Marty's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/85037/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/153178-ebay-is-a-winning-bid-barron-s?source=feed#comment-614054 614054
My email is clhct1@aol.com keep in touch!

Marty]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 01:53:16 -0400
My email is clhct1@aol.com keep in touch!

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153178-ebay-is-a-winning-bid-barron-s?source=feed#comment-613315 613315
This sort of user meltdown was apparent and the main cause for the demise of AOL which was once thought never to lose their lead just as Ebay was.

It becomes more and more expensive to grab new users when existing users become less active or leave the site.

It is critical that Ebay realize this and stop pissing into the wind.

They need to capture the buying community in ways only they can and let people know through creative marketing and ads what they can buy on eBay.

Sellers need to have a place which excel in service but also in opportunity.

Back in 2006, Bill Cobb then President of Ebay North America, announced "store inventory would be going into Core search, in Jan of that year" . That quarter, which was awesome for sellers, saw and increase in Gross merchandise volume (sales of all sellers) and it even beat the holiday quarter that preceeded it. Sales exploded and new inventory was swamping the site. More hits for items newly searcable was pulling millions of store item up through google rankings and it was feeding on itself

A few months later, Ebay citing non-existant (in my view) "buyer confusion" realized that if it sold too much too quickly ,they would lose tons of money from people listing items over and over that DID NOT SELL. Yes, revenue from items that do not sell was declining as people could list cheaply and get found and sell. Our sales shot up from $1500 a month to $4500 like nothing.

Ebay reversed their "experiment" then slammed their own sellers by saying "store inventory was "slower , less desirable" etc etc.

Combined with fee increases, this change started the process of a migration to Amazon. New Amazon sellers took root, found success and then more followed. Ebay handed them this business.

Within a few years of its Start, Ebay Stores grew to be the largest web based merchant mall in the world, perhaps the biggest internet web success story ever.

But within months, they were talking about it like an old shoe, because the revenue model was such that the relisting of items that didnt sell over and over was so profitable that they couldnt forgo the revenue.

I begged for them to keep the system and change the fee structure as things were firing on all cylinders then. Instead they kept marching down that path, angering many of their best users, reversing a major decision then belittling their items.

Now they see GMV in decline, a user base went from 41% active to 18% active. Non-existant advertising and marketing campaigns, a 10% cut in their workforce (mainly good community orientated people), and despite plowing 4 billion into stock buybacks at prices way above where the stock is today the stock is still down 50%.

People who really know Ebay know what is going wrong. No one will listen though. It isnt that its a bad company, its that its losing the interest of the buying public and unwinding in much the same fashion as it wound up, and much like AOL unwound. The tipping point may have been reached but I am an eternal optimist and hopeful that sensability will return to management.

The employees at Ebay , when energized would return like horses to water in the desert. They are thirsty for a business model that reinvigorates this company just as users like I am . I have spoken to manhy of them and they feel the same but sometimes differ in their approach.

I wish them luck of course, but right now the same people that cash out on companies (BAIN CAPITAL) are running the show and Id look carefully at how they do things to see Ebay's future.

Marty
]]> Mon, 03 Aug 2009 15:24:38 -0400
This sort of user meltdown was apparent and the main cause for the demise of AOL which was once thought never to lose their lead just as Ebay was.

It becomes more and more expensive to grab new users when existing users become less active or leave the site.

It is critical that Ebay realize this and stop pissing into the wind.

They need to capture the buying community in ways only they can and let people know through creative marketing and ads what they can buy on eBay.

Sellers need to have a place which excel in service but also in opportunity.

Back in 2006, Bill Cobb then President of Ebay North America, announced "store inventory would be going into Core search, in Jan of that year" . That quarter, which was awesome for sellers, saw and increase in Gross merchandise volume (sales of all sellers) and it even beat the holiday quarter that preceeded it. Sales exploded and new inventory was swamping the site. More hits for items newly searcable was pulling millions of store item up through google rankings and it was feeding on itself

A few months later, Ebay citing non-existant (in my view) "buyer confusion" realized that if it sold too much too quickly ,they would lose tons of money from people listing items over and over that DID NOT SELL. Yes, revenue from items that do not sell was declining as people could list cheaply and get found and sell. Our sales shot up from $1500 a month to $4500 like nothing.

Ebay reversed their "experiment" then slammed their own sellers by saying "store inventory was "slower , less desirable" etc etc.

Combined with fee increases, this change started the process of a migration to Amazon. New Amazon sellers took root, found success and then more followed. Ebay handed them this business.

Within a few years of its Start, Ebay Stores grew to be the largest web based merchant mall in the world, perhaps the biggest internet web success story ever.

But within months, they were talking about it like an old shoe, because the revenue model was such that the relisting of items that didnt sell over and over was so profitable that they couldnt forgo the revenue.

I begged for them to keep the system and change the fee structure as things were firing on all cylinders then. Instead they kept marching down that path, angering many of their best users, reversing a major decision then belittling their items.

Now they see GMV in decline, a user base went from 41% active to 18% active. Non-existant advertising and marketing campaigns, a 10% cut in their workforce (mainly good community orientated people), and despite plowing 4 billion into stock buybacks at prices way above where the stock is today the stock is still down 50%.

People who really know Ebay know what is going wrong. No one will listen though. It isnt that its a bad company, its that its losing the interest of the buying public and unwinding in much the same fashion as it wound up, and much like AOL unwound. The tipping point may have been reached but I am an eternal optimist and hopeful that sensability will return to management.

The employees at Ebay , when energized would return like horses to water in the desert. They are thirsty for a business model that reinvigorates this company just as users like I am . I have spoken to manhy of them and they feel the same but sometimes differ in their approach.

I wish them luck of course, but right now the same people that cash out on companies (BAIN CAPITAL) are running the show and Id look carefully at how they do things to see Ebay's future.

Marty
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153256-ebay-s-skype-fiasco-what-were-they-thinking?source=feed#comment-612717 612717
Marty]]> Mon, 03 Aug 2009 10:15:31 -0400
Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153178-ebay-is-a-winning-bid-barron-s?source=feed#comment-612708 612708
I havent med John Donahoe so I cant comment on him. Id love to meet him and combine what he is doing with what needs to be done for the community. JD can reach me at clhct1@aol.com LOL

Marty]]> Mon, 03 Aug 2009 10:12:54 -0400
I havent med John Donahoe so I cant comment on him. Id love to meet him and combine what he is doing with what needs to be done for the community. JD can reach me at clhct1@aol.com LOL

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153178-ebay-is-a-winning-bid-barron-s?source=feed#comment-612705 612705
If you really want to know what is going on with eBay just carefully reviews the total registered users and active registered users.

In 2006 41% of their users were actively trading (buying,selling listing items on the site in a 12 month period. Now that number is like 18%. There is incredible user churn. When I noticed active user growth was going to turn negative they actually took the numbers you needed to see this churn OUT of the quarterly reports. They just returned this quarter.

This company can do extremely well once they get a course which does the following..

1- Actively addresses the "Local" markets which can be a whole new reason to "Ebay" .

2- Really opens the global marketplace not hides items from country to country

3- Brings its users (buyers and sellers) into wanting to trade here as opposed to elsewhere through effective advertising auto-affiliating active users to have them participate in the growth of the site.

4- Stop tinkering with trying to show people what they want to buy and ruining the broad nature of the "find everything" marketplace they created.

One example, on a local site for Ebay all Ebays properties could benefit, rent.com, tickets through ebay tickets or stubhub, real estate , new service areas, restaurant certificates etc AND whole new areas of trading like larger harder to ship items like furniture and other heavy things.

Also by auto-affiliation here is what I mean. Many users are turned off by ads plastered all over the site, even on users own listings. Make sellers part of the team by cutting them in an ad revenue for ads on their listings, on content they create to showcase their items and on cross-sales of other customers items found through their items AND on new users that sign up from seeing their item.

This would make Ebay the only place where sellers could benefit from sales of items, content ads, cross-sales, and new users. It would make each item placed on the site more valuable.

There are amazing people working at Ebay. There are great people active in the ebay community. But most people I know with a good understanding of the site feel the same way I do. And its not an "Ebay hater" thing, its a concern for a great place going in the wrong direction.

Experience...

Seller on Ebay since 2004
Trading assistant on Ebay (sell for others)
Owned Ebay store since 2005
Wife was an Ebay Teacher (Educational specialist)
Member of focus group for Ebay
Sold over 7,000 items on the site, feedback over 5000 100% positive.
Leader of one of the best seller groups on Ebay
Featured in a few books on Ebay
Winner of 2007 Ebay Hall of Fame Award
Bought hundreds of items on the site.
Introduced hundreds of people to ebay through classes and friendship

Marty
]]> Mon, 03 Aug 2009 10:10:20 -0400
If you really want to know what is going on with eBay just carefully reviews the total registered users and active registered users.

In 2006 41% of their users were actively trading (buying,selling listing items on the site in a 12 month period. Now that number is like 18%. There is incredible user churn. When I noticed active user growth was going to turn negative they actually took the numbers you needed to see this churn OUT of the quarterly reports. They just returned this quarter.

This company can do extremely well once they get a course which does the following..

1- Actively addresses the "Local" markets which can be a whole new reason to "Ebay" .

2- Really opens the global marketplace not hides items from country to country

3- Brings its users (buyers and sellers) into wanting to trade here as opposed to elsewhere through effective advertising auto-affiliating active users to have them participate in the growth of the site.

4- Stop tinkering with trying to show people what they want to buy and ruining the broad nature of the "find everything" marketplace they created.

One example, on a local site for Ebay all Ebays properties could benefit, rent.com, tickets through ebay tickets or stubhub, real estate , new service areas, restaurant certificates etc AND whole new areas of trading like larger harder to ship items like furniture and other heavy things.

Also by auto-affiliation here is what I mean. Many users are turned off by ads plastered all over the site, even on users own listings. Make sellers part of the team by cutting them in an ad revenue for ads on their listings, on content they create to showcase their items and on cross-sales of other customers items found through their items AND on new users that sign up from seeing their item.

This would make Ebay the only place where sellers could benefit from sales of items, content ads, cross-sales, and new users. It would make each item placed on the site more valuable.

There are amazing people working at Ebay. There are great people active in the ebay community. But most people I know with a good understanding of the site feel the same way I do. And its not an "Ebay hater" thing, its a concern for a great place going in the wrong direction.

Experience...

Seller on Ebay since 2004
Trading assistant on Ebay (sell for others)
Owned Ebay store since 2005
Wife was an Ebay Teacher (Educational specialist)
Member of focus group for Ebay
Sold over 7,000 items on the site, feedback over 5000 100% positive.
Leader of one of the best seller groups on Ebay
Featured in a few books on Ebay
Winner of 2007 Ebay Hall of Fame Award
Bought hundreds of items on the site.
Introduced hundreds of people to ebay through classes and friendship

Marty
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111743-what-will-become-of-ebay?source=feed#comment-335707 335707
For example a year or so ago CORE format (auction/fixed price) was once about 70 cents (35 cents to insert it 35 cents for a gallery picture) for a 7 day listing. NOW , they eliminated the gallery picture fee so the fee is 35 Cents for as long as 30 days. Of course listing numbers are going to be different.

The decline in traffic and slower unique visitor build is really the guts of the problem and one Ebay can correct. This is the most poorly marketed brand name on the planet. They squandered goodwill, hurt their base, advertised poorly ,never appealed to the second generation internet people and youth and gummed lots of things up.

I can say the people that work for Ebay for the most part are awesome (both past employees and current ones). Some have a feel for what must be done and what has gone wrong. Some changes have been made and more will come.

This stock should be humming with a downturn like this as it creates tons of supply of low cost stuff to buy and buyers are seeking low cost stuff in a downturn as well.

Incredible collections of collectibles are coming on to the market for the first time in a long time and if Ebay could get on track it could use this downturn to it advantage.

I hope for the best for the people at Ebay and their shareholders.

Marty]]> Mon, 22 Dec 2008 10:55:42 -0500
For example a year or so ago CORE format (auction/fixed price) was once about 70 cents (35 cents to insert it 35 cents for a gallery picture) for a 7 day listing. NOW , they eliminated the gallery picture fee so the fee is 35 Cents for as long as 30 days. Of course listing numbers are going to be different.

The decline in traffic and slower unique visitor build is really the guts of the problem and one Ebay can correct. This is the most poorly marketed brand name on the planet. They squandered goodwill, hurt their base, advertised poorly ,never appealed to the second generation internet people and youth and gummed lots of things up.

I can say the people that work for Ebay for the most part are awesome (both past employees and current ones). Some have a feel for what must be done and what has gone wrong. Some changes have been made and more will come.

This stock should be humming with a downturn like this as it creates tons of supply of low cost stuff to buy and buyers are seeking low cost stuff in a downturn as well.

Incredible collections of collectibles are coming on to the market for the first time in a long time and if Ebay could get on track it could use this downturn to it advantage.

I hope for the best for the people at Ebay and their shareholders.

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103274-too-much-house-buyers-to-be-rewarded?source=feed#comment-295686 295686
This downturn is NOT about Subprime mortgages and housing, that is the symptom of the disease which has been the decimation of the good paying job market for 10 years.

I am a CPA in CT . In 2006 the savings rate in our country went negative for the first time since the Great Depression. Inflation had been running way higher than cost of living increases. Decreases in benefits and pensions offered by companies also hurt.

The average person became unable to pay their bills. Many FIXED mortgages are defaulting and PRIME defaults now outnumber subprime defaults.

The problem is not the house cost as most borrowers can just call up their lender and get a legit modification right now. ITs the cost of everything else.

When I moved into my house the cost of a tank of heating oil was 200 bucks, it rose to 1000 bucks and now its about 800. Gas was 1.50 a gallon and rose to 4.5 (now down to about 2.60) . Property taxes were 3000 now 6000. . Food went out of control this year.

In the 1970s inflation resulted in huge increases in the cost of living adjustments for social security recipients. From 1976-1986 I believe COLA increases were 75% . My father who worked for the Govt at the time had even higher COLAs with his performance based increases.

So you could be ten years later in an inflationary period and be making 75-90% more to pay your fixed debts.

This is how we crawled out of the last inflationary period into growth. People had higher incomes to pay mostly fixed debts.

THis time around due to outsourcing , and limited investment by our country in THIS COUNTRY, people have gone backwards in income and many at best stayed equal or fell behind inflation. Social security only received about 30% over 10 years in increases while their costs soared out of control. At the same time medicare premium increases ate up a chunk of that as well.

This is the root of the problem. At first people borrowed on credit cards some and paid it off with bonuses and sometimes home equity loans. As things got worse, people got stuck with every larger bills. Millions of high paying jobs have been lost. In 1982 80% of jobs had company or Govt paid for pensions that number is like 18% today. Most had medical ins. Today people are lucky to get it and usually have to pay towards it.

Unemployment doesnt measure underemployment.

The bottom line ? Until this country invests in infrastructure, alternative energy, energy development in general, the space program etc etc we are not going to see a recovery.

The standard of living is evening out across the world due to the greed and concentration of wealth once again the masses cant afford life in the USA. This means prices will adjust dramatically and people will just not spend.

We have stood by while more debt was added to the federal deficit in 8 years than in the last 200 of our country and while the uber rich got richer without the need to invest in new companies here in the US due to outsourcing.

We watched our Pet food contain poison, our kids toys contaminated with lead , all because we could get it cheaper from China.

Well the new news is Amercan workers are going to be as cheap as the new China, welcome to the new America.

Like I said its not SUBPRIME mortgages , its a symptom of the jobs , opportunity mix here. As always the same Govt that just a year ago told you the "economy was doing well, the jobs market was strong" is telling you its the "sub-prime mortgages"

The same people that told you we were "running out of oil" and "China was using all our oil" when $147 dollars a barrel oil prices were bankrupting the middle class, and encouraged you to "drill more NOW" while oil now is sitting at $64 bucks a barrel

The same people that give 25 billion to Citibank on the verge of failure only to allow them to pay 25 billion in bonuses ..

The Greed, speculation, concentration of wealth , corruption, selling out of the manufacturing base , war , all without an investment in the future of our country's new industries has been and is the problem.

We have been left with a huge mess, leaded kids toys, poisoned pet food, a bunch of rich people on TV trying to explain why they have hundreds of millions in salary while their companies failed and a very divided public.

Marty

clhct1@aol.com (feel free to write)

]]> Sat, 01 Nov 2008 09:29:04 -0400
This downturn is NOT about Subprime mortgages and housing, that is the symptom of the disease which has been the decimation of the good paying job market for 10 years.

I am a CPA in CT . In 2006 the savings rate in our country went negative for the first time since the Great Depression. Inflation had been running way higher than cost of living increases. Decreases in benefits and pensions offered by companies also hurt.

The average person became unable to pay their bills. Many FIXED mortgages are defaulting and PRIME defaults now outnumber subprime defaults.

The problem is not the house cost as most borrowers can just call up their lender and get a legit modification right now. ITs the cost of everything else.

When I moved into my house the cost of a tank of heating oil was 200 bucks, it rose to 1000 bucks and now its about 800. Gas was 1.50 a gallon and rose to 4.5 (now down to about 2.60) . Property taxes were 3000 now 6000. . Food went out of control this year.

In the 1970s inflation resulted in huge increases in the cost of living adjustments for social security recipients. From 1976-1986 I believe COLA increases were 75% . My father who worked for the Govt at the time had even higher COLAs with his performance based increases.

So you could be ten years later in an inflationary period and be making 75-90% more to pay your fixed debts.

This is how we crawled out of the last inflationary period into growth. People had higher incomes to pay mostly fixed debts.

THis time around due to outsourcing , and limited investment by our country in THIS COUNTRY, people have gone backwards in income and many at best stayed equal or fell behind inflation. Social security only received about 30% over 10 years in increases while their costs soared out of control. At the same time medicare premium increases ate up a chunk of that as well.

This is the root of the problem. At first people borrowed on credit cards some and paid it off with bonuses and sometimes home equity loans. As things got worse, people got stuck with every larger bills. Millions of high paying jobs have been lost. In 1982 80% of jobs had company or Govt paid for pensions that number is like 18% today. Most had medical ins. Today people are lucky to get it and usually have to pay towards it.

Unemployment doesnt measure underemployment.

The bottom line ? Until this country invests in infrastructure, alternative energy, energy development in general, the space program etc etc we are not going to see a recovery.

The standard of living is evening out across the world due to the greed and concentration of wealth once again the masses cant afford life in the USA. This means prices will adjust dramatically and people will just not spend.

We have stood by while more debt was added to the federal deficit in 8 years than in the last 200 of our country and while the uber rich got richer without the need to invest in new companies here in the US due to outsourcing.

We watched our Pet food contain poison, our kids toys contaminated with lead , all because we could get it cheaper from China.

Well the new news is Amercan workers are going to be as cheap as the new China, welcome to the new America.

Like I said its not SUBPRIME mortgages , its a symptom of the jobs , opportunity mix here. As always the same Govt that just a year ago told you the "economy was doing well, the jobs market was strong" is telling you its the "sub-prime mortgages"

The same people that told you we were "running out of oil" and "China was using all our oil" when $147 dollars a barrel oil prices were bankrupting the middle class, and encouraged you to "drill more NOW" while oil now is sitting at $64 bucks a barrel

The same people that give 25 billion to Citibank on the verge of failure only to allow them to pay 25 billion in bonuses ..

The Greed, speculation, concentration of wealth , corruption, selling out of the manufacturing base , war , all without an investment in the future of our country's new industries has been and is the problem.

We have been left with a huge mess, leaded kids toys, poisoned pet food, a bunch of rich people on TV trying to explain why they have hundreds of millions in salary while their companies failed and a very divided public.

Marty

clhct1@aol.com (feel free to write)

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102872-signs-of-an-economic-bottoming-process?source=feed#comment-294117 294117 Marty]]> Thu, 30 Oct 2008 08:47:55 -0400 Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99510-buffett-and-cramer-agree-it-s-time-to-buy-stocks?source=feed#comment-280365 280365
He recently (like 3 weeks ago) called a bottom. Anyone that backed up the truck had the truck fall on them.

Cramer is a smart guy, decent guy, and I dont think many people have his degree of market knowledge. However when things are in this type of mess following any "leader" could be disasterous. People were "playing the market" like the lottery and the "Fast Money" crew was even worse. Heck they were riding that clearly speculative bubble from stock to stock (the coal, the fertilizer the oil etc).

While this might be the time to invest, Cramer thought it was weeks ago as well. This might be the one time that surprises everyone and proved Cramer wrong yet again.

A credit induced liquidation for cash is not a usual market event.

We all hope it gets better, and I hope as this article states , better times are coming as per these two men.

Marty]]> Sun, 12 Oct 2008 08:31:22 -0400
He recently (like 3 weeks ago) called a bottom. Anyone that backed up the truck had the truck fall on them.

Cramer is a smart guy, decent guy, and I dont think many people have his degree of market knowledge. However when things are in this type of mess following any "leader" could be disasterous. People were "playing the market" like the lottery and the "Fast Money" crew was even worse. Heck they were riding that clearly speculative bubble from stock to stock (the coal, the fertilizer the oil etc).

While this might be the time to invest, Cramer thought it was weeks ago as well. This might be the one time that surprises everyone and proved Cramer wrong yet again.

A credit induced liquidation for cash is not a usual market event.

We all hope it gets better, and I hope as this article states , better times are coming as per these two men.

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95329-ebay-is-a-losing-bid-barron-s?source=feed#comment-253879 253879
Another huge issue is that with seller contentment way down, other factors like the worst economy since the Depression have Ebay taking the heat for all problems even though generated by less consumer spending in a bad economy.

While people do unload junk when the economy slows down there seems to be fewer reasons to unload it on ebay. Few if any bids, constantly changing direction etc. The fastest growing areas of the market (local trading and buy online pick up in person/store) were persued by Ebay as "Ebay Local" announced, then burried while Craigslist grew at 90% over the last few years.

The potential is here, I am not really sure what the problem is. You need people that understand why Ebay worked to replace the consultant types, or at least take them somewhere and hit em in the head with some water balloons! LOL

Marty]]> Sun, 14 Sep 2008 08:52:08 -0400
Another huge issue is that with seller contentment way down, other factors like the worst economy since the Depression have Ebay taking the heat for all problems even though generated by less consumer spending in a bad economy.

While people do unload junk when the economy slows down there seems to be fewer reasons to unload it on ebay. Few if any bids, constantly changing direction etc. The fastest growing areas of the market (local trading and buy online pick up in person/store) were persued by Ebay as "Ebay Local" announced, then burried while Craigslist grew at 90% over the last few years.

The potential is here, I am not really sure what the problem is. You need people that understand why Ebay worked to replace the consultant types, or at least take them somewhere and hit em in the head with some water balloons! LOL

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94245-a-rustbelt-revival-from-doom-to-boom?source=feed#comment-247377 247377 Marty]]> Sun, 07 Sep 2008 09:47:58 -0400 Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88767-housing-crisis-likely-to-wipe-out-two-decades-of-family-earned-wealth?source=feed#comment-222078 222078 The outsourcing of jobs and inflation running well over announced rates combined with a lack of investment in this country has produced a situation where costs of living are way in excess of the ability people have to pay their bills. Sub-prime borrowers were just the weakest link. Look at AMEX and other banks recent news on their prime borrowers increasing their defaults. When gas, heating oil and the cost of food soar to create another monthly mortgage amount something has to give.

Much of the divide between the "high saving types accusing the younger generation" and the "wasteful types in the young generation" is merely because the former rode the bubble up and cashed down.

My dad bought his first home for 20k, sold it for 60k, his second for 107k (a real stretch for him at the time) and sold it for $450k.

Many people like him only had money because they could tap the equity to send kids to school, trade down to cash out to retirement.

Some of this younger group gets out a college which costs 10x as much as when their parents went, into a housing market which was high and if everything else didnt go haywire they would be able to afford the mortgage as well.

Right now the lack of opportunity, outsourcing of not only manufacturing but service jobs as well, combined with a total lack of investment in the infrastructure and technologies of the future here at home has led to a longer term problem that wont be easily fixed..

MA in CT]]> Mon, 04 Aug 2008 08:33:27 -0400 The outsourcing of jobs and inflation running well over announced rates combined with a lack of investment in this country has produced a situation where costs of living are way in excess of the ability people have to pay their bills. Sub-prime borrowers were just the weakest link. Look at AMEX and other banks recent news on their prime borrowers increasing their defaults. When gas, heating oil and the cost of food soar to create another monthly mortgage amount something has to give.

Much of the divide between the "high saving types accusing the younger generation" and the "wasteful types in the young generation" is merely because the former rode the bubble up and cashed down.

My dad bought his first home for 20k, sold it for 60k, his second for 107k (a real stretch for him at the time) and sold it for $450k.

Many people like him only had money because they could tap the equity to send kids to school, trade down to cash out to retirement.

Some of this younger group gets out a college which costs 10x as much as when their parents went, into a housing market which was high and if everything else didnt go haywire they would be able to afford the mortgage as well.

Right now the lack of opportunity, outsourcing of not only manufacturing but service jobs as well, combined with a total lack of investment in the infrastructure and technologies of the future here at home has led to a longer term problem that wont be easily fixed..

MA in CT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87678-amazon-checkout-stiff-competition-for-paypal?source=feed#comment-218332 218332
PS Are you seeing any trends with the economy from your end? Less high end buying? More emphasis on free shipping? Any movement to the Walmart/Ace hardware shop online pick up in person? Thanks! clhct1@aol.com]]> Wed, 30 Jul 2008 10:33:27 -0400
PS Are you seeing any trends with the economy from your end? Less high end buying? More emphasis on free shipping? Any movement to the Walmart/Ace hardware shop online pick up in person? Thanks! clhct1@aol.com]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87390-housing-no-bottom-yet-in-sight?source=feed#comment-217201 217201
Probably the only thing I see in favor of the housing market is the extreme negativity , which usually means things might be close to a bottoming process.

What we need in this country is fairly simple..

1- Get these bozos out of office. Give me Obama or McCain, anyone with a brain, a mind towards tending the record deficits and working across the aisle with the other party. This is America, not red nor blue states but people that can and will work together to solve problems.

2- Start Building the "NEW AMERICA" we need

a- Infrastructure spending
b- Reinvigorated Space Program
c- Alternative energy development on a grand scale

We have spent many of the last years fighting a war with no material benefit, we need to invest in this country once again and also repair our image in the world.

As a CPA in the northeast I can say the economy will be a huge challenge. I see the main problem is the concentration of wealth. Through outsourcing and exporting, large companies maintain wealth but distribute to far fewer here in the US.

The profits of US companies are a subject for study in themselves. In the early 1980s 85% of jobs provided a company paid for pension and most had full benefits for insurance. Now 15% have company pensions and maybe 20-30% have full medical coverage. The more you take out of the pockets of workers the more "companies seem to earn" the multiple of which accrues to shareholders.

401k wealth for most is a myth. 52% of 401k holder took a premature distribution last year. People are tapped out, this country has suffered the biggest period of mismanagement in its history.

What worries me most is the group that stands to benefit from keeping the status quo. Before the last presidential election they pulled the Thurs evening Bin Laden video out, this time from what I read and hear from others it will be worse. An incoming Obama might lead to a pre election war with Iran or an elected Obama a post election pre inauguration war. Those with the money and power dont give it up easily to those seeking the level playing field and America for all.

Id just remember what I said and hope that come next January you can all say, gosh he was wrong (I hope). IF you want a Depression the war scenario is the one way I see that happening. Absent that nightmare scenario I see either new man bringing us out of this mess.

MA in CT]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 08:37:50 -0400
Probably the only thing I see in favor of the housing market is the extreme negativity , which usually means things might be close to a bottoming process.

What we need in this country is fairly simple..

1- Get these bozos out of office. Give me Obama or McCain, anyone with a brain, a mind towards tending the record deficits and working across the aisle with the other party. This is America, not red nor blue states but people that can and will work together to solve problems.

2- Start Building the "NEW AMERICA" we need

a- Infrastructure spending
b- Reinvigorated Space Program
c- Alternative energy development on a grand scale

We have spent many of the last years fighting a war with no material benefit, we need to invest in this country once again and also repair our image in the world.

As a CPA in the northeast I can say the economy will be a huge challenge. I see the main problem is the concentration of wealth. Through outsourcing and exporting, large companies maintain wealth but distribute to far fewer here in the US.

The profits of US companies are a subject for study in themselves. In the early 1980s 85% of jobs provided a company paid for pension and most had full benefits for insurance. Now 15% have company pensions and maybe 20-30% have full medical coverage. The more you take out of the pockets of workers the more "companies seem to earn" the multiple of which accrues to shareholders.

401k wealth for most is a myth. 52% of 401k holder took a premature distribution last year. People are tapped out, this country has suffered the biggest period of mismanagement in its history.

What worries me most is the group that stands to benefit from keeping the status quo. Before the last presidential election they pulled the Thurs evening Bin Laden video out, this time from what I read and hear from others it will be worse. An incoming Obama might lead to a pre election war with Iran or an elected Obama a post election pre inauguration war. Those with the money and power dont give it up easily to those seeking the level playing field and America for all.

Id just remember what I said and hope that come next January you can all say, gosh he was wrong (I hope). IF you want a Depression the war scenario is the one way I see that happening. Absent that nightmare scenario I see either new man bringing us out of this mess.

MA in CT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85669-historic-financial-collapse-underway?source=feed#comment-209766 209766
- In 1999 the Nasdaq was 5000 its 2200 or so now. In 1989 as the Japanese real estate bubble burst the Nikeii Average was 40,000 its 18,000 now 20 years later. Their real estate market retraced 20 years of gains as well. I feel it is not totally out of the realm of possibility that a much longer recovery trend like that in Japan can happen here.

-Regardless of the economy there are other factors -HUGE outflow of investment funds to baby boomers retiring. These people were able to save more than the next generations AND had the benefit of company pensions (also invested) that will now be coming out of the market just as new money in gets tougher as people cant save.

-Additional Risk - State and Local revenue -People are not driving on toll roads as much and they need to raise tolls. Property taxes are going to be a nightmare to collect, and sales taxes are down. There are some serious risks in that environment to state and local Govt spending (and related bonds etc)

-Not sure if I agree on the gold thing. The last year has shown you might have been better off buying food that you can store , things like rice , flour etc LOL But there is a valid argument in the currency collapse market.

THOSE THINGS SAID...

As a CPA in the northeast part of the country I have seen this mess coming for over 2 years. Just like the signs were clear to me 2 years ago I am seeing some limited signs of the seeds of recovery taking place. It could very well be far off but let me tell you about the few positive things I have seen..

1- The small business credit crunch seemed to ease when the Fed lowered rates. I dont know why but between Oct 07-March 08, it seemed like noone had money, now people seem to be hanging in there .

2- Some clients are reporting better sales (surprising even themselves). In the last 2 years I have not had a handful of people telling me anything good the same day but I am starting to get those reports.

3- Some new business formation is going on.

4- Looked into details of some financial stocks reports. IT appears to me that places like Citibank and Merrill Lynch are 6 months away from a turnaround. For example, Merrill has reported 40 billion in some odd losses already. They only have 4 billion or so left in CDOS in total.

5- Private people (like Boone Pickens for example with the Energy plan) are starting to step up to the plate with ideas.

There is an all bets off death scenario though. That is if we get involved in another war. Then I think its over.

Id like to state one more thing..

from a year ago to about 6 months ago the Govt essentially lied about inflation, unemployment and the jobs market.

Now the facts are out there. At least people are playing cards with the reality deck now. The risks are out there. Just articles like this one might show a bottoming process.

I have been very negative on things but call it as I see it. I do see some things moving in the right direction. It might be a dead cat bounce as they say but I am hopeful that we are wrong and things will turn, everyone makes out better that way and ill eat crow anyday over not having anything to eat!

Marty ]]> Sun, 20 Jul 2008 10:32:18 -0400
- In 1999 the Nasdaq was 5000 its 2200 or so now. In 1989 as the Japanese real estate bubble burst the Nikeii Average was 40,000 its 18,000 now 20 years later. Their real estate market retraced 20 years of gains as well. I feel it is not totally out of the realm of possibility that a much longer recovery trend like that in Japan can happen here.

-Regardless of the economy there are other factors -HUGE outflow of investment funds to baby boomers retiring. These people were able to save more than the next generations AND had the benefit of company pensions (also invested) that will now be coming out of the market just as new money in gets tougher as people cant save.

-Additional Risk - State and Local revenue -People are not driving on toll roads as much and they need to raise tolls. Property taxes are going to be a nightmare to collect, and sales taxes are down. There are some serious risks in that environment to state and local Govt spending (and related bonds etc)

-Not sure if I agree on the gold thing. The last year has shown you might have been better off buying food that you can store , things like rice , flour etc LOL But there is a valid argument in the currency collapse market.

THOSE THINGS SAID...

As a CPA in the northeast part of the country I have seen this mess coming for over 2 years. Just like the signs were clear to me 2 years ago I am seeing some limited signs of the seeds of recovery taking place. It could very well be far off but let me tell you about the few positive things I have seen..

1- The small business credit crunch seemed to ease when the Fed lowered rates. I dont know why but between Oct 07-March 08, it seemed like noone had money, now people seem to be hanging in there .

2- Some clients are reporting better sales (surprising even themselves). In the last 2 years I have not had a handful of people telling me anything good the same day but I am starting to get those reports.

3- Some new business formation is going on.

4- Looked into details of some financial stocks reports. IT appears to me that places like Citibank and Merrill Lynch are 6 months away from a turnaround. For example, Merrill has reported 40 billion in some odd losses already. They only have 4 billion or so left in CDOS in total.

5- Private people (like Boone Pickens for example with the Energy plan) are starting to step up to the plate with ideas.

There is an all bets off death scenario though. That is if we get involved in another war. Then I think its over.

Id like to state one more thing..

from a year ago to about 6 months ago the Govt essentially lied about inflation, unemployment and the jobs market.

Now the facts are out there. At least people are playing cards with the reality deck now. The risks are out there. Just articles like this one might show a bottoming process.

I have been very negative on things but call it as I see it. I do see some things moving in the right direction. It might be a dead cat bounce as they say but I am hopeful that we are wrong and things will turn, everyone makes out better that way and ill eat crow anyday over not having anything to eat!

Marty ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80861-innovate-or-die-ebay-at-a-crossroads?source=feed#comment-183244 183244
While I agree with some of what you say about Ebay. I think the innovation is closer than they think and the problems different than you think.

I do not think the new emphasis on fixed price will kill the higher margin auction business. I think in the long run it will help improve auctions to be just for those items that belong on auction , which will benefit everyone. I see some huge positives, some things they are missing and some mistakes.

Positives..

1- STORES BACK IN CORE-Moving back towards stores in core search with the new Italy model making store items 30 days fixed price items for store like insertion fees based on store subscription level.

2- INTERNATIONAL EXPOSURE-(Randy dive into this one on your blog)- This is a total homerun and I almost missed some of the reasons it would be. Stage one our ebay.com items can be promoted on the UK site. Our intl sales have really picked up, but we are also getting better regional indexing in search engines AND there are people that hop around ebay sites that find our stuff on the UK site, like ebay.it buyers and others. If this program expands, this will ping-pong people all over the place in terms of buyers and items. It is really working and Id love to share some stats with you for review.

MISSING...

1- EBay Local - After announcing this program at Ebay Live they died on it. Currently shop online pick up in person is the fastest growing area of the internet leading players like Walmart.com and others with 40% plus growth rates. While not perfect for all Ebayers all of Ebays properties play right into this idea. From Stubhub's tickets to larger local items to vehicles , educational specialists and trading assistants , the time for local hubs has returned. In my opinion they are missing a huge opportunity that an Amazon cant match.

MISTAKES...

1- DSR/FEEDBACK - While it is clear there have been some positives from the DSR/Feedback changes I think the effects on the community have been devastating in many cases. I also think the goal to show more differentiation of sellers is really not being met.
For example, sellers that worked hard and had 99.9 percent feedback ratings, found their nuetrals become negatives in the calculations and a new 98.4 percent rating. That does nothing to discourage buyers but has upset that seller. Second, and this is something Id love your opinion on. Buyers seem to buy more items from larger sellers with lower DSRs and lower feedback despite the search exposure decrease they are supposed to get. In looking over some stats it seemed to me that (as reported by others) larger sellers fell in the bottom 50-60% of Ebay sellers in DSRs and in feedback and not only had high sales but the fastest increasing sales. This shows me that buyers really dont care all that much if someone has a 4.9 or a 4.6 or 99.9 or 98.5 feedback. I worry that the effect on the community is just another thing that is forcing people off the site. Its not one thing its many things over time. I want those people here as they are providing diversity of items and they are also buyers.

Thanks for your thoughts on things.

Marty]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 09:44:24 -0400
While I agree with some of what you say about Ebay. I think the innovation is closer than they think and the problems different than you think.

I do not think the new emphasis on fixed price will kill the higher margin auction business. I think in the long run it will help improve auctions to be just for those items that belong on auction , which will benefit everyone. I see some huge positives, some things they are missing and some mistakes.

Positives..

1- STORES BACK IN CORE-Moving back towards stores in core search with the new Italy model making store items 30 days fixed price items for store like insertion fees based on store subscription level.

2- INTERNATIONAL EXPOSURE-(Randy dive into this one on your blog)- This is a total homerun and I almost missed some of the reasons it would be. Stage one our ebay.com items can be promoted on the UK site. Our intl sales have really picked up, but we are also getting better regional indexing in search engines AND there are people that hop around ebay sites that find our stuff on the UK site, like ebay.it buyers and others. If this program expands, this will ping-pong people all over the place in terms of buyers and items. It is really working and Id love to share some stats with you for review.

MISSING...

1- EBay Local - After announcing this program at Ebay Live they died on it. Currently shop online pick up in person is the fastest growing area of the internet leading players like Walmart.com and others with 40% plus growth rates. While not perfect for all Ebayers all of Ebays properties play right into this idea. From Stubhub's tickets to larger local items to vehicles , educational specialists and trading assistants , the time for local hubs has returned. In my opinion they are missing a huge opportunity that an Amazon cant match.

MISTAKES...

1- DSR/FEEDBACK - While it is clear there have been some positives from the DSR/Feedback changes I think the effects on the community have been devastating in many cases. I also think the goal to show more differentiation of sellers is really not being met.
For example, sellers that worked hard and had 99.9 percent feedback ratings, found their nuetrals become negatives in the calculations and a new 98.4 percent rating. That does nothing to discourage buyers but has upset that seller. Second, and this is something Id love your opinion on. Buyers seem to buy more items from larger sellers with lower DSRs and lower feedback despite the search exposure decrease they are supposed to get. In looking over some stats it seemed to me that (as reported by others) larger sellers fell in the bottom 50-60% of Ebay sellers in DSRs and in feedback and not only had high sales but the fastest increasing sales. This shows me that buyers really dont care all that much if someone has a 4.9 or a 4.6 or 99.9 or 98.5 feedback. I worry that the effect on the community is just another thing that is forcing people off the site. Its not one thing its many things over time. I want those people here as they are providing diversity of items and they are also buyers.

Thanks for your thoughts on things.

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77740-donald-trump-on-oil?source=feed#comment-170250 170250
The facts are in... The Govt stated Gas prices fell last month when they went up 12%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (IN A MONTH).

When asked about it the Govt mentioned "seasonal adjustments" HUH?

So as Mark Haines pointed out, we can go up to the pump and ask for the "Seasonally adjusted price".

Apparently food inflation is somewhere in the neighborhood of 40% now.

People need to wake the heck up. Cant anyone do simple math?

In any case Im tired of yelling about it, I give up the morons rule

Marty]]> Mon, 19 May 2008 20:27:21 -0400
The facts are in... The Govt stated Gas prices fell last month when they went up 12%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (IN A MONTH).

When asked about it the Govt mentioned "seasonal adjustments" HUH?

So as Mark Haines pointed out, we can go up to the pump and ask for the "Seasonally adjusted price".

Apparently food inflation is somewhere in the neighborhood of 40% now.

People need to wake the heck up. Cant anyone do simple math?

In any case Im tired of yelling about it, I give up the morons rule

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77584-don-t-believe-paulson-s-l-2-0-the-bank-failure-redux?source=feed#comment-169285 169285
One would think this would happen. The problem is , the things inflating are the things people have to pay for or the things they own. Without the WAGE inflation there is no ability for prices on homes to go up. In the 70s and 80s there was wage inflation.

I will give you a simple example.

During the "terrible inflation of the Carter years" (As we are told to call it), peoples wages ALSO went up. Social security was indexed 75% over 10 years. At the end of the inflation, everyones income was up 75%-100% or more. Now, the higher incomes could easily pay down the mostly fixed debts and that allowed asset prices to increase. When your costs go up, but your income does not (even further distorted by todays lack of benefits) prices on homes will not go up because people cannot afford them.

This is a real mess, and it will take good leadership. The concentration of wealth is so great this time that even the upper middle class is in trouble.

Marty]]> Sat, 17 May 2008 09:53:42 -0400
One would think this would happen. The problem is , the things inflating are the things people have to pay for or the things they own. Without the WAGE inflation there is no ability for prices on homes to go up. In the 70s and 80s there was wage inflation.

I will give you a simple example.

During the "terrible inflation of the Carter years" (As we are told to call it), peoples wages ALSO went up. Social security was indexed 75% over 10 years. At the end of the inflation, everyones income was up 75%-100% or more. Now, the higher incomes could easily pay down the mostly fixed debts and that allowed asset prices to increase. When your costs go up, but your income does not (even further distorted by todays lack of benefits) prices on homes will not go up because people cannot afford them.

This is a real mess, and it will take good leadership. The concentration of wealth is so great this time that even the upper middle class is in trouble.

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77584-don-t-believe-paulson-s-l-2-0-the-bank-failure-redux?source=feed#comment-168699 168699
Just in the last few days the Govt announced inflation was 2.4% and gas prices FELL last month!

In a nutshell, inflation has been running rampant. It is the additional costs layered on by inflation that have left people unable to pay their bills, not their mortgage. Between 1978-1986 the Govt indexed social security 75% to keep up with inflation. In the last 8 years that number has been 25%.

So lets find the 2-3% inflation. Here are some real numbers that people are paying in my area.

Heating oil up 350% in 10 years
Gas up 300% in 10 years
Medical insurance, family coverage up 500% in ten years
Taxes in my town up on average 86%
Electricity in much of CT up as much as 74% in the last few years alone!
Food inflation, heck we have things that went up 30% in a month but most food items are at highs except for meats because they are killing the animals as the feed is too expensive, wait til fall.

Thus with technology and outsourcing putting a lid in wages ,there is no pressure to raise wages. Real income is declining much faster than the Govt states. 2 days ago they said it declined 1 % based on 2.4% inflation. If inflation is 10% real income is declining by 9%.

People are making less, not more, have less benefits, and less pensions than in prior years. Good paying jobs have been replaced by jobs with lower pay and less benefits. Please note the recent statistics in BusinessWeek in the differences between men and women in the job crisis and how women have less job losses because they are working in those service jobs which often pay less.

In my client base I do not see any problems with subprime loans. I see a lot of people cutting their spending, trying to keep their businesses running.

The ultimate irony is the same Govt that told you the economy was doing well, the jobs market was strong and inflation tame, is now handing out money telling you to spend it.

This is way worse than people think. Student loans might not fund. Those auction rate securities have 320 billion in peoples funds frozen, some earmarked for college. Inflation/foreclosures... pullback is now entering round two. In NJ they have to raise tolls because people are driving LESS and paying less tolls!!!! Driving is way down yet fuel prices soar.

Only the super rich are making it this time and they will watch their saved dollars depreciate right along with eveyrone else.

Id love to talk to you about what I am seeing and compare notes. My email is clhct1@aol.com

Marty]]> Fri, 16 May 2008 09:24:40 -0400
Just in the last few days the Govt announced inflation was 2.4% and gas prices FELL last month!

In a nutshell, inflation has been running rampant. It is the additional costs layered on by inflation that have left people unable to pay their bills, not their mortgage. Between 1978-1986 the Govt indexed social security 75% to keep up with inflation. In the last 8 years that number has been 25%.

So lets find the 2-3% inflation. Here are some real numbers that people are paying in my area.

Heating oil up 350% in 10 years
Gas up 300% in 10 years
Medical insurance, family coverage up 500% in ten years
Taxes in my town up on average 86%
Electricity in much of CT up as much as 74% in the last few years alone!
Food inflation, heck we have things that went up 30% in a month but most food items are at highs except for meats because they are killing the animals as the feed is too expensive, wait til fall.

Thus with technology and outsourcing putting a lid in wages ,there is no pressure to raise wages. Real income is declining much faster than the Govt states. 2 days ago they said it declined 1 % based on 2.4% inflation. If inflation is 10% real income is declining by 9%.

People are making less, not more, have less benefits, and less pensions than in prior years. Good paying jobs have been replaced by jobs with lower pay and less benefits. Please note the recent statistics in BusinessWeek in the differences between men and women in the job crisis and how women have less job losses because they are working in those service jobs which often pay less.

In my client base I do not see any problems with subprime loans. I see a lot of people cutting their spending, trying to keep their businesses running.

The ultimate irony is the same Govt that told you the economy was doing well, the jobs market was strong and inflation tame, is now handing out money telling you to spend it.

This is way worse than people think. Student loans might not fund. Those auction rate securities have 320 billion in peoples funds frozen, some earmarked for college. Inflation/foreclosures... pullback is now entering round two. In NJ they have to raise tolls because people are driving LESS and paying less tolls!!!! Driving is way down yet fuel prices soar.

Only the super rich are making it this time and they will watch their saved dollars depreciate right along with eveyrone else.

Id love to talk to you about what I am seeing and compare notes. My email is clhct1@aol.com

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74068-amazon-toying-with-vertical-integration?source=feed#comment-157071 157071
One risk I see though is that much of Amazon's recent success came from a few mistakes Ebay made by allowing millions of items to transition off the site when it raised fees and made some comments about its own stores product that left some bewildered.

However, Ebay has lowered fees, attracted many of the larger sellers back and also is working on numerous trials which seem to imply lower fees are coming (from blog posts I have read). It is not so much the people that had moved but the line of people that follow when people have success (as they have on Amazon). When this process reverses ,Amazon will lose that surge to the growth profile.

Marty]]> Sat, 26 Apr 2008 09:42:09 -0400
One risk I see though is that much of Amazon's recent success came from a few mistakes Ebay made by allowing millions of items to transition off the site when it raised fees and made some comments about its own stores product that left some bewildered.

However, Ebay has lowered fees, attracted many of the larger sellers back and also is working on numerous trials which seem to imply lower fees are coming (from blog posts I have read). It is not so much the people that had moved but the line of people that follow when people have success (as they have on Amazon). When this process reverses ,Amazon will lose that surge to the growth profile.

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72711-sell-on-the-news-ebay-shares-slide-today?source=feed#comment-152781 152781
In 2006 , when I felt Ebay was firing on all cylinders when stores were in core user growth was humming etc.

1st Quarter 2006

193 million registered users of which 75.4 million or (40%) were active

Two years later ...1st Quarter 2008

309 million registered users of which 83.9 million were active (27%)

First of all note that 116 million registered users were added but Active registered users only went up about 8 million. Those numbers show an incredibly high churn rate.

In the last few weeks Ebay removed the Ebay Wiki which was built by its members (with no notice) , banned Digital delivery of items like Ebooks, templates, etc), announced they are closing down Live Auctions on the site in 8 months or so and keep moving to a homogenized look which is leaving the community befuddled (at best).

At a time when the US dollar is low in relation to foreign currencies the countries users with stronger currencies cannot see US items unless they change their settings on Ebay.

People came to Ebay to sell things in the new world of the internet. It was exciting, it brought a sense of connection and community. First collectibles but then a market for other items developed. As Ebay expanded worldwide more opportunity seemed to be there.

Right now, Ebays mistakes over the last few years are masked by huge foreign currency exchange differences that are making the 50% of its income derived from foreign countries appear much larger and it is not reflective of strong growth in those markets.

Flat earnings in EUROS for example increased 30% in US dollars over 2 years.

When EBay raised fees in the fall of 2006, it lost millions of items and thousands of sellers. Many went to Amazon and other sites. They saw some success and told other people.

Just as Ebay was formed it can unwind. This is my worry.

It is my opinion that on the current track , Ebay will totally lose its ability to turn this around as user growth continues to be strained.

You cannot have those levels of turnover and succeed. This is exactly what brought down AOL when even MSN couldnt catch it back in the days of online services.

I sell on Ebay, and think that led in the right direction, they could re-invent the glory of what they were. My advice would be ...

1- Stop trying to stamp out the diversity

2- Open up the Intl markets to cross border trading instead of protecting them

3- Buy the remaining 80% of Mercado Libre , the south American Ebay and open up those markets .

4- Let all the people connect, and focus on the connection of the world that is found on Ebay through products, ideas, services etc.

5- Integrate all this with their World of Good and Givingworks programs already active in doing good things world-wide.

6- Use IBMS "MAstor" voice translation program to develop international trading on a new level.

7- Develop the Local Markets as they did in 1999-2000 when they were too early (as broadband growth was minimal then). Ebay Local, announced in 2007 was supposed to be coming but then again it might have been canned. With shipping costs an issue lately , local delivery options and just in time buying could be a whole new market.

I love the company, hate the direction. I dont pretend to have all the answers or always be right but I can say I have a good feel for those around me (fellow sellers) and this is not the correct path to grow the site.

Marty

]]> Fri, 18 Apr 2008 08:32:39 -0400
In 2006 , when I felt Ebay was firing on all cylinders when stores were in core user growth was humming etc.

1st Quarter 2006

193 million registered users of which 75.4 million or (40%) were active

Two years later ...1st Quarter 2008

309 million registered users of which 83.9 million were active (27%)

First of all note that 116 million registered users were added but Active registered users only went up about 8 million. Those numbers show an incredibly high churn rate.

In the last few weeks Ebay removed the Ebay Wiki which was built by its members (with no notice) , banned Digital delivery of items like Ebooks, templates, etc), announced they are closing down Live Auctions on the site in 8 months or so and keep moving to a homogenized look which is leaving the community befuddled (at best).

At a time when the US dollar is low in relation to foreign currencies the countries users with stronger currencies cannot see US items unless they change their settings on Ebay.

People came to Ebay to sell things in the new world of the internet. It was exciting, it brought a sense of connection and community. First collectibles but then a market for other items developed. As Ebay expanded worldwide more opportunity seemed to be there.

Right now, Ebays mistakes over the last few years are masked by huge foreign currency exchange differences that are making the 50% of its income derived from foreign countries appear much larger and it is not reflective of strong growth in those markets.

Flat earnings in EUROS for example increased 30% in US dollars over 2 years.

When EBay raised fees in the fall of 2006, it lost millions of items and thousands of sellers. Many went to Amazon and other sites. They saw some success and told other people.

Just as Ebay was formed it can unwind. This is my worry.

It is my opinion that on the current track , Ebay will totally lose its ability to turn this around as user growth continues to be strained.

You cannot have those levels of turnover and succeed. This is exactly what brought down AOL when even MSN couldnt catch it back in the days of online services.

I sell on Ebay, and think that led in the right direction, they could re-invent the glory of what they were. My advice would be ...

1- Stop trying to stamp out the diversity

2- Open up the Intl markets to cross border trading instead of protecting them

3- Buy the remaining 80% of Mercado Libre , the south American Ebay and open up those markets .

4- Let all the people connect, and focus on the connection of the world that is found on Ebay through products, ideas, services etc.

5- Integrate all this with their World of Good and Givingworks programs already active in doing good things world-wide.

6- Use IBMS "MAstor" voice translation program to develop international trading on a new level.

7- Develop the Local Markets as they did in 1999-2000 when they were too early (as broadband growth was minimal then). Ebay Local, announced in 2007 was supposed to be coming but then again it might have been canned. With shipping costs an issue lately , local delivery options and just in time buying could be a whole new market.

I love the company, hate the direction. I dont pretend to have all the answers or always be right but I can say I have a good feel for those around me (fellow sellers) and this is not the correct path to grow the site.

Marty

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71654-e-commerce-set-to-soar-in-2008?source=feed#comment-147504 147504
I think most people see 17% and think health growth across the board when in fact its 30-40% on the already massive electronic, iphones, computers, gaming and much less in other places.

Thoughts on that?

Thanks for all the info you provide. I love the charts above!

Marty]]> Wed, 09 Apr 2008 08:18:21 -0400
I think most people see 17% and think health growth across the board when in fact its 30-40% on the already massive electronic, iphones, computers, gaming and much less in other places.

Thoughts on that?

Thanks for all the info you provide. I love the charts above!

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71328-not-seeing-a-better-safer-ebay?source=feed#comment-146267 146267
All the efforts at security, DSRs , feedback changes, punishments for sellers etc, have left the site a battlefield instead of a rich farmland that will grow the business in the coming years.

Announced improvements never seem to materialize, while the site emphasizes these areas to improve "the buyer experience".

Most sellers do not feel plastering ads all over the site is improving the buyer experience. Many large sellers didnt have great feedback but you know buyers kept buying from them anyway. Just as Walmart has that 70% or lower customer satisfaction rate yet keeps bringing in the buyers.

Too many changes of one kind and not enough excitement and new ideas coming forward. I can give many examples but Im all talked out on this subject. Like everyone else, just keeping up with the changes is a full time job.

Perhaps Ebay will finally finish this cycle of change and move on to better things. The site still inspires passionate comments both positive and negative and it will only be when everyone is silent that the opportunities will end.

Marty]]> Mon, 07 Apr 2008 08:08:50 -0400
All the efforts at security, DSRs , feedback changes, punishments for sellers etc, have left the site a battlefield instead of a rich farmland that will grow the business in the coming years.

Announced improvements never seem to materialize, while the site emphasizes these areas to improve "the buyer experience".

Most sellers do not feel plastering ads all over the site is improving the buyer experience. Many large sellers didnt have great feedback but you know buyers kept buying from them anyway. Just as Walmart has that 70% or lower customer satisfaction rate yet keeps bringing in the buyers.

Too many changes of one kind and not enough excitement and new ideas coming forward. I can give many examples but Im all talked out on this subject. Like everyone else, just keeping up with the changes is a full time job.

Perhaps Ebay will finally finish this cycle of change and move on to better things. The site still inspires passionate comments both positive and negative and it will only be when everyone is silent that the opportunities will end.

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71236-reluctant-banks-let-defaulted-borrowers-stay-in-homes?source=feed#comment-136920 136920
In the past inflationary period of the late 70s to early 80s , the CPI was 75% and that is what social security recipients received. People were getting raises of 6-9% per year. When the inflation ended they used their new higher salaries to pay down their mostly fixed debts. Now due to outsourcing and technology there is a lid on wage inflation. People are going backwards in income while their expenses soar. Make no mistake, the prosperity of the last 6-8 years has been on credit cards, home equity loans and bogus profits built on both. I see this first hand as a CPA in the northeast.

Having seen this downturn coming for over 2 years, I now see small signs of bottoming. It would be nice to see money spent on infrastructure, technology (alternative energies, renewed space programs , high speed transportation systems and such) as things turn since this country has not invested in itself in many years. This would aid the turnaround and put things on a firm foundation.
Marty]]> Sat, 05 Apr 2008 08:56:52 -0400
In the past inflationary period of the late 70s to early 80s , the CPI was 75% and that is what social security recipients received. People were getting raises of 6-9% per year. When the inflation ended they used their new higher salaries to pay down their mostly fixed debts. Now due to outsourcing and technology there is a lid on wage inflation. People are going backwards in income while their expenses soar. Make no mistake, the prosperity of the last 6-8 years has been on credit cards, home equity loans and bogus profits built on both. I see this first hand as a CPA in the northeast.

Having seen this downturn coming for over 2 years, I now see small signs of bottoming. It would be nice to see money spent on infrastructure, technology (alternative energies, renewed space programs , high speed transportation systems and such) as things turn since this country has not invested in itself in many years. This would aid the turnaround and put things on a firm foundation.
Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71046-ebay-watch-q1-predictions-for-ebay-and-marketplaces?source=feed#comment-135866 135866
This quarter past quarter (and judging by todays employment numbers) the following quarter will benefit most from the effect of dollar deflation on the companies global GMV and earnings.

There is some very good news in your article though. Taking the affiliate program in house is way overdue and I think could be a big earnings plus for the company. I think the new fee structure for eBay stores (going back to a 50% listing fee cut) brings EBay store fees to the level before there was a mass exodus of store owners. I hope this brings people back to the site. Cutting media insertion fees to 25 cents including gallery photos is also a useful change.

There are some definate positives. On the negative side Ebay's emphasis on DSR (detailed seller ratings) and changing the decade old feedback system have yet another batch of Ebayers disgusted and leaving.

Personally I love the site. I feel bad when long time sellers/buyers leave and wonder if Ebay is really guaging what is important here.

As you know noone mentioned that NET active user growth figures that Ebay releases quarterly. The line has been down for years and 2 quarters ago this went negative for the first time in the company's history. When you have more users going inactive then new users coming on as active you have something that needs to be changed. I worry about this pattern.

Also , I saw the last few quarters earnings has being suspect.

The currency exchange difference, one time tax effect and the effect of selling near 100 million dollars in ads on the site are all what seemed to boost earnings to me not "organic growth" as you state. Also despite a 4-5 billion two pronged stock buyback which is 2/3 done the stock had falled fropm 42 to less than 30 before the recent bounce after the last announcement.

There are some other moves ebay can make but right now I still see the jury as being out. IF there is a surprise it will be because of currency inflated foreign earnings.

Marty

]]> Thu, 03 Apr 2008 08:44:49 -0400
This quarter past quarter (and judging by todays employment numbers) the following quarter will benefit most from the effect of dollar deflation on the companies global GMV and earnings.

There is some very good news in your article though. Taking the affiliate program in house is way overdue and I think could be a big earnings plus for the company. I think the new fee structure for eBay stores (going back to a 50% listing fee cut) brings EBay store fees to the level before there was a mass exodus of store owners. I hope this brings people back to the site. Cutting media insertion fees to 25 cents including gallery photos is also a useful change.

There are some definate positives. On the negative side Ebay's emphasis on DSR (detailed seller ratings) and changing the decade old feedback system have yet another batch of Ebayers disgusted and leaving.

Personally I love the site. I feel bad when long time sellers/buyers leave and wonder if Ebay is really guaging what is important here.

As you know noone mentioned that NET active user growth figures that Ebay releases quarterly. The line has been down for years and 2 quarters ago this went negative for the first time in the company's history. When you have more users going inactive then new users coming on as active you have something that needs to be changed. I worry about this pattern.

Also , I saw the last few quarters earnings has being suspect.

The currency exchange difference, one time tax effect and the effect of selling near 100 million dollars in ads on the site are all what seemed to boost earnings to me not "organic growth" as you state. Also despite a 4-5 billion two pronged stock buyback which is 2/3 done the stock had falled fropm 42 to less than 30 before the recent bounce after the last announcement.

There are some other moves ebay can make but right now I still see the jury as being out. IF there is a surprise it will be because of currency inflated foreign earnings.

Marty

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70019-analysts-ebay-s-current-quarter-tracking-well?source=feed#comment-132373 132373
That said Ebay knows how to make their numbers what they need. I am not as concerned with listing numbers as I am with the direction the site is going and the response within the community.

The stock is due for a bounce, I mean they have been in the middle of a 4 billion plus stock buyback as the stock had declined 40% or so. It is a good company, but I would like to see better advertising, a sign of a partnership with its users to bring the company forward and less tension.

While Ebay has focused on feedback and detailed seller ratings changes and moved fees up then down , it hasnt brought anything new and exciting forward, has disappointed with its media campaigns and has unnecessarily angered many in its user base.

I am hopeful this period will be put behind it, and things will return to the good times of the past.

Marty]]> Thu, 27 Mar 2008 10:14:51 -0400
That said Ebay knows how to make their numbers what they need. I am not as concerned with listing numbers as I am with the direction the site is going and the response within the community.

The stock is due for a bounce, I mean they have been in the middle of a 4 billion plus stock buyback as the stock had declined 40% or so. It is a good company, but I would like to see better advertising, a sign of a partnership with its users to bring the company forward and less tension.

While Ebay has focused on feedback and detailed seller ratings changes and moved fees up then down , it hasnt brought anything new and exciting forward, has disappointed with its media campaigns and has unnecessarily angered many in its user base.

I am hopeful this period will be put behind it, and things will return to the good times of the past.

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69999-ebay-watch-uk-paypal-requirements-online-auction-wars-listings-update?source=feed#comment-131701 131701
So the question is if you cut your prices in half and have 13% more business is that a positive? I am not so sure. I think part of those numbers are due to the fee decrease and part is Thailand coming online and also Store insertion fee cuts. At least the numbers are moving in a positive direction.

I do think sentiment within the seller community is at one of the lowest points I have seen it. I am hoping this is just a short term reactionary phase to all the changes. Ebay needs to get back on track with new and creative ad campaigns, bring out and expand exciting new features (such as its announced "EBay Local" expansion) and get out of the feedback, DSR stars loop and back to making things move forward.

Marty]]> Wed, 26 Mar 2008 09:06:25 -0400
So the question is if you cut your prices in half and have 13% more business is that a positive? I am not so sure. I think part of those numbers are due to the fee decrease and part is Thailand coming online and also Store insertion fee cuts. At least the numbers are moving in a positive direction.

I do think sentiment within the seller community is at one of the lowest points I have seen it. I am hoping this is just a short term reactionary phase to all the changes. Ebay needs to get back on track with new and creative ad campaigns, bring out and expand exciting new features (such as its announced "EBay Local" expansion) and get out of the feedback, DSR stars loop and back to making things move forward.

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68727-ebay-watch-ebay-s-new-fees-success-skype-on-iphone?source=feed#comment-127522 127522
As to the core site and Wingo's comments. I am not sure I agree. One has to remember that core insertion fees have dropped dramatically with barely a budge in listings. Much less listing fee revenue is coming in. Media sellers saw the largest decrease in fees and I believe Ebay is marketing more in those areas to bring back that business (good move) so I think Scott's info might be slanted towards the types of sellers in those categories. I definately do not see evidence of increasing sell through in a wide range of categories. Listing counts are still below 2005 levels at this time of year and most store sellers I know are struggling with sales.

The stock has no shown improving performance despite a huge stock buyback in place.

I think a muddled community message is what is hurting most. While I am not a boycott person myself I think the issues run deeper than just fees and Ebay needs to recognize this.

The few people that posted to Scotts blog seem to sell Ebooks and Ebay advice, are there any actual media sellers reporting better results? I havent seen any and Medved shows mixed results across the various categories with wide swings in sell through even in a weeks time.

I do believe that Ebay bringing media items back to the site is good for the long term health of the site though and while I dont see sitewide improvement myself, I am hopeful that we will see this soon.

Marty]]> Mon, 17 Mar 2008 08:16:06 -0400
As to the core site and Wingo's comments. I am not sure I agree. One has to remember that core insertion fees have dropped dramatically with barely a budge in listings. Much less listing fee revenue is coming in. Media sellers saw the largest decrease in fees and I believe Ebay is marketing more in those areas to bring back that business (good move) so I think Scott's info might be slanted towards the types of sellers in those categories. I definately do not see evidence of increasing sell through in a wide range of categories. Listing counts are still below 2005 levels at this time of year and most store sellers I know are struggling with sales.

The stock has no shown improving performance despite a huge stock buyback in place.

I think a muddled community message is what is hurting most. While I am not a boycott person myself I think the issues run deeper than just fees and Ebay needs to recognize this.

The few people that posted to Scotts blog seem to sell Ebooks and Ebay advice, are there any actual media sellers reporting better results? I havent seen any and Medved shows mixed results across the various categories with wide swings in sell through even in a weeks time.

I do believe that Ebay bringing media items back to the site is good for the long term health of the site though and while I dont see sitewide improvement myself, I am hopeful that we will see this soon.

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68049-the-real-issues-behind-declining-home-equity-levels?source=feed#comment-125933 125933
When people lose jobs and are faced with 1000 a month health care premiums, or have 850 dollar a month bills for heating oil and huge gas bills and electricity costs they are in essence carrying another mortgage. Inflation is off the charts. Why do you think gold is going up?

I know retirees that are selling homes that have no mortgages because they are scared they wont have enough money for retirement because expenses have grown so much in the last 5 years.

Marty]]> Thu, 13 Mar 2008 10:06:45 -0400
When people lose jobs and are faced with 1000 a month health care premiums, or have 850 dollar a month bills for heating oil and huge gas bills and electricity costs they are in essence carrying another mortgage. Inflation is off the charts. Why do you think gold is going up?

I know retirees that are selling homes that have no mortgages because they are scared they wont have enough money for retirement because expenses have grown so much in the last 5 years.

Marty]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68049-the-real-issues-behind-declining-home-equity-levels?source=feed#comment-125490 125490
Talk about the home ownership/subprime mess is a diversion from the real issue, which is inflation.

Rampant inflation in everything people have to spend money on, combined with wage stagnation or even wage deflation have created a situation where people dont have the money to pay their bills.

It is not "falling house prices". It is the fact the price of almost everything you have to spend money on is going up in price by double digits while good paying jobs are leaving and even those in good jobs are getting modest raises at best.

The #1 employer in Ohio now is Walmart. You are going to get Walmart low prices on housing if jobs cannot keep up.

Here is a comparison I have been trying to get out there.

During the 1970s inflation, the cost of living adjustment to social security totalled 75% from 1976-1984. Other Govt jobs, pensions and even private sector jobs were getting 7-10% increases over those years. When inflation ended, people used their now inflated incomes to pay down their mostly fixed debts.

In the last 8 years the same inflation adjustment totalled 25%. This is way below the real rate of inflation. Outsourcing has kept a lid on remaining job wage levels and in general "downsized" the wage levels of the American family.

Here are some real numbers on inflation. The top set is from AOL news regarding food price increase THIS YEAR ALONE, at the bottom I listed some prices of things in my area of the northeast US.

It is my contention that it is not the mortgages themselves but the increases in the prices of everything else that is leading people to not have the money to pay their bills. Subprime is just the first domino to fall, student loans, auto loans and other consumer loans are already following.

Check out this inflation compared to what the Govt reports..

Here is more of that low inflation for you (source AOL NEWS)

White Bread
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.14
Dec. 2007 Price: $1.28

Increase: 12.8%

Fresh Whole Milk
Fortified, Per Gal.

Dec. 2006 Price: $3.00
Dec. 2007 Price: $3.87

Increase: 28.8%

A Dozen Eggs
Grade A, Large

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.54
Dec. 2007 Price: $2.10

Increase: 36%

All-Purpose Flour
White, Per Lb.

Dec. 2006 Price: $0.32
Dec. 2007 Price: $0.40

Increase: 25.2%

Peanut Butter
Creamy, Per Lb.

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.72
Dec. 2007 Price: $1.88

Increase: 9.4%

American Processed Cheese
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $3.61
Dec. 2007 Price: $3.91

Increase: 8.3%

Red Delicious Apples
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.03
Dec. 2007 Price: $1.12

Increase: 9.2%

Bananas
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $0.50
Dec. 2007 Price: $0.53

Increase: 5.2%

Tomatoes
Field Grown, Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.64
Dec. 2007 Price: $2.15

Increase: 31%

Iceberg Lettuce
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $0.90
Dec. 2007 Price: $0.95

Increase: 5.9%

Sweet Peppers
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.89
Dec. 2007 Price: $2.19

Increase: 15.7%

Lemons
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.66
Dec. 2007 Price: $2.05

Increase: 23.2%

Strawberries
Dry Pint, Per 12 Oz.

Dec. 2006 Price: $2.90
Dec. 2007 Price: $3.07

Increase: 5.9%

Broccoli
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.46
Dec. 2007 Price: $1.66

Increase: 13.4%

Sliced Bacon
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $3.46
Dec. 2007 Price: $3.69

Increase: 6.7%

Ground Chuck
100% Beef, Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $2.61
Dec. 2007 Price: $2.70

Increase: 3.7%

Fresh Whole Chicken
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.06
Dec. 2007 Price: $1.17

Increase: 10.3%

Cola & Potato Chips

Non-Diet Cola, Per 2 Liters
Dec. 2006 Price: $1.14
Dec. 2007 Price: $1.28
Increase: 12.4%

Chips, Per 16 Oz.
Dec. 2006 Price: $3.41
Dec. 2007 Price: $3.65
Increase: 7%

Your Favorite Drinks
Ground Roast Coffee
(Per Pound)
12 Mo. Increase: 18.4%

Orange Juice Concentrate
(12 Ounce Can)
12 Mo. Increase: 13.3%

Red or White Table Wine
(Per Liter)
12 Mo. Increase: 8%

**********************...

Now for some other stats from our area..

Taxes in my town up 86% over 10 years

Gas up 169% over 10 years

Heating oil up 250% over 10 years

Electricity just rose 74% last year for some people but overall up about 100% in ten years.

Cost of full medical benefits for a family at my office up 350% over 7 years
]]> Wed, 12 Mar 2008 08:34:53 -0400
Talk about the home ownership/subprime mess is a diversion from the real issue, which is inflation.

Rampant inflation in everything people have to spend money on, combined with wage stagnation or even wage deflation have created a situation where people dont have the money to pay their bills.

It is not "falling house prices". It is the fact the price of almost everything you have to spend money on is going up in price by double digits while good paying jobs are leaving and even those in good jobs are getting modest raises at best.

The #1 employer in Ohio now is Walmart. You are going to get Walmart low prices on housing if jobs cannot keep up.

Here is a comparison I have been trying to get out there.

During the 1970s inflation, the cost of living adjustment to social security totalled 75% from 1976-1984. Other Govt jobs, pensions and even private sector jobs were getting 7-10% increases over those years. When inflation ended, people used their now inflated incomes to pay down their mostly fixed debts.

In the last 8 years the same inflation adjustment totalled 25%. This is way below the real rate of inflation. Outsourcing has kept a lid on remaining job wage levels and in general "downsized" the wage levels of the American family.

Here are some real numbers on inflation. The top set is from AOL news regarding food price increase THIS YEAR ALONE, at the bottom I listed some prices of things in my area of the northeast US.

It is my contention that it is not the mortgages themselves but the increases in the prices of everything else that is leading people to not have the money to pay their bills. Subprime is just the first domino to fall, student loans, auto loans and other consumer loans are already following.

Check out this inflation compared to what the Govt reports..

Here is more of that low inflation for you (source AOL NEWS)

White Bread
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.14
Dec. 2007 Price: $1.28

Increase: 12.8%

Fresh Whole Milk
Fortified, Per Gal.

Dec. 2006 Price: $3.00
Dec. 2007 Price: $3.87

Increase: 28.8%

A Dozen Eggs
Grade A, Large

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.54
Dec. 2007 Price: $2.10

Increase: 36%

All-Purpose Flour
White, Per Lb.

Dec. 2006 Price: $0.32
Dec. 2007 Price: $0.40

Increase: 25.2%

Peanut Butter
Creamy, Per Lb.

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.72
Dec. 2007 Price: $1.88

Increase: 9.4%

American Processed Cheese
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $3.61
Dec. 2007 Price: $3.91

Increase: 8.3%

Red Delicious Apples
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.03
Dec. 2007 Price: $1.12

Increase: 9.2%

Bananas
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $0.50
Dec. 2007 Price: $0.53

Increase: 5.2%

Tomatoes
Field Grown, Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.64
Dec. 2007 Price: $2.15

Increase: 31%

Iceberg Lettuce
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $0.90
Dec. 2007 Price: $0.95

Increase: 5.9%

Sweet Peppers
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.89
Dec. 2007 Price: $2.19

Increase: 15.7%

Lemons
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.66
Dec. 2007 Price: $2.05

Increase: 23.2%

Strawberries
Dry Pint, Per 12 Oz.

Dec. 2006 Price: $2.90
Dec. 2007 Price: $3.07

Increase: 5.9%

Broccoli
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.46
Dec. 2007 Price: $1.66

Increase: 13.4%

Sliced Bacon
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $3.46
Dec. 2007 Price: $3.69

Increase: 6.7%

Ground Chuck
100% Beef, Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $2.61
Dec. 2007 Price: $2.70

Increase: 3.7%

Fresh Whole Chicken
Per Pound

Dec. 2006 Price: $1.06
Dec. 2007 Price: $1.17

Increase: 10.3%

Cola & Potato Chips

Non-Diet Cola, Per 2 Liters
Dec. 2006 Price: $1.14
Dec. 2007 Price: $1.28
Increase: 12.4%

Chips, Per 16 Oz.
Dec. 2006 Price: $3.41
Dec. 2007 Price: $3.65
Increase: 7%

Your Favorite Drinks
Ground Roast Coffee
(Per Pound)
12 Mo. Increase: 18.4%

Orange Juice Concentrate
(12 Ounce Can)
12 Mo. Increase: 13.3%

Red or White Table Wine
(Per Liter)
12 Mo. Increase: 8%

**********************...

Now for some other stats from our area..

Taxes in my town up 86% over 10 years

Gas up 169% over 10 years

Heating oil up 250% over 10 years

Electricity just rose 74% last year for some people but overall up about 100% in ten years.

Cost of full medical benefits for a family at my office up 350% over 7 years
]]>