deaverb

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Eli does it again, as always. I feel like Johnny One Note, but fear someone will get Eli to do something different. A wonderful way to start the day being put in the picture, especially the short stories and EPS reports (well, that's about everything; so I guess I like everything).

What Was Left Out of the Jobs Report

The key factor in employment, I think, is the warp speed improvement in productivity and efficiency. At a recent grocery show, all grocers (e.g., Kroger profit up 15%) reported a great 2nd quarter--less trips; more purchases per trip; faster processing through register; easier replenishment. McDonald's reports same; ditto Dollar Tree, Big Lots, and other value retailers, including the elephant itself, Wal-Mart.

Then see the iPhone: 4 in 1. Was going to get a Garmin for car; iPhone had the same (whoops, there goes one purchase down the drain; actually 3 in the family). No more watch, use iPhone; no more Laptop on the road, use iPhone.

All of this is saving consumers a lot of money. Our customers and suppliers are both communicating more simply and cheaper--and therefore our transaction costs are down--which relates to less labor on all fronts.

This is the real story. Used to throw out 4 bags of paper every week; now recycle them; now only 1 bag every 2 weeks because the paperless society is upon us. Pay bills by mail; bye bye 42 cent stamps, envelopes, trip to PO, etc. and so on.

In simple terms, employers can do far more with far less people--and there is still a ton of fat out there.

Is the Great Moderation in Danger?

End of price controls. I remember when with price controls we started to get 48 ingots of aluminum for the same old price for 50. It was a simple solution for us, who needed the aluminum, and the supplier who needed the money at a fair price.

The loser? Society. This was not a "moral" issue; this was a pricing one. Turned everyone into a bazaar.

Not a zero sum game. Oil goes up; good things start to happen too: smaller cars on the road; less driving; less wear and tear on everything from cars, to streets, to people on the road, to pollution.

And finally a domestic solar business seems to have life.

Not all bad.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Interesting about solar in particular.

Employment Numbers and New Fed Liquidity

This author seems to understand that ARMs resetting favorably matters. My wife's reset in March; she saved $650 per month. That money got reinvested in her businesses. Her corporate loan keeps going down, down, down in interest rate costs and is saving her business a like amount of money per month versus a year ago, $650 or thereabouts.

How can that not matter? If subprime people can't make the payments at these rates, they have a real problem--which most of them have. But to the rest of this, all this helps each and every month. The next reset on my wife's mortgage, if current rates hold, will drop her costs another $400. This matters.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Would like Eli's input on why the Mars merger would work. A la Smucker's deal? Combining like products, but not the same ones?

It's Cool to Be Frugal

Teen awareness is interesting. Good point. See it in my family.

The Democratic Stalemate Is Bad for the Economy

What is missing from the analysis is that Obama is the focus for traditional Democrats with a positive, sometimes refreshingly hopeful, outlook as when I voted Democratic--for McCarthy, HHH, and McGovern. He may be getting dragged into promises, but his base want positive progress. What does that mean? Not the punitive Hillary approach of the 1994 health reform, when she had the muzzle off, with docs being punished if they go outside the proposed fed system; expropriating Exxon $; beating up companies in general. Obama may improve the fairness of health reform (such as in MA where everyone pays something, state supports those who can't pay; and docs don't get beaten up--and are noticeably happy), put a tax on oil/gas, and get tougher on business regs. But he won't intentionally "hurt" or "attack"--I believe as do many other Republicans I know. So, this fight is good for business. It virtually guarantees a Republican landslide in 2008; if Obama prevails in the nomination, the debates will be helpful--and I believe Obama will "push" McCain into some positive action. If Obama wins, he'll be positive, have an open mind, and not be into punishment. His contituents want positive change--nice for everyone, and at least not negative.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Again a great start to the day.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

I love Eli's work. Especially the EPS drill. Saves so much time. Go Alpha--support Eli. Reminds me of the classic statements of Warren Buffett: "What is the biggest vice of investors?" Warren, "Being overactive." "How could you have made more money?" Warren, "Sat on the porch more; done less." Eli helps me do both. My addition: Most companies need a MBA/Mgt playground so they do less and keep sustaining their brands....

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Eli does great work for all of us every morning. Well done. I am a pedant by profession (we write and edit audiobooks, books, and text for software and audiobook deliveries), but skate right by Mr. Hoffman's errors. This speaks well to the ability to scan his report--focus in on the key elements. Well done!

Economic Report Summary: Worst Labor Report In Years

Solid summary of events. Helpful.

Economic Drubbing Should Subside - Temporarily

My error about the investment in 2 audiobooks. That was just for April. She saves another $1100 in May and so on and so on. That will get reinvested too.

Economic Drubbing Should Subside - Temporarily

The headlines go to subprime but forget that Ben's moves have dropped interest rates for the rest of us. My wife's ARM just reset on 4.1.08 so she saves $650 per month--and $150 gets put into principal paydown. Her corporate loan saved her $450 per month. She "reinvested" in creating more audiobooks--2--which employ people, are at a lower cost than competitive items, will lead to more production. This is happening thoughout the economy with the solvent but not rich. If current Ben rates hold up, her ARM will reset next 4.1.09 and she'll save another $400. This money goes to people still working, not retire, and not coupon clipppers. Good policy. Subtle so the media tends to ignore. But it is solid.

When Did the Recession Begin?

"Takes time to work through the system, rate cuts." Simply's credit line had its interest rate cut dramatically a couple of times. That's money to do more titles in our audiobook line. My wife's ARM adjusted down last month and saved her $621.00. That's real dough--now.