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  • Canaccord expects a 2015 rebound for 3D printing stocks [View news story]
    Going into year-end tax loss selling furthered the oversold condition. Shorts holding on to gains for similar tax purposes. Don't fall in love with your up/down position, but right now with 37M shares short the big dogs will start heading for the doors and taking profits in 2015 - they got a win and don't need to hope for more gains. Today is a small glimpse of what will happen when that door gets crowded. And there's a whole other bunch of hedgies out there that will feed on the shorts ... they're exposed. Near term this goes up and fast. Long via recent short puts.
    Dec 26, 2014. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Rumors Are Swirling [View article]
    Check out pricing model with target of $5
    Jul 8, 2012. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Rumors Are Swirling [View article]
    Check out this price model with a target of $5
    Jul 8, 2012. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading XenoPort's PDUFA Event [View article]
    Thanks Tony. The part I was certainly not aware of was the broker automatically closing out the ITM 8/9 call spread. I like to admit what I don't know - allows for continued learning :)
    Mar 31, 2011. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading XenoPort's PDUFA Event [View article]

    I was reviewing this trade and yes a more complex strategy than I am use to. Let's say the stock is trading at $10 near expiration. How is this trade unwound? If you could walk me through that would be helpful.
    Mar 30, 2011. 02:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yongye International Response to Blogger's Red Flags Falls Somewhat Short [View article]
    No offense, but not going to work on the math, I'll assume someone is off a few points. (I think they refer to 29% of annual sales so that may be it)

    Thanks for correction on my assumptions. OK so 2,700 branded stores for $25M and that's where you get your $9,200 per store.

    2010 rev. 214M * .29 (Hebei) = 62M / 2,700 = $23K ann. rev. per store

    $23K / $9.2K (acq. cost per store) = 2.5 times annual sales. Actually more realistic than my prior estimate. 3 times sales is a rule of thumb, but that could be debated forever. But compares with other retail metrics (distributors much lower margins than Yonge very likely so valued like retailer)

    And I don't know of any business that can legally or ethically just cut out the distributor/reseller, even in the wild, wild west of China.

    I saw some post elsewhere (Chinese origin) about Yong with ads for sales people where they give you a car if you buy X amount of product/inventory. I'm betting this will be some sort of MLM deal. Where a large portion of sales come from recruiting new sales people (must buy inventory). They do sell to farmers/small stores,but are also encouraged/incented to recruit new sales people (these then become their down-level). This could go on for quite some time in a country the size of China, but this type of thing can sometimes implode or can actually be successful especially if the product has legs. This is more a theory from 1 post I read, but notice wording Q4 PR " to lower level distributors". Once they start talking about "lower level" distributors then you kind of wonder how many levels? I think time will prove this to be a MLM. Maybe one of the biggest ever!

    However, they could still be successful based on size of China and wide distribution of farmers/villages. The big if in such a scenario is the quality of sales. Does the product make it to and is it accepted by the farmer or is it sales people selling to more sales people/stores?

    I'm just guessing a little here and the rampant growth makes me think I'm on the right track.

    I will not go into more detail because I am currently fantasizing about partnering with hedge funds, taking huge short positions, writing my brilliant hit piece and collecting the free cash! They say if you are not sure what your edge is when trading then you have no edge. I'm thinking about whole dam% blade!
    Mar 25, 2011. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yongye International Response to Blogger's Red Flags Falls Somewhat Short [View article]
    That 29% was copied from 10K PR. I don't know what list comprised of either, but if I were a sales rep./distributor I'd be heading for a new company if my supplier shared this info because of some guy on the Internet! You would have to have some experience carrying a bag on the street (farm) and competing for your next meal to understand how critical your customer base is. Bean counters don't play in that world. Anyway, 29% of sales, assuming list was for entire province would be about 6,400 end customers, and cost of about $3,900/customer. Per 10Q each customer is about $1,200 in rev. per qtr. I didn't do a lot of analysis on this; i.e. annualized, actual number of customers in province etc., but via my rough math it seems like they acquired these customers for less than 1x annual rev. - pretty good actually.

    Also from 10Q - After the acquisition of the Hebei customer list in July 2010, the Company's margin on the sales made in Hebei province increased to 63% excluding these non-cash expenses
    (overall margin for Q was 53%)

    So it seems like they acquired at a good cost. Have increased sales and margins in the province because of purchase. And strategically removed a potentially far too powerful distributor from their channel (from prior article by Ian)

    Seems to me like they did more than buy a list is all I am saying. There may have been a tad more thought involved than some have insinuated.

    What about Amway / MLM structure? Has anyone really done any research on that angle?
    Mar 25, 2011. 01:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yongye International Response to Blogger's Red Flags Falls Somewhat Short [View article]
    ECD FAN I try not to enage with serial posters, but it's a slow Fri. so I'll play.

    They did buy a list and disclosed it properly. But what is that list comprised of? Customers that have been obtained by their largest revenue producing distributor.

    Now the "list business" is huge in every industry. Usually companies are buying lists of potential customers based on some sort of demographic or industry.

    So are you telling me:

    A. They bought this list of customers and they still sell product via this unknown Hebei provincial distributor? They bought a list, but nothing has changed in this distribution channel?

    B. They bought this list and now sell directly to this customer/distributor list.

    If it's A, then yeah they're pretty stupid and/or frauds. But you seem to know this stock very well. Maybe you missed this from the recent 10Q.

    In addition, after the acquisition of the Hebei customer list, the Company is selling its products at a higher price directly to lower level distributors in Hebei, which is Yongye's largest regional market in China, representing 29% of sales in the fourth quarter of 2010.

    Please revert to your posting on 10% customer names and 5% owners. These at least seem like educated beefs with the company. But I think the list thing, at face value, just seems like common FUD. Just trying to help you clean up your game.
    Mar 25, 2011. 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yongye International Response to Blogger's Red Flags Falls Somewhat Short [View article]
    No position in Yong, but repeated statements that Yong paid 25M for a list seems to be an exaggeration. Firstly, it was as stock and cash deal. But my real question of such statement is that they not only acquired the list but the sales relationship with the downstream customer. If distributor is selling to these customers then they are making a profit. When they sell this list and customer base, Yong essentially cuts out the middleman and should be able to garner higher margins via direct sales to these customers. IMHO they are acquiring more than a customer list but instead the distributors profitable business.

    However, I do believe disclosure of this distributor (however and based on whatever) would be beneficial to determine if there are related party concerns.

    Lastly, I have seen other comments about this business being structured like an Amway or similar MLM. Do new lower level sales people have to buy inventory and/or do they also try to recruit other new sales people? Does anyway have any ideas/evidence on this and if so what is the opinion of there sales structure?
    Mar 25, 2011. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Class Action Suits Could Hurt China MediaExpress [View article]
    I think the true crooks in this matter are the likes of MW and Citron as they are the ones profiting. If lawyers can tie up corp. resources imagine what it could do to his gang of mobsters. Here are the emails from each of the firms filing suit against CCME contact them to tell them you would prefer to join a suit against Muddy Waters and/or Citron.

    You can use this email if you like:

    Dear Sirs,

    I would much rather join a class action against Muddy Waters and/or Citron for their crimes. You know the law better than I, but you can use this info as a starting point -

    They have been using their lies and smear tactics for self serving profiteering for themselves and associated parties. They hurt both long and short stock holders. The longs that are current holders of CCME and the new shorts that trade on their "research" and are then left holding the bag as the conspirators exit their short positions profitably. Do some simple research on their trading patterns and claims that have been proven erroneous and/or fabricated. From a legal standpoint you would have plaintiffs hurt on all sides of the stock ownership.

    * I would blind copy the firms
    * someone PLEASE post on Ihub

    Something constructive to do on a down day in the market.
    Mar 10, 2011. 03:43 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Media Express: Up on Bad News [View article]
    Thanks for that jewel - you blew my mind. BTW when do sales reps in China keep track of SEC reports - that contention alone is a laughable. Phone call is either fake or more likely misinformation campaign directed at MW by CCME.

    You obviously have no experience in counter-intelligence. Have you ever studied counter-intelligence, or done some research on corporate espionage? You could learn something ... yada yada yada.

    You've lost the last thread of credibility I ascribed to you with your response regarding Global Hunter's on the street research: BEA wrote: "pretty much the whole report is erroneous"

    You didn't read the directions. Were you good at taking tests in school? Disprove one (1) fact in the report. I know, I know you could disprove them all, even their phone number and office address, but stick to the content of the report. Just one fact. I know you are busy providing wisdom to the masses, but take some time to help me out.

    (I used site vs. cite in a post - I don't strive for good grammar here, but the correct word would have been nice)
    Mar 4, 2011. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Media Express: Up on Bad News [View article]
    Your incessant posting usually with inuendo and dribble. And if u r independently wealthy then what a poor way to spend your days.

    As expected you did nothing to discredit the report except the norm, ask other questions, bring up other unrelated issues, yada, yada, yada - you could go on for days :)

    You see, you are annoying. Don't tell me what they isn't there, don't tell me about CFOs at some conference, don't tell me about your public service hero MW, don't tell me the boogey man could be real ... no, no is certainly real, pick the facts apart. Prove them wrong BEA? Give me one customer name ... you know that line right? (Yonge) Just one fact BEA. Then you will be worth one more post.

    Tell me what facts in the report are erroneous. That's all just one.

    You know I have picked up a factoid from you - and did some research based on it - Yonge SEC large customer disclosure. But of the 100's of posts you make that's all I can site. OH and something about DSPS - stock this writer touted - good info. OK that's 2. I'm sure there are more jewels awaiting me one day.

    And it saddens me to see you are obviously (no certainly for sure) paid by MW and/or their affiliates for your work here and every other board I've recently visited. I guess that was obvious. Those guys are really scum, but smart and have found a good way to make a quick buck and I hope you are paid well because you are skilled with FUD. They just leave a lot of hurt in their wake so you might consider another profession. Me, I'm just bobbing and weaving around the carnage.
    Mar 3, 2011. 10:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Media Express: Up on Bad News [View article]
    Nice to meet you. I would like to buy back my puts I sold on Tue for .50 cents on the dollar. Just trying to be the guy you need on the other side of the trade :) It's just that the terms ahve changed a lil' bit if that's okay with you.

    Mar 3, 2011. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Media Express: Up on Bad News [View article]
    BEA you are one annoying lil b'. You must paid by the word here because you can't possibly hold a real job that involved communication with other people. Anyway, your annoyance leads me to write.

    Have a go at this and tell me what is fraudulent in this Global Hunter report: ghsecurities.bluematri...

    Just the report.

    Stay focused on the report, but tell me if you think they loaded up on calls and sold puts before publishing? MW is not a research firm - they are a trading website at best. Does MW do what they do as a public service? What is their source of income? Follow the $$$ BEA. No they pre-trade their articles. Their trading patterns are easily seen in the days before any published article. And they readily admit they take positions - and we all know short. It is so much easier to drive down a small cap with retail ownership than to tout one.

    Remember, focus on the report itself and if you can pick it apart I'll stop selling puts to the MW bagholders - that's what they are now as the perps have left the playing field.
    Mar 3, 2011. 06:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress Holdings: Options Market Suggests Future Is Bleak [View article]
    I disagree with binomial scenario. There is at least one other scenario. Deloitte finds issues that are essentially non-material. Initial market response would be horrible, but if it were non-material to income or assets then a recovery would take place, albeit with time.

    I believe strongly in the direct customer and vendor research done by Global Hunter


    So my long theory is based on 99% not a fraud of any significant nature, with the caveat that their could be minor issues. Trading strategy is therefore based on long term value regardless of near term volatility (actually the volatility creates some nice long term trading strategies)
    Mar 3, 2011. 10:44 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment