Formerly Chief Market Strategist at Capital Ladders Advisory Group LLC. After the sale of certain of CLAG's retail and institutional assets in October 2015, I have commenced my latest venture in the CPG industry which is centered on the development and licensing of consumer and commercial technology. https://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=AAIAAA3lJ9IBNi1rhhFzRWElkJl4MpyNuIiHglQ&trk=nav_responsive_tab_profile
CooLinX Integrated Technologies develops technologies for the beverage and CPG industry. We are presently effecting licensing agreements with multi-national brands and co-developing products aimed for mass market consumption.
Janus Capital Group Inc. (JCG) is a global investment firm dedicated to delivering better outcomes for clients through a broad range of actively managed investment solutions, including fixed income, equity, alternative and multi-asset class strategies. It does so through a number of distinct investment platforms, including investment teams within Janus Capital Management LLC (Janus), as well as INTECH Investment Management LLC (INTECH) and Perkins Investment Management LLC (Perkins), in addition to a suite of exchange-traded products under the VelocityShares brand as well as global macro fixed income products under the Kapstream brand. Each team brings distinct asset class expertise, perspective, style-specific experience and a disciplined approach to risk. Investment strategies are offered through open-end funds domiciled in both the U.S. and offshore, as well as through separately managed accounts, collective investment trusts and exchange-traded products.
I am a former private equity and venture capital attorney with many years of investment management experience as a sideline. I've recently retired from legal practice to concentrate on fund management on a full-time basis. I now manage separate accounts for a small group of high net-worth clients.
I run a model fund at Ken Kam's Marketocracy, where they do capital management using the best member mutual fund track records with extensive tabulations of alpha, beta, R-squared, and many other fund management evaluations.
Marketocracy Capital Management offers SMA (Separately Managed Accounts) through FOLIOfn Institutional ($100,000 minimum accounts) set up to track the top 15 or so long-term track records (many 12 years plus) of the 30000 or so active members that run models at their site. My fund is one of those top models available for SMAs.
My fund methodology is high diversification, usually running around 40-60 stocks from many different sectors. I rarely weight any position much over 5%. I began at Marketocracy developing an analysis method I've labeled The Fractal Base Flow Model. I've been experimenting with variations of my basic methodology with 4 other funds and a 5th where I try new things. With my first and main model fund BPMF (Bruce Pile's Mutual Fund) I did my basic method for the first 7 years or so with an alpha over 30, then strayed a little into other analysis methods that did not work as well. The last couple years I have been making my model strictly a one method fund again as I am convinced I'm not going to find a better analysis method.
Marketocracy is a new way of investing that solves a lot of the problems in the industry today. When investors nowadays survey their options, they are perplexed by the mish mash of risk and fees.
In mutual funds, you have regulated safety where managers must diversify with less than 10% of your money in any one name in the top of your weightings scheme, making for at least around 20 stocks at any one time. The SEC also prohibits the risk of leverage and investing in dangerous derivatives, etc. But this safety is typically viewed as a tradeoff with performance vs hedge funds, where all the dangerous stuff is allowed. But the sad result of all this danger is that most hedge funds fail.
The average life of a hedge fund that makes it past the first year is just 5 years. More than two thirds of all hedge funds that ever existed are now dead. There is the fund of funds option, but the high turnover means that even they must select an all new portfolio of funds about every 5 years. This makes selecting proven long-term performers virtually impossible.
A fund of hedge funds will typically not only charge the high hedge fund fees of 1%-4% management fee plus 15%-25% of your returns, but will also charge fees for running the fund of funds. They pile complication upon complication and charge you for it. "Oh, and the hedge fund industry as a whole hasn’t produced alpha/added value to simple portfolios for years, since its assets under management ballooned." [FTalphaville]
With typical leverage, that has grown over 15 years from around 20% to over 40% now, you get 40%more risk than mutual fund rules with no significant added performance, just more costs. And because that added leverage risk is so often concentrated in the same areas by all the large funds, inducing systemic risk, when those bets go wrong they can go very wrong. With all the above, an investor must live with the risk of having just one fund manager, or picker of rotating funds in a fund of funds.
Imagine a place where you could go to sign up for an account where you could review track records and styles and risk levels of not just one guy, but up to 15 or so, and check on your account signup form how you want to spread your money among these guys. And imagine that all these managers have had to compile top ranked hedge fund performance levels for up to 15 years under the safety level of SEC rules for mutual funds. And imagine you could get all this at roughly cost of a mutual fund. It would be like opening an account and checking the names of Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and all your favorite hedge fund managers to gang tackle your investment objectives. And as in any team sport, if one guy hits a cold streak, the others will carry him. No dependence on one manager.
Well there is such a place - Marketocracy Capital Management. Here, thousands of people from all walks of life, from retired and active fund managers to ordinary individual investors, compete online with virtual funds. If your track record qualifies, you can open a GIPS account for real money tracking of your model fund and have client accounts track your model. My fund is one of those, ticker BPMF. FOLIOfn Institutional can open a client SMA where you can pick and choose from the best of the best long-term performers. To look into this:
M. Kevin Flynn has held the Chartered Financial Analyst designation since 1992. He is the President of Avalon Asset Management Company, a Registered Investment Adviser, and has worked in the investment industry since 1983.
Avalon's MarketWeek, a weekly newsletter written by Mr. Flynn and covering the stock market, economy and individual stocks has been published continuously since April 2007. For subscription information please send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org
I was born in India in October 1957 during the waning years of British colonialism. I returned home to native Scotland as a infant and grew up in the small country town of Kirriemuir, famous as the birth place of J. M. Barrie, the creator of Peter Pan, and of Bon Scott, lead singer with rock band AC DC.
In 1979 I graduated from The University of Aberdeen with a BSc degree in geology and went on to defend a PhD in 1984 that examined Crustal Evolution in Western Norway based on radiogenic isotope data. In 1983, my wife and I moved to Norway where we both worked at The University of Oslo. In this period I worked on developing methods that employed natural radiogenic isotope ratio variations in rocks and fluids to help characterise the layering and connectivity of oil and gas reservoirs and have since published a number of papers on this topic.
In 1993 we returned home to Aberdeen with a one year old infant and I would establish an isotope geochemistry analysis and consulting business that would eventually employ 12 people and operate 3 mass spectrometers. Business boomed during the early years with a spate of large new field developments that would fuel the second peak in UK oil production in 1999. But a glut of oil on the market would see the oil price fall below $10 / barrel in 1998 that would lead to one of the periodic busts in the industry which my company survived but would never fully recover from.
On September 11th 2001 I decided to throw in the towel and sold the analytical part of the business but continued doing consultancy work for the oil industry until 2005. In 2003 I fortuitously invested some money in a range of small oil stocks and had become intrigued to understand why their value and the price of oil seemed to be set on an ever upwards trajectory. I had for a long while been fascinated by the concept of peak oil and read a few books including Richard Heinberg’s The Party’s Over, Matt Simmons’ Twilight in The Dessert and Daniel Yergin’s The Prize. And then one day in 2006 I stumbled upon The Oil Drum blog without realising at the time that this enterprise would consume the greater part of my time for the following 7 years.
At that time The Oil Drum provided unique insight to the pandoras box of the energy world that society was struggling to understand. Escalating oil and energy prices meant spreading energy poverty through the poorer parts of OECD society and throughout the developing world. Politicians and policy makers were caught off balance and did not know how to respond. Not much has changed.
I have two sons, both recently graduated from university, a wife who works for the oil industry and two dogs who take me for a long walk every afternoon. I am under a certain amount of pressure to contribute to family income and so undertake occasional consulting jobs for the energy industries. But my real passion is to try and understand the various components of how The Earth energy system works and to educate politicians, policy makers and the public on Energy Matters so that better choices can be made. I hope the articles I write for Energy Matters may one day build into a book and that I may somehow make a living from data analysis, writing and public speaking.
In 2009 I was appointed as Honorary Research Fellow at The University of Aberdeen where I teach occasional courses.
Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. A prolific writer and speaker he appears regularly on CNBC and has spoken for the Foreign Policy Association. In addition to being quoted in the financial press daily, Chandler has been published in the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, and the Washington Post. In 2009 Chandler was named a Business Visionary by Forbes.
Marc's commentary can be found at his blog (www.marctomarket.com) and twitter www.twitter.com/marcmakingsense
Michael T. Snyder is a graduate of the McIntire School of Commerce at the University of Virginia and has two law degrees from the University of Florida. He is an attorney that has worked for some of the largest and most prominent law firms in Washington D.C. and who now resides outside of Seattle, Washington. He is a very active blogger and is also a respected researcher, writer, speaker and activist. You can follow him on The Economic Collapse blog: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/
Individual long term investor both long and short including options.
The intelligent Investor by Graham
Security Analysis (1940) by Dodd Graham
General interest in macroeconomics.
Keen reader of "the Austrians"
Ludwig von Mises, Eugen Boehm von Bawerk, Carl Menger
John M. Mason writes on current monetary and financial events. He is an entrepreneur and a writer. Current projects include a new banking institution, an Internet company, a private equity fund, two depository institutions and a community redevelopment fund. He formerly was on the faculty of the Finance Department, Wharton School, the University of Pennsylvania. Dr. Mason has been President and CEO of two publicly traded financial institutions and the executive vice president and CFO of a third. He has also served as a special assistant to the secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development in Washington, D. C. and as a senior economist within the Federal Reserve System. Dr. Mason has served on the boards of venture capital funds and other private equity funds. He has worked with young entrepreneurs, especially within the urban environment, starting or running companies primarily connected with Information Technology. Some of his new ventures are in the sustainable business and impact business space. .
Commodity broker 79-81
I discovered the Gospel In July 1979 (and re-discovered it again in April 2004 -after the G.6 release was dis-continued). Dr. Leland Pritchard "You have a predictive device nobody has hit on yet" - 9/8/81
My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%. AAA Corporate yields rose to 15.49%. I should receive the Nobel Prize. The data should be classified as "top secret" by the U.S. Gov't. I.e., I let Aladdin out of the Lamp.
See: 1938 Member Bank Reserve Requirements - Analysis of Committee Proposal (transactions velocity)
The outstanding volume of the FRB_NY "trading desk's" 'eligible collateral' fell during the Great Depression. Whereas 'eligible collateral' was multiplied thru colossal Federal deficit financing (where the Gov’t spends much more than it expects to receive), during the Great Recession (but Bernanke still chose to "push on a string").
As Greenspan pontificated in “The Map & the Territory”: “The laws of physics…once identified, rarely have to be revised”:
Rates-of-change (roc’s) in monetary flows (our means-of-payment money times its transactions rate-of-turnover), equal roc’s in all transactions in Irving Fisher’s “equation of exchange”: (MVt = PT). Roc’s in nominal-gDp are a proxy for all economic transactions.
The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e. the proxies for (1) real-growth, & for (2) inflation indices have been mathematical constants for the last 100 years. However, the FED's target (interest rates), is indirect, varies widely over time, & in magnitude.
President Wilson signed “The Federal Reserve Act” into law on December 23, 1913. The Act, "Provided for the establishment of Federal Reserve Banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes".
"It was anticipated that credit extended by the Federal Reserve Banks to commercial banks would rise and fall with seasonal and longer term variations in business activity"
"Seasonality" (principally the holidays), is the result of the FOMC’s seasonal mal-adjustments (& has its roots in the fallacious "Real Bills Doctrine”). The FOMC, through its "open market power", has the capability of either adding or subtracting to the volume of money in circulation. But the non-bank public determines its mix (the volume of currency vs. bank deposits).
This policy is reflected by changes in the Depository Financial Institution’s (DFI), required reserve balances. RRs are based on transaction type accounts 30 days prior. Reserve balances are driven by consumer's & business' payment & settlements. Thus RRs provide the seasonal factor map (economic time series’ cyclical trend). This is inviolate & sacrosanct.
flow5 (2/26/07; 14:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 152672)
If gold doesn't fall, then there's a new paradigm
Reply #187 on Jul 21, 2011, 8:31pm »
the stock market should be topping & in the process of a downtrend
flow5 Comments (3049) As it now stands, the market falls until Oct. Then expect a very strong rally. Everybody should double up in Nov. & Dec. (i.e., futures, options, margin, etc.) 5 Aug 2011, 09:04
Written on Mar 30 11:31 am prior to the MAY 6th FLASH CRASH:
"Contrary to economic theory, & Nobel laureate Dr. Milton Friedman, monetary lags are not "long & variable". The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e., the proxies for (1) real-growth, and for (2) inflation indices, are historically, always, fixed in length (mathematical constants). However the lag for nominal gdp (the FED's target??), varies widely."
Assuming no quick countervailing stimulus:
jan..... 0.54.... 0.25 top
feb..... 0.50.... 0.10
mar.... 0.54.... 0.08
apr..... 0.46.... 0.09 top
may.... 0.41.... 0.01 stocks fall
Been saying this for the last 6 months. Should see shortly. Stock market makes a double top in Jan & Apr. Then the real-output of final goods & services falls/inverts from (9) to (1) from Apr to May.
Recent history indicates that this will be a marked, short, one month drop, in rate-of-change for real-output (-8). So stocks follow the economy down (with yields moving sympathetically?)"
flow5 Message #10 - 05/03/10 07:30 PM
The markets usually turn (pivot) on May 5th (+ or - 1 day).
POSTED: Dec 13 2007 06:55 PM |
The Commerce Department said retail sales in Oct 2007 increased by 1.2% over Oct 2006, & up a huge 6.3% from Nov 2006.
10/1/2007,,,,,,,-0.47,,,,,,, -0.22 * temporary bottom
11/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.14,,,,,,, -0.18
1/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.59,,,,,,, 0.06
2/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.45,,,,,,, 0.10
3/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.06,,,,,,, 0.04
4/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.04,,,,,,, 0.02
5/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.09,,,,,,, 0.04
6/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.20,,,,,,, 0.05
7/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.32,,,,,,, 0.10
8/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.15,,,,,,, 0.05
9/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.00,,,,,,, 0.13
10/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.20,,,,,,, 0.10 * possible recession
11/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.10,,,,,,, 0.00 * possible recession
12/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.10,,,,,,, -0.06 * possible recession
Trajectory as predicted:
12-16-12, 01:50 PM #1 flow5
"We’re close to seeing the real power of OMOs. R-gDp is likely to accelerate earlier & faster than anyone now expects. The roc in M*Vt before any new stimulus is already above average. With low inflation (given some deficit resolution), Jan-Apr could be a zinger"
June's reversal will end the bull market that began in the early 80's. And it will not be because Operation Twist ends (although its end will force yields higher).
20 May 2012, 03:04 PMReply
This propelled nominal gNp to 19.2% in the 1st qtr 1981, the FFR to 22%, & AAA Corporates to 15.49%. My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%.
David R. Kotok cofounded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, and a masters in philosophy from the University of Pennsylvania.
Mr. Kotok’s articles and financial market commentary have appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, and other publications. He is a frequent contributor to Bloomberg TV and radio, Fox Business, and other media.
Mr. Kotok has served as Program Chairman of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC) (www.interdependence.org), whose mission is to encourage the expansion of global dialogue and free trade in order to improve cooperation and understanding among nation states, with the goal of reducing international conflicts and improving worldwide living standards. Mr. Kotok chaired its Central Banking Series and organized a five-continent dialogue held in Philadelphia, Paris, Zambia (Livingstone), Hanoi, Singapore, Prague, Cape Town, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Rome, Milan, Tallinn, and Santiago, Chile. He has received the Global Citizen Award from GIC for his efforts.
Mr. Kotok is a member of the National Business Economics Issues Council (NBEIC), the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) and served on the Research Advisory Board of BCA Research. Mr. Kotok has served as a Commissioner of the Delaware River Port Authority (DRPA) and on the Treasury Transition Teams for New Jersey Governors Kean and Whitman. He has also served as a board member of the New Jersey Economic Development Authority and as Chairman of the New Jersey Casino Reinvestment Development Authority. He has authored or co-authored four books, including the best selling Second edition of “From Bear to Bull with ETFs,” now available at Amazon and “Adventures in Muniland."
Dallas currently owns and operates as CEO an Austin-based enterprise consulting firm that specializes in private company lifecycle management, up to and including taking companies public, and in helping consult publicly traded companies ranging in market cap from $100 million to $500 million. He has a specialization in deal flow management and is often the referring and closing source of Joint Ventures and broader M&A. Dallas often works directly with management teams and Boards of microcap and stressed equity companies in which he or members of his professional network are heavily invested. This includes helping with overall strategy, helping with capital structure management, helping facilitate liquidity, helping facilitate Joint Ventures and broader M&A, and helping restructure the business segments if necessary. Recently Dallas has been interviewed by The Pittsburgh Business Times, The Banker, Columbus Business First, Houston Business Journal, The Deal, Energy Intelligence, and his tweets have been used by CNBC to highlight hot button issues regarding Carl Icahn, Bill Ackman, Nelson Peltz’s takeover attempts at DuPont, etc. Dallas has also been quoted and sourced to by StreetSweeper.org, Marcellus.com, MarcellusDrilling.com, Bakken.com, OilOnline.com, and other physical and online publications. "One place of great inefficiency is in the stressed equity markets – or the markets in which a company appears as bankruptcy or a breakup is inevitable. As equities become stressed they often sell down to absurd levels of value that present, should there be value to be unlocked, opportunities for “venture level” returns. These often range in the 3X-10X range. With my unique ability to actually improve business outcomes by working directly with a company and management/Board I’m in a position, should I view the underlying business as salvageable, to directly improve the long-term viability of the company. I am NOT simply an investor in these names but an acting consultant. This allows me to “overlay my network” and to move the company away from a stressed or defaulting outcome and into an outcome probability that allows the equity price to move substantially higher. Identifying these opportunities has generated shareholders and investors thousands of percentage points in aggregate and is something I’m often recognized by paying subscribers for."
I try to determine without emotions major turning points and strong trends of major assets that include global indices, equity sector classes, high liquidity stocks, debts & fixed income, commodities and currencies. I apply quantitative & qualitative models exploiting relationships among Debts, FX and Equity combining solid academic education, deep macro knowledge & business experience. The end result to positive total return irrespective of market conditions in the short to medium term.
Here please see what I do http://leopardtrader.com/what-we-do/
Full time Investor / Trader, 17 years.
Specialist in risk management, with intermediate trade focus, US stocks, international ETFs and commodities.
Believe in correlation of markets, must understand all markets to trade one well.
Self taught through continuous study of myself and other investors.
Extensive experience with short selling, futures and options.
Developing interest in international markets based on poltical change and policies.
Follow and read fundamentals but invest by listening to technical's.
Follow me on Twitter @Cessnadriver50
Richard Zeits is an Oil & Gas industry analyst and consultant. His background includes fourteen years as Energy industry-focused investment banker, portfolio manager and senior investment analyst with bulge bracket firms in New York. Zeits Energy Analytics use elaborate proprietary analytics and data bases to provide in-depth industry research, market intelligence, and forecasting.
Formerly in Aerospace/Defence propulsion area, I made a transition to energy/environment in 1995 to work on renewable energy. Specifically, biomass thermochemical processing into standard drop-in transportation fuels, like high-octane gasoline. I have founded Transmediair, Inc (later renamed Primus Green Energy, Inc) in New Jersey. I am the architect of Primus' proprietary technology, specifically, catalytic biomass gasification and other patents, including a modified version of the Mobil (1972) methanol to gasoline or MTG process. I am currently the President of Verdant Aerospace, LLC, developing technologies for renewable fuels, advanced micro turbines, and non-fracking shale-gas extraction. I have a BSc from the Technion, Haifa, and a PhD from Princeton University, both in aerospace and mechanical engineering.
I hold MSc. in Electrical Engineering, speak four languages (English, French, Greek, German) and have lived in the U.S. for many years. I am also a freelance writer with one of the highest Followers per Article (F/A) rates in Seeking Alpha. My F/A rate in Seeking Alpha is above 30.
After creating "Nathan's Bulletin" (a subscription-based investment guide for investors who can't afford a financial advisor), I launched a subscription-based Premium Service in Seeking Alpha entitled "A Fundamental Investor's Stock Club" which includes an unparalleled, actively-managed and high-return Portfolio of unknown and/or underfollowed stocks. Regularly updated and detailed lists in my Premium Posts PROVE these high returns. For reference, when I was managing money in the early 2000s, the annual ROI of my Portfolio consistently exceeded 50%. My Premium Research is based on a comprehensive review of company-specific factors, macro conditions, competitors and the industry trends.
When it comes now to my publicly-available picks and my free Seeking Alpha articles, I have a success rate of over 80%, an average return per recommendation of over 30% and a 5-star rating according to TipRanks.com, which is the highest category quality ranking used to evaluate financial experts. TipRanks.com is a comprehensive investing tool that allows private investors and day traders to see the measured performance of anyone who publicly provides financial advice. TipRanks.com collects data, evaluates and ranks 5,000 financial bloggers and 9,000 financial experts.
After almost 30 years of investing experience in the international markets (U.S., Canada, Australia, Europe), I have formulated a deep understanding of valuation analysis and my investment philosophy is firmly grounded in Ben Graham-style value-oriented opportunities that often have an assymetric risk/reward profile. On that front, I have created a unique proprietary database with thousands of publicly-traded companies per sector, which helps me spot the bargains and the bubbles before many investors find them.
Physical Chemistry Professor (retiring June 2016) deluded into thinking that a spreadsheet and 24 years worth of historical data are sufficient to devise a winning trading strategy that focuses on volatility ETFs.
My first experience with investing was just prior to the dot com crash. I read up on momentum investing (how do buy) but not when to sell. You can guess how that turned out.
I began developing my current strategies three years ago, based primarily on my own ideas, available data, and self-taught expertise in programming Excel spreadsheets.
Bill Gross is a Portfolio Manager responsible for managing the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, and all related portfolios, and leading efforts to build out Janus' global macro fixed income capabilities. He also serves as an integral member of the Janus Capital Group Global Allocation Committee focused on the expansion of Janus' global asset allocation business. He is based in Newport Beach, California. Mr. Gross co-founded PIMCO in 1971 and served as managing director and Chief Investment Officer until joining Janus in 2014. Throughout his career, Mr. Gross has received numerous awards including Morningstar Fixed Income Manager of the Decade for 2000-2009 and Fixed Income Manager of the Year for 1998, 2000 and 2007. He became the first portfolio manager inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society’s Hall of Fame in 1996 and received the Bond Market Association’s Distinguished Service Award in 2000. In 2011, Institutional Investor magazine awarded him the Money Management Lifetime Achievement Award. He is a renowned expert within the bond market and is at the forefront of thought leadership on the subject of fixed income investing. He is also author of the books, Everything You’ve Heard About Investing is Wrong and Bill Gross on Investing.
Mr. Gross holds an undergraduate degree from Duke University and an MBA from the Anderson School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles. He has 44 years of financial industry experience.