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fxfx

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  • About That BMW i5 And Its Impact On Tesla [View article]
    @lou1000: Keep dreaming. His holiness St. Elon is a human being like everybody else, implying he is far from perfect and far from invincible. So far he hasn't really defeated anyone. All that he has achieved so far - in terms of founding/running profitable businesses - was founding paypal and later on selling it for a nice profit. Everything else is pure imagination and smoke and mirrors.
    And frankly, you obviously have no clue about the true nature of poker. It is extremely rare to have "nothing but aces up your sleeve". The trick is to win with way less than that. But heck, Musk at least convinced you, surfer and a bunch of other believers that he indeed has "only aces up his sleeve". Are you really sure that you poker along Elon's side or not rather (though unknowingly) against him?As Buffet one quipped, If you have been sitting at a poker table for more than half an hour and still couldn't figure out who the patsy was - then it's most probably you.
    Apr 27, 2015. 10:28 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Really Trust Tesla? [View article]
    I am sure Tesla shareholders would view this very differently if Musk hadn't succeeded in keeping tesla afloat. When the company went bk (a high probability at that point in time) and the stock fell to 0 as a consequence, would you guys still defend Musk's deception games? "All is well, we are doing great... etc" - And next thing you know, the company sells itself at 90% below the latest quoted stock price or files for ch11. But hey, it was good and perfectly normal to mislead the public and the company's owners...?!
    Give me a break!
    Apr 25, 2015. 09:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Really Trust Tesla? [View article]
    @DM Suh: You obviously believe in Musk in an almost religiouus way. He may be straigthforward but he has been caught lying, deceiving and exaggerating time and time again. I wouldn't even give a rat's ass for that kind of 'straightforwardness'
    Apr 25, 2015. 09:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Virtu Financial - A High Frequency Trading Company With A Clear Edge [View article]
    @ryanelarson: Why should stocks like VIRT trade at an above-average multiple? Their profits are inherently unpredictable - not like those of WMT, MSFT, or heck, even those of ordinary stock exchanges and banks and borkerages. All that we know is that their trading strategies have been highly profitable so far - but nobody knows for sure for how much longer they will be. And that is NEVER going to change. Unpredictable earnings do deserve a lower multiple, not a higher one.
    Apr 25, 2015. 09:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Virtu Financial - A High Frequency Trading Company With A Clear Edge [View article]
    There have been more than enough such fat tail events already. The SEc could have acted long ago - but they never act when it comes to the big boys. The SEC has a stellar track record protecting the big banks and brokerage interests while paying lip-service to retail investor 'protection'. So the SEC going after Virtu is a non-risk.
    Now, HFTs are imho basically a fraud, plain and simple and they do not facilitate smooth market functioning, they actually destroy the markets. Since we all do not know the algos behind Virtu's trading systems, it is hard to predict anything. But from what I have been seeing in these algo driven markets, there will be a blood bath among HFT outlets when we get real volatility and a bear market. And all of a sudden people will discover that during extreme market movements HFTs do NOT provide any liquidity whatsoever but that instead they suck up liquidity on a large scale.
    Virtue is essentially a black box and I would not touch their stock at any price. Their trading profits could vanish in a blink and their equity wiped out in an instant. There is no room for error and no margin of safety in this business model - it is simply impossible to value a company that is gambling in the markets with nanosecond-timeframes with near-fraudulent methods.
    Apr 25, 2015. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Really Trust Tesla? [View article]
    @Montana: don't be too harsh! Cecil does it only to protect shareholders' interests. LOL
    Apr 23, 2015. 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Really Trust Tesla? [View article]
    Cecil, so you regard it as "protecting your (shareholders') interests" when his holiness St. Elon lies straight into your (shareholders') face time and time again? Like any bloody cocksu*ker in D.C. and in the oval office does? For instance, lying about supposed WMDs in some country thousands of miles away, based on which a couple thousand U.S. soldiers and hundreds of thousand innocent Iraqi civilians died - and basically just for nothing. That sort of 'protection'? Then you fully deserve to be lied to - and when the giant scam called Tesla motors comes unglued you deserve each and every penny that you lose. Not because I did not like you ( I am totally neutral towards you as I do not know you at all) . But because you could have and should have known better! Fool me once - shame on you, fool me twice...

    You are living in a state of total denial, of make believe and pure fantasy. Good luck with that approach in the financial markets where the premier rule is: give the most to the fewest! Now, since fools and dumb people are NEVER in short supply, we can safely assume that Mr. market isn't catering to them; instead they are always the ones who end up with the final bill to pay. You are welcome to pay mine.
    disclosure: I am adding to my Tesla shorts here.

    @paolo: superb article, one of your best!
    Apr 23, 2015. 10:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Virtuous Cycle Is Intact, But Stock Is Fully Valued [View article]
    good, valid points. I also do not see a meaningful decline in content cost per subscriber but essentially a flat line. This speaks loud and clear that there is little scalability for nflx in this field - which is to be expected as it is the content producers who have the scale and who have little incentive to pass on their cost advantage to customers (i.e. netflix).
    That being said, I do acknowledge that netflix could gradually raise prices anywhere from 25-50 % (from today's levels) without losing too many customers and/or slowing down subscriber growth by too much. However, there WILL be an effect on subscriber growth - and since wallstreet is obsessed with that single metric, it would send the stock downwards - and hard. Now, Hastings does know that of course, too. I am 100% sure that he plans to raise capital via at least one or two secondary equity offerings down the road. Therefore, he wants that subscriber growth to stay in place until then no matter what. At some point, that growth will inevitably slow down nonetheless. I regard netflix a bubble stock that can be shorted with small otm put spreads as a hedge against an overall market decline as this kind of stock would be hit particularly hard then. If one regards Netflix as an individual short candidate, i would NOT move yet, however. Wait for the secondary and for the first drop in subscriber growth. you may not catch the top that way, but will short a substantially weakened momentum darling - which massively increases the odds that the short position will pay off.
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: Pain Purifies [View article]
    I have a hard time believing that GE capital was oh so 'profitable'. It has been the one and only reason why GE managed to beat the earnings estimates by a penny each and every quarter for many, many years. In short: GE capital was a giant black hole for outsiders that was used excessively by GE to 'make the numbers'. It is obvious by now that they achieved this by purely making up the market value of the loans and securities held and hence the 'earnings' of GE capital. How else can you explain that they suddenly take a $16bn charge on said portfolio after years of rising bond prices and collapsing yields across the board. Still, even after that huge appreciation the portfolio had to take a huge hit. One can only imagine how dire things must have been back in 2008/2009. That being said, the new GE at least is free from this huge financial time bomb. But I assume lots of vendor financing took place via that route so I would not be surprised at all to see GE's core business deteriorating massively going forward, i.e. a collapse of profit margins and lower sales. I wouldn't touch the stock before the financing arm has been sold completely and clarity emerges about GE's true earnings power - or lack thereof.
    Apr 23, 2015. 05:42 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Bears Are Wrong And Why Netflix Isn't A Bubble In The Making [View article]
    NFLX itself is not a strong brand and never will be unless they go full steam into content production. Disney is a real brand, sure, but not NFLX. People watch stuff because they like the content - they couldn't care less whether it's shown on HBO, ABC, NFLX or wherever. Do you go to a movie theater because it has written a certain name on it or because of the movies shown there?
    Apr 23, 2015. 04:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Shattering The Lack Of Demand Myth [View article]
    @Cecil: If the genius St Elon could accurately forecast major currency trends then he could make dozens of billions just trading $, euros and Yen - and could cross subsidize Tesla with the profits. What the heck are you smoking?
    I've been trading currencies for more than 30 years now. I have an idea why the $ is doing what it is doing and why it might continue for quite a while longer than most people think and irrespective of the fact that the long $ is now the most crowded trade among hedge funds out there.
    But I certainly would never ever bet big money on major currency movements to happen in specified time frames. For instance, I am darn sure that the yen will get way weaker than it is now ( and that it will weaken much more against gold and the Euro from now on than versus the $). But I simply have no conviction whether that collapse of the Yen will come a year or 3 or 5 from now and whether or not we may see some pretty large counter-trend moves along the way.
    You are hopelessly naive if you seriously believe that you (or anyone else) could accurately predict currency movements.
    Apr 16, 2015. 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Slow-Motion Strangulation [View article]
    "My guess is Google will continue wasting money on moonshots and that not a single penny will be returned as dividends or buybacks. Why anyone but the founders stay invested in this company is a mystery to me. "

    Incidentally that is a fitting description for quite a number of today's tech or www companies - like AMZN (and, CRM, TWTR, WDAY... - except that the latter so far never earned enough money to try any moonshots)
    Apr 14, 2015. 11:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Slow-Motion Strangulation [View article]
    rach07, As hard as it is for me, I happen to think that AMZN knows even more about yourself than even GOOG does. I think that the AMZN stock is grossly overpriced, but I also believe that AMZn is far more powerful in the long term than FB or perhaps even than GOOG.
    Apr 14, 2015. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Slow-Motion Strangulation [View article]
    Abbyowner, I am inclined to agree - but then FB's fate is sealed, too, isn't it? After all, FB isn't anything else than a media company exploiting its users and selling their privacy and the content created by them to advertising companies. I do understand the power of advertising and why it is imperative for many companies to keep advertising no matter what. But I still can't understand why they keep advertising with companies like Fb and GOOG where the click rates and the conversion rates (real business per ad $ spent) are still horrific.
    Apr 14, 2015. 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Slow-Motion Strangulation [View article]
    IF GOOG is a one trick pony - then what is AAPL (the iphone IS the only real product that matters for them, from a sales volume and profit margins point of view and will be for years to come)? Then what is FB ( basically a platform exploiting its users by selling them and their content to ad companies)? Then what is TWTR? Etc. etc.
    Apr 14, 2015. 11:37 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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