter @credittrends.
Stone Fox Capital Advisors is a registered investment advisor founded in 2010. The firm offers portfolio management with a focus on opportunistic stocks providing secular growth trends at an affordable value. An emphasis is placed on fundamental analysis though charts are used for timing entry and exit points.
Mark Holder graduated from the University of Tulsa with a double major in accounting & finance. He's been interested in the stock market since college and began managing investments for friends and family more than 20 years ago. Mark has his Series 65 and is also a CPA.
Invest with Stone Fox Capital's model portfolios on Covestor.com as he makes real time trades. Covestor also allows followers to duplicate the model portfolio in their own brokerage accounts. You can find the portfolio and more details here:
Follow Mark on twitter: @stonefoxcapital
Jonathan Goldberg holds an MBA from the Richard Ivey School of Business at the University of Western Ontario. He has a passion for finance and value investing in particular. Other interests include motorcycles, photography, reading (non-fiction), staying fit, surfing and traveling.
Yale Bock is the President of Y H & C Investments, a Registered Investment Adviser based in Las Vegas, NV. My educational background is a B.A. in Economics from UC-Irvine, a MBA from UC-Irvine, and have earned the right to use the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. I have been managing clients money for about 7 years and my own money for over 20 years. I write about a variety of undervalued companies on Seeking Alpha. I enjoy talking with people about investments, especially stocks, so if you have any questions or comments, please send me an email at email@example.com. In addition, if you would like to join my mailing list to get the free monthly newsletter and access to blog posts, please go to www.y-hc.com and sign up!!! Thank you for taking the time to find out about me.
Friedrich is the name given to our algorithm for analyzing companies that trade on the global stock markets. In creating Friedrich we concentrated on analyzing each company’s Main Street operations through various established ratios, along with our own unique ratios that we developed over the last 30 years. What we came up with is a final "Main Street" price per share based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which is a framework of accounting standards, rules and procedures defined by the professional accounting industry, which has been adopted by nearly all publicly traded U.S. companies. We feel that our Main Street price result is what each company would need to trade at in order to be attractive to a businessperson on Main Street looking to buy at a bargain.
Since the only constant in the universe is change, the results for each company fluctuate by varying degrees. No company is an island unto itself, but each operates in a world of constant change and at times in areas where Chaos is the norm. By analyzing a company’s Main Street operations over time, Friedrich is able to give the potential investor a decade long analysis (opinion) as well as offering a Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) analysis (opinion), as well. Thus our readers will not only get as close to a real time view of operations on Main Street as is possible, but then can measure the consistency of the company’s operations over time to determine if s/he should invest or not.
Through our Friedrich algorithm we can analyze ten years of Balance Sheet, Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement data for each company all at once and generate one final result in seconds. Friedrich was designed to be ultra-conservative and thus will cut zero slack to any company under analysis and will do so with zero emotion. Companies must be exceptional in order to get an attractive Main Street valuation and the ideal investments according to our backtesting are the ones that have been consistent over time.
By being so ultra conservative Friedrich is designed to identify bargains that Wall Street investors may have overlooked. Companies shares may trade on the stock market but the companies themselves operate on Main Street, so Friedrich is designed to generate a Main Street price per share first and only then does he go to Wall Street and see the price for which Benjamin Graham’s “Mr. Market” is offering the shares.
Nigam Arora is an engineer and nuclear physicist by background, has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies, has been involved in over 50 ventures, is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management, is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method to profit from change in trading and investing.
Theory ZYX of Successful Change
Nigam Arora is the original developer of Theory ZYX. He is also the author of the book Theory ZYX – A Definitive Guide to Reach the Next Level.
The United States Patent and Trademark Office has awarded Nigam Arora 26 patent claims on Theory ZYX.
Necessity is the mother of invention. Upon concluding that no rigorous analytical methodology existed to help him successfully create and manage change in one of his ventures, he rolled up his sleeves and plunged into action. Thus, Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management was born.
Most change management experts primarily come from the background of academia and psychology. Nigam has added a new dimension to the state-of-the-art change management based on his extensive change experience in business, operations, and technology.
Theory ZYX has been applied to strategy development,merger integration, vision development, accelerating innovation, cost reduction, increasing revenues and culture change.
The ZYX Change Method of Investing and Trading
Upon requests to adapt Theory ZYX of Change to help manage investments, Nigam developed the ZYX Method for Profiting from Change in Investing and Trading taking advantage of his over two decades of experience in developing technical, quantitative, and fundamental models as well as implementing gray boxes* to execute the models in a variety of market conditions.
Since 2007, Nigam has been illustrating the power of the ZYX Change Method by providing concise actionable calls on this site. The Arora Report blog focuses on providing clear signals and being concise about the trigger event which is one of the six screens of the ZYX Change Method.
Conceiving and executing change for the better has been a way of life for Nigam Arora.His passion for innovations in business and technology led to his founding of two of the fastest growing (Inc. 500) companies and over 50 other ventures. Action Systems, Inc., a company he founded, was ranked the 29th fastest growing Inc. 500 company. This company grew by capturing over 60% of the market share in the startup of Radiation Monitoring Systems to nuclear power plants and diversifying into a variety of energy projects.
He also founded Action Systems Technologies, Inc. that was ranked the 103rd fastest growing Inc. 500 company. The company grew by providing innovative technology services to Department of Defense, Department of Energy, Aerospace, Automotive, Defense, Distribution, Electronics, Energy, Food, Healthcare Information Technology, Logistics, Manufacturing and Mining industries.
He was the CEO of KnowledgeAZ, Inc., which developed software for eCommerce, logistics, supply chain and asset management.
He was the CEO of Utility Frontier, Inc., which was a Business-to-Business Exchange for 369 municipalities.
Other companies he founded included a provider of printed circuit boards to the computer and electronics industries, a manufacturer of computer networking hardware, a manufacturer of instruments for the energy industry, a solar power producer, a software developer for warehousing and material tracking, a software developer for plant maintenance, a change management consulting firm, and a provider of semiconductor testing services to automotive and defense industries.
Early Years in USA
Nigam graduated with a M.S. in Electrical Engineering from the University of Kansas in less than one year .with a GPA of 3.94/4.00 Then he studied Marketing and Finance in an MBA program at Indiana University.
He developed an imaging system on a NASA funded project for the Center for Research, Inc.
Nigam led the development of one of the first automated computerized plant wide Radiation Monitoring and Control Systems for commercial nuclear power plants. He was also the first to discover and develop methods of accurately measuring certain nuclear isotopes in power plants. He was in charge of Engineering at NMC.
Early Years in India
Nigam Arora received a B.S. in Electronics Engineering from Punjab Engineering College with High Honors when he had just turned 20. He developed the first digital Phase Meter in India. He was selected in a program of the Indian Air Force under which he learned about electronics aboard fighter aircraft. He also worked on research at Central Scientific Instruments Organization.