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  • Valeant's Only Mistake: Brutal Honesty [View article]
    So, the author plays down valeant's absurd price hikes of several hundred percent (- all without providing any additional value to patients that could even remotely justify such giant increases). he obviously has never heard of or read the many stories from panicking people who suddenly were denied the drug by the their insurance companies due to those astronomic price increases.

    valeant a "value investor"?? Are you kidding? All that they do is to extract the maximum amount of money possible from a healthcare system that is already broke and broken and that got even more broke and broken with obamacare. Valeant is a vulture that sucks blood from the American taxpayer and mints money from sick people. Without the completely crooked-up medicare/medicaid system, a company like valeant could not even exist because, guess what - all these huge price increases would not be possible without killing 99% of the sales.
    go figure.

    BTW: to me it is largely irrelevant what andrew Left did earlier. As long as the stuff he pointed out is true, I do not care. there are many people who should have been convicted but walk around as free men with intact reputation. judge the guy by his research - and not by stories that date 20 years back!
    Oct 22, 2015. 09:51 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valeant provides additional color on its relationship with Philidor [View news story]
    Valeant is just a bunch of greedy crooks. Buying up competitors' drugs on the cheap and then raising prices to the hilt, because the geniuses obummer and hillaryous made it ultra-easy for them with their misguided 'healthcare reforms'.
    medicare/medicaid costs are through the roof already and will continue to do rise unless the system gets a complete overhaul and closing the door for crooks like valeant would go a long way to reign in health care costs. even with all their lobbying the big pharma comps will not be able to prevent this from happening, ultimately. valeant's business model is based on extracting ever more money from taxpayers while offering zero in return. citron's claims are a side-issue at best. the sooner companies like valeant disappear the better for everyone.
    oh and ackman, the hypocrite: he was 100% correct about blaming herbalife for exploiting people and selling unrealistic dreams to them. But what about the morale and ethic conduct over there at valeant?
    Oct 22, 2015. 09:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Other Companies Really Have What Tesla Autopilot Has? [View article]
    @higgs and miketesla: fair points that undoubtedly are good for any tesla car owner. They are almost equally bad, though, from a shareholder#s perspective. Since Tesla obviously is not manufacturing cars with above-average reliability, it is tesla motors that has to incur a lot of warranty repair costs. which eat directly into the already bleeding cash flow statement.
    Oct 22, 2015. 06:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Other Companies Really Have What Tesla Autopilot Has? [View article]
    Your endless cheerleading for tesla is getting increasingly annoying. l just pick one of the points that you keep harping on: tesla's extensive warranty and how that improves the resale value etc.. While that is undoubtedly good news for any tesla car owner, it is pretty bad news for any tesla shareholder. because said warranties come at a cost - and potentially a huge one - for tesla motors. case in point: the drive-trains with their high failure rate. For a car owner, getting the drive-train replaced at no cost a couple of times is nice , but for tesla, it makes the economies of their cars even worse than they were already. The same applies to the battery warranty. In short: spending a hundred thousand bucks for warranty related repairs that may 'boost' resale value by some 10-20k isn't exactly a stellar investment - from a shareholder's perspective. But it seems - judging by your blind faith and constant chearleading - you couldn't care less whether tesla motors ever is profitable. As long as the stock price trades unrelated to the company's fundamentals anyway.
    Oct 22, 2015. 06:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tesla Double Standard [View article]
    nuclear isn't clean at all. unless you regard radiation as "clean". Storing nuclear waste for thousands of years isn't even technologically feasible right now - they so far just dig up holes in the ground and bury the stuff in some containers that may at best last for 100-200 years. After that it is all prey and hope.. And the nuclear accidents tschcome on top of it. tschernobyl, fukushima, ten mile, - all events with a 1/1000 years probability but here we are - already we have had at least three of them happening within 60 years. oh, well...
    Oct 22, 2015. 06:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought Seagate Technology: 5.6% Dividend Yield, 10% Dividend Growth [View article]
    Exactly. Seagate isn't just in a "PC downturn". It is in a dying business. WD has seen the sign on the wall and bought sandisk. seagate may still exist a couple years from now but today's dividend yield and share buyback numbers are not that compelling given the poor long-term outlook for their core business.
    Oct 22, 2015. 06:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: More Musings On Model S Reliability [View article]
    @scherf corp: If you assume a $250bn market cap and a >$2000 stock price then by definition you assume an almost unchanged share count over the years.
    Now, in that case, I would be very keen to know HOW in your opinion tesla is going to get all the billions needed to fund their production ramp up, R&D, warranty/service center expansions, supercharger network build-out and, last but not least, the 2nd, 3rd and umpteenth Giga-factory.
    Dare to elaborate? (hint: they are cash flow negative as far as the eye can see, so please spare me lines such as "they will finance all their expansions from their fcf" or the likes...)
    Oct 14, 2015. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: More Musings On Model S Reliability [View article]
    what the hell is "future comparative market cap"?? Is that based on the assumption that tesla will trade 10 years down the road at a similiar obscene valuation as today, just then based on 10 times current sales?

    could you give us any example what othe stock's "future comparatrive market cap"-based "justified" stock price should be?
    Oct 14, 2015. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: More Musings On Model S Reliability [View article]
    Peter, that's intellectually disingenuous to the hilt. You assume that ALL 100k tesla car owners post their numbers on said forum. Hilarious.
    IF it represented about 10 % of all tesla car owners (most likely it will be much less) then we are talking about 280 failures per 10k cars or 2.8 %.
    "Good job"? I don't think so.
    Oct 14, 2015. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Shareholders Are Fighting A Losing Battle [View article]
    You obviously have no idea what gross margins really are and how differently the tesla mgmt and st. elon interpret and define this metric. In short, for them it is gross margins without lot's of costly stuff that EVERY other car manufacturer includes in his gross margin calculations.

    There is a very important number, that is much harder to fudge than "gross margins", "earnings" and "net profit" : it's free cash flow - the cash that grows (or shrinks) in your bank account. tesla's bank account is shrinking continuously, so every once in a while st. elon has to sell some bonds or do another secondary to keep the lights on.

    You may think you are a value investor. But sorry, you aren't one. Not even close. You obviously have no idea about how to properly value a company. You worship tesla and musk. Tha'ts fine - I have no issue with that. But to seriously believe that tesla stock is UNDERVALUED at this point means that real, hard numbers do not figure in your equations and calculations.
    Oct 14, 2015. 11:30 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Shareholders Are Fighting A Losing Battle [View article]
    chemical warfare is so... outdated and old-style. electronic warfare is the future. think EMP attacks. Now, the oldest ICE's may even survive that. the newer ones with their high dependency on electronic components - not so much. tesla - oh well...
    Oct 14, 2015. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Shareholders Are Fighting A Losing Battle [View article]
    I seriously doubt that ICE cars will be 'dinosaurs' 10 years from now. As far as I can see, pure EVs are still a very exotic and very rare species on our roads that is much, much nearer to its extinction than to a role of domination. I can't believe that anybody could seriously think that 10 years from now the car fleet of the entire planet will have been replaced at least to 50-60% by an unproven technology with lots of serious issues that still need to be solved. Even if the technology would bve flawless and all issues solved nobody will be able to install/switch that much of manufacturing capacity so quickly. Not in one decade, not even in two decades.

    As a matter of fact, I do believe that PEVs will survive and grow, but it is highly uncertain at that point which sub-species will really make it to significance. maybe the tesla variety, maybe some other. very likely it willbe one with an entirely different energy storage technology amd here again, it could be Tesla (though unlikely, since they are now very much comitted to the old-style Li-Ion design), it could be someone else.
    Oct 14, 2015. 11:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Shareholders Are Fighting A Losing Battle [View article]
    Apple almost went bk long before changing the world had it not been for mr. softie's checkbook and a spectacular turn-around thereafter.

    tesla may well be a game changer - but that doesn't mean that they will be around long enough to play any significant role in this game when said game finally enters the stage where money is being made. Which is at least a decade away, if not more.
    Oct 14, 2015. 11:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Shareholders Are Fighting A Losing Battle [View article]
    @cash Burner. of course not. I would not challen ge the claim that tesla may change the world, at least the world of cars and transportation. I seriously doubt, however, that anyone buying (and holding) shares of tesla motors does so just to help bring about that change. rather, they speculate on lots of money to be made with those shares.
    Unfortunately for them, while they may be right regarding the change- the-world thingy, this will do nothing to prevent them from losing anywhere between 80-100% of their capital ( based on today's stock price).
    Oct 14, 2015. 11:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Shareholders Are Fighting A Losing Battle [View article]
    "LOL. The author is comparing a Value stock to a High Growth stock, just because they happen to be in the same industry."

    Ok, Dave_M, let's look at that. TSLA trades already at half the market cap of one of the best value stocks that you can currently find in the global car industry (never mind that BMW is still growing quite nicely as well). Only that TSLA makes and sells just shy of 2 % of the cars that BMW does. Now, let's assume they grow by leaps and bounds (what all the tesla-fans here treat almost like a given). For the sake of argument, let's assume TSLA grows its numbers of cars sold by 30 % every year, (and compounded at that!) and BMW just flatlines. In that case, tesla will be at half of BMW's sales (annual number of cars sold) by 2028. (At which point growth rates will also inevitably slow down a lot - if they haven't way earlier). Further, assuming a comparable stellar operational performance and highly efficient manufacturing processes like BMW has by that time (a very challenging task for any car manufacturer, let alone a start-up like Tesla), this would approximately be the moment when Tesla may turn into a 'value-stock' type that you assign to BMW today. With almost the same market cap per vehicles sold that BMW has today. So at that point Tesla may be justified to trade at that 25 bn $ (half of BMW).
    The trouble is: that is a cool 13 years out! Just let that sink in for a moment! Even if EVERYTHING works out really great for Tesla, they can hope to justify their CURRENT market cap 13 years down the road. The prospect that a company's stock may - at best - grow into its valuation only 13 years after I bought isn't exactly exciting, to say the least. Even less so, if one thinks of all the stuff that could go wrong - missed sales targets, competition that eats into margins, lots of dilution due to capital raises, the risk that St. Elon may not be around anymore etc. etc.

    I can fully understand that people pay up for growth potential. What is beyond me is that they take 'growth' as an excuse to not do any homework and not run any numbers. When a company (like Tesla) has to get bigger than lots of very smart, established players in its industry, with mediocre financial resources compared to those of these incumbent competitors and still is priced as if all those challenges have already been overcome, then clearly, we are walking in dreamland. Just keep in mind that BMW's annual FCF alone would allow it to do a lot more of ADDITIONAL R&D , manufacturing capacity expansion, overhaul etc than tesla can ever dream of for many years to come. And , crucially, it provides those incumbents a lot of cushion against a number of costly mistakes or product flops along the way, while Tesla will be virtually dead if it just gets one major step wrong.
    I am willing to do the long BMW-short TSLA trade all day long at these levels.
    Oct 14, 2015. 10:51 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment