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bjk413

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  • Express Scripts looks to force Gilead to cut price of Sovaldi [View news story]
    Awesome, maybe ESRX should decide what medication you should take. Why do you even need a Dr.? what do they know? Let ESRX devise the most cost effective drug regimen for you. Because that's good medicine!

    Also ESRX doesn't pay for liver transplants, or your long hospital/hospice stay while your liver degrades into a useless scarred hunk. Gee, I wonder why they don't see the cost benefit of this treatment.
    Apr 8, 2014. 10:58 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Democrats query Gilead over Sovaldi pricing [View news story]
    Maybe because Incivek was already priced at $100k going into this. And it doesn't matter where they priced it, everyone would be crying cause they gov't made everyone get insurance, remove caps, and now that they might have to pay everyone is upset at the Dems.

    Check on the cost of a Liver transplant, dying in the hospital due to liver failure, and treating the ancillary damage that Hep C can cost. The price is fine and is justified.

    Even at $65k, think about what it would cost to pay for 200k treatments, even 100k treatments. $6.5B to $13B a year. Sure that's scary. Awesome, let's try to punish GILD for bring a treatment to market that is truly better than the current gold standard, priced almost 20% cheaper than it, and will help avoid incidents that will cost more than the treating it's end stages than it would to pay for the treatment.
    Mar 21, 2014. 12:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payers rebel against Gilead over cost of hepatitis C pill [View news story]
    PBMs have been doing this for a long time with the different tiers in formularies. This is recycling ESRX's comments from awhile back, even though the company later came out and said it was not specifically about HCV.

    Nothing new here expect the protesters don't know who to protest. Sad they are arguing for the side of the PBMs that don't seem to have their best interest in mind....
    Jan 27, 2014. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora Is Falling Behind The Competition: An Indirect Survey Using Twitter [View article]
    Hi, I don't understand you comment "I shorted last week and am fully hedged". So are you saying you just created synthetic puts?

    I don't agree on your analysis of Pandora, but what I find interesting in that everyone is set on believing that there is only room for 1 streaming music provider in this world. Really?

    Terrestrial Radio advertising spend is in the order of $15B a year and the "Internet radio guys" are battling over $1B in ad revenue... hmmm... maybe there is just a small possibility that there could be more than one successful player in digital audio. Don't you think?

    I use Pandora and Spotify. I pay for both. In my opinion Pandora's radio selection for a station I pick is vastly superior to any other. But yes they have a limited library, but they do a great job of making sure the music you want to hear for you station is just that. Spotify is great for having all the music you could possible want at your finger tips. But it's more work to keep up with playlists ect.

    I believe looking at all the "internet radio" guys and trying to figure out who will displace who and take over is missing the big picture. If the overall radio ad spend was only $1B, not many people would even bother trying to compete in this space. They aren't looking to steal pandora's revenues. They all want a piece of the bigger pie.
    Nov 19, 2013. 07:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chasing Bubbles In The NASDAQ 100 (Part II) [View article]
    This is a classic conundrum when fundamental analysts meet technical analysts or growth meets value. I completely disagree with your analysis of VRTX, but I don't really think the analysis is off the wall. I've always struggled to understand how much of investor behavior both rational and irrational is captured in technical analysis.

    When I look at your analyses with respect to fundamentals, I see an analyses that completely ignores the transitional element of the VRTX investment thesis. If you did not follow and understand that Cystic Fibrosis portion of their story (a small part of their revs relative to HCV currently) i can understand how you can't be bullish on the stock. But if you understand it's potential and believe it will come to fruition the stock looks ridiculously cheap.

    I attribute much of the pullback in that people view it as a largely binary stock as the results of their potentiator/corrector combo trials read out. And most have seen or been a victim of the recent carnage in the biotech space. However, must people that follow the story also feel that the outcomes have been significantly de-risked by the data that has come out along the way.

    Okay,l i'm just babbling now, but just my 2 cents.
    Nov 8, 2013. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Bad Will The Partial Hold On Sovaprevir Be For Achillion? [View article]
    Keep in mind that unlike GILD didn't pay $8B for the compound so minority market share is fine for ACHN.
    Jul 12, 2013. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Bad Will The Partial Hold On Sovaprevir Be For Achillion? [View article]
    I agree with Pehrilich in the thought that Reyataz itself has quite a few drug drug interactions to be concerned with. However, then you take into account that Reyataz is the most commonly used PI in HIV despite this concern. It gives me some comfort that sovaprivir would be okay if it's only contradicted with Reyataz.

    The other point I'd like to make is: Yes, there was elevated ALT, however one also needs to keep in perspective that this was after the plasma atazanvir exposure was 50% higher than normal and the sovaprivir was 50x (yes 5,000%) higher than the highest therapeutic dosage provides.

    Also the patients displaying this issue already started trending back to normal after stopping treatment. I'm fairly certain that this would be a significantly better outcome than if I gave the same kind of boost to your Tylenol or Advil dosage which would likely result in boxing your liver or kidneys.

    I did add to my position down here. So yes I'm long this stock as well.
    Jul 2, 2013. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency And Rising Interest Rates: Cut Your Losses Or Wait It Out? [View article]
    Yes YES! thank you for that comment. Even the author of this article doesn't seem to get that there is a layer of hedges on the portfolio as well. The reason for the book value hit in Q1 was that the hedges moved with the underlying book rather than against.

    The question you have to ask yourself is that a divergence or a new normal.

    Also, people argue both sides when ignoring hedges, that raising rates kills their book value. The div buyers all rant that falling rates will kill the income stream. I know it's not that simple, but at the end of the day you have to either believe management saw things coming and hedged properly or they didn't. AGNC and NLY have both pretty solid management teams so far. Both approaching the issues a little differently.
    Jun 5, 2013. 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook's Improbable Victory In Washington [View article]
    This article completely misses the point. You are agreeing with Levin's assertion that apple would never give 60% of it's profits for 60% of the R&D costs. Let me ask you this:

    If i started a company today that was researching a cure for Alzheimer's and you paid 60% of the cost of research, what would you expect for you investment? How about a 90% me, 10% you profit split, is that fair?

    Levin and yourself have the benefit of hindsight. When the agreement was created, AAPL was not the profit machine it is now. And the agreement was considered Arm's length with the information available at the time.

    Tax planning is an investment and just because their tax planning worked out doesn't mean they did something illegal. If apple never made profits they would have flushed a lot of money down the drain setting up the structure. Just like if you bought a stock and it appreciated 100x and the seller of the stock came back years later and claimed you swindled him for buying his stock for below market price, based on the fact that he knows it is now up 100 fold.


    The key here is that everything was done properly and BEFORE the company exploded with profits. For Levin and yourself to go on a witch hunt attacking them for following the rules laid out by the IRS themselves is completely ridiculous.
    May 22, 2013. 12:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Don't Be Fooled By The Super High Yield [View article]
    @itscalledcommonsense

    Can't admit I really understand these animals, but I've been told AGNC's hedging has been superior to NLY's. Also been told NLY's management is much more conservative.

    Do you have a thought on which company is better positioned for a potential rate rise? (or if you could point me in the direction to better understand the swaps they have on for hedges)

    And isn't the end or reduction of QE a short term hit for a much more attractive environment for them going forward?
    May 13, 2013. 02:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Achillion Pharmaceuticals (ACHN) falls after announcing results from a Phase 2 trial for ACH-3102, a NS5A protein inhibitor. Shares off 3% premarket. [View news story]
    there is a general fear of owning ACHN into a Liver conference. Fear that the "big boys" will unveil something earth shattering i guess. Also there was one relapse patient that may have concerned people. But with such small numbers tougth to read into that much.
    Apr 23, 2013. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merck & Co: Growth Will Become Stagnant [View article]
    Two more things to consider:

    1. MRK has an extremely bloated cost structure that is begging to be cleaned up. If management find religion on this side you have a trot of eps leverage potential.

    2. MRK has a sizeable animal health business that could be a very attractive way to unlock share holder value (ala PFE)

    Neither assured, but both have potential to bring MRK some upside.
    Apr 11, 2013. 01:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The "vol tourists" are piling into the Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN (XIV), says Chris Cole, not really understanding it, but liking the price action (up) and believing the "Fed will always have their back." The "tourists" may get burned at some point, but for the moment, the XIV is providing another way for those betting on turbulence to lose money - demand to borrow the shares is soaring. [View news story]
    maybe i don't understand, but this comment confused me. If everyone is buying the XIV why is borrow demand soaring?
    Mar 28, 2013. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons To Avoid Monster Beverage Shares [View article]
    If you are a believer of the product and brand, doesn't the political headline risk afford a buying opportunity rather than a reason to avoid it?

    When thinking about MNST and cigarettes not sure it's really a good comparison. Cigs contain nicotine a regulated substance. Caffeine on the other hand is not. To regulate caffeine would also affect anyone wanting to buy a tall 12 oz(basically a small size) Starbucks coffee that has roughly 260mg. How many "tall" coffees do you see sold at a starbucks? I'm usually the only fool ordering a "tall" as grande 16oz (330mg) and venti (415mg) seem to be the norm.

    I agree caffeine does likely have the stickiness in the user that you see with cigarettes, but the risk of controlling "energy drinks" as a category seem much lower to me. Energy drink is not even a defined class (at least legally) so how you can control energy drinks and exclude coffee would be a constitutional stretch at best in my opinion. And if they try to go after caffeine across the board, coffee included, I'd say better luck in your next term councilman (if there is one).
    Mar 11, 2013. 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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