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alpha_69

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  • Share Shifts In Indonesia, Another Reason For BlackBerry To Sell Quickly [View article]
    "However, BlackBerry is now rapidly losing market share in Indonesia."

    Title and whole premise of this article is based on one September 2012 opinion piece from a blogger. Where are the facts?
    Aug 14 04:42 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Insiders Getting Restless [View article]
    CPPIB said they are in if there is a possible deal.

    http://bloom.bg/1cR5iUS

    They have $188B in assets and have done deals together with silver Lake before (Skype).
    Aug 9 08:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody's May Downgrade Nokia - Does It Matter For Shareholders? [View article]
    Calculation based on assumptions of semi-annual coupons and 5 year maturity and 1.5% 5 year YTM.
    Jul 23 06:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody's May Downgrade Nokia - Does It Matter For Shareholders? [View article]
    A 5.375% coupon paying bond is priced below par when the risk free rate (treasury yield) is around 1.5% means it is priced at a deep discount. A 5 year risk free bond that pays 5.375% should be priced at around $142.
    Jul 23 06:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody's May Downgrade Nokia - Does It Matter For Shareholders? [View article]
    I made the same mistake. Ba3 is already speculative grade. So a downgrade to B1 may not have too much of an impact on the share price.May be a 5% drop on the day and recover within a month.
    Jul 23 06:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody's May Downgrade Nokia - Does It Matter For Shareholders? [View article]
    Ba3 is still investment grade. Below that is speculative grade. See chart above in the article. Many funds, pension funds etc can only invest in bonds that are investment grade, meaning Ba3 or better (Moody's) or BBB- or better (S&P)
    Jul 22 10:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody's May Downgrade Nokia - Does It Matter For Shareholders? [View article]
    Yes poor correlation when the ratings stayed within investment grade. Downgrade to junk could be a much different story.
    Jul 22 10:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody's May Downgrade Nokia - Does It Matter For Shareholders? [View article]
    Not sure if it will be worth for NOK to issue junk bonds to finance the 50% acquisition of NSN. Cost of Capital will be too high and at that discount rate the investment may be questionable.
    Jul 22 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody's May Downgrade Nokia - Does It Matter For Shareholders? [View article]
    Abu, you and other NOK longs try to find silver lining on all negative NOK news. No worse than the BBRY longs :)

    A downgrade to junk status for NOK bonds will be nothing like the previous downgrades. Many institutional holders and fund managers have investment guidelines that prevent them from holding junk bonds and they have to liquidate including the convertible bonds. Stock price will take a significant hit.

    For the sake of all the NOK longs, let us hope the downgrade to junk status does not happen.
    Jul 22 10:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: So You Think This Is Bad? [View article]
    @Author,

    Why is UK units shipped and revenue 0 in the last two quarters? does not seem correct. I would think UK sales would have been a significant number nor zero.
    Jul 7 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Following both supply chain and sales checks, BMO joins Pac Crest in asserting BB10 (BBRY -1.4%) channel inventories are rising. "Last quarter, we assumed 300k–400k of sell-through on 1M of sell- in for BB 10 devices. We believe May could have an even larger ... discrepancy," says analyst Tim Long. He thinks strong sell-in could let FQ1 sales beat expectations, but doesn't see the momentum lasting. Long also believes FQ1 sub losses could total 2M, and sees falling emerging markets carrier ARPUs pressuring service revenue. Raymond James, meanwhile, thinks BB10 sell-through "might have been slower than expected," and forecasts sub losses of 3M. (Bernstein) (RBC[View news story]
    Wait till Q3 report (Q2 partially as well) when subs will include all the active BBM users on iOS and Android!. Reported subs will grow in double digits.
    Jun 21 10:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Bet On BlackBerry [View article]
    Grate article. BBRY does not Need to be the next Apple or Google. Just keeping the current market share with slightly higher ASP and now lowered operating costs will get them to the black.

    Stock is manipulated by Hedge funds. Whenever a catalyst hit, it will take off just like the short squeeze that happened to NFLX
    Feb 17 10:23 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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