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  • Sears Holdings: Non-Linear Thought From A Master Investor [View article]
    What "invaluable stuff" did you learn? And could it be that you read the news and just panicked?
    Time will tell, but maybe you may learn that selling in panic mode usually isn't a wise move. I am just guessing here, of course.
    As for my part; I am still digesting the information and assessing the new risks that may arise from this transaction - and whether there are any new risks arising. If I arrive at the conclsusion that nothing substantial has changed, I may add some call spreads and sell a couple otm puts.
    I learnt that the St. Joe company is weighig to participate with up to $100 mln in the $400 mln. loan to sears. maybe that#s a precautionary step by Berkowitz to have a say if push comes to shove. Or maybe it#s just an opportunity for him to make some money AND at the same time do a favor to one of his fund's largestposoition.
    That being said I currently (my preliminary assessment) view this $400 mln loan as something that is not altering my investment thesis in any meaningful way. especially I do NOT see lampert stealing the company's assets by that venue. there would have been way smarter ways to do so than this very obvious one which would certainly not hold up in a court of law.
    Sep 19 05:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears' Lender Of Last Resort May Spell Trouble [View article]
    It seems it's time now that berkowitz comes out and speaks either to Lampert or to the public. If Eddie really wants to screw everybody and transfer the best assets into his own pockets then now is the time to stop him. personally, I don't think that this is indeed Eddie's intention. But I certainly can't view this latest development as something good.
    Sep 17 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon Has An Unsustainable Business Model [View article]
    That's what jeff bezos keeps saying, too, about AMZN. Now, wall street keeps believing his garbage as it has done now for more than 20 years. I seriously doubt GRPN will ever get near that level of acceptance for essentially being a non-profit organization (albeit not voluntarily so).
    In general, it is really funny how many people have bought this mantra of "profits now are easy but they are just foregone to make even higher profits later" hook, line and sinker. While it is a proven concept in business building, there is a very important distinction to be made: If all those foregone profits are not successfully invested to achieve a durable competitive advantage, then they are just wasted money. plain and simple. which is clearly the case with GRPN. And most likely with AMZN, too
    Aug 6 06:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon Reveals Its Secret Weapon: Gnome And Its Outlook [View article]
    doggie, as I said, a good quarter doesn't make a trend. the latest numbers confirm my assessment: GRPN has no sustainable business model. The stock is "cheap" versus its peers for a reason. Oh and by the way, those peers are all grossly overvalued and overpriced, too.
    Of course there is still a chance that GRPN might turn the corner. I just don't see how. I mean, even mighty AMZN as THE online retailer seems to be incapable to make a profit.
    Aug 6 06:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow + Trulia, And The Big Cover-Up [View article]
    Z stands for ZERO. Which is about the intrinsic value of this "company". And it will go all the way down there (except maybe if some fool acquires it on the way down before collapsing to zero).
    Jul 29 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: POOF! There Goes The Bull Case [View article]
    In fact, Ackman stated several times that he would really love to be sued by herbascam. Of course, they will never do it since in the course of court proceedings a lot of unpleasant truths would surface and get established as facts proven in court. Which is a vastly different thing than a few media stories or some presentation by a hedgefund manager.
    Jul 29 05:27 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: POOF! There Goes The Bull Case [View article]
    The beauty of the situation is, that there are no more bullets necessary to bring herbascam down because it will crumble under its own ponzi-weight. The only question is when, not if that is going to happen. It seems, that day may arrive a bit sooner than I thought. Obviously China and the growth in that market is a wildcard here. however, unlike in the US where HLF has a strong lobby, they are pretty vulnerable to a crackdown by the authorities in China which would almost immediately mean "game over" for the stock (the company itself could likely continue a couple years more. Without the cash flow from the ever expanding pyramid scheme, they will have no way to service their debts . let alone paying them back.
    Jul 29 05:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refuting The False Claim At The Federalist That 'Food Inflation Blows Away Wage Growth.' It's Just Not True [View article]
    Just common sense alone would suggest that this article has little to do with reality on the ground. Commentators above have already addressed the huge issue of downsizing packages while keeping or even raising prices. Another issue is replacement of ingredients with lower quality and cheaper stuff.
    Now, the author claims that 50% of food is taken outside. That may be true. the thing is: All those restaurants face the same problem of accelerating food prices, too. At last check, I haven't seen them all going bankrupt and/or their profit margins collapse. Which would suggest that it's not them who absorb these higher food prices. So it would seem pretty obvious, that even food in restaurants, at MCD etc. would rise at a similar clip than overall food prices. Which blows the little remaining credibility of this article's claims away.
    Jul 28 08:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Expect $200, Not $400 [View article]
    Loomer, if you think, this was an over-reaction, then go and buy the stock. Maybe it was an over-reaction by mr. market all along to push this baby into triple digit stock prices in the first place?
    If you were to found a business and run it - would your goal be revenue growth ad infinitum or profits? because without profits, you won't be able to make a living as an entrepreneur. The beauty of the stock market (and it's treachery) are that gamblers, investors and speculators think that share price appreciation are an equivalent to business success. they are not. More often than not they are actually totally unrelated to the health of the underlying business.
    Question: If Amazon kept growing revenue by making no profits (or even losses) and the stock price would NOT move - would you still like the stock?
    Jul 25 07:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying Wheat [View article]
    Grant,

    if you rely on information from just one side and in this case, the one that has been repeatedly caught lying and deceiving (the U..S. has by now established a pretty solid track record of lying and obfuscating things - 2nd Iraq war, Syria, Gulf of Tonking, the infamous Kuwait babies etc ) then I fear you are analyzing things only from one (bullish or bearish) perspective in the financial markets, too. To me it doesn't matter but to your financial health it will matter a great deal, rest assured.
    My intention was not to present one side (the Russian in this case) - but to present another, different perspective on the Ukrainian/MH17 events. Not to indulge in some propaganda war.
    Jul 25 06:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory: Are Investors' Fears Justified [View article]
    exactly. And Panasonic so far has only committed 200 million $ - in installments. But yeah, TSLA will have no problem obtaining the capital needed for the giga-factory. I smell another secondary giving those lofty stock prices. And given the exuberance and complacency displayed by the tesla bulls and elon musk cheerleaders here, they will be all too happy to buy moar shares at these prices. After all, it's assured profits down the road, no? Just a walk in the park, because St. Elon is calling the shots...
    Jul 24 04:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman's Secret Herbalife Grand Slam That The World Didn't Notice [View article]
    Jeffjacobjames, first there is no such thing as a "solid and legal MLM".
    Second: raven is totally correct: longs went (back) in because their scare of a whopper presentation didn't come true. Some shorts bailed for the same reason - their expectation of an ultimate, quick death blow didn't materialize. Still, I side with the author (excellent article, btw!). What almost all longs and HLF-fanboys here are missing is that HLF is doomed whether or not the regulators step in and regardless what Ackman does or does not in future. It will just change the path and the time frame. But not the ultimate outcome.
    Since HLF relies on constant expansion or else the entire scheme goes in reverse and collapses, it is "only" a matter of when the moment arrives, that this expansion stops. Sort of like with any bubble, with the national debt - take whatever you like. And with any pyramid scheme, for that matter.
    Now, the fact that the nutrition clubs have become the most important item in HLF's business is really great news for the shorts. Because it happens to be the most vulnerable part of their business, too - both from a business point of view and a regulatory point of view.
    the short case got stronger. even though it may take another year, or two or three until HLF's growth reverses. I have structured my position accordingly - in size and time frame. this baby is doomed. and all the name calling against Ackman won't change a thing. the one thing that is really a pity. millions of people will have been defrauded by then due to the actions of greedy, unscrupulous men who are running a scam company, an - as Ackman rightly put it "criminal enterprise".
    Jul 23 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying Wheat [View article]
    The Osze mission staff has denied those allegations and have confirmed that basically the rebels protected the stuff very well. Everything else is just hollow claims to get people emotionally up against one side. Without providing any evidence though.

    Innocent people don't withhold evidence then! Kiev confiscated the voice recordings Tower-MH17. Where are those recordings now? why haven't they been released yet? Are they being "redacted" meanwhile? perhaps as the "telephone recodings" which have already been exposed als blatant manipulations?
    Kiev has faked videos in an effort to prove the "separatists" guilty. the telephone conversations are fake, as has by now been exposed. the video that was upposedly showing the buk system moving on rebel territory moved in fact on government controlled soil.

    http://bit.ly/Um9uXw

    If Kiev really had genuine evidence - where then is the need to fake some?
    Russia showed evidence (satellite photos) of Ukrainian BUk systems being deployed right before the MH17 disaster and quickly being relocated thereafter. Russia shows evidence of a Ukrainian fighter jet in close proximity to MH17 - what was it doing there? Russia talks of peak radar activity in the region by Ukraine right around July 17, the day the plane was allegedly shot.

    http://bit.ly/Um9uXx

    summary: the Russians have shown facts though they did not - in contrast to the West - draw any premature conclusions from them.
    the west has only claimed all sorts of things and promised that they had evidence. Though after 6 days they haven't shown any. Zero.

    back to the topic of the article: I agree that the situation around Ukraine could provide a catalyst for higher grains prices. that the author almost wishes that Russian peasants (who are generally way poorer than American farmers) should lose sales in order for American farmers to prosper even more and that this should be achieved by sanctions is as cynical as it gets though. This author is done for me.
    I know, financial markets in themselves are cruel., Still one can remain a human being while trying to make money. The author obviously hasn't paid much attention to that.
    Jul 22 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Bears And Buy Amazon [View article]
    first, bezos has so far tried to maximize REVENUE, not earnings. that#s a huge difference!
    second: margins keep declining and there is no end to this trend in sight despite repeated promises to the contrary by bezos
    third: A lot of the cost advantage versus brick and mortar is flowing into customers' purses because Amazon still tries to sell everything as cheap as possible. even then, they are not the lowest price seller anymore in quite a number of goods.
    fourth: not all claimed cost advantages versus brick and mortar are really there. shipping and handling eats considerably into Amazon's profitability. These are costs traditional retailers are NOT facing thereby this is offsetting a sizeable part of Amazon's cost advantages that stem from saved rents, saved sales reps etc.
    fifth: the valuation of the business is absurd as bixbubba has correctly pointed out right in the first comment below this article.

    in short, the article states: don't believe the bears. believe the hopium spread by the bulls instead.
    wow. what an investment case!
    Jul 17 08:49 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Closed My Sears Long Position [View article]
    it's a speculative position in the sense that they are currently otm, for sure. but it is set up in a way that I reap huge profits if we cross $60-65 while at the same time the capital outlay is pretty modest. I have assumed that I may have to repeat that exercise at least 1-2 times so the position is sized accordingly. I feel more comfortable with that than owning the stock outright since I still regard SHLD as sort of a digital outcome stock. either a 100-150% upside (in the common) or a flat to down.
    Jul 17 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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