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markrpat

markrpat
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  • China Stock Mania Is Serious Risk For Global Stock Markets [View article]
    It's very tough to decipher what's going on when a single decisive power, more singularly decisive than US Fed, US Congress, IMF and EU forces combined...can make decisions overnight. A hell of a lot of stuff happens behind closed doors.
    Apr 25, 2015. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Stock Mania Is Serious Risk For Global Stock Markets [View article]
    as is my nature to add comments...here goes. Not sure that $ASHR (also 50%ish financials) is any better that $FXI as a hedge to any of the 3 China exchanges - it's just not representative as far as I can see. To complicate ...controls between HK and Shanghai stock exchanges seem to be under control by China powers (Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect). Further, control of HK dollar as well as Yuan under control by same - currently both tied to US dollar - subject to further notice by ...guess whom...China?
    Apr 25, 2015. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Stock Mania Is Serious Risk For Global Stock Markets [View article]
    Great article, and thanks. I'm still trying to put the puzzle together. I get why market was down Friday AH when China decided to reign in margins, but I don't get why it was saved by a 100 basis point reduction on 19.5% bank reserve requirement (seems meager to my simple mind). Also wondering if there really is a good way to short SSEC when $FXI is composed of 50 stocks, 1/2 of which are financials (I think that's the case anyway). Would like to hear more thoughts by anyone on the subject, as I'm just struggling to get a handle on it all.
    Apr 25, 2015. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators, Formaldehyde And Asbestos [View article]
    One more thing Tilsen...if anybody loses their job because of your mis-judgements...hope you cover the damages. You can work your way out of this...payoff is big on your conscience.
    Apr 9, 2015. 08:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators, Formaldehyde And Asbestos [View article]
    Yo...Tilsen..bet you wished you'd never heard of $LL. It happens to the best of us. Now is time to take a break. Let things settle...and don't do it again. Sometimes it's best to be forgiven in silence...otherwise, nightmares will continue.
    Apr 9, 2015. 08:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators: Research, Not Hyperbole [View article]
    personally...I think argument for threat to personal health is a complete and total joke. But, and there's always a but: risks are always there for companies that marginalize compliance, even if regulations are ill conceived, poorly written and poorly regulated. You can't walk your business down the sidewalk in the US without a lawyer by your side.

    Call it a "sidewalk tax". Perhaps a good catch phrase.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators: Research, Not Hyperbole [View article]
    Thanks...I also like humor. Rather gargle with HCHO than have short puts on my menu.

    But getting back to the mundane...this is a battleground that has received so much attention, it's too early to make long term commitments. It's just not worth it IMHO. Too many scientists, lawyers and journalists all chasing a minnow in the shark tank.
    Mar 19, 2015. 07:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Euro-Dollar Riot! [View article]
    D...I think he did give a hint at possibility for mispriced earnings expectations for 1H 2015. Also about J-curve recovery further out. Nobody knows for sure.
    Mar 15, 2015. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Euro-Dollar Riot! [View article]
    Thanks for helping me understand mechanism between interest rates and currency fluctuations. This has been a very large missing piece of the puzzle for me, a fundamental piece. Thanks for walking through it, very well written.
    Mar 15, 2015. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Hardwood Flooring Insider's Take On Lumber Liquidators [View article]
    Couldn't have said it better. Bravo! That about wraps it up...court adjourned for milk and cookies.
    Mar 11, 2015. 04:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Day Of Winter & Colder Temperature Forecasts, So Why Did Natural Gas Hit New Yearly Lows Friday? [View instapost]
    Note: second column are multipliers, but show how decay works. The actual % change in $UGAZ product of 1st and 2nd column.
    Dec 22, 2014. 07:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Day Of Winter & Colder Temperature Forecasts, So Why Did Natural Gas Hit New Yearly Lows Friday? [View instapost]
    Correction....0% daily change in benchmark = 0% change in $UGAZ. That's math for you.
    Dec 21, 2014. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Day Of Winter & Colder Temperature Forecasts, So Why Did Natural Gas Hit New Yearly Lows Friday? [View instapost]
    Always have to remind myself that a 25% loss requires a 33% gain to break even...and that's without the required headaches and calculus of derivatives.
    Dec 21, 2014. 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Day Of Winter & Colder Temperature Forecasts, So Why Did Natural Gas Hit New Yearly Lows Friday? [View instapost]
    Thanks for the article, all good, for readers that have a more elementary understanding of how $UGAZ is intended to work - and is in line with the prospectus. Here's some additional information for readers (more elementary). This is why it's toxic going down more than up.

    % single daily change of SPGSNGP (benchmark/underlying) vs. $UGAZ % single daily change:

    -5 -3.35
    -4 -3.27
    -3 -3.20
    -2 -3.13
    -1 -3.06
    0 3.00
    +1 2.94
    +2 2.89
    +3 2.83
    +4 2.79
    +5 2.74

    This does not imply a progression for more than one day. Please correct me if I'm mistaken.
    Dec 21, 2014. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 billion reasons to like retail [View news story]
    Yep. Your point of view and analyses inspire real thought and further due diligence. Very nice to have you back Paulo!
    Nov 28, 2014. 05:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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221 Comments
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