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HalStamford

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  • MobileIron Remains A Hold With Another Quarter Of Consistency On The Books [View article]
    I am a BBRY investor and not a follower of MOBL but clearly we are witnessing a competitive environment where both facts and perceptions have enormous influence on buying decisions. I believe the disadvantage BBRY had in the market place due to the perception that they were in trouble has been almost totally reversed and given their changed emphasis from hardware to software and their recent acquisitions and multiple software product releases built around BES12 I believe we are seeing that earlier negative perception/fear turning to a belief the BBRY will be the Gold Standard in EMM and Security in multiple formats.
    I would not see MOBL announcements as a buying opportunity especially because their announcement did not indicate that some or many of these large sales that did not close had closed during April further supporting the thesis that a significant portion of them were not delayed but lost or on the way to being lost.
    I also noticed the monthly billing comment and wondered if it might be part of a hedging or even disengagement process by their clients.
    There will be several winners in the fast growing EMM space but this announcement which reflects a very steep fall in expected new sales given that 65% of billing was legacy business and continuing losses with a limited war chest is not a good place to be ever, I would not buy at this time but would watch from the sidelines.
    Apr 23, 2015. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies electric vehicle JV aims for public listing in China [View news story]
    @ Rich Dude. Your attempt at spinning great, good and even neutral news into something terrible never ceases to amaze me.
    Actually why don't you simply state that you are short KNDI or into manipulative shorting and covering and will do everything within your perceptively limited abilities to create confusion and fear and profit therein.
    It is my perception that there has been institutional buying into Kandi since last Wednesday so please increase your short position and tell us how that goes.
    Apr 13, 2015. 10:10 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aemetis Should Provide Very Large Profits To Investors With Its New Products And Undervalued Stock [View article]
    Jim, I'd like to thank you for an excellent article.
    One small correction, in table two the 24.9M Gal should be 249M Gal
    I was long AMTX before reading your article and actually added to my position earlier this week after replaying Eric's last conference call. I bought even more today upon reading this article. These purchases had the fortunate/unfortunate effect of averaging down on my cost per share basis so clearly I was not a pre-listing buyer.
    Also a big believer in Eric McAfee and impressed that even when the stock was above $10/share there were no steps taken to erase debt via a perhaps 5M share offering.
    Don't quite share Eric's appreciation for Third Eye which has not only received excessive interest over the years (especially considering the personal recourse feature) but has also extracted excessively heavy fees and equity stock from each round of extensions and term adjustments.
    I was wondering if AMTX's agreement with Third Eye somehow restricted them from reducing this debt via an alternative loan source. Given their FCF performance and the recovering economy (and financial sector) I would certainly think such alternatives existed. Certainly one would think a lender could be found to provide an advance on the EB-5 funds.
    BTW, the funding for the CO2 capability is being secured from other lenders and they seem to have multiple options in that regard further fueling my curiosity regarding the above.
    I believe the $15 million dollar expansion of the India plant will also have multiple available lenders with reasonable terms and given the one year time frame to construct the expansion I believe their reluctance to initiate that before a major commitment either reflects uncertainty that such a commitment will come or a recognition that there will be a significant time gap between the commitment and the desire for first shipment. Any insight on that?
    Finally, your perception that the Indian facility would be the prime driver of profit growth in the near and medium time was an aspect I had not previously recognized....thanks for that insight
    Feb 6, 2015. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Potemkin Parking Lot: Related Party Transactions And Questionable Revenue Recognition At Kandi Technologies [View article]
    Actually Kandi is in second place at 10,000+ with the Panda adding additional sales. Please see this clearly more accurate data at http://bit.ly/1lGl50x
    Jan 28, 2015. 07:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies 2015: Firing From All Cylinders [View article]
    I have no specific details regarding a future potential IPO and suspect none exist at this time but here are some thoughts as to how it might affect current shareholders.
    The JV is currently not a publicly held company though its two 50% owners, Kandi and Geely are. If they chose to bring the JV company public they, along with their underwriters would establish a value for the company based on several metrics which might include: P/S (price to sales), P/B (price to book value) or PE.
    Let's assume this occurs early 2016 and they determine its value (market cap) should be $6 billion and they wish to raise $1 billion.
    I did not take the $6 billion dollar valuation out of thin air but assumed they would having trailing 12 month revenue at the time of the IPO of $1.26 billion (60,000 vehicles at $21,000) and projected next year sales of $2.52 billion and great prospects beyond that.
    Assuming their earnings were running at 10-15% after taxes and rising, a not unreasonable P/S ratio of 2.4 times projected next year sales would produce the $6 Billion valuation (with a projected forward PE of 16 to 24).
    To raise the theoretical $1 Billion they would sell shares representing approximately 16% (or 1/6th) of the outstanding shares and Kandi and Geely would each have approximately 42% of the shares.
    Current shareholders in Kandi would still own Kandi except now Kandi would not only consist of all its current subsidiaries it would also own 42% of the shares of a publicly traded company worth approximately $2.5 billion (42% x $6B) to Kandi shareholders in addition to other Kandi businesses which is a lot more than its current market cap.
    It might also own 9.5% of a publicly traded ZZY (or a lot more if they are able to buy a larger position in ZZY which I strongly suspect, but do not know, they have an option to purchase though Hu alluded to this as being something they would do at the right time. In fact, they might use some of that $1B to buy a larger position in ZZY and then do an IPO of ZZY.
    Now I don't necessarily believe this is the way the future will develop but I offer this possibility to indicate that current shareholders would gain from such an IPO and not be victimized.
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:35 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi launches police car EV program [View news story]
    Actually they are quite cute, almost stylish and in their own way a strong statement regarding sustainability and coolness among the mostly younger drivers who are the core of their renters.
    Is it possible that you may have been looking at the image of an older model?
    Jan 14, 2015. 06:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Red Flags In Kandi Technologies' Financial Statements [View article]
    It is amazing that you would actually feel comfortable saying what you've just written but if you need an answer, the answer is YES, YES and YES again.
    And now if you want to know why you are wrong just read the reported and projected sales data (clue, they are renting leasing as quickly as Kandi/JV can deliver them) or better yet visit Hangzhou as I did in November and just look around. You will see the need and how perfectly Kandi is positioned to meet it.
    My suggestion is that you pause long enough with the glib response and think about the facts on the ground and buy some Calls. You will find that because of the skeptics and shorts Calls our available many months out at just pennies above your cost, i.e. they can be bought with a minimal time premium.
    Dec 30, 2014. 04:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Red Flags In Kandi Technologies' Financial Statements [View article]
    Illuminati you never cease to amaze and disappoint me.
    3,975 comments. Wow! Where do you get the time for this nonsense. Do you have a job, wife, girlfriend or hobby or is seeing your handle in print that hobby (sorry for the offensiveness of this last sentence, I couldn't help myself)?
    Have you actually processed any of the information provided above? Do you actually think when you read or do you just wait your turn to repeat, repeat and repeat again the fact that you don't know enough about Kandi so you've decided it's too dangerous an investment so you and everyone else should stay away from it.
    Have you said anything new in the last few weeks? Have you not learned anything new in the last few weeks?
    Just as the author of this article has acknowledged his laziness may I suggest that you acknowledge your laziness in answering your own questions when the answers are right here in other comments and cease your march to 10,000 comments, sit back, read and realize that you are saying nothing worth reading.
    If you truly are an investor I would suggest doing the above will make you more money and happier than writing the nonsense you write.
    BTW your last paragraph is hysterically ridiculous.
    For your own sake I ask you not to respond but to sit down close your eyes, think about what I said then read all of the above comments twice, decide you were way off target and buy some KNDI calls.
    Then you can thank me.
    Dec 29, 2014. 01:44 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies - New Car-Share Cities And New Leasing Partners [View article]
    Great article Michael and thank you.
    I believe from indirect comments made by CEO Hu that Kandi has an option via the JV to buy a controlling (70?%) interest in ZZY though that has not been confirmed so I clearly may be incorrect. If the option is in place then I would have preferred that ZZY were able to expand rapidly across the country creating an additional vehicle (no pun intended) for Kandi shareholders to benefit in the future if/when ZZY went public.
    However, there is clearly pressure on and from major regional car distributors to join the PEV revolution and if Kandi did not work with these regionally established players another PEV manufacturer would have so it is clearly a wise decision to expand as quickly as possible throughout as many of the 88? designated cities as possible via these established players. Though I have no knowledge in this regard I would suspect that the relationship with these additional Car Share players will not preclude ZZY from becoming a second participant in their market as is the case in Chengdu.
    Clearly with their limited resources but a clear head start, speed to market is a major issue for Kandi and if they are to be a major or dominant player in PEV in China they must exploit their early entry into the market with as rapid a deployment as possible. The fact that they have a present capacity to build 200,000 vehicles a year and upon the early 2015 opening of two additional factories their production capability will rise to 400,000 vehicles per year (as reported by Arthur Porcari here: http://bit.ly/1GMYgyH where he added insightful comments to an otherwise poorly researched and thought out article by a known critic) means that they will have both the capacity to produce a majority of the PEV required by China in 2015 and beyond and potentially the distribution channels to sell them to and through.
    Dec 22, 2014. 02:46 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Announces the Sale and Delivery of 1,000 Kandi Brand Electric Vehicles to Chengdu City [View article]
    I may be incorrect but I believe that in addition to the $21.5M there will be a subsequent payment of approximately $3.2M from the national government paid to the JV as a rebate/subsidy. There should also be a comparable payment (varies by city) to ZZY as the buyer. I am guessing that this latter payment has been factored into the $21.5M to be paid by ZZY to the JV with this last payment paid upon the actual receipt of the municipal subsidy by ZZY hence the history of large unpaid payments from ZZY to the JV. Please feel free to correct these assumptions.
    What is important in this press release regarding sales to Chengdu (and recently Wuhan), is simply the continuing evidence of the spread of the JV/ZZY model to major cities around China with over 80 being pressed by the central government to adopt this or a competing "Car Share" program and the JV requiring cities wanting to partner with the JV/ZZY program to adopt policies which are key to the success of the program.
    Does anyone know of the existence and status of any other competitive "Car Share" programs? Presumably there will be competitors, I am just wondering how far along they are.
    Dec 17, 2014. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: 'Boots On The Ground' At Kandi [View article]
    Mukticat
    It really would be much more interesting responding to you if you actually reflected on what people said to you instead of formulating your generally inaccurate rebuttal as you read.

    After reading dozens of your comments it is painfully clear that you are not an honest broker listening to facts or beliefs, processing them and reflecting the new information and perceptions into your understanding.
    You clearly have a committed agenda of discounting all positive developments and insights and simply looking under some rock for your most impressive and incendiary conspiracy theory and largely incorrect rebuttal. I do not know your motives but the consistency of your position irrespective of positive developments will inevitably make you irrelevant to the experienced reader though I accept that you can have an effect on the new readers. In this regard I do want to say that I am pleased that Illuminati has an open mind to insights and I appreciate that.

    I know the 70% because COB/CEO Hu said it to the Boots group in the article above. Are you now going to say he lied? In fact it is not KNDI but the JV that has that option.

    If you re-read my comment that you are responding to you will clearly see why the JV does not wish to own all of ZZY now, why they couldn't even if they wanted to because KNDI doesn't have its share of the funds required and probably because the two investment groups funding ZZY gave them better terms because of the security they have by temporarily owning 81%, but basically as I said because the present strategy is the smart strategy not for deception but for the positive reasons I stated.

    Finally, though you probably don't want to hear it, thank you for being the dark voice of gloom that caused all of those with a need and desire to know the facts to sharpen their efforts at getting and reporting the facts.

    Constructive complexity in a business structure does not constitute a dark conspiracy to defraud though it does require due diligence and I thank you again for encouraging that though of course as I have already stated that wasn't your intention.
    Dec 7, 2014. 01:49 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: 'Boots On The Ground' At Kandi [View article]
    Actually I believe that the JV got paid the Central Government subsidy as the car seller. ZZY gets paid from the Municipal subsidy which should be roughly the same amount but hasn't arrived yet
    Dec 7, 2014. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: 'Boots On The Ground' At Kandi [View article]
    It would appear to me that your first concern really centers around the issue that we do not know if the relationship between the JV and ZZY has been negotiated to inappropriately benefit one entity at the expense of the other. That would be a legitimate concern if not for common ownership.
    I have little doubt that when the time is right, as in just before a ZZY IPO or ZZY having positive earnings and/or cash flow that the JV will exercise its option to own 70% of ZZY to the benefit of KNDI shareholders. Thus those of us with an investment in KNDI will own 100% of KNDI, 50% of the JV and 35% of ZZY and if management has the option to make what I would assume would be wise decisions in allocating revenue, profits, etc. between the JV or ZZY I would consider that an added benefit to shareholders not the dark fraud you seem obsessed with.
    I hope you now understand the benefits of not owning 100% or even 70% percentage initially and the need to incentivize the Investors in ZZY with a continuing 30% interest, which given their Private Equity nature i feel confident they would sell at the right time for the right price so we might end up owning 100% of ZZY as well.
    I am a direct investor in a number of private entities with multiple operating entities and though common (identical) ownership is not always achievable (not everyone can or chooses to invest at the same level in each entity) we are careful, as with the JV and ZZY relationship, to have sufficient commonality of ownership that conflicts of interest between the entities are not feared and do not occur.
    Your second concern seems to be whether the JV or ZZY can each sell to or buy from other manufacturers or distributors. Given what you would call, and I would agree with, the non-arms length nature of the agreement between them I would consider this future flexibility an asset and not a liability. However, given the clear benefit to the JV of having management control over ZZY whose evolving infrastructure I would consider a strategic competitive advantage, the decision to open this competitive and not easily copied distribution infrastructure to other manufacturers would come only when the benefit to ZZY, which we would own, outweighs the loss to the JV or regulatory authorities required it (at which point we would have truly succeeded).
    Finally, your continuing concern with transparency is a valid concern however and will only be resolved by time, success and the adoption of more Western processes. I believe I have a greater clarity regarding the nature of the China economy and its ability to undertake and achieve change at a speed and scale unmatchable by any other economy including our own than you do and whereas you see and fear JNDI being a part of some cabal of failed and perhaps fraudulent companies I see it as being a part of an almost inexorable adoption of EV's in China that will eventually be competitive in numbers if not overwhelm the ICE industry and that means a million EVs sold each month not a few thousand.
    BTW, my willingness to respond to your concerns is a reflection of my high regard for your intelligence though I truly doubt your motives. I say this because if you had an open mind and the intelligence I ascribe to you, your position on KNDI would have evolved by now - be skeptical but be too skeptical at your own peril.
    Dec 6, 2014. 03:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: 'Boots On The Ground' At Kandi [View article]
    Let me try to explain the JV relationship with ZZY and its business model as I see it with some Western based analogies and probably some inaccuracies.
    GM, Ford and other car manufacturers sell a significant number of cars to intermediaries who then rent them to consumers on a daily basis. Think Hertz and Avis but also corporate fleets (who don't rent but provide them to staff). You can also think of local car dealers who buy from the manufacturers who then lease them to individuals.
    Think of ZZY as the equivalent of a Hertz renting on a daily basis to those who walk into their facilities (flat or vertical) and according to the Boots group and their videos business there is quite good. Then think of ZZY also leasing their vehicles for multi-year periods to governmental and corporate entities who then re-lease or rent them to their citizens or corporate staff but it is the governmental or corporate entity that actually pays ZZY. So when ZZY takes delivery of a vehicle it is an actual sale by the JV for the full cost of the vehicle though ZZY then gets reimbursed by daily or monthly payments but big time by the national government and municipal subsidies which are often delayed..
    Now why do we have a ZZY, why not just have KNDI or the JV handle that aspect? Because like a lot of infrastructure rich start ups (think FEDEX or the Cable companies you get your TV signal from) they will have many years of negative earnings and even more negative cash flow as they invest in infrastructure and amortize that infrastructure, but also because they buy an item (a car) and then receive monthly payments over time, while slowly, or quickly, getting to a critical mass of clients and a revenue flow that covers their infrastructure or up front expenses.
    Neither Kandi or Geely want to have those early year losses (think investment) on their corporate books and certainly Kandi doesn't have the funds even if they wanted to so the JV didn't have that option.
    By bringing in sophisticated investors, the two Investment backers of ZZY they off load these capital needs and negative earnings. ZZY in turn is putting their capital to work and getting a fair return on that capital from the subsidy payments and either the daily rentals or long term lease payments.
    In the US this negative cash flow would be mitigated by having a third party bank or lease financing entity provide the bulk of the purchase cost and receive the monthly fees as well as the residual value at the end of the lease but if it helps think of ZZY as playing that role as well.
    Presumably the ZZY Investors have other profitable investments so the early losses (really an investment) in ZZY could serve to mitigate their taxes, whereas for Geely and Kansi it would dramatically reduce their earnings and the PPS by a multiple of the losses.
    Now the kickers for both parties is that the JV presumably has an option to purchase up to 70% of ZZY when the time is right and the two Investor Groups retain 30% while gaining a fair IRR on their investment. And then the bigger bonus for both entities is that when ZZY goes public the JV (think KNDI shareholders) and the ZZY Investors both find another pot of gold (which is why I called the early losses by ZZY as an investment above).
    Presumably the ZZY Investors are financial types not operational types so in fact, it is probably an operational team from the JV that actually directs and manages ZZY.
    As I understand it the Government subsidy goes to the manufacturer (JV) whereas the municipal subsidy goes to the buyer (ZZY). As the municipal subsidies have been very much delayed that might be an explanation as to why the JV has not received certain funds from ZZY as of the last Qtr and of course cars where manufactured during the Qtr by the JV but not sold or delivered to ZZY while awaiting the September 10% tax break.
    Okay, all of this can seem complex because it is and conspiracy theory types or skeptics can and have created doubt because of it but if you understand the benefits you can see that the structure they have adopted makes a great deal of sense.
    Finally, a comment on their model of daily or monthly convenient rental made even more convenient by Alipay. If you don't live in a large urban environment like NYC (9 million vs. the same number in second and third tier China cities) you may not be able to appreciate that many perhaps the vast majority of central city residents don't need a car on a daily basis and garage rental which can be hundreds of dollars a month along with high insurance rates (and less frequent usage increasing the daily cost) makes the cost of ownership almost prohibitive so that daily rental without garage or insurance costs (okay built in for the day) is extremely attractive.
    I hope this helps those with an open mind
    Dec 6, 2014. 01:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: 'Boots On The Ground' At Kandi [View article]
    Thank you Stevo56 both for your kind comment and more importantly for being part of Boots on the ground.
    I too have been to China a number of times starting in the mid 90's and the progress is incredible and yes those 28 to 33 story residential towers in the hundreds in every major city are incredible as is the skyline of Pudong (part of Shanghai).
    But perhaps all of that is more relevant if we use it as a reference to the reader who has not been there to try to convey how effective the government and the private sector can be when they decide to tackle an issue.
    I won't go into detail about how terrible the rail system was when I first visited China except to use that reference to being terrible as a starting point. Just a few years back China decided to build a high speed rail system (200+ mph) from scratch. In only seven years they built approximately 7,500 miles of high speed rail lines and equipped them with their own home built trains. To put that in perspective, the rest of the world (mostly Japan, Germany, France and Spain) has less than 7,000 miles combined and the USA has a grand total of 0, yes zero. You guys probably took one of their trains from Hangzhou to Shanghai and it was so smooth you had no idea of its speed.
    They have also created the world's largest solar panel industry and, I believe the largest wind turbine and battery industries.
    I say all of this so those who don't know China well can appreciate that when the Central Chinese government signals to it's own entities and the private sector (okay semi-private) that they want something done they are capable of getting it done at incredible speed and scale.
    BTW a Chinese railroad track builder and a Chinese train manufacturer are considered to be the leading candidates to build what might be our first high speed rail system between San Francisco and Los Angeles and then on to San Diego and of course they supply most of our solar panels so home grown capabilities developed in China do migrate to the rest of the world quite successfully.
    Let me end with a question, did the Boots team get any impression as to the possible eventual buyout of the JV or Kandi by Geely which has always seemed to me a real possibility.
    Hal
    Dec 5, 2014. 01:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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