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Miguel Marecos

Miguel Marecos
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  • PetSmart Very Cheap Whether It Is Sold Or Not [View article]
    Hi Josh,

    You said "First off, the model computes a fair value and not a price target. A price target is forward-looking; you take what you think the company will earn, and multiply it by an earnings multiple to project a price out into the future. The fair value computed is the present value of the company's discounted earnings stream, adjusted for dividends."

    Didn't you do just that in your model? you discounted future earnings/abnormal earnings to the present and then calculated the fair value. (it's the same as Price Target when the price target is based on DCF model... ). Can you clarify please?

    The fair value will depend on your assumptions. Don't you think your earnings forecast are a little aggressive?
    Aug 20 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting Investment Opportunities In Coal Mining [View article]
    That depends on the price paid...
    Jun 24 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Det Norske: 200% Upside Potential After Game-Changing Acquisition [View article]
    Don't drill with debt. The spectacular fail of Eike Batista should be used for something...
    Jun 20 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chris DeMuth, Jr. Positions For 2014: Certain Industries Are Ripe For Consolidation [View article]
    I am crossing my fingers for you Chris! Let the good times continue...
    Jun 6 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penny stock trade booms [View news story]
    If it goes to zero you still lose all of your money... if you buy at 3 cents or 30 dollars is meaningless...
    May 23 11:52 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gyrodyne Could Make For A Tasty Liquidation Play [View article]
    The same. Just wait for the merger... the dividend note, GSD and the stub will merge into Gyrodine LLC.
    May 8 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning: A Perfect Case Study On When To Sell [View article]

    I believe the author isn't timing anything. He is just saying that in his opinion the stock now is fully valued, and the reason he bought are now vanished... maybe the stock goes up 20%.. He doesn't care, because the margin of safety isn't there anymore.

    This type of system helps to leave emotions/instincts out of the equation, because most of the time emotions/instincts will be wrong!

    I am long Corning and I understand I why the author sold, and it's not a mistake... the mistake is to let your emotions erode your system!
    Mar 30 11:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning: A Perfect Case Study On When To Sell [View article]

    Corning has reached my PT of $19 - $20 (I bought it at $11,27), I haven't sold yet because of the Samsung Corning Precision deal... These asset was completely buried, at least for the market and the deal brought it the front page... but it may be better than I estimated.
    If the company can grow earnings, as management indicates maybe a higher P/B is completely justified, in my opinion.
    I don't like to estimate future growth, but what are your thoughts on the deal?
    Mar 14 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emeco Holdings: A Bet On Liquidation Value [View article]
    Alex, I would argue that it's that kind of pessimism that has driven the stock this low, that at this prices it represents an opportunity. The Market has way to always overestimate in good times and underestimate in bad times... and there is a massive shift from coal to natural gas, but coal generates around 41% of the world total electricity and will increase until 2020. The shifts you talk about take a LONG time to develop.

    Emeco has been successful for 40 years, even before the great commodities bull market started in 2000.

    You should read about Walter Schloss, he is the proof that you don't need " a consistent stream of profitability that's growing"
    Mar 12 07:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10% Guaranteed Return* [View instapost]
    Chris thanks for sticking your neck out! I think your disclosure was fair and did not present a conflict of interests.
    I know (from SA, at least) you work hard on your best ideas and in my view you should get rewarded for that. (that is motif objective I think)People have the responsibility to know in what they get into... That habit will make them avoid/prevent from being abused not by reading disclosures!
    Feb 11 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gyrodyne Could Make For A Tasty Liquidation Play [View article]
    Drew111 and 2whiteroses how are your brokers treating the special dividend? as return of capital so there are no withholding taxes? My brokers are withholding taxes on the special dividend...
    Jan 28 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Spare [View instapost]
    Congrats Chris!!
    Jan 8 05:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gyrodyne Could Make For A Tasty Liquidation Play [View article]
    The concern in Interactive Brokers for me was that they charge withholding taxes on the special dividend, and since it's a return of capital should't be charged any tax... They told me that was the depositary instructions but the situation it's being reviewed by their tax group! Did this happen to you, TheCompleatAngler?
    Jan 5 06:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gyrodyne Could Make For A Tasty Liquidation Play [View article]
    Don'tbugmeplease, from what could read in the fillings, the non-transferable investments such as the Dividend notes and GSD interests, plus the liquid Gyro stub will merge into Gerodyne LLC which will trade in the Nasdaq. From the proxy:
    "Gyrodyne Common Stock is traded under the symbol “GYRO” on NASDAQ and we expect Gyrodyne, LLC Shares to trade on NASDAQ under the symbol “GYRO” following the merger."

    The merger is expected to happen in early 2014, at that the time the non-transferable dividend notes and GSD interest will be transferable since they represent 1,92 and 3,66 shares of Gerodyne LLC, respectively. The shares my be illiquid but they will be transferable, that is good enough for me.

    " Investing 101 is not to get into an investment that you can't liquidate within a reasonable time without being assured of your return"
    When I buy a common stock I am happy to wait 3/4 years (depending on the situation, and the value I perceive in such stock) until it realizes it's value but I am never assured of my rate of return since I believe that is impossible when you are dealing with stock investing. What I can do is to invest in situations where I have a margin of safety and where the odds are my side. Thus, two years is perfectly fine for me since I believe I will receive more than the 20,7 I left on the GSD interests (that will be transferable in matter of months).
    In this case even if I received only half of that I would make money, little but I would. My downside is protected and I have a possibility to make a decent return. The risk/reward is attractive at least for me, and I think that was the proposition of this investment.

    It's my humble opinion that Bulldog choose 31st December to dispose most of it's shares because it wanted to receive the Special dividend, cash and GSD interests, the dividend notes (since they only sold after 26th of December). Moreover, the stub at 13 or even 11 is overvalued that's is I they sold so many shares on the 31 of December. The company estimated the value of the stub at 6, and even if the estimated value is conservative it's not likely that will be worth 100% more (even with the rezoning and etc), so it makes sense to sell the stub at this levels.

    Of course it's to early to tell if there are winners or not, but I am felling lucky, let's wait for the Gerodyne LLC merger.
    Jan 3 06:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gyrodyne Could Make For A Tasty Liquidation Play [View article]
    Yes. I bought 30 December at 67,25... I received 66,56 in special dividend. Thanks for putting this opportunity on my radar...

    I think the market was way too much confused about this trade... Why would on earth on Dec 30 at close you could buy one stock of GYRO 64 for something that was about to distribute 66,56 and you kept the stub. 66,56+12 (stub current price)= 78.56 (and potentially more) for 66.56!
    Jan 2 07:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment