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markrpat

markrpat
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  • The Market Rises Through The Gaps [View article]
    P....this was my intepretation also. Thanks for not making me feel too green. Paulo, thanks for clarifiying and for a great article.
    Apr 2 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cyprus deal is now a template for the rest of the eurozone, Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem tells Reuters' Luke Baker. He's naturally referring to bailing-in uninsured depositors, but does he also mean capital controls and border checks for cash? Other eurozone countries need to work quickly, he says, to overhaul their own banking sectors. [View news story]
    MI - cap controls - agree with your first paragraph, ala Iceland. I need time to think harder on the rest.
    Mar 25 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cyprus deal is now a template for the rest of the eurozone, Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem tells Reuters' Luke Baker. He's naturally referring to bailing-in uninsured depositors, but does he also mean capital controls and border checks for cash? Other eurozone countries need to work quickly, he says, to overhaul their own banking sectors. [View news story]
    MI - the threat is that they won't be able to because of a pressure from the troika for the states to impose overnight laws on their own citizens. If it's big enough, the safe haven of the USD/treasuries will be off limits, due to capital controls. What happens to US treasury auctions? USD? Expatriation of foreign currency into the US stock market?

    Don't know myself. Just saying.
    Mar 25 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cyprus deal is now a template for the rest of the eurozone, Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem tells Reuters' Luke Baker. He's naturally referring to bailing-in uninsured depositors, but does he also mean capital controls and border checks for cash? Other eurozone countries need to work quickly, he says, to overhaul their own banking sectors. [View news story]
    It doesn't need to be insured if it's locked up. Redemptions can be hindered by banks and brokerage accounts by simply not answering the telephone or shutting down a website.
    Mar 25 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cyprus deal is now a template for the rest of the eurozone, Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem tells Reuters' Luke Baker. He's naturally referring to bailing-in uninsured depositors, but does he also mean capital controls and border checks for cash? Other eurozone countries need to work quickly, he says, to overhaul their own banking sectors. [View news story]
    What happens when all accounts are spread out not to exceed 100k? The banking problems are still there. The rules will change overnight, and include capital controls and a reduction or further complication of "EU Deposit Guarantee Schemes (DGS)".
    Mar 25 01:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Timing The Next Move In Coal [View article]
    It's a mixed bag with coal. Far too elusive to predict future of these companies. The current exchange rate for USD and the reliance of US coal industry to export leaves things completely in the wind.
    Seems like it's completely up to coal companies to predict the currency exchange rates for their contracts to survive. Flip side, keep it in the ground, lay off everyone and wait for a buyout.
    Mar 21 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's True Opportunities In 2013 [View article]
    Thanks for the article. If Apple wants to do something truly innovative, in the same vein as S Jobs they might consider rennovating the indoor and outdoor recreation business.
    Examples might include:
    batt powered rec vehicles
    solar powered recreational micro devices (an insect with camera)
    entry into a smaller one man aircraft, and take on regulation
    underwater exploration via remote controlled subs
    gutter cleaning devices that operate by remote control
    modern home cleaning devices or safety devices
    around the world balloons with cam and nav devices (airline tickets attached for free vacations)
    lo-cost software to make your own animations via smart phone
    Education tools (smart toys) for tots, relieving children the imagination blight
    Senior citizen tools for maintaining mental health

    The list goes on.....they need to just be bold! Of course this means they will have to take on the mother of all....government regulation.

    They should go out on a limb, not just use cash on hand, but borrow against it. Think BIG! And if it doesn't work in America, then do it somewhere else, it'll catch on.
    Mar 20 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyprus Will Bring The Red With It [View article]
    wow.....good roll, but you lost your readers. Use paragraphs. Boil it down dude.
    Mar 17 09:58 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyprus Will Bring The Red With It [View article]
    Remember, the Cypriot Parliment still has to vote to approve this entire measure. The timing of this is interesting - long weekend in Europe.
    This is nothing more than a grand exersize, likened to a "ping" sent by the EU, IMF, UST and US FED to test the reaction in world markets. There are darker interpretations, but let's not get paranoid.

    A more tangible interpretation is that public deficits are being forced into the private sector when other measures fail.

    Instead of forcing stock shareholders into bonds (ala GM in the USA via an executive ordered bailout), new measures are being used as an experiment. Coercing bank ownership and future natural gas derivatives onto savings account owners, as a proposed compensation for theft.

    The experiment is :
    What happens when savings accounts are stolen overnight?......well, since it's a small experiment on a small island in the Mediteranean, shouldn't be a big deal. Let's just see.

    The following weeks will tell. Very interesting to see what global media says as well as the markets.
    Mar 17 08:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Fed Data: Economy Drowning In Federal Debt [View article]
    jimmy46 - the way balance sheets and cash flows are parsed between Fed R. and US treasury, it's hard to even have a cogent discussion without hiring a lawyer. The pie chart I saw yesterday on S.A. illustrated that the largest asset held by treasury was student debt (37%, over one trillion USD) of total assets (an amount greater than all credit card debt in the US). What eludes me, is how far can this whole farce go? The music will slow down (it won't stop, can't), and there won't be enough chairs (just crutches and stools).
    Mar 12 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Soaring margin debt (and plunging cash balances) trigger a sell signal at BAML, which says the last time this big a move happend was April 2010 - just ahead of a 2-month, 16% decline in SPY. Alongside this is short-term sentiment which has risen to levels consistent with selloffs in the past. [View news story]
    Amc - just a verification, are you using one sigma on BB or two?
    Mar 12 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Fed Data: Economy Drowning In Federal Debt [View article]
    dnorm - agreed. I scrolled down all 91 comments and saw no author reply. One of the problems I have with the article is clarification between gross debt and liabilities. I don't disagree that there is a huge burden of both, but it invites lots of misdirection.

    If I'm saving money in my household, could it not be considered a backlog of debt in terms future health insurance premiums? While it hasn't yet blossomed into debt (another way to look at it as blossoming into money velocity in the health/insurance/service sector), it could certainly be considered a funded liability.
    Mar 11 07:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Line Sales And Profit Growth Falter As The Dow Approaches All Time Highs [View article]
    - to break it down, the current rising tide in the stock market prices don't necessarily reflect a bullish sentiment based on sales/earnings or future value, but possibly a) herd mentality; b) hedging by parties with a lot of cash, providing an illusion of growth sentiment.

    either way, in agreement the author......rising prices in US equities will be met with multiple soft or hard stops with respect to earnings.

    Thanks for doing all the hard lifting Joseph, your articles are great.
    Mar 2 10:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Line Sales And Profit Growth Falter As The Dow Approaches All Time Highs [View article]
    Great article. I think the reason for buying the market on dips might be as simple as herd mentality. The opportunity for managers of retirement funds, 401k individuals, etc. to get in on the action. That is the most rational and simple explanation (irrational human behavior). As crazy as it sounds, it's the most reasonable explanation....ignorance of near/intermediate term consequences. It did occur on a grand scale less than 5 years ago.

    The other reasons might be a little less transparent, but also completely believable and rational.

    "I do have an explanation though for why stocks - in particular the Dow stocks - put in new post recession highs. My explanation - any and all sell offs are being back stopped by someone who is willing to spend a lot of money to prevent even a modest sell off in stocks."

    The use of "someone" could be replaced with "party" - and when you have two parties going on, brother, there's fuel for a conspiracy (even though the word carries negative connotations, it's not necessarily negative).

    There might be a for-profit-conspiracy ....and with so much currency floating around, it's not hard for me to imagine that such an agreement between "parties" might also include hedging against a boatload of illiquid-levered-security (bond) positions by going long equities. If that's the case, it's also quite believable that the securities (or even less transparent, darker derivatives) being hedged, are much larger in currency equivalant compared to the SPX/DIA.

    I offer that the US stock market is a tick on the tail of (the dog) credit market.
    Mar 2 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Line Sales And Profit Growth Falter As The Dow Approaches All Time Highs [View article]
    Wamid - Please, provide more detail. Would at least like to know why you picked April 1?
    Mar 2 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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