The Mysterious Case of Apple's Missing Growth [View article]
Very interesting and helpful article. Apple seems to be shelving money in all possible ways besides its enormous cash position. Since they do not seem to plan getting a lot of cash back to shareholders and in that case I wonder if they are up to something really big? Any clues or guesses?
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
MCD is a big company and like for PG the management needs to be shaken because its getting too comfortable at the top. The comment on the new normal is a pure excuse from the top. When shareholders and clients observe that service has gone down the situation is indeed worrisome. Hopefully the company can turn this around. I do not think the company is undervalued because they deserve lower prices as long as this situation continues. The time to buy more is when the observers see something positive is being done about it.
6 Undervalued Growth-Oriented Dividend Stocks Worth Considering Regardless Of The Fiscal Cliff Debacle [View article]
ABT is a bit tricky to buy now because it will divide itself into 2 companies ABT new and AbbVie as of january 1st. Holders of ABT on 12.12.12 will get a share of AbbVie in january. The new share is treated as an extraordinary dividend from a tax point of view, I have been told but do not know for sure.
2 Value Propositions Located At The Heart Of The Tech Sector [View article]
Microprocessors are a very competitive business with short technology driven cycles. Very difficult for an investor. Intel has gone through many of these cycles and ended up and still is king of the heap. If you want to invest in this type of business ( yes the question should be posed ) it is probably good to put your money with the most experienced company in the business and when this company is available at a low price. I agree with the author that below the 20 USD there is probably sufficient margin of safety to absorb a large part of the risk.
Using Credit Put Spread To Buy Medtronic With 9.47% Discount [View article]
I still do not get this type of reasoning. Either you are interested to buy and own MDT at a certain price or not as an investor. If your price is for some good reason 39 than the best thing to do is to wait until you can buy the stock for 39 ! The probability for that to happen in the future is likely better as with this credit put spread and it will cost you less. If you just want to play around a share price of 39 without a good reason than you are speculating on making some small profit which is much less probable and more costly. Lottery tickets always look cheap.
Does Wells Fargo Deserve The Attention It Is Receiving From Warren Buffett? [View article]
Thank you for the interesting analysis. In a book about Buffet I read that he liked to look at the ROA to see if a bank was managed well. When I look to banks now I always look to this return and for most banks it is below 1 which is not good. Buffet considers anything close to 1 to be ok and anything clear above 1 to be very good. WFG is about 1.3 while almost all banks are well below 1. The only other bank that I found that scored even better was AXP with about 3.5 as an ROA. AXP is another preferred holding of WB.
Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too [View article]
I agree with the author that it is impossible to value AAPL using the DCF or the P/E ratio's and the volatility of E and P are the cause of this. I would however like to say that these valuation methods are never very effective, especially for growth companies. I do not understand why Mr. Buffet is being featured here in excess because he has stated clearly that these companies are difficult to value. I suggest therefore that the work and methods of Philip A Fisher is much more applicable to the AAPL case as mentioned already by Osvolt007t. So to figure out if AAPL is worth buying one cannot rely on a numbers game but one has to study the company, the competitors and the management team and the people as well as the customers. If you do that ( P.Fisher uses 15 qualitative points), than the outcome is very positive and it is hard to find a company that is scoring that well. Steve Jobs has been a great guy and a visionary entrepreneur but what Apple is realising as a company is the result of a very good team that has been build by him. Also with respect to people, he wanted the best. It is also inevitable, even for the best company to confront a contemporary problem from time to time and this offers often an opportunity to invest more or get on the bandwagon. Every investor has to make his own analysis and decide wether to invest or not at the current price level. The opinion of others are useful to read but they remain opinions. Before investing one should be convinced and satisfied with its own opinion before buying anything.
Apple Vs. Microsoft: The Tide Is Turning [View article]
Stock prices go up and down. Short term volatility has no real meaning. The thing that will move longer term AAPL stock prices are earnings. I believe that earnings and earnings growth look incredibly good for AAPL. They also look good for GOOG but not so good as advertising is more difficult on mobile devices/ small screens. AAPL revenue is not coming from advertising, it has a different business model. The business model of MSFT is starting to become outdated in my opinion and W8 is not going to change that.
5 Basic Materials Stocks With Growing 3%+ Dividends [View article]
I looked at these companies in some more detail. They are very cyclical and they have low profit margins low ROE, ROC,ROA. Their past has been very volatile.
Teva's New CEO: A Positive Catalyst Going Forward [View article]
Very good article, thank you. To Jimmy46 : The drug business is not a commodity business and this also applies to Generic drugs. It is a very complex and regulated business with government price controls in many counties.
The Death Of Buy-And-Hold Investing Has Been Greatly Exaggerated [View article]
Very good article that make the distinction between stock-price performance and stock purchase price because the buy low (never high) is a fundamental part of investing. It also means that valuation is extremely important. The historical high and low P/E ranges of quality companies with a durable competitive position should give you the initial information whether a company is undervalued, fairly priced or expensive to buy. Those who buy at the top and sell when companies get cheap should not complain about bad performance or declare a proven investment strategy dead.
XOM is ok for now and many years to come. Enjoy the dividend and the growth in share price as oil prices will creep up and be volatile from time to time so you can load up on XOM if you need too or average down in invested capital per share.
Consumer Staples: Undervalued Sector With Above-Average Yield [View article]
Very good article on a sector that has received limited attention. I agree with most of the arguments brought forward and are myself a strong advocate for consumer staples. It remains however important to point out that only those companies that have the best future competitive positions will produce the best results. Size and leadership market shares as well as financial strength and profit margins are ways to help select the best ones. ROC and ROE also. Buying them at a reasonably good price remains the most important decision criteria! Today the sector with some exceptions seems rather undervalued due to the fear of higher raw material prices. The most competitive companies will indeed be able to pass these price on to the consumer.
The Mysterious Case of Apple's Missing Growth [View article]
Apple seems to be shelving money in all possible ways besides its enormous cash position.
Since they do not seem to plan getting a lot of cash back to shareholders and in that case I wonder if they are up to something really big? Any clues or guesses?
A Complete Financial Analysis Of Apple [View article]
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
The comment on the new normal is a pure excuse from the top.
When shareholders and clients observe that service has gone down the situation is indeed worrisome. Hopefully the company can turn this around. I do not think the company is undervalued because they deserve lower prices as long as this situation continues. The time to buy more is when the observers see something positive is being done about it.
6 Undervalued Growth-Oriented Dividend Stocks Worth Considering Regardless Of The Fiscal Cliff Debacle [View article]
Holders of ABT on 12.12.12 will get a share of AbbVie in january.
The new share is treated as an extraordinary dividend from a tax point of view, I have been told but do not know for sure.
2 Value Propositions Located At The Heart Of The Tech Sector [View article]
Intel has gone through many of these cycles and ended up and still is king of the heap.
If you want to invest in this type of business ( yes the question should be posed ) it is probably good to put your money with the most experienced company in the business and when this company is available at a low price. I agree with the author that below the 20 USD there is probably sufficient margin of safety to absorb a large part of the risk.
Using Credit Put Spread To Buy Medtronic With 9.47% Discount [View article]
Either you are interested to buy and own MDT at a certain price or not as an investor. If your price is for some good reason 39 than the best thing to do is to wait until you can buy the stock for 39 !
The probability for that to happen in the future is likely better as with this credit put spread and it will cost you less.
If you just want to play around a share price of 39 without a good reason than you are speculating on making some small profit which is much less probable and more costly. Lottery tickets always look cheap.
Does Wells Fargo Deserve The Attention It Is Receiving From Warren Buffett? [View article]
In a book about Buffet I read that he liked to look at the ROA to see if a bank was managed well. When I look to banks now I always look to this return and for most banks it is below 1 which is not good. Buffet considers anything close to 1 to be ok and anything clear above 1 to be very good. WFG is about 1.3 while almost all banks are well below 1. The only other bank that I found that scored even better was AXP with about 3.5 as an ROA. AXP is another preferred holding of WB.
Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too [View article]
I do not understand why Mr. Buffet is being featured here in excess because he has stated clearly that these companies are difficult to value.
I suggest therefore that the work and methods of Philip A Fisher is much more applicable to the AAPL case as mentioned already by Osvolt007t.
So to figure out if AAPL is worth buying one cannot rely on a numbers game but one has to study the company, the competitors and the management team and the people as well as the customers.
If you do that ( P.Fisher uses 15 qualitative points), than the outcome is very positive and it is hard to find a company that is scoring that well.
Steve Jobs has been a great guy and a visionary entrepreneur but what Apple is realising as a company is the result of a very good team that has been build by him. Also with respect to people, he wanted the best.
It is also inevitable, even for the best company to confront a contemporary problem from time to time and this offers often an opportunity to invest more or get on the bandwagon.
Every investor has to make his own analysis and decide wether to invest or not at the current price level. The opinion of others are useful to read but they remain opinions. Before investing one should be convinced and satisfied with its own opinion before buying anything.
Apple Vs. Microsoft: The Tide Is Turning [View article]
Short term volatility has no real meaning.
The thing that will move longer term AAPL stock prices are earnings.
I believe that earnings and earnings growth look incredibly good for AAPL. They also look good for GOOG but not so good as advertising is more difficult on mobile devices/ small screens. AAPL revenue is not coming from advertising, it has a different business model.
The business model of MSFT is starting to become outdated in my opinion and W8 is not going to change that.
5 Basic Materials Stocks With Growing 3%+ Dividends [View article]
They are very cyclical and they have low profit margins low ROE, ROC,ROA.
Their past has been very volatile.
How To Turn Coca Cola Into An Investment Machine [View article]
Teva's New CEO: A Positive Catalyst Going Forward [View article]
To Jimmy46 : The drug business is not a commodity business and this also applies to Generic drugs. It is a very complex and regulated business with government price controls in many counties.
The Death Of Buy-And-Hold Investing Has Been Greatly Exaggerated [View article]
Where Will Exxon Mobil Be In 2040? [View article]
Consumer Staples: Undervalued Sector With Above-Average Yield [View article]
I agree with most of the arguments brought forward and are myself a strong advocate for consumer staples. It remains however important to point out that only those companies that have the best future competitive positions will produce the best results. Size and leadership market shares as well as financial strength and profit margins are ways to help select the best ones. ROC and ROE also. Buying them at a reasonably good price remains the most important decision criteria! Today the sector with some exceptions seems rather undervalued due to the fear of higher raw material prices. The most competitive companies will indeed be able to pass these price on to the consumer.