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anon1001

anon1001
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  • Frontline Continues To Benefit From Rising Rates [View article]
    Acadia,

    I disagree valuing FRO on NAV. It's just a business model to be asset light. If you or I can own 75% of profits from hard assets, is there no value in that model? Are you going to say Uber has little value because it doesn't own any of the cars being driven?

    You mentioned that FRO's fleet is old. But so what? they don't own it. They will just lease (and buy) newer ships.

    The bottom line is that FRO is now chartering out VLCCs >$80k/day 2-3 months at a time. Assume break-even is $27k/day and it only net 75% of the profit, it is still making $40k/day of PURE profit for a VLCC that it DOES NOT own.

    Let me know where I can get a gig like that!
    Jan 22, 2015. 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontline Continues To Benefit From Rising Rates [View article]
    There are 2 components to the contingency rental expense, the 100% sweep up to $6500/day per the 2011 agreement, and the 25% profit sharing on top of that. The former is capped.

    I don't think it will be as high as $45M. If that is the case, that also means FRO is printing money.
    Jan 20, 2015. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontline Continues To Benefit From Rising Rates [View article]
    sts66,

    Per FRO's Q3 filing, the accrued "contingency rental expense" aka cash sweep is $21M. VLCC rates did not jump until late Nov. I don't think it will exceed $35M.
    Jan 20, 2015. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontline Ltd: The Company Has Turned The Corner Along With The Market [View article]
    One point you missed. If there is any short fall, it can just sell a VLCC for at least $30M. Market for 2nd hand VLCCs firming up.
    Jan 9, 2015. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Proto Labs: A 3-D Horror Show Not Worth The Price Of Admission [View article]
    $PRLB up 49% since this article was published ($47-$70).
    Aug 5, 2013. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Digging Into BlackBerry's Cash: Things Are Not As Well As They Seem [View article]
    I don't buy the bad marketing story. $BBRY's success was never due to marketing. It was due to the fact that it helps business users get work done. THe fact that so many corporate users carry a BB7 and an iPhone speaks to the utility of $BBRYs.
    Jul 7, 2013. 04:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The shale oil surge isn’t just congesting inland pipelines and refineries; Eagle Ford production is clogging up the public docks of the port of Corpus Christi in Texas. A new public dock capable of handling two 30K barrel barges at one time is set to open, but it won’t solve the problem of congestion through the port’s narrow waterways, the port’s director of operations and harbor master tells Platts. [View news story]
    Buy Texas refiners
    Jun 25, 2013. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Proto Labs: A 3-D Horror Show Not Worth The Price Of Admission [View article]
    Keubiko,

    When Warren Buffet said that, he was not referring to shorts. How is PRLB short a "value" to you?
    Jun 19, 2013. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bullish On BlackRock And Lincoln National [View article]
    A way to play Blackrock is through PNC, which still owns $9B worth. I am long PNC TARP warrants
    Jun 6, 2013. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Air Worldwide: A Great Stock Trading ~20% Below Book Value [View article]
    Your article would be a lot stronger if you add in other names such as AYR, FLY, AER.

    Another point is that AAWW owns the largest fleet of new 747-800s. These are more fuel efficient than the old 747s. THey are also in high demand and command solid margins.
    Apr 30, 2013. 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Proto Labs: A 3-D Horror Show Not Worth The Price Of Admission [View article]
    The earnings at least for this past quarter does not support the author's thesis
    Apr 27, 2013. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Proto Labs: A 3-D Horror Show Not Worth The Price Of Admission [View article]
    Am I the only one who sees the irony here? A self-proclaimed value investor, with no scientific training, who invests in pre-revenue biotechs and touts their pipelines and platforms to justification their valuations?
    Apr 17, 2013. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Proto Labs: A 3-D Horror Show Not Worth The Price Of Admission [View article]
    Keubiko, how many businesses can operate consistently at 20% NET margins? Pretty much only software businesses.

    I think your short case is weak if you can not explain why PRLB has been successful in maintaining their margins.

    I can tell you that timely delivery of tooling, even if it costs 30-40% more is extremely valuable to a company's top and bottomline. When amortized over thousands of parts, it costs less than a couple penny per part. But the gain from a short lead time is more time to refine final product, and opportunity cost of lost sales from product launch delays. This is the reason why PRLB can maintain its margins. And it is why PRLB can scale.

    Still, I have to give it to you that this could be a short term trade. PRLB has been momo'd with 3D printing. And even a tiny earnings miss will generate quite a bit of down side
    Apr 17, 2013. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Proto Labs: A 3-D Horror Show Not Worth The Price Of Admission [View article]
    Just a curious question Keubiko. Have you worked at a place outside of the financial industry? The real world is way beyond just numbers and ratios.
    Apr 17, 2013. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Proto Labs: A 3-D Horror Show Not Worth The Price Of Admission [View article]
    I think you are missing the whole reason why a company like Protolab exists. The tooling business is an extremely fragmented market, and has been that way for a long time. Despite the large market size (~$80B by 2015*), most shops are very small. It is a very difficult to scale the business, with the main reason being that tooling design is always a bottleneck.

    Protolab managed to built an operation that can actually scale. Think about what CRM did to salesforce management. I think CRM is way overvalued, but you can not honestly disregard the stickiness of its customers and business model. Protolab is really about execution, scalability, and customer retention.

    Based on your thesis, you should have shorted Amazon at its inception (way too many bookstores around), and Precision Castparts (also lots of small casting shops).

    Again, I think you are missing the entire reason why PRLB is valued at $1B.

    *http://bit.ly/Zycj3W
    Apr 17, 2013. 03:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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