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COBeeMan

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  • "The issue isn't if the Fed exits, it's a question of whether they exit way earlier than expected," American Capital (AGNC) CIO Gary Kain tells Bloomberg, feeling his portfolio is better positioned now than in Q1, when higher rates took a chunk out of book value. The Fed will be "extremely slow" in its withdrawal, says KBW's Mike Widner. "That spells an environment that actually gets better for the mREITs (MORT, REM) before it gets worse." [View news story]
    recent - I ask myself two questions when one of my mREITs have a price decrease: first, will the price/value of the company come back, and then, do I have a better place to put my money? Since I am trying to develop a consistent income portfolio, and I think the asset values and interest spreads will eventually work themselves out, and I am getting a higher dividend, I am keeping that money where it is and letting the dividends buy more. One day I will convert to receiving the dividends as cash, but I'm not there yet and I hope the Fed has exited by then.
    May 20 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: A Little Lower, And Then A Rally [View article]
    ...and including and predicting human emotion and moods in the equation.
    May 19 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "The issue isn't if the Fed exits, it's a question of whether they exit way earlier than expected," American Capital (AGNC) CIO Gary Kain tells Bloomberg, feeling his portfolio is better positioned now than in Q1, when higher rates took a chunk out of book value. The Fed will be "extremely slow" in its withdrawal, says KBW's Mike Widner. "That spells an environment that actually gets better for the mREITs (MORT, REM) before it gets worse." [View news story]
    Change causes uncertainty which causes fear. I am no mREIT expert by any means, so correct me if I am wrong, but it seems to me that the Fed buying MBSs caused the asset values to begin rising. This was good short term for assets already in mREIT portfolios, but was bad long term for mREITs since any new assets would be purchased at inflated prices. Now, if the Fed decreases buying, it will be bad short term for the inflated assets already in mREIT portfolios, but good long term because new assets will be purchased at lower values.

    Then there is the variable caused by recent talk of scrutiny by the gov't of mREITs. Interest rate spreads are yet another variable for mREITs that the Fed will affect at some point!

    Through it all, I peg the extreme changes in mREIT prices on emotions realted to changes in these variables, and short term thinking. I watch mREITs for resulting dips to buy.
    May 19 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Not Lower Because Of A Higher Dollar [View article]
    If gold is a mere commodity, which I don't disagree with, won't producers minimize their sales of it when prices decrease (like now) and wait for higher prices?
    May 19 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Not Lower Because Of A Higher Dollar [View article]
    The price going up or down doesn't indicate intended manipulation. You have to look closer at individual trades. When you see a huge chunk trading during the hours when the volume is usually weakest, someone is trying to effect the price of the asset. When you see this happening at the trade data level as a pattern over weeks or months (so as to be harder to notice since no one is usually watching for that) some manipulation is definitely going on.
    May 18 03:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More sell-side on the mREITS (MORT): Maxim keeps a Buy with $33 PT on AGNC expecting the annual dividend to be maintained at $5/share thanks to $1.08 of undistributed taxable income in the kitty (KBW agrees). Jefferies is cautious, calling AGNC's Q1 tale an example of how even a well-run mREIT can run afoul. "Price and extension risk inherent in agency MBS (NLY, HTS, CYS, CMO, ANH, ARR, WMC) today are risks most investors underestimate." [View news story]
    Buying ARR under $6.40.
    May 6 09:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Ready For The 2013 Obamacare Investment Tax? [View article]
    So do I...knowing only one side doesn't make you an expert.

    http://bit.ly/sqR4tD
    May 6 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Ready For The 2013 Obamacare Investment Tax? [View article]
    There are pros and cons, and it depends if you value the tax incentives or the dividends more. WmH only sees one side of any topic.
    May 5 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Ready For The 2013 Obamacare Investment Tax? [View article]
    For most smaller investors putting MLPs in an IRA is generally not a problem.

    •Some analysts feel it’s inappropriate to put an MLP in an IRA or 401(k). They argue that because the tax benefits are such an important feature of MLPs, this investment should be in a taxable account where the benefits can be realized. They also feel that placing MLP investments in an account where they are subject to UBIT unnecessarily diminishes the return and creates additional complexity.
    •Others argue that because MLPs’ income is so heavily sheltered by deductions like depreciation, taxable income for many retirement accounts may well be below the $1,000 UBIT deduction. They also feel that the income aspect of the MLP is the most important benefit, and that even if the retirement account does have to pay tax, the cash distributions will still provide a highly desirable return on an after-tax basis.

    Bullets copied from: http://bit.ly/sqR4tD
    May 3 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Ready For The 2013 Obamacare Investment Tax? [View article]
    They have to tax the people who have money
    when they have the money
    because that is where the money is.

    However, I often wonder what happened to the income averaging rule that helped people not pay as much in taxes when they have a windfall income in one year.
    May 3 04:42 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Pullback Makes These 2 Stocks With 11% Yields Worth Buying Now [View article]
    That is how REITs work, because of REIT tax rules and how they have to operate. You won't get both a high dividend AND price appreciation in the same stock normally. There is high risk with REITs and you have to watch for signs (not rumors) telling you to get out, but that is another tradeoff.
    Apr 28 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Get Suckered By This Popular High-Yield Investment [View article]
    Yes, eventually, the Fed rate will be raised. It is inevitable, as a control over inflation. The question is, when? My answer is not until after they stop buying assets, and even then, only when inflation is threatening.
    Apr 28 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Get Suckered By This Popular High-Yield Investment [View article]
    The author is basically saying that the price of the stocks will decrease when the Fed raises rates. I agree that this will happen in the long term, especially from the initial panic, and I plan to take advantage of it. However, before that step is taken the Fed will slow or stop buying assets which will make mREITs more profitable in the shorter term. I'm currently planning on taking advantage of that! Timing is important currently with mREITs.
    Apr 27 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Get Suckered By This Popular High-Yield Investment [View article]
    also, rates won't be raised, even a little bit, until AFTER the Fed stops buying assets, which will help the mREITs. Even when rates are eventually raised, it will likely be slowly over time so as not to upset the recovery.
    Apr 27 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Facing Attack From Regulators [View article]
    ...and comparisons to other business model categories related to real estate in any way! I suspect there is an underlying preconceived goal that they are trying to justify.
    Apr 25 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
159 Comments
239 Likes